Stuff You Should Know – "How Cognitive Biases Work"
Podcast: Stuff You Should Know
Hosts: Josh Clark and Chuck Bryant
Date: February 10, 2026
Episode Theme: An in-depth, humorous, and practical exploration of cognitive biases—the mental shortcuts and blind spots that shape (and often distort) our thinking, decision-making, and worldview.
Episode Overview
In this engaging and accessible episode, Josh and Chuck take listeners on a tour of the fascinating world of cognitive biases: what they are, why our brains rely on these "shortcuts," and the sometimes irrational, even predictable ways they shape human thought. The hosts trace the origins of bias science, break down the most common biases with real-world examples, highlight how marketers, organizations—and even doctors—exploit them, and offer tips for mitigating their impact. The tone is witty, self-deprecating, and conversational, making complex psychology accessible and memorable.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Cognitive Biases: What They Are and Why They Exist
- Homeostasis & Heuristics: Our brains crave efficient thinking and energy-saving shortcuts, called heuristics, to return to a stable ("homeostatic") state [01:22]. But these shortcuts aren’t always accurate, leading to biases.
"You can just kind of use a little shortcut... The problem that comes about though is that with heuristics you're not always right." – Josh [01:42]
- Unconscious vs. Conscious Bias: Most biases work beneath our awareness. Conscious biases can be addressed with effort, but unconscious ones are hardwired and universal [03:20].
2. History and Research Foundations
- Kahneman & Tversky: Israeli psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman revolutionized understanding of human decision-making, launching the influential "heuristics and biases" research program in the 1970s [04:30].
- Thinking, Fast and Slow: Kahneman’s seminal book lays out the "two systems" metaphor: System 1 (fast, intuitive) and System 2 (slow, analytical) [07:22].
- The Stroop Effect: A classic demonstration of System 1 overriding deliberate thinking—reading the color of a word that's printed in a mismatched color (e.g., "red" printed in blue ink) [08:44].
"So what they did was they simply wrote down the names of colors, but they would write down the name of that color in a different color... it's surprisingly difficult to do that." – Chuck [08:44]
3. Catalog of Cognitive Biases
Josh and Chuck guide listeners through the mechanics and practical examples of major biases, noting that many are interconnected.
A. Hindsight Bias [14:10]
- The belief that events were predictable after they happen (“I knew it all along”).
"We can rearrange our memory of how we felt about the event or the outcome... because we have this never ending need to be right." – Josh [14:32]
B. Self-Serving Bias & Fundamental Attribution Error [14:55]
- Self-Serving: We credit our successes to ourselves but blame failures on external forces.
- Attribution Error: We judge others’ misfortunes as character flaws but excuse our own as circumstantial.
“If something good happens to you, it's because you are good... Something bad happens to you. It's external forces.” – Josh [15:03]
C. Anchoring Bias & Decoy Effect [16:41]
- First information received “anchors” later judgments (e.g., price negotiations, restaurant wine lists).
- Decoy Effect: Pricey options make others seem reasonable by comparison.
"This is going to basically prime you in your answer, your decision." – Josh [17:02]
D. Framing Bias [19:01]
- How choices are presented ("90% live" vs. "10% die") changes perception and behavior.
“It’s framed differently to exploit your response.” – Josh [19:27]
E. Availability Heuristic [23:12]
- We overestimate likelihood or importance of events that are easiest to recall—often because they’re vivid or recent (fear of flying after news of a plane crash).
"You're going to rely more on what you can immediately think of..." – Chuck [23:32]
F. Inattentional Blindness [24:34]
- We miss obvious stimuli when focused elsewhere—illustrated by the famous "gorilla video" in the basketball-passing test.
"Half of the people who watch this video... don't notice that in the middle of it, a person in a gorilla suit walks into frame..." – Josh [26:05]
G. Dunning-Kruger Effect [29:37]
- People with low ability at a task overestimate their competence; experts tend to underestimate their relative standing.
“People with little understanding in an area tend to overestimate their ability...” – Chuck [29:58]
H. Gambler’s Fallacy [31:17]
- Mistaken belief that past random events affect future probabilities (e.g., "I'm due to win after losing five times").
“We’re hardwired to find patterns... it's a way to navigate the world.” – Josh [32:49]
I. Base Rate Fallacy [33:20]
- Ignoring statistics ("base rates") in favor of anecdotal or specific information (e.g., guessing someone is a personal trainer just because they're fit, ignoring that far more people are teachers).
“You're ignoring the base rate... even though statistically it's much likelier...” – Josh [33:32]
J. Mere Exposure Effect / Illusory Truth Effect [34:51]
- Simply seeing/hearing something repeatedly makes us like it more—or believe it, even if it's false.
"Repeated exposure to a lie causes you to eventually believe in it..." – Josh [35:29]
K. Confirmation Bias [36:13]
- Seeking, interpreting, and remembering information that confirms our pre-existing beliefs, while ignoring conflicting evidence.
"We tend to take our initial ideas... and look for information that supports those and discard information that doesn't support it." – Josh [39:34]
- Illustrated by Peter Wason's 2-4-6 rule experiment: people test only evidence that confirms their theory, not evidence that could refute it [36:18–38:51].
4. Behavioral Economics: How Biases Influence Markets and Decisions [45:39]
- Kahneman and Tversky’s work revolutionized economics, showing people are not rational actors but "predictably irrational."
- Prospect Theory: Loss aversion—losses hurt more than equivalent gains feel good. E.g., preferring to keep a lottery ticket rather than swap it, even with extra cash offered [48:45].
- We make irrational economic decisions based on how options are framed or by overrating rare events [49:05].
- Example: Driving extra for a $10 T-shirt discount, but not for the same discount on a $20,000 car [50:00].
“We make all sorts of irrational decisions that very frequently run counter to our own best interests.” – Josh [46:40]
5. The Pepsi Paradox: Cognitive Bias in Action [20:11, 42:54]
- Blind taste tests show people prefer Pepsi, but they claim to prefer Coke—demonstrating branding’s huge power over perception.
- fMRI studies: When drinking "Coke," people’s brains light up with reward and nostalgia—brand associations override actual taste.
“Coke's been making their way leaning on creating a brand that people identify with... even though they actually like the taste of Pepsi better.” – Chuck [44:56]
6. Biases in High-Stakes Fields: Medicine & Forensics [52:27]
- Confirmation, anchoring, and outcome biases affect even doctors—anchoring on initial lab data, or attributing patient responses to treatments without sufficient evidence.
“Rather than, say, being presented with a really high price for a bottle of wine... this can be like your first lab work comes back, and that forms the anchoring biased impression of your condition.” – Josh [53:35]
- Forensic science and eyewitness identification are vulnerable to similar problems.
7. Can We Do Anything About Biases?
- Awareness isn’t enough – just knowing about biases doesn’t stop them [55:57].
"It's like you're aware that you have an unconscious bias. It doesn't make you understand the bias..." – Josh [55:57]
- Tips for Mitigation:
- Slow down: Delay big decisions; seek more or contradictory information [56:10].
- Write down your expectations before outcomes, then compare after [56:54].
- Practice "Bayesian reasoning": Weigh probability instead of certainty [57:33].
- Adopt a growth mindset: Accept and learn from mistakes [58:36].
- Watch out for marketing tricks like artificial scarcity and social proof [58:52].
- New research: Even AI can develop cognitive biases by relying on heuristics [59:56].
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On feeling like a "dummy" when learning about biases:
"This is a frustrating episode because I feel like the title could be Cognitive Biases: Everything you think you know is wrong." – Chuck [02:48]
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On universality:
"All humans are dummies as far as cognitive biases go... it's hardwired into us." – Josh [03:03]
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On confirmation bias and belief defense:
"We usually attach our identity or build our identity around our beliefs. It's who we are. So it's like we're being personally attacked." – Josh [40:22]
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On Dunning-Kruger and pop culture:
"It became kind of viral because... people still like it because it's a good way to put other people down." – Josh [29:37]
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On economic irrationality:
“We make all sorts of irrational decisions that very frequently run counter to our own best interests.” – Josh [46:40]
Important Timestamps
| Time | Segment/Topic | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------| | 01:22 | Why our brains use mental shortcuts (heuristics) | | 04:30 | Kahneman & Tversky’s foundational research | | 07:22 | "Thinking, Fast and Slow" - the two-system model | | 08:44 | The Stroop Effect explained | | 14:10 | Hindsight bias | | 14:55 | Self-serving bias & fundamental attribution error | | 16:41 | Anchoring bias & the decoy effect | | 19:01 | Framing bias | | 23:12 | Availability heuristic | | 24:34 | Inattentional blindness: the ‘gorilla video’ | | 29:37 | The Dunning-Kruger Effect | | 31:17 | Gambler’s fallacy | | 33:20 | Base rate fallacy | | 34:51 | Mere exposure and illusory truth effects | | 36:13 | Confirmation bias & the Wason 2-4-6 experiment | | 45:39 | Behavioral economics & prospect theory | | 52:27 | Biases in medicine and high-stakes decisions | | 55:35 | What can we do about our own cognitive biases? | | 58:52 | Examples of marketing exploitation of bias | | 59:56 | AI showing signs of cognitive bias |
Final Thoughts & Takeaways
Josh and Chuck make clear: cognitive biases are not a sign of stupidity, but a price of being human. They're a byproduct of brains evolved to make quick (not always correct) judgments under uncertainty. The episode invites listeners to recognize, laugh at, and mitigate these thinking traps—while cautioning that even self-awareness doesn't grant immunity.
Josh:
"This is fun, Chuck. I'm glad you…"
Chuck:
"Yeah, I like these."
For Listeners
This episode is a must for anyone who's ever wondered, "Why did I think that was a good idea?" or wants to build their defenses against marketers, media bubbles, and their own all-too-human brain. Josh and Chuck deliver complex psychology with empathy and humor, grounded in both science and real-world examples.