SPECIAL EPISODE: Chasing Basketball Heaven from 30 for 30

Summary

Chasing Basketball Heaven: A 30 for 30 Special Episode Summary

Podcast Title: Sunday Mornings with Matt and Myron
Episode Title: SPECIAL EPISODE: Chasing Basketball Heaven from 30 for 30
Release Date: July 30, 2025
Hosts: Nick Olschuler and Rich Levine
Guests: Dale Ellis, Martin Manley (voiced by Craig Kilborne), Fred Hickman

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1. Introduction to the Story

The episode opens with Preeti Varadhan introducing the 15th season of the 30 for 30 podcast series, emphasizing that the story unfolds across six episodes, each revealing unexpected twists. "This story is a journey. I promise," she notes (00:00).

Nick Olschuler and Rich Levine segue into the narrative of Martin Manley, a "little known genius" whose pioneering ideas on basketball statistics would eventually reshape the game. They hint at Manley's enigmatic disappearance, leaving behind only a website, setting the stage for a deep dive into his life and legacy.

2. Martin Manley’s Vision and Background

Martin Manley is portrayed as an eccentric yet brilliant statistician obsessed not with the on-court action but with the underlying numbers that drive basketball's evolution. His synesthesia—a condition where numbers appear in vivid colors—fuels his unique perspective on the game. rich reveals, "He believed if you weren't maximizing the potential of every single moment, you were wasting it" (01:32).

Manley's ultimate mission: to shift basketball towards greater efficiency and increased three-point shooting, a vision that was ahead of its time.

3. Early NBA and the Three-Point Shot

The hosts provide historical context by tracing the NBA's humble beginnings. Initially, basketball lacked the three-point line, focusing instead on physical post-play. "The game was more ultimate Frisbee than what we know today," Rich explains (07:27).

4. Attempts at Introducing the Three-Point Line

The narrative highlights early experimental attempts to introduce the three-point line. In 1935, the NCAA introduced the three-second rule to discourage players from lingering near the hoop, indirectly promoting spacing. However, it wasn't until the American Basketball League (ABL) in 1961 that the first professional three-point line was tested, albeit briefly before the league folded (12:18).

5. The ABA and the Three-Point Revolution

The American Basketball Association (ABA), founded in 1967, reignited the three-point conversation by adopting a vibrant triple-colored ball and introducing the three-point line. Players like Julius "Dr. J" Erving and George Gervin showcased the potential of long-range shooting, making threes a cornerstone of the ABA's appeal. "The three point line awarding 50% more points," Rich observes (14:17), underscoring the strategic advantage it provided.

6. The Merge and the NBA’s Reluctance

Despite the ABA's innovations, the NBA was resistant to adopting the three-point line during the initial merger in 1976. Influential figures like Red Auerbach opposed it, fearing it would disrupt the established style of play. Consequently, the three-point shot remained an anomaly, with attempts to integrate it failing to gain traction (14:52).

7. The 1979 NBA Season and the Arrival of Magic & Bird

1979 stands out as a pivotal year for the NBA. Fresh out of college, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird entered the league, rekindling interest in the sport. Their rivalry brought unparalleled excitement, helping the NBA recover from declining ratings. However, 1979 also marked the NBA's cautious flirtation with the three-point line, which was reintroduced on a one-year trial basis. "It was like the great experiment," Brian Taylor reflects (22:34).

8. The First NBA Three-Point Game

The first official three-pointer in NBA history was made by Chris Ford of the Boston Celtics during the 1979 All-Star Game, overshadowing the debut of Larry Bird. Despite its historic nature, the three-point shot was seldom used by the Celtics that season, contrasting sharply with today's prolific three-point shooting. "For that whole season, Boston barely attempted 400 threes. In 2025, they took nearly 4,000," Rich highlights (17:28).

9. Brian Taylor’s Contribution

Brian Taylor emerges as the first NBA player to lead the league in three-point shooting during the inaugural season of the NBA three-point line. A former ABA player and teammate of Julius Erving, Taylor understood the strategic value of long-range shooting. "I figured thinking about it in terms of what a 42% equivalent would be for a two-point shot, and it's up there," Taylor explains, underscoring his analytical approach (20:08).

Under coach Gene Shue's encouragement, Taylor embraced the three-point shot, despite later facing opposition from coach Paul Silas, who preferred traditional post play. Taylor's pioneering efforts laid the groundwork for future generations of three-point specialists (21:07).

10. Dale Ellis and the Evolution of the Three-Point Shot

Dale Ellis, another trailblazer, further advanced the three-point movement. Initially skeptical of the shot, Ellis discovered his proficiency through one-on-one practices with Derek Harper, a renowned defender. "And coaches saw me shoot threes. They had no idea that I could face the basket and pull up from that distance and shoot a three," Ellis recounts (32:12).

Ellis's performance earned him the Most Improved Player award and a spot in the 1989 All-Star Game, where he won the three-point shootout. His success demonstrated the viability and strategic importance of the three-point shot, influencing the NBA's offensive strategies (33:33).

11. Martin Manley’s Moment of Opportunity

The climax of the episode centers around Martin Manley's appearance at the 1989 NBA All-Star Weekend in Houston. Positioned between success and failure, Manley encounters Dale Ellis during a pivotal moment. Broadcasted by Fred Hickman, Manley presented his groundbreaking ideas on basketball efficiency to a national audience. "Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball," Hickman proclaims (37:29).

Manley's vision, articulated through his book Basketball Heaven, emphasized the mathematical superiority of three-point shooting over traditional two-point strategies. His presentation aimed to convince the NBA and its players of the untapped potential of the three-point shot, setting the stage for a revolution in basketball analytics (40:18).

12. Conclusion and Future Implications

"Chasing Basketball Heaven" concludes by highlighting Martin Manley's duality—his readiness to revolutionize the game while maintaining a humble, unassuming persona. His legacy, paralleled to Bill James in baseball, foreshadows the NBA's eventual embrace of advanced analytics and the three-point revolution that defines modern basketball.

As Nick and Rich reflect, Manley's story is not just about basketball but also about the relentless human pursuit of knowledge and legacy. "Never again would I be in the dark about which player really deserved the headlines," Manley declares (41:55), encapsulating his mission to enlighten both players and fans alike.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Preeti Varadhan (00:00): "This story is a journey. I promise. If you're an episode in and you're making guesses about where this might be going, a lot of you will be wrong. I was wrong."

• Martin Manley (00:49): "I release all rights to this work, making it public domain. Anyone can do with it whatever they wish."

• Rich Levine (01:32): "He believed if you weren't maximizing the potential of every single moment, you were wasting it."

• Nick Olschuler (02:11): "A key part of his vision. We should be shooting more threes."

• Rich Levine (14:17): "The three point line awarding 50% more points. Now players had a reason to move farther away from the basket."

• Brian Taylor (20:13): "It would be worth one hundred and twenty six points."

• Dale Ellis (30:53): "I love Kareem Abdul Jabbar. I was throwing hook shots. It didn't matter what distance I was from the basket."

• Fred Hickman (37:29): "Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball."

• Martin Manley (42:08): "I not only don't want to be the same as everyone else, I don't want to be the same as anyone else. I'm not going to do what everyone else does just because they do it."

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Production Credits

• Hosts: Nick Olschuler and Rich Levine
• Voice of Martin Manley: Craig Kilborne
• Executive Producers: Adam McKay, Claire Slaughter, Bradley Campbell
• Senior Editorial Producer: Preeti Varadhan
• Series Senior Producer: Raghu Manavalan
• Story Editors: Jamie York and Mack Montanden
• Sound Design and Mixing: John Delore
• Theme Song: Alison Leighton Brown
• Show Art: Brian
• Fact Checking: Matt Giles and David Sabino
• Line Producer: Kathryn Sankey
• Associate Producer: Isabella Seaman
• Production Assistants: Diamante McKelvey and Emily Anthony Salas
• Producer: Carolyn Hepburn
• Senior Producers: Marquise Daisy and Gentry Kirby
• Executive Producers for 30: Heather Anderson, Marcia Cook, Ryan Lockhart, Burke Magnus
• Rights and Clearances: Jennifer Thorpe and Cal Griffith
• Developed by: Tara Nadalny and Cynthia Parabello

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Final Thoughts

"Chasing Basketball Heaven" masterfully intertwines the personal journey of Martin Manley with the broader evolution of basketball strategy. By highlighting key historical moments and the contributions of players like Brian Taylor and Dale Ellis, the episode underscores the profound impact of analytics and visionary thinking on the modern game. For basketball enthusiasts and newcomers alike, this episode offers a compelling exploration of how numbers and passion can transform a beloved sport.

Transcript

[Preeti Varadhan]

Hi, I'm Preeti Varadhan and I run 30 for 30 podcasts. You're about to listen to season 15 of our show. It's six episodes and we're giving all of it to you right away because this story is a journey. I promise. If you're an episode in and you're making guesses about where this might be going, a lot of you will be wrong. I was wrong. And that's part of what I love about it. This season we get into the story of a little known genius who predicted the future of basketball, who saw the way numbers would change the game. But then he vanished and all he left was a website. It's a story about basketball, but it's also a story about the wild, reckless things humans do to try to live forever. I hope you enjoy it. We sure loved making it.

[Nick Olschuler]

Some might think it's odd for a man to release the rights of his greatest work, but not Martin Manley.

[Martin Manley]

I, Martin Manley, being the creator and owner of this site, neither hold nor retain any claim or copyright on any part of this. Rather, I release all rights to this work, making it public domain. Anyone can do with it whatever they wish.

[Nick Olschuler]

Martin Manley was definitely odd. He slept every other day for years. He only drank Pepsi for the last decade of his life. He wore a fedora at all times, except in church or if he was sleeping. And he was obsessive about basketball. Not the action, but the stats. For all his eccentricities, Martin also had.

[Rich Levine]

A superpower, but not the cape and tight sort of thing. His power dealt with numbers. Whenever he looked at them, they appeared across the color spectrum from Celtic green to Laker gold. It's called synesthesia. It's a condition where senses are mistaken for each other. So imagine tasting words or seeing sounds. It can trip you up unless you harness it. And once Martin Manley did, he figured out a way to completely change the game of basketball. His vision would increase space and emphasize efficiency. He believed if you weren't maximizing the potential of every single moment, you were wasting it.

[Nick Olschuler]

A key part of his vision. We should be shooting more threes. The predominance of three pointers is the most controversial aspect of today's game. But they were barely taken in the 1980s. Back then, the game was vastly different than the one you see today. It was a bunch of tall guys fighting for position near the hoop, clogging the lane, the space behind the arc. Almost an afterthought.

[Rich Levine]

And that's where the game might have stayed if not for our hero. He saw the numbers behind the game dancing like the colors in a kaleidoscope. It was pure heaven. A basketball heaven. So he made it his mission to elevate the game into the clouds.

[Nick Olschuler]

What's crazy is Martin Manley actually did it. In a way at least. The trouble is his story didn't quite turn out the way he imagined.

[Rich Levine]

But it ended exactly how he planned.

[Nick Olschuler]

And he even got his wish that for someone to tell his story, that would be us.

[Rich Levine]

A couple of writers who lived through the history. Two basketball nerds who can still tell you which old NBA players share our birthdays and used to put ourselves to sleep at night reading the same old NBA almanac year after year.

[Nick Olschuler]

Which is not how you're supposed to use an almanac. So it's safe to say we have our own eccentricities.

[Rich Levine]

We can sympathize with a man like Martin. I mean, in some frightening ways he even relate to him. We trailed this guy for more than a decade. He haunted our thoughts and altered the way we live. He also inspired us to tell his story.

[Nick Olschuler]

So let's get this thing going. Let's talk about where the game is today and how it's miles apart from its origins. And let's trace the history of its changes from the peach basket to the three point line, which isn't even a line. It's an imperfect arc, which is a hell of a metaphor for this story.

[Rich Levine]

From 30 for 30 podcasts. I'm Rich Levine.

[Nick Olschuler]

I'm Nick Olschuler and this is Chasing.

[Rich Levine]

Basketball Heaven, Episode one, the Imperfect Arc.

[Nick Olschuler]

Ryan Reynolds here from intmobile. With the price of just about everything going up, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Thing Mint Mobile Unlimited Premium wireless everybody get 30, 30. Better get 30, better get 20, 20. 20 better get 20, 20. Everybody get 151515 15. Just 15 bucks a month. Sold.

[Nick Olschuler]

Give it a [e-mail] switch upfront payment.

[Preeti Varadhan]

Of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of network's busy taxes and fees extra see mintmobile.com.

[Lowe's Announcer]

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[NBA Commentator]

They do have a timeout. Decide not to use a Curry way down top. Bang bang. Oh, what a shot from Curry.

[Nick Olschuler]

Today, the NBA is massive. It's an industry with $76 billion in media deals and growing markets around the world. But the league's beginnings were humble, the contest just something to stage between hockey games. The NBA evolved slowly on its road to success.

[Rich Levine]

Nick and I have watched a lot of that process play out, both as basketball fans and writers covering the NBA for more than 40 years. Whether sitting in the stands, on press row, at home on the couch, or just about anywhere on our phones, the biggest change we, and I think just about every fan has seen, is the explosion of three pointers. Just to give you an idea, back in 1984 when Nick and I were just adorable little mass holes, the Celtics played the Lakers in the NBA Finals. Over the seven game series, the teams took a total of 42 three pointers. In the 2024 Finals in only a five game series, the Celtics and Mavericks combined to shoot 359 three pointers.

[Nick Olschuler]

In March 2025, the Lakers and newly acquired Luka Doncic came to Boston for a battle with the defending champion Celtics. Rich and I were there.

[Rich Levine]

What did we say? We're going to guess how many three pointers were shot tonight. Did you say 80?

[Nick Olschuler]

I said 80 combined.

[Rich Levine]

Combined 80.

[Nick Olschuler]

I felt a little silly after that. Guess 80 seeming like a ludicrous number. I was very close. They shot 78. Back in that 84 season, the Celtics and Lakers combined to attempt 455 threes. In 2025, both teams combined for nearly 7,000.

[NBA Commentator]

Tatum's long three pointer. That's good. Way downtown is Tatum.

[Nick Olschuler]

Basketball itself is over 100 years old and in the beginning back in the 1890s, there was no three point line. Actually, the game was more ultimate Frisbee than what we know today. The player with the ball wasn't even allowed to move. So no crossovers. And safe to say no dunking either.

[Rich Levine]

Today the big basketball buzzword is efficiency. Back then it was anything but. As many know, the first hoop was a peach basket. But did you know it was over a decade before anyone thought to cut a hole in the bottom after every single score, they had to stop the action. Bring out a ladder. Not very exciting unless you're a aspiring firefighter. Also not very efficient.

[Nick Olschuler]

Love ladders.

[Rich Levine]

I can imagine. Nick, you're the one Guy in the stands who just starts clapping as they bring the ladder out.

[NBA Commentator]

Woo hoo.

[Nick Olschuler]

Back then, height was king and the game seemed trapped in a thicket of very tall people hanging out under the hoop.

[Rich Levine]

So rulemakers began a systematic effort to push them away.

[Nick Olschuler]

In 1935, the NCAA introduced a three second rule.

[Rich Levine]

This stated that if a player dropped their gum on the court but still wanted to chew it, they just had to pick it up very quickly.

[Nick Olschuler]

That's more of an unwritten rule. The one I'm referring to prohibited offensive players from standing in the lane or by the hoop for longer than three seconds at a time. Then in 1944, the college game identified goaltending as an issue and banned it. The rule made it illegal to touch the ball in its downward flight or while just above the rim.

[Rich Levine]

This was a reaction to the early giants of the sport like Oklahoma State seven footer Bob Curland, credited as the first man to dunk in a college game. And also 6 foot 10 DePaul center George Mikan, the first truly dominant big man, and I should say the first to rock a mean pair of Rex specs.

[NBA Commentator]

Mikan is still a man to reckon with as this one hander proves a great star giving his all. After a long layoff.

[Nick Olschuler]

With this new rule, Mikan can no longer jump up and swat away shots falling toward the hoop.

[Rich Levine]

In 1949, two rival professional leagues, the BAA and NBL, merged to form the National Basketball Association. And before long, the NBA had its own Mikan problem.

[NBA Commentator]

It's Minneapolis ball. Shaffer passes to Mikan in the pivot and the big center dribbles in and scores.

[Rich Levine]

In that 1949 season, the big man averaged 27 points a game.

[Nick Olschuler]

And this is the time when only one other player even averaged 20.

[Rich Levine]

And Mikan's Minneapolis Lakers cruised to the first ever NBA title.

[Nick Olschuler]

That next season, teams decided the only way to beat Mikan was to prevent the Lakers from having the ball in the first place. Good strategy, horrible aesthetics.

[Rich Levine]

In one particularly boring game, the Fort Wayne Pistons held the ball for minutes at a time on their way to a 1918 victory over Mikan's Lakers. It's still the lowest scoring game in NBA history.

[Nick Olschuler]

The league took action first. In 1951, they created the Mikan rule, which widened the paint under the hoop from 6 to 12ft. In conjunction with the 3 second rule. The hope was an expanded key would force big men Farther away. In 1954, to combat the stalling tactics, the NBA introduced the 24 second shot clock.

[Rich Levine]

And while the Shot clock did improve the pace of the game. Efforts to move players farther away from the basket didn't have as much impact as they hoped.

[Nick Olschuler]

The reward for scoring from 2ft out or 10ft out or 25ft was all just two points. So you might as well be closer where the shots are easier.

[Rich Levine]

Basically, the NBA needed a spark, a shot of spontaneity. A need that grew steadily as The Celtics won 11 of 13 championships through the late 50s and 60s. Behind 6 foot 10 Bill Russell. A dominant big man and the greatest defensive player the league has ever seen.

[NBA Commentator]

The miraculous Boston Celtics become the NBA champions for the elite seventh time in 13 years.

[Rich Levine]

Defense doesn't really sell tickets. Even prolific scoring gets old. Want an example of NBA popularity in the 60s? When Wilt Chamberlain had his 100 point game in 1962, there were barely 4,000 fans in the stands. The game wasn't televised. There wasn't a single photographer working. The only reason we even have that legendary snapshot of Wilt with the number 100 written on scrap paper is because an off duty AP photographer named Paul Vathis happened to be at the game with his son. With the league growing stale, it was ripe for competition. In 1961, Abe Saperstein, founder of the Harlem Globetrotters, started the American Basketball league.

[Nick Olschuler]

Standing just 5 foot 3, Saperstein is the shortest man in the Basketball hall of Fame. And his idea to compete with the NBA was to empower the smaller player. So he introduced the first professional three point line. Before that season, he walked out onto the court with a roll of tape and measured an arc just shy of 24ft.

[Rich Levine]

Okay, I gotta ask why just shy of 24ft?

[Nick Olschuler]

I will tell you. It's because it just felt right. Honestly, his son Jerry is quoted as saying, they just arbitrarily drew lines. There's no scientific basis. The three and the league didn't catch on though. And the ABL only lasted a season and a half.

[Rich Levine]

However, come 1967, the NBA finally had some serious competition. The American Basketball association, or the aba. Founded on energy and creativity, marketing itself as professional basketball. With the volume turned up, they replaced the standard brown leather ball with the now iconic red, white and blue one. The league would feature high flying stars like Dr. J. Julius Irving and the Iceman George Gervin. They had a slam dunk contest and also a three point line.

[NBA Commentator]

The ABA feels that this extra incentive to shoot from far to out causes the defense to open up, create a more exciting game for the fans. Give the team that's behind an opportunity to close the gap quickly with long three point shot gives a little man.

[Nick Olschuler]

More of a chance to balance up his value in the game compared to the big man.

[Rich Levine]

Sure, he was part gimmick, but in the aba, the three point line was also a selling point. Threes were a particular favorite of league commissioner. Wouldn't you know it? The man with the rec specs, George Mikan. Here's one quote from Mikan in a history of the ABA called loose balls. We called it the home run because the three pointer was exactly that. It brought fans out of their seats.

[Nick Olschuler]

The three point line, that imperfect arc awarding 50% more points. Now players had a reason to move farther away from the basket. And as an added bonus, guys like Irving and Gervin had a suddenly wide open court.

[NBA Commentator]

Julius Irving on the run, Dr. James.

[Nick Olschuler]

With players spread out, the key was harder to clog driving. Lanes opened up and the game flowed in a way it hadn't before. But when the two leagues finally merged in 1976 and that opportunity for change was there, the three point line didn't make the cut.

[Rich Levine]

According to Angela Drosos, then owner of the San Antonio spurs, the NBA moguls didn't want the three point shot. Celtics president Red Auerbach hated it. He had everybody up in arms against the play.

[Nick Olschuler]

And guess what? NBA ratings got worse. By the late 70s, national TV ratings were down 26%. The finals weren't even shown live but on tape delay. And the league's games on CBS were routinely pummeled by boxing. Attendance was down in major markets like New York, Chicago and even la.

[Rich Levine]

And that brings us to what is arguably the most important season in the history of professional basketball. 1979.

[Ryan Reynolds]

We make a lot about Magic Johnson and Larry bird.

[Nick Olschuler]

There are two reasons why 1979 is so vital. One you're familiar with even if you're not a big basketball fan. Magic Johnson and Larry Bird entered the league fresh off their college national championship showdown. These young rival superstars generated a lot of excitement.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Very excited about the big crowd and about being here in Boston for my first time.

[NBA Commentator]

It'll be a big game, a lot.

[Rich Levine]

Of enthusiasts throughout the crowd, and I.

[NBA Commentator]

Just hope the best team wins today.

[Rich Levine]

But what has gone unremembered or more accurately undervalued is the second reason 1979 deserves some love. Three years after the merger, the NBA adopted one of the ABA's marketing ploys on a one year trial basis. The three pointer.

[Nick Olschuler]

It happened on October 12, the first night of the 79 season at the Old Boston Garden. The Celtics hosted the Houston Rockets. Of course we remember it as Bird's first game.

[Rich Levine]

Everyone at the Garden marveled at Larry Bird's every move. But it was a play about eight minutes into the game where his debut was briefly overshadowed by teammate Chris Ford, a floppy haired, mustachioed fella who by.

[Nick Olschuler]

The way, looks a lot more like my geometry teacher than he ever did a professional shooting guard.

[Rich Levine]

Or is it more that a professional shooting guard used to look more like a geometry teacher?

[Ryan Reynolds]

Back over to Archibald.

[NBA Commentator]

Archibald takes once, rolls it up top to ford a step back pop into it. The three point play.

[Nick Olschuler]

The first three pointer in NBA history.

[Rich Levine]

But here's the funny thing. It was Boston's only three point make of the game. The Celtics didn't hit another until a week later. For that whole season, Boston barely attempted 400 threes. In 2025, they took nearly 4,000.

[Nick Olschuler]

So how did we get to where teams are routinely shooting thousands of three pointers a year? Let's start with a look at Brian Taylor, the first player to lead the NBA in threes. Back in the aba, he was Julius Erving's wingman on the nets and saw firsthand how long range threes opened up the court for the doctor. His perspective is something most execs, coaches and players couldn't see.

[Rich Levine]

That first NBA season. With the new line, Taylor hit a league leading 93s for the San Diego Clippers.

[NBA Commentator]

Here's Taylor. Boy, he just sets up automatically outside.

[Rich Levine]

That three point play all by himself. Taylor eclipsed the season three point totals of 19 of 22 NBA teams. And when we caught up with him, first thing he noticed was my hat.

[Brian Taylor]

So you're a Celtic fan, huh?

[Rich Levine]

I am, yes. And wanted to know if I had the old Larry Bird sneakers to match.

[Brian Taylor]

You got the 3/4 black converse on.

[Rich Levine]

Oh man, I wish. I wonder what one of those would go for now.

[Brian Taylor]

I know, right?

[Rich Levine]

It's unbelievable. I mean, I mean you know as well as anyone but you think about the shoes, guys playing now and back then with the Chuck Taylors or those Converse, like there wasn't so much that much support, was there?

[Brian Taylor]

No, there was no support. I wonder how we were able to jump so high. I didn't start jumping high until I got my first pair of Adidas though when I was in high school. So you know, we really were in the vanguard of wearing Nikes in the late 70s. And you had to get a new pair of Nikes almost every game because they spread so quickly.

[Rich Levine]

A first round pick out of Princeton in the 1972 ABA draft. Taylor lived through the initial history of the three point line. Though at first, like everybody else, he barely noticed. What he loved about the ABA was the colorful ball, not the three point line.

[Brian Taylor]

I didn't even care. I didn't even think about the three for several years in the aba. As a matter of fact, I look at my statistics and I didn't shoot a lot of threes.

[Nick Olschuler]

Over his first three years from 1972 to 1975, Taylor attempted less than half a three pointer a game.

[Brian Taylor]

I had to come to grips with whether it was a good shot or not. And so I gave a lot of thought to the mathematics and the analytics of it. And it took me three years to really feel comfortable shooting that shot. Actually the year that I led the ABA in three point shooting, still didn't shoot a lot of threes. I just shot a really high percentage, but I think I shot like 42%.

[Nick Olschuler]

He thought correctly. He shot 42.1 to be exact.

[Brian Taylor]

Yeah, I figured thinking about it in terms of what a 42% equivalent would be for a two point shot, and it's up there, you know, 42% is closing in on 60%.

[Nick Olschuler]

What Taylor means is if he attempted one hundred and three pointers and hit 42, which would be 42%, that would be worth one hundred and twenty six points. If he shot one hundred two pointers and hit 60 for 60%, that would only be worth 120 points. So shooting 42% from three is actually better than shooting 60% from two.

[Rich Levine]

Taylor made the leap to the NBA when the leagues merged in 1976. So when the NBA added the three point line in 1979, he was already familiar with the math. But as he told us, the real reason he led the league in threes was his head coach.

[Brian Taylor]

I was fortunate enough to have the late Gene Shue who was analytic thinking and saw that Brian could shoot from that distance and we'll get one extra point. So he gave me the green light in 1979 to shoot that shot.

[NBA Commentator]

Three up to Taylor and Taylor pulls up three pointer there is good by Taylor. Brian Taylor. Oh, look how far out this shot was. If they had a four pointer that would definitely be it, wouldn't it?

[Rich Levine]

Like Gabe Saperstein, HSU had a vision for improving short players lives. But Brian's next coach is Paul Silas, a former NBA champion and all star whose entire game was about muscle under the basket.

[Brian Taylor]

Paul Silas came in and he's being the big man. He hated to shot. You look at my numbers, I shot probably 50% less.

[Nick Olschuler]

I was gonna ask you about that.

[Brian Taylor]

Because the coach didn't believe in it.

[Nick Olschuler]

That's what it was. Okay, yeah.

[Brian Taylor]

Paul Silas didn't believe in the three point shot. You know, he still had me nervous all the time. I always had to look over on the sidelines and him yelling at me for coming down off the break and shooting the three pointer off the break.

[Rich Levine]

Did you ever envision that the game was going to evolve in the way that it did?

[Brian Taylor]

I have no idea, no clue. Because I even questioned whether they would keep it because there were so many detractors of that shot coming into the NBA in 79. So I didn't even know whether it was going to last or not. It was like the great experiment.

[NBA Commentator]

Taylor, three pointer, phenomenal shooting. I'll tell you. That's tough out there. It's a long ways out there, isn't it? 22ft from the sidelines.

[Rich Levine]

I guess the experiment succeeded because the NBA three point line did stop. But for a long while it was still mostly ignored.

[Nick Olschuler]

In that first season, 7980 teams averaged 2.8 attempts a game. By 1986 attempts did go up, but just barely. 3.3 threes a game. It was still little more than an oddity.

[Rich Levine]

And in a way, like we can understand that, right? Like head coaches like Paul Silas were old school guys who had mastered a game that didn't include the three.

[Nick Olschuler]

None of the books on basketball included three point strategy. None of the players had grown up shooting threes. This kind of thing takes time.

[Rich Levine]

And in general, the NBA was still mostly just ignoring advanced stats, which is basically anything beyond the raw numbers you see in a box. Score, points, rebounds, assists. But an advanced stat uses those raw numbers to provide some next level insight. For instance, imagine a catch all shooting percentage. One that includes twos and threes and corrects for the difference in value. Today we have that stat. It's called effective field goal percentage. But back then it was hard enough to convince teams that three is more than two.

[Nick Olschuler]

This was an era when drafting Sam Bowie.

[Rich Levine]

Seven foot one.

[Nick Olschuler]

Thank you. Over Michael Jordan.

[Rich Levine]

Oh, were you aware Michael Jordan, 6 foot 6?

[Nick Olschuler]

I am now, thank you. Was defensible because the Portland Trail Blazers already had Clyde Drexler.

[Rich Levine]

If you were wondering. Six foot seven, a two way star.

[Nick Olschuler]

With multiple all NBA seasons ahead of him.

[Rich Levine]

Although honestly, Nick, I do get it. Like who needs a second all star swingman?

[Nick Olschuler]

I don't know. But seven footers with troubling medical records, you can never get enough of those, right?

[Rich Levine]

But you could blame the NBA for ignoring complicated math when the bottom line was at a meteoric rise. By the mid-1980s, the league was more popular than ever. Finally, it had Bonafide. Star, Bird and Magic had electrified the nation. Ratings boomed, fans came back. Who has the energy to worry about math when your product is soaring? Collecting new fans with every new highlight dunk or memorable commercial. New fans like me and me, two.

[Nick Olschuler]

Kids from Massachusetts, a little too young to understand the greatness of the Celtics and still decades away from understanding the power of statistical analysis, but falling in love with professional basketball.

[Rich Levine]

My first NBA memory is from game two of the first round of that 1986 postseason. I was there with my dad at the old Boston Garden taking the tempo.

[NBA Commentator]

Away from the Celtics, trying to Michael Jordan right now.

[Rich Levine]

23 year old Jordan scored a still NBA playoff record 63 points that afternoon. The Bulls and Celtics scored a combined 266 points. I caught some of this game recently on YouTube and I couldn't believe my eyes. Every single possession, all 10 players squeezed inside the three point line. It was like the floor outside the ark was hot lava.

[NBA Commentator]

Aim starting Michael Jordan. Jordan goes up with a shot and hits it and has 61 points to tie Elgin Baylor.

[Nick Olschuler]

I was born the year the NBA 3 was introduced. 1979.

[Rich Levine]

Oh Jesus, you're old. The 70s.

[Nick Olschuler]

I'm a year older than you.

[Rich Levine]

You were an entire decade older than me.

[Nick Olschuler]

But we both grew up playing at a time when taking a 3 was more likely to see you benched than cheered. At 6 4, I stood taller than average and the idea of me playing anywhere outside the paint was absurd to any coach I ever had.

[Rich Levine]

You can't teach height, they used to say. And they certainly weren't going to teach us to shoot from distance.

[Nick Olschuler]

It was still the big man era, but there was a glimmer of change. The NBA embraced the three in a way treating the novelty like a side act at the All Star Game, the long distance shootout, aka the three point contest. Our man Larry Bird won it in 1986.

[Rich Levine]

It should be noted he also won in 1987.

[Nick Olschuler]

Let the record show. Also 1988.

[Rich Levine]

Something was starting to change in 1989. The NBA was ready to blast into the future at All Star Weekend in Houston, an event of critical importance to long distance shots and to us and to our story.

[Nick Olschuler]

For it's here in Houston where our winding journey finally meets up with the man who had calculated one simple path.

[Rich Levine]

Forward right after this break.

[Preeti Varadhan]

This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Knowing you could be saving money for the things you really want like that dream house or ride is a great feeling. That's why the State Farm Personal Price Plan can help you save when you choose to bundle home and auto bundling. Just another way to save with a personal price plan. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state.

[Nick Olschuler]

Gatorade is the number one proven electrolyte.

[Dale Ellis]

Blend designed to hydrate better than water so you can lose more sweat and raise your game. Gatorade Is it in you.

[Ryan Reynolds]

We are.

[Rich Levine]

Now inside a sold out Astrodome and.

[NBA Commentator]

Before game time we have a very special All Star introduction.

[Rich Levine]

Yeah, it comes to all stars. The 1989 all star game was held inside the cavernous Houston Astrodome. It's a baseball field, so they refitted it for hoops. They laid down a cord on top of the infield, lined it all with a red carpet.

[NBA Commentator]

Barkley follows up.

[Nick Olschuler]

They even set up extra sets of stands.

[Rich Levine]

If you were in the upper deck at the top row, the seven footers would look like ants.

[Nick Olschuler]

Elijah Wong, you probably were not happy with the ticket price.

[Rich Levine]

Yes, $13.

[Nick Olschuler]

And yet they sold the thing out. At that point. This All Star Game was the most attended game in NBA history.

[Rich Levine]

So they pulled out all the stops, including a special theme song for the weekend, aptly titled NBA All Star Rap from the legendary Ultra Magnetic MCs.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Kevin Duckworth dominating the earth as the middleman. Dominating every little man back and forth down the low post for the slam pulverizing the hoop cuz he's an All Star.

[Rich Levine]

It's truly a time capsule into an age of awkward progress. Progress for the NBA.

[NBA Commentator]

Look out Carl Malone who is the top.

[Nick Olschuler]

After a booming decade, it was a time of transition. 1989 was the first All Star game of the 80s without Bird and Magic. Bird missed just about the entire season with bone spurs in his feet.

[Rich Levine]

Ouch.

[Nick Olschuler]

Magic was the leading vote getter for the west but skipped the game with an injury so that 41 year old Lakers teammate Kareem Abdul Jabbar, on a farewell tour in his 20th NBA season, could play in one last All Star Game.

[NBA Commentator]

There's the hook. Yes, that's great. Standing old Kareem Abdul jabbar in his 18th All Star Game. He hit the sky hook.

[Rich Levine]

Yes, it was a time of transition. The end of an era. The most lucrative decade in NBA history. But a transition into what?

[Nick Olschuler]

Well, into guys like Dale Ellis.

[Rich Levine]

Nick, you have Any curiosity into how tall Dale Ellis was?

[Nick Olschuler]

I feel like you're going to tell me.

[Rich Levine]

Well, Dale Ellis, for those keeping score was 6 foot 7.

[Nick Olschuler]

Thank you so much.

[Dale Ellis]

Richard, can you hear me?

[Rich Levine]

Yeah, we got you, Dale. How are you?

[Dale Ellis]

Rich, how are you?

[NBA Commentator]

Good.

[Rich Levine]

And here with Nick is here too. He's my partner in all this.

[Dale Ellis]

How you doing, Nick?

[Nick Olschuler]

Good, how are you?

[Dale Ellis]

Fantastic.

[Nick Olschuler]

Thanks for taking the time.

[Dale Ellis]

No, my pleasure.

[Nick Olschuler]

These days, Dale Ellis is remembered as a prolific three point shooter. He was the first player to reach 1000 threes in a career.

[Dale Ellis]

I was always best friends with the guards, the guys that pass you the ball.

[Rich Levine]

But he actually never attempted an in Game 3 until he made it to the NBA. Because like every other player at that time, Ellis didn't grow up with a three point line.

[Nick Olschuler]

That may seem impossible to believe as right this minute there are kids imagining their Steph Curry in driveways all across America. But when Ellis was a kid.

[Dale Ellis]

I love Kareem Abdul Jabbar. I was throwing hook shots. It didn't matter what distance I was from the basket. I was throwing a hook shot pretending to be him on the playgrounds.

[Rich Levine]

Playgrounds didn't have three point lines. Neither did high schools. And Dale Ellis never played with the line while in college at the University of Tennessee. So when Ellis got to the league, taken ninth by Dallas in the 83 draft, he learned he could hit threes almost by accident, thanks to a friendship with fellow Mavs rookie Derek Harper.

[Nick Olschuler]

Harper is known as one of the best backcourt defenders of his generation.

[Dale Ellis]

And after practice we played one on one. He had great hands, so he was one of those guys that could make you go left or right.

[Nick Olschuler]

Harper also took full advantage of an entirely different element of the game that the league had yet to outlaw.

[Dale Ellis]

The hand checking rules weren't in place at that time, so it was hard to get past him to get clear lane to the basket. So at every opportunity, I would take what he would get me and coaches saw me shoot threes. They had no idea that I could face the basket and pull up from that distance and shoot a three.

[Nick Olschuler]

In the summer of 86, Ellis moved to Seattle. He rose to stardom as the leader of an upstart supersonics team who rocked the bright green and gold jerseys.

[Rich Levine]

I think they're more of like a yellow, aren't they?

[Nick Olschuler]

The official website says gold.

[Rich Levine]

I think it's more of like a yellow.

[Nick Olschuler]

Gold, Yellow. Gold is gold. Rich.

[Rich Levine]

Fittingly, Ellis also changed his Jersey number from 14 to number three.

[Dale Ellis]

I ended up in the Start lineup and threw the ball away a couple times. He called the timeout and said, you're here to shoot it. If you refuse to shoot it, you can sit next to me. And I decided I'm going to shoot the basketball. And my teammates knew that when the ball got in my hands, they can start jockeying for position for a rebound. It might not be a rebound. It's going in. He's shooting it.

[Rich Levine]

That first year in Seattle, Ellis led the entire NBA in three point attempts with 240.

[NBA Commentator]

Dale Ellis again, this guy is on fire.

[Nick Olschuler]

He simultaneously ran away with the most improved player award.

[Rich Levine]

His increase from 7.1 to 24.9 points per game is still the largest single season leap in NBA history.

[Nick Olschuler]

And it landed him at the 1989 All Star Game as the best long range shooter in the game. And he proved it that weekend by beating marksman Craig Hodges in the final of the three point shootout.

[NBA Commentator]

Dale Ellis, a bridesmaid no longer winner of the long distance shootout over Greg Hodges.

[Rich Levine]

Like Brian Taylor before him, Dale Ellis had stumbled on the secret he after.

[Dale Ellis]

Shooting from that distance, I didn't quite get why more players weren't shooting from there.

[Rich Levine]

But what Ellis didn't know was that in Houston that weekend was the man who saw his full potential. The future really. The man who saw numbers as colors and analytics is high religion. The one who on this very weekend found himself in position to change the game forever.

[Fred Hickman]

Well, Dale Ellis, how does it feel to have the trophy?

[Rich Levine]

He'd been watching Dale Ellis, studying him and his three point attempts. Even if the attention wasn't exactly mutual.

[Nick Olschuler]

Should we ask about Martin?

[Rich Levine]

Yeah. Have you, do you, have you ever heard the name Martin Manley?

[Dale Ellis]

No.

[Rich Levine]

For the book Basketball Heaven?

[Dale Ellis]

No, I'm not familiar with him.

[Nick Olschuler]

Martin was actually there in 89. Oh, he was doing some reporting for TBS. But his whole thing was efficiency. And he was the first guy to say like, why aren't people shooting more three pointers? This is silly. So when you won the contest, he was, he was watching you.

[Dale Ellis]

Oh wow.

[NBA Commentator]

Dale Ellis with a wide open jumper. He won the three point shootout yesterday.

[Rich Levine]

Even if you were looking for Martin MANLEY during that 1989 All Star weekend, you probably would have walked right past him. He was unassuming, just a 30something white guy from Kansas. Short, dark hair, sturdy 80s mustache.

[Nick Olschuler]

He wasn't an imposing physical presence. He was soft spoken, never an athlete. He looked like someone who crunched statistics, not someone with strong opinions on NBA basketball. And truth be told, until a few years earlier, he wasn't.

[Rich Levine]

But inspiration and opportunity struck, and once Martin had an idea, he would squeeze it for every last drop.

[Nick Olschuler]

Martin Manley was a numbers guy. He was tired of conventional thinking in all aspects of life. He watched basketball games across the country obsessively, nightly. He did the math, and he saw it clearly. You are doing it wrong.

[Rich Levine]

So he built this case in a book titled Basketball Heaven, in which Martin presented, among other things, the idea that shooting a Decent percentage from 3 could earn you more points than a higher percentage from 2. The math was too obvious to ignore, although to this point, the NBA had done a pretty good job.

[Nick Olschuler]

Until now. Live on national tv.

[Fred Hickman]

And still ahead, we've got more Inside the NBA.

[Rich Levine]

Inside the NBA, his golden opportunity to.

[Nick Olschuler]

Present his ideas to the world alongside the sport's biggest names during the All Star Weekend in Houston and catapult the NBA into a new album era.

[Rich Levine]

This was his moment in the spotlight, in the center of the Astrodome, and.

[Nick Olschuler]

Martin couldn't have asked for a better introduction from broadcaster Fred Hickman, host of Inside the NBA.

[Fred Hickman]

Joining me now is a legend in his own time, and he's got a book to prove it. This is the book Basketball Heaven. It is penned by Martin Manley. Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball. And Martin.

[Nick Olschuler]

Let's wait a second. That thing Hickman just said is really important. It would have mattered a great deal to Martin or anyone else in his shoes. So let's play it again.

[Fred Hickman]

Martin Manley. Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball.

[Rich Levine]

Bill James, big deal.

[Nick Olschuler]

If you're a sports fan familiar with Bill James, you understand why this is a compliment of the highest order. It's like Manley is making his national TV debut and being knighted at the same time.

[Rich Levine]

If you're unfamiliar with Bill James, allow my friend Nick child of the 1970s to offer this cheat sheet on one of the smartest people in sports.

[Nick Olschuler]

Literally one year before you. In the mid-70s, Bill James was a night watchman at a baked beans factory in Kansas. Tired of the conventional thinking in baseball, in 1977, James Self published his first book, Baseball Abstract, which dug into the numbers in a way no one had before. Today, that former night watchman is considered a sports galileo, the first person to not only challenge conventional thinking, but to argue successfully against ideas that had long been considered facts. The first to take the numbers available to everyone and prove that some statistics were overlooked and others vital to winning hadn't yet even been invented. So he invented them. His new interpretations forever changed strategy. Coaches called in relief pitchers earlier in the game. They figured out maybe intentional walks aren't worth the risk. Today, Bill James place in history is secured. He's met with multiple US Presidents. He was named one of times most influential people. When that mattered, he appeared on the Simpsons as himself. More important, Brad Pitt even made a movie Moneyball based on Bill James work.

[Rich Levine]

Love Moneyball.

[Nick Olschuler]

So yeah, Bill James is a big deal. But in 1989, James was still a relative unknown. But not to Martin Manley. In fact, a lot of Martin's thinking about efficiency in basketball was inspired by how Bill James thought about baseball. He was a huge inspiration for a fellow Kansan.

[Rich Levine]

And it was right there in quotes on the COVID of Martin's book that announcer Fred Hickman was holding up in front of a national TV audience. The Bill James of basketball.

[Nick Olschuler]

Basketball Heaven was smart, comprehensive and most of all, original. Through Manley's eyes, readers got a peek at what the NBA could be if only they'd follow his advice. Like this bit from the book. The three point shot has increased in popularity every year since the league first adopted it, but it's not as popular as it should be. The three pointer is a big advantage and should be used more effectively by NBA teams.

[Fred Hickman]

Joining me now is a legend in his own time and he's got a book to prove it.

[Nick Olschuler]

This was a massive opportunity for basketball analytics, but also a huge moment in the life of the man hoping to lead the revolution.

[Fred Hickman]

This is the book Basketball Heaven. It is penned by Martin Manley.

[Nick Olschuler]

The young man from small town Kansas hoped to change black and white post ups to glorious Technicolor rainbows from way downtown. And perhaps more importantly to Martin, he could prove he was the smartest person.

[Fred Hickman]

In the he has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball.

[Rich Levine]

And in this moment, as Fred Hickman introduced him, Martin sat perched between success and failure, stardom and anonymity. And Martin Manley, ever full of dualities, looks ready for both.

[Nick Olschuler]

There's a twinkle in his eyes and a little wiggle to his mustache that can't quite hide the smirk of a man ready to lay down the laws of basketball efficiency as if he had written them on stone tablets.

[Rich Levine]

At the same time, he's a man in a brown blazer and tie with gray slacks, sitting on a brown wooden chair with gray upholstery, as if he.

[Nick Olschuler]

Had called ahead to make sure he dressed for maximum camouflage.

[Rich Levine]

Martin's leaning hard on his elbow like he wants to whisper a secret into Hickman's ear, but also like he might pass out.

[Fred Hickman]

And Martin, let's talk about it right now. You've watched these teams all season long. Surprisingly, it's a coin flip.

[Nick Olschuler]

5050 legacy on the line Martin gathers himself ready to speak.

[Rich Levine]

On the next episode of Chasing Basketball Heaven.

[Martin Manley]

I not only don't want to be the same as everyone else, I don't want to be the same as anyone else. I'm not going to do what everyone else does just because they do it.

[Nick Olschuler]

Our friend Martin gets closer to the truth.

[Martin Manley]

Never again would I be in the dark about which player really deserved the headlines.

[Rich Levine]

But can you be a leader if no one follows you?

[Martin Manley]

My dream, of course, was and is that not only I could be enlightened, but so could basketball fans everywhere.

[Rich Levine]

Chasing Basketball Heaven is a 30 for 30 podcast produced by by ESPN, HyperObject Industries and Meadowlark Media.

[Nick Olschuler]

It was reported and hosted by Nick Altschuler and Rich Levine with Craig Kilborne as the voice of Martin Manley.

[Rich Levine]

Executive producers from Hyperobject Industries and Meadowlark media are Adam McKay, Claire Slaughter and Bradley Campbell. Senior editorial producer of 30 for 30 podcasts is Preeti Varathan. The series senior producer is Raghu Manavalan.

[Nick Olschuler]

The series producer is Gus Navarro.

[Rich Levine]

Consulting producer Gary Hoenig.

[Nick Olschuler]

Story editors were Jamie York and Mack Montanden.

[Rich Levine]

Sound design and mixing by John Delore.

[Nick Olschuler]

Theme song composed by Alison Leighton Brown.

[Rich Levine]

And John Delore show art by Brian.

[Nick Olschuler]

Lutz Fact checking by Matt Giles and.

[Rich Levine]

David Sabino for 30 for 30 and ESPN line producer is Kathryn Sankey.

[Nick Olschuler]

Associate producer is Isabella Seaman.

[Rich Levine]

Production assistants are Diamante McKelvey and Emily Anthony Salas.

[Nick Olschuler]

Producer is Carolyn Hepburn.

[Rich Levine]

Senior producers are Marquise Daisy and Gentry Kirby.

[Nick Olschuler]

Heather Anderson, Marcia Cook, Ryan Lockhart and Burke Magnus are executive producers for 30.

[Rich Levine]

For 30 rights and clearances by Jennifer Thorpe and Cal Griffith.

[Nick Olschuler]

This podcast was developed by Tara Nadalny and Cynthia Parabello.

[Rich Levine]

To listen to more sports series like this one, search 30 for 30podcasts wherever you listen to podcasts or find us at 30for30podcast.com. Thanks for listening.