Podcast
Predictable with Stu Burguiere
Hosted by Predictable Media · EN
Predictable with Stu Burguiere is a smarter, more useful way to follow the news, using prediction markets to break down what’s happening, why it’s happening and where it’s likely going next.
59episodes
Episodes
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Behind-the-Scenes of Our MASSIVE Texas Victory
1w ago00:48:24Tap to summarizeFollowing his live reaction last night to the Ken Paxton-John Cornyn primary election results in Texas, Stu Burguiere breaks down a WILD election night which led to HUGE payoffs in the markets. Plus, a recap of the exclusive Kalshi event Stu attended and what the future looks like for one of the most impressive prediction market lynchpins in the entire community. Plus, Stu looks at some of President Trump’s recent comments regarding the prediction market industry and unveils his new Pantheon of Victory! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcribe →How We Hit a 1000% Profit Position! | Ken Paxton Texas Prediction Markets
2w ago00:47:08Tap to summarizeWe just hit a massive 1000% one-day profit position in the political prediction markets! In this episode of Predictable with Stu Burguiere, we break down how the Ken Paxton race in Texas created an incredible value opportunity and how we capitalized on it. If you are looking to understand the mechanics behind political betting, election forecast modeling, and finding massive inefficiencies in the markets, this deep dive is for you. We look at the data, the shifting political landscape in Texas, and where the next big market opportunities are hiding. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcribe →Total Victory! Primary Election Investments Pay Off BIG
2w ago00:46:54Tap to summarizeStu Burguiere breaks down his investment victories from yesterday’s various primary elections across the nation and shows why education and preparation can lead to big payoffs when operating in election prediction markets. Then, “The Hollywood in Toto Podcast” host Christian Toto joins to review “Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu,” preview Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” and explain how the Rotten Tomatoes system works — and why understanding it can be profitable in cultural markets. And, a look at how Donald Trump’s long-awaited endorsement of Ken Paxton in Texas could yield some big value opportunities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcribe →Election Investments Galore! Pick Your Primary and Profit!
3w ago00:50:44Tap to summarizeIt’s primary election day in many states across the nation; Stu Burguiere has the advice you need to make sound prediction market investments and walk away with some political profits as the playing field shapes up for November’s midterms. Then, Dan Andros is back with his take on the Thomas Massie primary in Kentucky and former reality star Spencer Pratt’s longshot campaign for mayor of Los Angeles. Plus, Stu looks at some of the ways our wonderful viewers are engaging in the political field and making it work towards their portfolios. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcribe →We Made a GREAT Investment on Cassidy; But What About Massie?
3w ago00:49:17Tap to summarizeThe Trump-led opposition to Bill Cassidy’s reelection yielded big results for those making smart moves in the Louisiana primary prediction markets, but what about Tuesday’s upcoming primary between Thomas Massie and Ed Gallrein in Kentucky? Stu Burguiere previews the race and how to plan for smart investments. Plus, some new developments emerge in the case of potential insider trading regarding the Iran War. And, a look at the rapidly-changing markets for “The Mandalorian & Grogu” as it’s potential Rotten Tomatoes score jumps around the board and a breakdown of the Ronda Rousey - Gina Carano fight on Netflix that made and lost a lot of people a lot of money VERY quickly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcribe →The 10x Trade Hiding in Louisiana
3w ago00:48:18Tap to summarizeTrump has spent four years hunting one Republican senator: Bill Cassidy. Now Cassidy is trading at just 2 cents to survive his own Louisiana primary. But the real opportunity may not be taking a position against Cassidy. It may be on whether Trump-backed Julia Letlow wins outright Saturday night and avoids a runoff entirely. Stu breaks down the Cassidy revenge saga, the market mispricing hiding inside Louisiana’s weird election system, a cross-platform arb opportunity between Polymarket and Kalshi, listener questions on strategy and risk, and one long-shot weekend fight market Stu kinda likes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcribe →The Markets Just Called BS on AOC's Surging Poll Numbers
3w ago00:46:21Tap to summarizeAOC just got one of the biggest 2028 polling headlines yet… but prediction markets barely reacted at all. On today’s Predictable, Stu breaks down why the media may be dramatically overreacting to the latest AOC surge poll — and why traders with actual money on the line don’t seem convinced. Stu digs into the sampling behind the poll, the growing “President AOC?” narrative, and what the Kalshi and Polymarket odds are really signaling about the Democratic field. If the poll was truly a game changer… why didn’t the market move? Plus: AOC’s viral comments about billionaires and “earning” wealth Her eyebrow-raising answer about a possible White House run The latest 2028 Democratic nominee odds Polymarket officially goes fully live in the U.S. And the bizarre anti-Spencer Pratt ad that may actually HELP him The headlines say one thing. The markets may be telling a very different story. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcribe →'Lies': Stu Responds to Critics
4w ago00:49:09Tap to summarizeWhat’s the difference between insider trading and informed trading? Stu responds to the mounting number of lies in the media and politics about prediction markets. And when it comes to prediction markets, is the line a lot blurrier than politicians and the media want to admit? On today’s Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the growing controversy around campaign staffers, political insiders, and prediction market traders cashing in on information advantages during election season. Is this corruption? Or is this exactly how markets are supposed to work? From the NPR report raising eyebrows in Washington to the Senate quietly moving to ban lawmakers from participating in prediction markets, Stu explains why incentives matter more than headlines — and why markets often reveal the truth long before the media does. Plus: Why prediction markets may actually reward transparency The uncomfortable comparison between Congress and market traders The difference between “having information” and illegal insider trading Why some of the loudest critics of prediction markets may have the most to lose Predictable with Stu Burguiere is a smarter way to follow the news. We break down the biggest stories using prediction markets to show what’s actually likely to happen, not just what people are saying. Understand the incentives. Spot the mispricing. Take a position. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcribe →Prediction Markets are Sending a VERY Different Midterm Signal
4w ago00:56:42Tap to summarizeOn today’s Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the redistricting wars erupting across America and explains why the market reaction may already be going too far. Republicans are gaining structural advantages in key House maps, but are traders mispricing it before the dust has even settled? Stu walks through the Virginia court decision he saw coming, the shifting House outlook, and the key price levels where he may look to re-enter Democratic House positions after the recent selloff. Plus, we do a 2028 presidential market draft featuring top market options to be on the lookout for as 2028 chatter continues. Stu explains the difference between candidates who can actually win and candidates whose prices can still surge long before Election Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcribe →Gavin’s Successor? The Markets are Already Moving
May 700:47:21Tap to summarizeCalifornia’s governor race is suddenly getting messy, and the prediction markets are reacting in real time. On today’s episode of Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the latest California gubernatorial debate, including the viral confrontation between Katie Porter and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco that became one of the defining moments of the race. Top issues this time around in CA are sanctuary state policies, men competing in women’s sports, California’s never-ending high-speed rail disaster, and whether frustration with one-party rule is finally creating an opening in the state. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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