Supply Chain Now – “Analysis of the Q4 2025 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index”

Date: March 2, 2026
Hosts: Scott Luton, Corinne Bursa
Guests: Bobby Holland (Director, Freight Business Analytics, U.S. Bank), Nick Palmucci (Senior Director of Supply Chain, Ferguson Enterprises)

Brief Overview

This episode delivers a comprehensive analysis of the Q4 2025 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, focusing on the current state and future outlook of the U.S. domestic freight market. The hosts, joined by industry experts from U.S. Bank and Ferguson Enterprises, dissect national and regional freight trends, regulatory impacts, cost pressures, and leadership approaches relevant for supply chain professionals as economic uncertainty continues.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Importance of the Freight Payment Index

• Data Depth: U.S. Bank processed $46 billion worth of freight transactions in 2025, making the index a robust indicator of real economic and supply chain activity.

• Fact-Based Analysis: The Index uses actual transaction data, not sentiment or surveys, offering a clear market read.

  “Facts, not feelings.”
  — Corinne Bursa, [10:18]

• Macro and Micro Insights: The Index allows for both national and granular regional analysis, tracking shipment volumes, shipper spending, and capacity changes.

National Freight Market Trends (Q4 2025)

Key Takeaways:

• Tightening Capacity: Ongoing carrier exits, regulatory changes, and stricter driver requirements are reducing available capacity nationwide.

  “Industry capacity continued to shrink…driven by carrier exits, regulatory changes, and stricter driver requirements.”
  — Bobby Holland, [11:55]

• Volume & Cost Dynamics: Shipment volumes rebounded from Q3 but remain below historic levels. Costs are rising faster than volumes due to tight capacity and increasing rates.

• Regional Divergence: The Northeast and Southwest displayed sharply contrasting trends (robust growth vs. steep declines).

Practitioner Perspective:

• Commitment & Pricing: Shippers are being held to committed capacities, with extra capacity commanding higher rates.

  “Our carriers are holding us to those committed capacities and if we need additional capacity, they're charging appropriately.”
  — Nick Palmucci, [13:46]

• Shipper of Choice: Maintaining good relationships with carriers is paramount for securing favorable terms.

  “Being a shipper of choice becomes an advantage in the marketplace.”
  — Corinne Bursa, [14:06]

• Regulatory Headwinds: New Department of Transportation restrictions could impact CDL holders, possibly removing up to 200,000 drivers from the market.

Regional Analysis

West

• Freight dips slightly: Down 1.3% as port activity and consumer spending soften, but rebounds helped by imports and trade policy.

  “Freight volumes dip slightly…impacted by softer port activity and cautious consumer spending… shipper spending continue[d] to climb, up 2.6% over last quarter.”
  — Bobby Holland, [15:35]

• Practical Reality: Capacity is improving in Southern California but the Pacific Northwest remains tight, requiring alternative logistics strategies.
  — Nick Palmucci, [16:13]

Southwest

• Shipment Recovery, Cost Surge: After prior declines, shipments up 5.4% quarter-over-quarter, but annual volumes down over 30%. Capacity tightness pushed spending up 12.6%.
  — Bobby Holland, [19:26]

• Unexpected Stability: Despite regulatory concerns, Ferguson finds capacity available and rates stable, especially in project-driven non-residential sectors.
  — Nick Palmucci, [20:05]

Midwest

• Modest Volume Growth: Shipments up 3.5%, spend up 5%. Manufacturing and construction provide support, but demand from Canada and automotive remains soft.
  — Bobby Holland, [22:04]

• Carrier Behavior: Carriers are actively seeking to fill capacity due to slack in the automotive sector.
  — Nick Palmucci, [22:39]

Northeast

• Standout Strength: Shipments (+4.2%) and spend (+5.5%) lead the country, powered by strong manufacturing and high-income consumer activity, despite weak pockets in PA and NJ.
  — Bobby Holland, [24:59]

• High Demand, High Cost: Rates are notably elevated due to strong activity and tight capacity.
  — Nick Palmucci, [25:32]

Southeast

• Volume Decline, Stable Costs: Shipments down 2.4%, spend flat (+0.7%). Driven by reduced consumer confidence and caution among middle and lower-income groups.
  — Bobby Holland, [28:15]

• Florida Stands Out: Getting goods in and out of Florida is especially costly, reflecting tight capacity for residential projects.
  — Nick Palmucci, [28:54]

Broader Economic and Behavioral Trends

Consumer Confidence & Retail Impact

• Mixed Retail Signals: Holiday sales up 4.1% YoY per NRF, but December sales were flat—key sectors like furniture, clothing, and electronics declined, impacting freight flows.
  — Scott Luton, [18:04]

• Consumer Confidence Hits 12-Year Low: January 2026 data shows sentiment below pandemic-era lows, signaling potential Q1 2026 headwinds.
  — Scott Luton, [30:22]

• Correlation Nuances: Lower confidence impacts big-ticket discretionary spending (e.g., home remodels), while essentials and infrastructure-project demand are more resilient.

  “Consumer confidence may wane but that doesn't mean that they stop spending. It means that they prioritize things differently.”
  — Bobby Holland, [38:19]

Manufacturing & Trade

• Manufacturing Slump: December marked the tenth consecutive month of contraction according to ISM PMI, hitting the lowest point since October 2024.
• Tariff Impacts: U.S.-Canada trade flows are down, affecting sectors from bourbon to automotive.

Supply Chain Leadership & Strategy

Principles for Navigating Uncertainty

• Have a Roadmap: Emphasize strategy, technology, and long-term planning—expect ongoing disruptions.

  “Have a roadmap…be flexible and know something disruptive will happen.”
  — Nick Palmucci, [32:08]

• Pivot and Stay the Course: The new “never normal” requires agility, scenario planning, and contingency preparation.

• Automate & Model: Rely less on spreadsheets—use advanced tools to model scenarios and manage risk.

  “Get them out of spreadsheets, get them into solutions that help model those scenarios for their business.”
  — Corinne Bursa, [35:12]

Relationship Building

• Be a Shipper of Choice: Good carrier relations help secure capacity and favorable rates in volatile times.
• Invest in Partnerships: “You find out who your friends were during COVID—that’s for sure.”
  — Nick Palmucci, [42:59]

Looking Ahead: 2026 Freight Market Outlook

Key Projections

• Ninth Inning of Freight Recession: Capacity remains a challenge, but drastic declines are not expected. Positive long-term sentiment persists.

  “I do believe we're in the ninth inning of the freight recession—not booming. But I don't think it's going to be this free fall.”
  — Nick Palmucci, [41:26]

• Top Advice:

  • Lock in rates and capacity early
  • Conduct RFPs sooner
  • Focus on essential relationships
    — [42:20]

• Watch for:

  • Data-center construction surge (up to 3,000 US projects)
  • Ongoing regulatory and economic transformation

Overarching Guidance

• Use fact-based indices like the Freight Payment Index for decision-making.
• Pair data with “boots on the ground” perspectives for true market intelligence.

  “Facts, not feelings. Let's use this as a tool, a guide to help us all make a better impact on our businesses.”
  — Corinne Bursa, [45:11]

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “Being a shipper of choice becomes an advantage in the marketplace.”
  — Corinne Bursa, [14:06]

• “Industry capacity continued to shrink…driven by carrier exits, regulatory changes, and stricter driver requirements.”
  — Bobby Holland, [11:55]

• “Have a roadmap…be flexible and know something disruptive will happen.”
  — Nick Palmucci, [32:08]

• “Facts, not feelings.”
  — Corinne Bursa, [10:18]; [45:11]

• “You find out who your friends were during COVID—that’s for sure.”
  — Nick Palmucci, [42:59]

• “Get them out of spreadsheets…Let's get them into solutions that help model those scenarios for their business.”
  — Corinne Bursa, [35:12]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [07:09]: Q4 Theme — Tightening market, rising costs, regional divergence
• [11:55]: National trends summary by Bobby Holland
• [15:35]: Western region detailed analysis
• [19:26]: Southwest region performance and commentary
• [22:04]: Midwest trends including Canadian trade effects
• [24:59]: Northeast’s “punches above its weight” performance
• [28:15]: Southeast summary and the Florida freight conundrum
• [30:22]: Consumer confidence levels and implications
• [32:08]: Supply chain leadership insights from Ferguson
• [41:19]: Predictions for the months ahead
• [45:11]: Final key takeaway—use data, not sentiment, for decisions

Conclusion & Takeaways

• Use real transaction data, not just sentiment surveys, for planning.
• Expect continued uncertainty, but don't be paralyzed—strategic preparation and strong relationships matter more than ever.
• Be proactive: lock in commitments, invest in technology, and act as a ‘shipper of choice’.
• Regional realities differ—adjust strategy accordingly.
• Stay tuned to indices like the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for the clearest signals on supply chain health and market direction.

Links mentioned:

• Freight Payment Index (U.S. Bank)
• Ferguson Enterprises

Summary prepared for supply chain professionals seeking in-depth, actionable market intelligence from the podcast episode.