Supply Chain Now: “Adapting to Change: 2025 Lessons, Supply Chain Insights, & 2026 Predictions”

Featuring: Gustav Khambatta (U.S. Bank), Hosts: Scott Luton & Corinne Bursa
Date: January 7, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode revisits the biggest supply chain developments of 2025 and looks ahead to 2026 with Gustav Khambatta, Senior VP and Head of Freight Payment Sales at U.S. Bank. The discussion centers around lessons learned, the evolving role of data and technology, the impact of AI and cybersecurity, and predictions for the coming year. Scott and Corinne guide this lively, fact-focused conversation, emphasizing how actionable data, strategic partnerships, and innovation are helping supply chain professionals adapt to new challenges.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The US Bank Freight Payment Index: Real Data, Real Impact

• Data-Driven Decisions: U.S. Bank processes over $40B in annual freight payments, auditing and cleaning this data to fuel their Freight Payment Index, which provides quarterly, regional, and national insights.
  • “We process over $40 billion in spending on an annual basis and we’re auditing that for accuracy and we’re conditioning that data so we've got good, clean, usable data…” – Gustav [08:29]
• Benchmarking Tool: The index is a public resource for the industry and offers internal benchmarking services for shippers and carriers.
• Facts, Not Feelings: Corinne highlights that this index stands out because it relies on audited transactions, not sentiment surveys.
  • “It’s actual data. It's not a survey that is reading feelings or emotions. And, you know, I'm big on facts, not feelings…” – Corinne [09:45]

2. Reflections on 2025: Less Volatile than Expected, but Stability Needed

• Tariffs & Trade: Despite expectations, 2025 proved less volatile economically; the main themes were uncertainty in tariffs and swings in inventory.
  • “Things weren't as bad as we thought they would be... it didn't produce all the big boom that we were also hoping. I think it was in the end, perhaps maybe the best we could have hoped for, somewhat stable.” – Gustav [29:54]
• Ecosystem Collaboration: The need for deeper carrier/shipper partnerships to weather changes and uncertainty.
  • “Shippers and carriers just continue to really partner, deepen their partnerships with each other, that you can’t do it alone.” – Gustav [30:36]

3. Cybersecurity & Cargo Theft: Modern Threats Require Modern Defenses

• Cybercrime via Email: Email remains the #1 vector for cybercriminals, often enabling sophisticated cargo theft.
  • “Once they get into your email... next thing you know, they have your bill of lading, they’ve got your form, they fill the form out... they’ve just taken goods and then the actual driver comes in two hours later, we already delivered.” – Gustav [00:00] / [18:02]
• Industry Underreporting: A stigma around breaches and theft means the true scale is likely higher.
  • “I think it's underreported because... there’s a stigma associated with it.” – Corinne [19:43]
• Enormous Costs: Cybercrime costs the industry trillions, and cargo theft is estimated at over $6.6B a year.
  • “The average cost of a data breach in 2025 was... $4.44 million, except in the US where it was more than double that amount.” – Scott [17:01]

4. The Rise of AI: Practical Use, Security, & Deliberate Adoption

• Responsible AI Adoption: U.S. Bank approaches AI carefully, prioritizing security and data confidentiality.
  • “You really have got to think about also the security involved, where you're getting the data from... you’re not giving proprietary information out there to the public.” – Gustav [20:27]
• Practical Applications: AI is used for document verification, fraud prevention, and analyzing vast data quickly.
  • “We're using AI to be able to start looking at those [proof of delivery] documents… verify what that document is without actually having to open it up.” – Gustav [22:35]
• Risks & Regulation: AI can also increase risk of infiltration and requires robust guardrails—authentication and regulatory developments are critical.
  • “We need to be able to discern when something is created electronically or... is an authentic document or transaction that has occurred.” – Corinne [21:48]
  • “For the first time... we had a whole section that asked about how we utilize AI and the security thereof. So this is propping up more and more…” – Gustav [23:27]
• Adoption & Sector Impact: Majority of surveyed supply chain professionals expect AI agents to manage core planning by 2026.
  • “Three out of four supply chain professionals surveyed... believe that autonomous AI agents will manage core planning tasks by as early as 2026.” – Scott [27:23]

5. Energy, Data Centers & Sustainability: The New Infrastructure Challenge

• AI’s Growing Energy Footprint: Expansion of AI and data centers is driving massive increases in energy and water consumption.
  • “Data centers consumed 4.4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023 and are expected to consume approximately 6.7 to 12%... by 2028.” – Scott [33:34]
  • “Water is the other piece too, cooling these systems down, a lot of water usage.” – Gustav [34:18]
• Urgent Efficiency Needs: The panel notes the importance of sustainable energy and infrastructure improvements, like next-gen nuclear, but recognize these changes will take time.

6. The “Facts, Not Feelings” Mantra & Inventory Planning

• Operational Excellence: Use data to guide decisions, add sector-specific context, and build resilience into planning.
  • “Facts. Start with the facts and then add your own color commentary about your business… so you can have that stability…” – Corinne [43:15]
• Inventory Strategies: Hopes that tech advances will allow a partial return to just-in-time (JIT) inventory models, after years of “just in case.”

7. Taste of 2026 Predictions

• Stability on the Horizon: Both guests predict growth in 2026 with stabilized markets, improved supply chain partnerships, more deliberate AI use, and productivity gains.
  • “There’ll be growth in the springtime. So I'd like to say that the stability will... I think we will see some growth… cautiously optimistic.” – Gustav [37:28]
  • “We're just scratching the surface on some of the productivity improvements we're going to see with AI.” – Corinne [39:55]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Cybercrime’s Evolution:
  • “The number one way cybercriminals are getting into corporate systems is via email... They know exactly what they're supposed to be picking up... load up, leave, they've just taken goods.” — Gustav [00:00]
• On Data-Driven Transformation:
  • “It’s changing. Maybe not ever so slowly, but it's changing... Evidence of that here, there and everywhere.” — Scott [10:52]
• On AI Hype vs. Reality:
  • “Everything can’t be unicorns and Care Bears and rainbows, right? We got to be realistic about the good, the bad... and in some cases, the ugly.” — Scott [21:35]
• On Building Trust:
  • “Important to have a trusted partner or trusted partners in your ecosystem that can help you... looking at some of this deeper authentication…” — Corinne [25:03]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [08:29] – What makes the US Bank Freight Payment Index unique and valuable.
• [14:50] – Cybersecurity: latest threats, true risks, and real consequences.
• [18:02] – The Email/Cargo Theft Connection: How bad actors exploit supply chains.
• [20:27] – AI adoption, risks, use cases and responsible innovation.
• [27:23] – Supply chain professionals’ expectations for AI’s role by 2026.
• [29:54] – 2025 in review: Stability, surprises, partnerships.
• [33:34] – Data center energy demands & infrastructure implications.
• [37:28] – 2026 predictions: cautious optimism for growth and stability.
• [43:15] – Final key takeaway: “Facts, not feelings” and actionable insights.

Tone and Takeaways

The discussion is pragmatic but optimistic, underscored by the hosts’ humor and dedication to data-driven leadership (“facts, not feelings”). Gustav’s expertise reinforces the need for resilience, partnership, and innovation in freight and beyond, while Corinne’s focus on actionable insights and careful risk management threads throughout. AI and cybersecurity are positioned as double-edged swords, promising both risk and reward. Looking ahead to 2026, the tone is hopeful: stability, partnership, and strategic use of technology will define success in supply chain’s next chapter.

How to Connect

• Gustav Khambatta: gustav.combata@usbank.com | LinkedIn

For quarterly deep dives and the latest supply chain insights, visit SupplyChainNow.com.
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