← Supply Chain Now
Supply Chain Now
Adapting to Change: 2025 Lessons, Supply Chain Insights, & 2026 Predictions, featuring U.S. Bank's Gustav Khambatta
00:47:12
Loading summary
Transcript119 lines
- [00:00]
A
The number one way cybercriminals are getting into corporate systems is via email. Once they get into your email, they can see what you're doing, understand the supply chain. Next thing you know, they have your bill of lading, they've got your form, they fill the form out, then they go, they've got a driver comes up. They know exactly what they're supposed to be picking up. And when they come a little early show, the forms load up, leave, they've just taken goods and then the actual driver comes in two hours later, we already delivered.
- [00:37]
B
Welcome to Supply Chain now the number one voice of Supply Chain. Join us as we share critical news, key insights, and real supply chain leadership from across the globe. One conversation at a time. Hey, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you may be. Scott Lewton and the one and only Corinne Bursa with you here on Supply Chain now. Welcome to today's show. Corinne, how you doing today?
- [01:01]
C
I'm doing great, Scott. Hey, happy New Year.
- [01:04]
B
Happy New Year to you as well. And you usually have a another mantra that you always fit in somewhere. We want to kick off with that or we want to sprinkle it in later.
- [01:13]
C
I think we kick off with it because everybody who is with us today, you are the supply chain movers and shakers. You make commerce happen. And I want you to know that it is a great time to be in supply chain and 2026 is going to hold new opportunities for all of us, no doubt.
- [01:32]
B
Love that perspective. And now I can, I can put a, I can mark out that bingo spot on my card because every conversation that's in your bones, Corinne, and I love that. So, folks, to echo Corinne's point, hope your new year has gotten off to a great start. You know, one of my favorite sessions in 2024 was this end of year recap with a couple of savvy industry veterans you already seen right in the intro here. In fact, we liked it so much, we're conducting a sequel here today. That's right, a sequel. So, folks, we've got a great show teed up. We're going to be getting to a variety of topics from cybersecurity to cargo insecurity, maybe to AI to the world of freight. Of course, we're going to reflect on 2025 and offer a few predictions to see how wrong we can be. We can be on 2026, all that and much, much more. So stick around for a great conversation that's going to offer up tons of actionable insights by the truckload. Corinne, are you Ready to go. Great show, huh?
- [02:29]
C
Oh, I'm sure it's going to be packed with facts and insights and hopefully you can get our guest to pull out his crystal ball and let us know what's going to unfold for us in the new year.
- [02:41]
B
Hey, we're holding them to it. We shall see. So let's, let's dive on in correct until you're ready. And I think I am too. I'm going to find one more cup of coffee somewhere here. But hey. Our guest today is backed by Popular man. He brings more than 20 years of experience to the table in developing marketing, selling global business to business software solutions all in a wide array of sectors, especially across the global supply chain ecosystem. He also brings a background of private equity to the table which allows him to inject strategic financial perspective to all that he does. Our guest also serves as if his leadership role isn't enough, in some of his spare time he serves as president of the New England CSCNP Roundtable where he loves to support students, the network serves membership and he loves those plant tours. He may talk about some of those here today. So let's welcome in Gustav Kimbata, senior vice president head of Freight payment sales with U.S. bank. Gustav, how you doing?
- [03:39]
A
I'm doing great. Happy New Year. How are you?
- [03:41]
B
Happy New Year to you as well. And Corinne, we had a lot of fun with Gustav about a year or so ago, didn't we?
- [03:48]
C
I think it was almost a year ago. Yeah, absolutely.
- [03:51]
B
So we had to have him back for the sequel. Did you like that Gustav? The sequel that we're calling this equal. Yeah.
- [03:57]
A
Okay.
- [03:57]
B
Little, little play from Hollywood there. So I want to start with a fun warm up question and it's going to be I think US bank is involved in a sports desk somewhere some in some way shape or form and you're a big sports lover. We were talking to pre show about your beloved Patriots. They're having one heck of a year, huh?
- [04:15]
A
Who would have thought after the first two games that they'd be in the position they are in today. And you know there's still people that don't believe but I, I think we're, we're, we're, we're headed, we're headed for the playoffs.
- [04:26]
B
As a big Clemson fan, I saw Drake May up close and personal at UNC and that's. Who's the quarterback for the Patriots now. Tearing it up, Corinne. Our Falcons and stick with the NFL theme. Our Falcons are struggling this year again, huh?
- [04:39]
C
Yeah, it's not pretty. They've had plenty of opportunity. They're just not getting it done.
- [04:44]
B
Not at all. You're so true. Now the other and beyond the NFL, because we're not going to dwell on that performance here. Lindsey Vaughn, you're talking about Gustav in the pre show. She had a big accomplishment recently, huh?
- [04:56]
A
Yeah. I mean here's woman in her 40s and boom, she has won a World cup race. So it's very exciting. Really looking forward to watching the Olympics and a lot of skiing here in February come that time. So it's really exciting time in sports right now.
- [05:12]
B
It is. And I'm going to finish with one more, the F1. So I'm new to F1. I'm the oddball out there because I know it's, it's very popular. I was at an event out in Vegas and I snuck out of town, out of town right before F1 invaded. And it was going to be, I'll tell you a few things. Take Vegas to the next level. Maybe the Super Bowl. Clearly F1. But Gustav, you're a big time fan, huh?
- [05:36]
A
Oh yeah. I love watching it. And I don't necessarily have a favorite team eraser, but I really enjoyed watching Lando Norris pull it off year. Come next year, I guess we're all going to have to subscribe to Apple TV in order to watch it.
- [05:48]
B
So they're going to get us one way or another. Now, Karin, we've got our own F1 here in Metro Atlanta. It's called driving through the city. Is that right?
- [05:58]
C
I don't know that we actually get the speed that we just get the traffic. There's plenty of bumping cars along the way.
- [06:05]
B
Oh my gosh. And my. Some of my relatives would disagree. I've seen them obtain, attain certain speeds. But regardless, from, from the world of sports athletic performance to the world of global supply chain and supply chain performance. Before we get into our whole interview here today conversation, Gustav, I want to again, especially for our new audience members, I'll share a little context about your professional journey. Right. So they, they can, they know why they should trust a lot of your perspective here today. So tell us a little about your journey and about your current role at U.S. bank.
- [06:39]
A
Sure. Well, I guess you say I really started in the ERP software industry, had a number of hats, a lot of roles and that parlayed into e invoicing and through that process worked for a company that ended up getting acquired by a bank by JP Morgan and then ended up over at US Bank. And I've been in this position trade Audit and payment sales since 2013. So about 14 years there right at the bank.
- [07:05]
B
Yes. And you have seen in this 14 years, I bet you have seen a lot of things come and go. Some stick around. But you're ready to write a book.
- [07:13]
A
Huh, on the freight industry in retirement. Maybe I'll do that.
- [07:18]
B
Hey, Corinne, I know you've been doing big things in global supply chain for a long time, especially in the technology standpoint. Gosh, the world of freight just in the last 14 years it has been hanging on to your hat, huh?
- [07:30]
C
Absolutely. You know, it's a great indicator of overall economic position on where we are, if you from my perspective, I look at it as a leading indicator because when we're investing in inventory and moving inventory, that's usually in anticipation of future demand. So I do like to look at the US bank report that's shared here on supply chain now every quarter and really look at it as an important indicator for all of us in supply chain.
- [07:59]
B
Corinne, you're reading my mind because that's exactly what I'm going to ask Gustav about next. The U.S. bank freight payment Index, which we have been really enjoyed covering for probably five or six years now every quarter. And we'll touch on how y' all can check out those conversations in a minute. But Gustav, in your perspective, especially being in your, your leadership role now for 14 years in the, you know, serving the freight space and the shippers and, and really global supply chain, what value do you constantly hear from your customers and industry in terms of the value that the Freight Payment Index delivers?
- [08:30]
A
We process over $40 billion in spending on an annual basis and we're auditing that for accuracy and we're conditioning that data so we've got good, clean, usable data which from that we have generated our index. And so we publish that quarterly. And it's also regional based so you can really see what's happening in different parts of the country, which has been quite apparent this year with a lot of the turmoil going on. And so that provides value across the board in both a public report for industry to use and then also it's a basis too for us to be able to provide benchmarking services to our customers.
- [09:08]
B
Corinne, one of my favorite parts of the US Bank Freight PIM Index is I love the core shipping data, right. Volume and pricing and and now the also rate updates, which is a new add on in the last year, which I think has brought a lot more value. But perhaps my favorite part, Corinne, is the holistic approach. We get economic insights, we get Certain sector insights. And it's a very holistic tool that I think not only benefits shippers, but really what anyone to your point, Corinne, that wants to kind of keep their finger on the pulse of what's going on across the country and really across North America?
- [09:45]
C
Yeah, I love it because it's actual data. It's not a survey that is reading feelings or emotions. And, you know, I'm big on facts, not feelings, because we can add color commentary to it as you layer in what's happening in, in the global economy. But the fact that this is based off, as Gustav said, real data that's auditable, it's a great indicator, it's a great pulse of where the market is. And we can read into that lots of regional assessments that are taking place. It's always interesting to see in the US how different regions are performing as an indicator of overall economic activity.
- [10:25]
B
That's right. And really quick, before I'm going to call out one of our. All of our shows are my favorites. Right. It's like picking your favorite child. You can't do it, but I'm going to get your take on one of them. But Gustav, I'll tell you, you've got truckloads of data and as you said, good, clean, usable data. You're making organization leaders everywhere very envious of having all that good, usable data, huh?
- [10:47]
A
Yes, we are.
- [10:52]
C
It's changing.
- [10:53]
B
It is changing. Maybe not ever so slowly, but it's changing. It's changing, Corinne. And we see evidence of that here, there and everywhere. But I gotta call out one particular show. So we had, of course, Bobby Holland joined us for a lot of our quarterly sessions where we dive in deep into the US Bank Freight Payment Index. And Corinne, you joined me as a co host for a session, I think it was in November, I think, 2025. It featured Bob Costello, who is chief economist for the American Trucking Associations. What was one of your favorite moments, Corinne, from that episode?
- [11:24]
C
Well, you know, I think some people kind of hear the gist of this and they're thinking we're going to be bogged down and just dry data. But the color commentary on that particular call was really interesting. The combination of Bobby Holland and Bob Costello, I think, was a good comprehensive view of the market. And getting Bob's color commentary on some of the numbers was really interesting as well.
- [11:52]
B
I completely agree. And that's a great, in a nutshell, encapsulation of some of the value that those shows have. Right. We look at the data, look at the report that we bring in that perspective from folks that are really entrenched in the marketplace. And here's Gustav and Krent. My favorite parts from that show, threefold really quick. Number one, we found out Bob Costello is a big tennis fan. There was some debate over Roger Federer versus Andre Agassi. That was kind of fun. Number two, he's an economist I could really listen to all day long. And you can't say the same for all those economists we see. Not throwing stones, but some of them can be kind of dry.
- [12:27]
A
Bob.
- [12:28]
B
Bob, really I could listen to him for hours. And number three, little data point, I may get these numbers slightly off. So Bob Castell, I apologize, but he made a comment on that show, Corinne and Gustav, that in January 2025 the effective tariff rate across the US for imports was like 2 1/2 percent. Right. It's been that way for a long time. Will come late in the year that effective tariff rate was over 18% I think highest since the 1930s. That we're gonna get into key takeaways in 2025 in the second half of the show. But Corinne, that was an eye opener. That was a real eye opener, huh?
- [13:06]
C
That is a real eye opener. And I think that those dynamic tariff situation, if you will, will they, won't they? How far will they go? What the increase will be. Really drove some crazy inventory swings this year. So it was interesting to see that reflected in the freight payment information because if I'm doing forward buys, if I'm bringing it in ahead of the need for the market because I'm trying to drive a lower cost, there were just lots of interesting dynamics that were driven by uncertainty and then actual price increases and then combined with interest rates starting to come down a bit in the U.S. yep.
- [13:50]
B
And Gustav, one final note here on the Freight payment Index because I know Bob Costello is a big time contributor for all of them. You've seen lots of challenges in those 14 years. Trade policies one of many. But again I'm, I'm looking. I'll be the first person to show up and buy that book when it comes out in a couple years. Gustav, how's that sound?
- [14:08]
A
Sounds good.
- [14:09]
B
Sounds like a plan. Okay, so folks, come join us all year long as we review the US Bank Freight payment Index every quarter. You can learn more and never miss a show by checking out the upcoming live programming tab on the new supply chain now.com website. Okay so Gustav, Technology has played as we've established a big role in your background and professional journey. And given that I want to venture into a Couple of technology topics that are playing a big time role and gain your perspective there. And we'll start with the wide world of cyber security. So, Gustav, when you think of what's going on in cyber and how fast things are evolving, what comes to your mind?
- [14:51]
A
It's something that every company and organization needs to have top of mind. The challenge right now, I think with cyber security, when you think of companies that have breaches, no one wants to admit it, they don't want to go public with it. There's a stigma associated with it. And that's kind of a problem because it's happening all the time. You see it in personal life. Personal story. My mom, 91, she was at the bank. Person on the phone, she was trying to take out $40,000. I mean, this has happened. I mean, didn't happen. Nothing happened in the end, but this happens every day now. And the same thing is happening on with organizations. We actually had one of our customers, they had a breach and they were missing data. Thankfully, they have, we're using U.S. bank freight payment. We have hardened systems. All that data was safe. They said we still need to be able to pay our carriers. Can you help us? And we as a bank were able to do that for them. So until they got their systems up and running. So it's really important that if you're going to work with partners, that they have the security measures in place to keep you safe.
- [15:58]
B
So before I, we're going to tie that to the cargo insecurity landscape in just a second. But Corinne, weigh in on that. I mean, the attacks, the threats, the breaches, the bad actors, man, I don't think they rest, they stay on the move, huh?
- [16:14]
C
I know. If only they use those skills for good instead of evil, it would be a better world, let's put it that way. But Gustav, you're right. Cybersecurity is a big issue. It's an issue personally for us as individuals, but also in the, the commercial world or the corporate world. And you're right, companies don't want to admit when they've had an issue. They don't want to admit when they have vulnerabilities or they've been penetrated in some way from a security perspect, but it's very real. I'm, I'm personally aware of a good half dozen companies this year that have had some issues.
- [16:51]
B
Yes, no doubt. I'll tell you what, and let's bring some. Corinne, I'm gonna try to make you. You and Gustav have. Because y' all both are Big disciples in the data, right? Facts, not feelings. Check this out. A lot of folks are projecting cyber spending across industry is going to exceed $520 billion in 2026. But, comma, that pales in comparison to this number 10.5 trillion. And that's how much cybercrime was projected across the industry this year. And I got create a point. The average cost of a data breach in 2025 was, was globally $4.44 million, except in the US where it was more than double that amount. Over $10 million the average cost of a data breach. So Gustav, think about other numbers. According to one estimate, cargo theft cost industry over $6.6 billion annually. And according to my bad South Carolina math, I'm from there, I can say that that's just under $20 million a day. So Gustav, when you think of cyber and the connection it, it has to protecting freight and cargo everywhere, your thoughts, Gustav?
- [18:02]
A
Yeah. Well, I think there's a misconception that cargo theft is, oh, there's the rail yard. Someone came over there and was able to break in and steal the goods that were inside those box cars. This is actually more, very much more sophisticated. It is really criminal networks. And it starts with going in through cybercrime, and the penetration is really through email systems. That's probably still the number one way cyber criminals are getting into corporate systems is via email. Once they get into your email, it's not about necessarily going ahead and trying to ransomware, but now they can see what you're doing, understand the supply chain. Next thing you know, they have your bill of lading, they've got your form, they fill the form out, then they go, they've got a driver comes up, they know exactly what they're supposed to be picking up. And when they come a little early show, the forms load up, leave, they've just taken goods, and then the actual driver comes in two hours later, we already delivered. Oh, this is exactly how these criminals are working. And it's getting tougher and tougher to prevent that from happening.
- [19:14]
B
Undoubtedly. I'll tell you some of the stories you just mentioned. I swear, I hear a new story every day, every single day, sometimes several. Corinne, if we can't secure our cargo, goodness gracious, we've done a lot of work. All for not, huh?
- [19:28]
C
Oh, absolutely. And I think that the cargo theft, my number may be off just a little, but I think it's up 50% year over year. I mean, it's significant. Gustav, does that sound right to you?
- [19:39]
A
That sounds about right. Yeah. I Mean, it is increased considerably, and.
- [19:44]
C
I think it's underreported because, as Gustav said, there's a stigma associated with it. So I think some companies, some carriers don't want to, to report, support all of the challenges that they've had or all the thefts that have occurred.
- [19:57]
B
Yep, that's right, Corinne. Okay, so we got it, folks. Government mandates. We've got to talk about AI, and I'm kind of tongue in cheek when I say that. But hey, for good reason. It's amazing what artificial intelligence has been doing, especially with the companies and the leadership out there that really are using in a targeted, disciplined, not doing it to their people, they're doing it with their people. I mean, it's amazing. Innovation is driving. So, Gustav, AI, your thoughts on the impact it's having?
- [20:27]
A
Certainly, it's what's driving the economy right now. But when we look at, from a US bank perspective, we want to take a very responsible and deliberate approach to AI. There's certainly plenty of use cases, but you really have got to think about also the security involved, where you're getting the data from, where you're pulling that from, and when you're actually asking AI to perform its analysis and work, that you're doing this in a closed environment, that you're not giving proprietary information out there to the public. You put something in ChatGPT, oh, it perhaps seems like it's anonymous, but they know what URL that's coming from, so that data can end up being understood of where it is. Right. So we take a very deliberate approach, making sure that what we're going to be doing is going to be accurate. There's a lot of hallucinations still out there. I mean, think about it. You're going to go ahead and use chatbots, right? When you go customer support, that AI still isn't working very well if it's being used. So take a very careful approach to AI.
- [21:36]
B
You make a great point, Gustav, because everything can't be unicorns and Care Bears and rainbows, right? We got to be realistic about the good, the bad, and in some cases, the ugly. Corinne, what'd you hear there from Gustav?
- [21:49]
C
Yeah, I think authentication is really what we, we need to look at. So different measures of authentication. I'm a believer in leveraging artificial intelligence. I just think that we've got to get some guardrails in place. We need to be able to discern when something is created electronically or, or if it is an authentic document or transaction that has occurred. The problem is that some of this AI is really hard to detect. AI generated infiltration. So even, you know, again, on a personal level, Gustav, you mentioned your mother and a banking situation for her that occurs all the time in, in business as well.
- [22:34]
B
Yes.
- [22:35]
A
I'll tell you though, we've got some good use cases though. You mentioned documentation and verification. So we're certainly looking at for example, a pod, right. Proof of delivery document. No one wants to have to necessarily open that document and look at it to approve every single invoice. That takes very manual process, very time consuming. So we're using AI to be able to start looking at those documents. We know a document's been looked at, uploaded. Now let's verify what that document is without actually having to open up and look at it. And so these are very good use cases for using AI for verification and fraud prevention.
- [23:11]
B
And if folks want to check all those out, they can reach out to you and you're happy, I bet you are a member of your team, are happy to sit down and, and share that value with them, huh?
- [23:19]
A
Yes, indeed.
- [23:21]
B
Outstanding. And maybe talk about a little NFL or get the sports desk update from Gustav. Combata 2, huh.
- [23:28]
A
Interesting one. One other comment to make is in terms of linking even AI with cyber security, I think as I mentioned last year, you know, a lot of the RFPs we get a bulk of the RFP questions end up being about security. Well, for the first time just recently we had a whole section that asked about how we utilize AI and the security thereof. So this is propping up more and more and companies really need to be able to focus on being able to respond to those types of questions and actually having authentication and security in place when using these types of tools.
- [24:02]
B
Yeah. Gustav and Corinne, it's interesting I was kidding when I mentioned those government mandated to talk about AI, of course. But on a serious note, when it comes to the regulatory environment, it'll be really interesting to see. I mean we've all seen that the policies that have been put in place across Europe, it'll be interesting to see the environment continue to evolve here in the states. In some cases you got the federal government don't want states to take the lead and those debates are continuing to play out. But to one one of y' all mentioned, we still need to have some good guide posts. I think that might have been. Corinne said that. So we're, we're going to kind of see how the regulatory environment continues to unfold. But a couple other observations I have Gustav and Corinne, Corinne, you and I talked about it out at the Supply chain Planning Summit Gartner holds out in Denver. Lots of leadership approaches. And one of my favorite moments from my chats with you and Jake Barr was his comment around some leaders are out there. They're a bit of a deer in headlights when it comes to just how technology has evolved. Corinne, that was a neat moment from our conversations out there, huh?
- [25:03]
C
Yeah. I do think that there is a feeling of being overwhelmed that AI is evolving so quickly. It's important to have a trusted partner or trusted partners in your ecosystem that can help you with that and that are looking at some of this deeper authentication as a part of the process as well. I think as supply chain practitioners, we also just have to be open to thinking that, hey, this is all going to change and that's going to change rapidly. So Gustav, you mentioned being in the ERP marketplace early in your career. At that time, those systems were progressing much more slowly. Today they're moving at risk rapid speed. And then when we look at these transaction based systems or payment processing, for example, I mean, we're talking about millions and millions of transactions that happen and we need the added security that good banking partnerships, transaction partnerships bring to the table because you're paying a wide variety of large companies and small individual carriers in some situations.
- [26:11]
B
Good stuff. Any thoughts on that before I move on?
- [26:15]
A
Yeah, I mean, we certainly have taken an approach too. When you look at the one of the things we're developing further is our audit core agent Ace, as we like to call it. So we're revamping the internal mechanisms within our database structure that allows us then to take more advantage of the AI tools. If you have historical structured data that allows you to do better analysis. So a lot of the internal develop things that our customers won't even see but are now enabling us to use these tools and being able to, you know, things have to develop on a lot quicker pace. As you had mentioned, Corinne, I've got.
- [26:56]
B
To come out of the deep end because you just about took the conversation above my payroll, Gustav. But the great thing there that I think is important for anyone out there is that much like the best organizations and industry leaders, you and the U.S. bank team are not sitting on laurels. You're constantly evolving and innovating to not only keep up with, but to stay ahead of not only what businesses need out there and supply chain leaders, but what the bad actors are doing. Is that right, Gustav?
- [27:23]
A
That is correct.
- [27:24]
B
Outstanding. All right, a couple final points. Y' all know I'm a big nerd for data points, but three Things as we wrap on AI and then we're getting into getting some of Yalls key takeaways from 2025. So check this out as we wrap up AI. According to ABE research, three out of four supply chain professionals surveyed. I know it's a survey, Corinne, it's not hardcore data, but a survey believed that autonomous AI agents will manage core planning tasks by as early as 2026. We heard some of those conversations out at Gartner McKinsey. Data shows AI adoption continues to scale where they say one of the fastest growing domains is supply chain. And they showed that 88% of companies using AI in at least one business function. That sounds low to me. Maybe, I don't know. And then more and more you're going to find AI not just taking care of the tedious tasks which seem to be easier to automate. Right. Blocking and tackling, but in executive suites, you're seeing AI being leveraged in more strategic capacities, executive decision support, scenario planning and adaptive risk management. Corrine, your quick comment there before I move on to reflections on 2025.
- [28:34]
C
I agree with all of the above. All of those are great examples. I spent a full day yesterday working with a leader in the industry and our focus, 80% of the day was around AI and the next things to be accelerated or automated or provide greater granularity of analysis. So it's coming, it's coming fast and furious and it will drive value. Right. With faster decision making, better decision quality, the ability to augment strategic initiatives and answer questions as well as simply automate some of the tactical areas of the planning process.
- [29:13]
B
Yes. I'll tell you, Gustav, when Corinne Bursa agrees with everything you said, you know you've done something. You know you have done something. I was worried there for a second.
- [29:23]
A
We've been validated.
- [29:24]
B
Yes, I've been validated. Thank you, Gustav. That's a great word.
- [29:28]
C
I was impressed. Scott, you were on a roll there. I'm like, yes, yes, yes.
- [29:33]
B
It really happens. All right, so 2025, right. We're here in the new year. Thankfully, opportunities abound as Karen opened with. But looking back at the year that was right. Gustav, when you think about global supply chain and a lot of things that transpired last year, you know, again, good and bad, what are some things that really stick with you?
- [29:55]
A
Gustav, Things didn't weren't as bad as we thought they would be, you know, even tariff wise. But also, you know, it didn't produce all the big boom that we were also hoping. I mean manufacturing at the end of the year did seem like it had a dip, right? Labor market still bouncing around. So I think it was in the end, perhaps maybe the best we could have hoped for, somewhat stable. And I think that's, that's what people want here, stability. And I think this is what's going to be very important, is that, you know, shippers and carriers just continue to really partner, deepen their partnerships with each other, that you can't do it alone. And they really have to come together and work together. Partners.
- [30:37]
B
Yes. Gustav, preach it louder to the folks in the back. I can't agree with you more because you don't do global supply chain alone. That lesson has been reemphasized plenty of times over the years, but last year was one that certainly stood out. Corinne, between what you heard there from Gustav and your own key takeaways from last year, your thoughts?
- [30:57]
C
Yeah, I like Gustav's point of view on this, that in hindsight, 2025 was not nearly as volatile as we expected. But I will tell you, there were moments that felt really, really volatile. And so I think technology plays a big part part in that because I think businesses have to be able to model a wide variety of scenarios and deliver really a range of outcomes. I mean, this is an area back to AI. This is an area where AI is helping. But I don't think we saw some of the improvements we've expected yet. So as interest rates, for example, have come down in the U.S. i think that we expected to see a corresponding increase in housing related sectors. So whether it's new construction or furnishings, any of those sectors that often get influenced by people purchasing or moving their residences, we're not seeing it yet or certainly I haven't seen the impact of that yet. So I think there's room here in early 2026 to see that impact. I think the US may see a couple more interest rate reductions which, you know, kind of brings any kind of economic impact right to your dining room table as you care for your loved ones in your own home. So we'll see if that spurs the economy and freight movements for as an indicator of that.
- [32:25]
B
Yep. I want to add two quick points to things you both mentioned there. It's, it is amazing to, to use and be a part of the AI revolution and observe all the incredible things that we're doing with that technology. However, it comes at a cost. And one of my key takeaways, takeaways from 2025 was energy demand. It's rising like a Wayne Gretzky golden hockey stick. Right. Electricity Growth in particular, I saw somewhere, I think for the next couple years the world has to bring on the electricity consumption that Japan uses in a single year. That's the new demand coming on our electrical grids around the world. Data centers powering AI innovation and more, of course, big users. Check out this data point from the U.S. department of Energy. And this was a study 2024. So I bet, I bet it's risen since then. Data centers consumed 4.4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023 and are expected to consume approximately 6.7 to 12%. That's a pretty big range. U.S. department of Energy of total U.S. electricity by 2028. Oh my gosh.
- [33:35]
C
So we've got 6.7 to 12%. What was that range?
- [33:39]
B
6.7 to 12. So it might be almost 2x or 3. Yeah, that's big. So we've got to find more juice. And I for one Gustav and Corinne continue to be more optimistic about better efficiencies and more innovation in the green energy space. We've just had on a great or power CSEO that was really driving more and more efficiencies out of solar panels and nuclear energy. I think we're entering a really new chapter for nuclear energy, especially with the small modular reactors that I think will be leveraged a number of different ways. So we shall see. So energy Gustav, we need more juice. Quick comment. Therefore, I move to the second.
- [34:18]
A
Absolutely. I mean the, the day these data centers are taken up a lot and water is the other piece too, cooling these systems down a lot of water usage. So it is something that we'll have to keep an eye on, make sure we can continue to support.
- [34:34]
B
Right, Gustav, great point. And Corinne, did you know to. To his point there that data centers that power AI particular in particular use 10x the amount of water because of the swing. So how about that, Corinne? Corinne, you respond on the energy bit and I'm add one more before we look at 2026.
- [34:54]
C
I think it's an important thing that we should all be aware of, especially in regions that have significant climate swings or changes. You know, when you, you think about being in the west coast or the very hot markets that temperatures are over 100 degrees. There are times of day when, you know, you have brownouts or you don't want people running their dishwasher or bringing their air conditioning units on, I think that that's going to be an issue as a part of the infrastructure. You mentioned nuclear power. Those are a long onboarding process. So I do think that we need to look at that as an option, but that's not something, you know, that two years from now is going to be available to us. Those new reactors take decades really to bring onboard board and to activate, to, to help drive, you know, available energy in different regions.
- [35:45]
B
Corinne, great point. I'm hoping Uber or Lyft or something like that could be offer fractional nuclear energy. We'll see. That's a great point. We're in, we're in the early pages of the new chapter. That's a great point. Okay, I want to go back to where Gustav started, his key takeaways for 2025, because there's a lot of, a lot of good stuff. There's, there's a reason we call it the ecosystem. Right. I know some folks don't like that term and they think it's cliche, but I would argue ecosystem and words, things become cliche because they're often rooted in truth. And all the geopolitical and trade and other disruptions in 2025 gave quite a test of supply chain ecosystems everywhere. And let's keep it real. Some of them failed that test worse than my biology tests in college. Right. And I'm hoping that we really, kidding aside, get those lessons learned and really apply them here this year and moving forward because we're only, I mean, I hate to be simplistic, be too simple about it, but we're only as strong as our, as our weakest supplier.
- [36:54]
C
That's true. That's true. I mean, that's all part of your risk assessment in looking at your company's ability to satisfy customer needs.
- [37:03]
B
No doubt. Okay, so turn on the page from 2025 because now we're here, both feet planted in New Year. And so, Gustav, one of my favorite parts of your time with us last year, we can actually, two years ago, I guess we can say now was you broke out your crystal ball and you shared some predictions again, a new sequel there any supply chain predictions you can share for what's going to transpire here in 2026?
- [37:28]
A
Well, Chauncey Gardner says there'll be growth in the springtime. So I'd like to say that the stability will, I think, will stabilize. People have gotten used to what's been going on and I think we will see some growth. Interest rates if they continue to drop, as we've discussed that the economy will start getting more uneven footing. So I'm cautiously optimistic and we'll continue to plow through this.
- [37:54]
B
Yes, I like that. I like that take. And gosh, I certainly hope Things still grow and. And bloom in spring. Corinne, I think he's on something there. There's a lot of different factors that are fueling heightened activity in 2026. And I know economists and there's some. There's mixed bag of things. But we got the new legislation. We got to find a new name for the big beautiful bill. We gotta really. I found I feel kind of silly saying that each and every time I reference it. But all those things come into effect here in January. Right. So we're. I'm curious about that impact and to his other point, kind of in that devil that, you know category, we've kind of been through the shock and awe that surprised a lot of folks when it comes to new trade policy and tariffs. And that's kind of settled in a little bit, which I hope will be to Gustav's point. Tailwinds. I always get tailwinds and headwinds confused. But tell it'll push us forward. Corinne, your thoughts on what we might see this year?
- [38:50]
C
Yeah, I, I like Gustav's prediction that we're going to stabilize. To me that means we're going to be less volatile. I'm sure there'll still be a range of activity that happens. But as long as we can kind of break it up and not every sector get hammered at the same time, it makes it a lot more manageable. Where 2025 we had a lot of different sectors and geographies getting hit with uncertainty at the same time. So I like that stability within a range. I think that the interest rate moves both in Europe as well as in North America are going to have the desired effect that they will stimulate the economy that they're localized to. So I think that will be good news as well. And I think that we are just scratching the surface on some of the productivity improvements we're going to see with AI So I know we spoke about some of the cybersecurity risks, but I think on the other side of the equation, companies will start to realize some of those gains from their investments in artificial intelligence in a variety of areas.
- [39:56]
B
That's right, Corinne. There's some things that we're not even they're so deep in our blind spot because we're still so early on in the modern age of AI it's going to be amazing a year from now when we do the next sequel. Gustav and Corinne, it's going to be amazing to see what we didn't even think about, what even are on our radar right now. One more thing, Karen. Based on a lot of what you shared. And who knows, we got a new Fed chair evidently coming in in in weeks ahead. That'll be interesting to see how the policies will change. But I think approaches the inventory. You've mentioned inventory a couple times, Cor. Based on all the advances with technology and AI and others, new visibility, hopefully getting deeper and deeper into the ecosystem. We've got a lot of work still do there destabilizing forces that you and Gustav both have mentioned. Maybe the pendulum always swings right from JIT to just in case and back and forth. Hopefully it'll swing a little bit more to the just in time side. We shall see. Okay, so Gustav, I gotta ask you to be another question. How can folks track you down? You mentioned a lot of different ways, a lot of different value that you and your team bring far beyond the freight payment index, which is a big one. But if folks want to reach out and have a cup of coffee and dive into anything you've shared here today, how can folks track you down?
- [41:16]
A
Well, certainly direct email gustav.combata usbank.com or just ping me on LinkedIn.
- [41:23]
B
We will do that. Outstanding. I can't wait. You know what, I'm going to ask you one more question since we're talking 20, 26, who is going to win the big game, the NFL big game, the Super Bowl? I think I can say that since we're talking about the game itself. Who's going to win, Gustav?
- [41:41]
A
I should hope the New England Patriots, okay.
- [41:44]
B
They're going to add one more trophy to their. Talk about a warehouse that they need for their trophies. Oh my gosh. We're gonna see this. So the Patriots are your favorite, Is that right?
- [41:52]
A
Favorite, of course. Okay.
- [41:55]
C
Of course. Of course. And winning. Winning never gets old, Scott. We'll build another, you know, I will.
- [42:03]
A
Say, you know, if, if the Pats, you know, can't make it, you know, certainly I, I do have a soft spot for the Bills. They've tried so many times. You know, you got to give it to them once.
- [42:14]
B
I'm with you. And by the way, if y' all have not seen, I think it's called the Four Falls of Buffalo, a terrific ESPN 30 for 30 documentary because those are some great teams, great players and they, and Buffalo does deserve, I really hope they get a trophy, NFL trophy soon. Corinne, we can probably both have a pretty safe bet on who's not going to be even in the Super Bowl. Is that right, Corinne?
- [42:39]
C
Well, I know my local team is not going to be in the Super Bowl. I know the Falcons are not going to make a showing that for, for 2026 Super Bowl. So we'll, we'll, we'll pine away for yet another season. How's that?
- [42:52]
B
Hope springs eternal, as they say. So we'll see what maybe next year brings. 2027. Gosh. All right, so let me do this. Corinne, we've covered a lot of ground with Gustav here today and really have enjoyed the conversation once again. When you think of this, you might get a toughest question. What's one of your patented key takeaways? The key takeaway from the conversation here today? Kin.
- [43:16]
C
Well, it's going to be facts. Not feeling. So Gustav shared with us that the US bank freight payment reports that are shared here on supply chain now every quarter they represent about Gustav, I think you said 40 billion in freight payments. Right. And those are actual transactions and they are audited transactions. So it's a really good indicator of what's happening in the marketplace place. As interest rates move, as artificial intelligence is leveraged in the industry, as we gain precision in our inventory investments, all of those moves are inventory in motion. They're moving from buyer to seller to consumer depending upon the industries that are served or business to business marketplaces. It's important insight. I think. Facts. Start with the facts and then add your own color commentary about your business into what's happening so that you can have that stability that Gustav talked about for your business, that you can work within a range of outcomes versus having the dynamic ups and downs that we experienced in 2025.
- [44:29]
B
Well, if I may just add.
- [44:32]
A
Yeah, please. As you know, from this past year, in 2025, we started releasing collaboration with DAT, you know, spot and contract rates. And we've just released our latest collaboration rates edition with dat, really focusing more on that spot and contract market. You'll see, I hope continued collaboration with that great organization as well.
- [44:55]
B
Outstanding. And folks can, if they reach out to you, they can get their hands on that. That newest in value twist, the rates edition. Is that right, Gustavo?
- [45:04]
A
That's correct.
- [45:05]
B
Outstanding. Okay, so I was gonna. Corinne, on. On your final key takeaway, I was just gonna add one quick thing. Own your one of your mantras of facts, not feelings. We gotta save the feelings for our football fandom and we gotta run our supply chains with facts. Would you agree with that, Corinne?
- [45:24]
C
I would. I would indeed. I think that you've got a big sports theme going today. Scott here.
- [45:30]
B
Hey, Gustav got us going.
- [45:32]
A
He did. He did.
- [45:33]
C
He is a sports fan.
- [45:35]
B
Yes. Okay, well, so let's do this big thanks. I'll tell you, Gustav Kimbata, senior vice president, head of freight payment sales with US Bank Gustav, in this sequel, you did not disappoint. Thanks so much for being here.
- [45:47]
A
Pleasure.
- [45:48]
B
And Corinne Bursa have enjoyed all of your perspective and expertise here today. I look forward to another big year of covering the movers and shakers across global supply chain. Thanks for being here today.
- [46:01]
C
Oh, I enjoyed it. Gustav, great to see you again.
- [46:03]
A
Likewise.
- [46:04]
B
And to our audience members out there, you're the most important part of any conversation we have. You're our number one priority. Really appreciate all that y' all do all the feedback. It's a blessing. Keep it coming, but you know you got homework. Yes. In the new year, we gotta get out of the the holiday doldrums, get this new year going great. Take something. One thing you heard here today from Gustav and Corinne, put it into practice. Lots of actionable pieces of perspective and resources just to take one thing right. Oh, it's all about deeds, not words. That's how we're going to continue transforming the global business world and realize more and more of the art of the possible. So with all that said, Scott Luden, the whole team wishing you all happy New Year. Have a great year. And more importantly, challenging you to do good, give forward, be the change that's needed. And we'll see you next time right back here on Supply Chain Now. Thanks for buying. Join the Supply Chain now community. For more supply chain perspectives, news and innovation, check out supply chain now.com subscribe to Supply Chain now on YouTube and follow and listen to Supply Chain Now. Wherever you get your podcasts.