Supply Chain Now Podcast Summary

Episode Overview

Podcast: Supply Chain Now
Episode: Analysis of the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index - Q3 2025
Date: November 18, 2025
Host(s): Scott Luton & Kim Reuter
Guests:

• Bobby Holland, Director, Freight Business Analytics, U.S. Bank
• Heather Schilt, Director, Global Logistics, Fortive

Theme:
This episode delivers a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for Q3 2025. The conversation blends hard data from billions of freight transactions with practical, “boots-on-the-ground” insights from logistics executives. The episode breaks down national and regional transportation trends, the impact of macroeconomic forces (like tariffs and consumer demand), actionable strategies for shippers, and predictions for the freight and supply chain landscape ahead.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Podcast Introduction & Data Context

• The hosts position Supply Chain Now as a leading source of industry insights, highlighting the vital role played by the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index—a database drawing on $43B in annual transactions, offering timely, data-driven market views.

• Notable opening theme: Freight volumes are down, but shipper spend is up (00:03).

  “It’s an interesting contradiction when you see that freight volumes are down significantly, but then you have that clear signal of weaker demand. But our spending is up as shippers, so that tells me we’re not really hauling less, but what we’re hauling is actually costing more.” —Heather Schilt (14:17)

2. Meet the Panel: Expertise & Global Perspectives (04:06–09:13)

• Heather Schilt (Fortive): Leads global logistics, 20 years in the industry, active on shipper councils, focused on cost savings and network innovation (08:16).
• Bobby Holland (U.S. Bank): Oversees freight business analytics, backbone of the Freight Payment Index.
• Kim Reuter: Podcast co-host and data enthusiast, advocates actionable data for supply chain decisions.
• The team shares recent travel and industry anecdotes, creating an energetic, collegial atmosphere.

3. The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index Explained (10:52–11:44)

• Definition: A quarterly, chained index measuring truck freight market changes in shipments and spend, both nationally and regionally.
• Purpose: Offers another data lens for shippers and logistics providers, vital for short-term planning and trend analysis.
• New Feature: Integration of DAT freight rate data for deeper rate visibility.

4. National Market Analysis — Four Key Takeaways

Presented by Bobby Holland (12:19–13:23)

1. National Decline: US freight market declined due to tariffs, manufacturing contraction, slowed housing starts, and reduced consumer spending—tightening market capacity and raising costs.
2. Pressure & Policy: Freights and spending reflect ongoing industry pressures and recent policy changes, particularly tariffs. National declines were offset by regional strengths in the Northeast and West.
3. Significant Volume Drop: Shipments have declined >40% since 2020, with only a brief uptick in Q2 2025.
4. Rising Rates: Modest increases in spot/contract rates and fuel costs in Q3 2025, further pushing up costs.

“Shipments have declined more than 40% since 2020, apart from a brief uptick in Q2... volumes have dropped each quarter for the last three years.” —Bobby Holland (12:19)

5. Shipper Strategies in Response to Market Contradictions

Heather Schilt's Practical Advice (14:17–15:42)

• Urges shippers to review carrier contracts, diversify carrier mix, explore alternate modes, and closely monitor lane cost and outside influences like tariffs.
• Confirms increased shipper spend despite lower volumes—what’s hauled costs more.

6. Regional Breakdown: Five U.S. Regions

6.1 West (17:13–19:37)

• Data Highlights: Both shipments (+4.4%) and spend (+9%) up—the largest gain in four years, driven by strong imports and housing starts.
• Observations:
  • Capacity is improving as port volume rises.
  • Housing starts contributing, but related in part to post-disaster rebuilding after fires (Kim Reuter).

6.2 Southwest (21:24–23:09)

• Data Highlights: Sharpest regional volume drop: Shipments down 15.7%, negligible spend increase.
• Observations:
  • Trade (border) lanes especially impacted.
  • Shippers need flexibility in routing and close monitoring of risk/service.

“If you’re operating in or sourcing from one of these weaker regions, you may face steeper risk or service issues.” —Heather Schilt (22:04)

6.3 Midwest (24:52–26:24)

• Data Highlights: Shipments down 2.2%, spend down 1.4%; affected by reduced consumer demand, fewer Canadian crossings, and manufacturing weakness.
• Observations:
  • Tariffs hitting Midwest manufacturing hardest.
  • Potential for service issues as carriers reposition assets due to weak demand.

6.4 Northeast (27:11–29:00)

• Data Highlights: Shipments up slightly (+0.6%), spend up 5%.
• Observations:
  • Port activity and dense population driving relative strength.
  • Potential for tightening capacity; revisit contracts and plan proactively.

6.5 Southeast (30:12–32:07)

• Data Highlights: Shipments down 2.1%, spend up 1.6%.
• Observations:
  • Sluggish labor market, reduced spending, weak manufacturing, and decreased tourism.
  • Politics and government employment contributing to volatility (Kim Reuter).

7. Macro Factors Impacting Freight & Supply Chain

• Housing Starts: Deep ties to freight volumes across all regions; current declines in permits and starts likely to carry through Q4 and Q1 (23:09–24:52; 41:48–42:25).

  “How much housing starts is really playing a part of this impact...the percentage and the heft of that impact seems to start to really outweigh some of the other things.” —Kim Reuter (41:48)

• Consumer Spending: Forrester and NRF data shows people are cutting back on big purchases and retail spending may weaken moving into 2026 (26:24–29:00).
• Labor Market: The Conference Board points to a normalization since the pandemic but warns of weakening components; continued uncertainty and tariff pressures may further reduce hiring (32:07–34:05).
• Trade Uncertainty: Cited as the top concern for manufacturers, affecting decision-making and supply flows (19:37–21:24).

8. Future Outlook & Prognostication (34:05–37:19)

• Supply Chain Leadership:

  “We’ve got a lot of disruption going on...companies are really having to rethink our sourcing, shifting trade lanes, and find creative ways to mitigate costs. It’d be good if we could get back to more stability and keep the economy running.” —Heather Schilt (34:05)

• Freight Market Forecast: Continued market softening expected into Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, especially as pre-bought inventory and tariff pressures work through the system (36:25–37:19).

  “I don’t see us seeing a big uptake in Q4 in any freight. I think it’s going to continue to soften and I think into Q1 it’s going to continue to soften.” —Kim Reuter (36:25)

• Panel Consensus: Panelists agree on a “facts, not feelings” approach (37:31).

9. Index & Rate Insights

• DAT Data Integration: New freight rate insights in the Index empower shippers to benchmark their rates, avoid overpaying, and understand regional cost nuances (38:54–40:14).

  “It’s the age-old question: How much should I be paying? ... This is great that we’re giving a snapshot.” —Kim Reuter (38:54) “As a shipper, we always challenge ourselves: are we buying best? So something like that gives us at least a little visibility into the market...” —Heather Schilt (39:36)

• How to Subscribe:

  “Freight.usbank.com ... it'll be delivered to your email inbox every quarter.” —Bobby Holland (38:09)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Freight volumes are down even though costs are rising... transportation market continues to tighten the third quarter.”
  —Bobby Holland (07:34)
• “We're not really hauling less, but what we're hauling is actually costing more.”
  —Heather Schilt (14:17)
• “Everybody's just trying to figure it out. It's a day to day basis right now.”
  —Kim Reuter (16:00)
• “Facts not feelings... we've got the deal in facts as in supply chain. That's how stuff gets done.”
  —Scott Luton (37:31)
• “Relationships matter, always have, always will, especially for folks that invest in them rather than treat them very transactionally.”
  —Scott Luton (31:17)
• “It’d be good if we could get back to more stability... The supply chain is really what keeps the economy running and communities running for that matter.”
  —Heather Schilt (34:05)

Important Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Introduction & Contradiction in Data | 00:03 | | Panel introductions & expertise | 04:06–09:13 | | U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index explained | 10:52–11:44 | | National Key Takeaways | 12:19–13:23 | | Practical advice for shippers | 14:17–15:42 | | Regional breakdown: West | 17:13–19:37 | | Regional breakdown: Southwest | 21:24–23:09 | | Regional breakdown: Midwest | 24:52–26:24 | | Regional breakdown: Northeast | 27:11–29:00 | | Regional breakdown: Southeast | 30:12–32:07 | | Labor market outlook | 32:07–34:05 | | Supply chain leadership & predictions | 34:05–37:19 | | Index features & rate benchmarking | 38:54–40:14 | | Final takeaways: the impact of housing starts | 41:48–42:25 |

Actionable Takeaways

• Monitor Lane-Level Costs: Shippers should continually reassess carrier contracts and routes, exploring alternative carriers and modes where market softening presents opportunities.
• Watch Macroeconomic Indicators: Housing starts, consumer spending, manufacturing data, and tariff/trade policies will shape freight demand in the quarters ahead.
• Lean on Data, Not Gut: Use indices and market benchmarks (like U.S. Bank’s Index and DAT) for grounded, actionable decisions.
• Invest in Relationships: Even during market softness, collaborative relationships with carriers can be a strategic advantage.
• Prepare for Ongoing Softness: Most regions face continued weakness, with only the West and Northeast showing signs of resilience.

Conclusion

The Q3 2025 edition of Supply Chain Now’s Freight Payment Index analysis offers a sobering but actionable view: Amid softening volumes and persistent cost pressures, shippers must stay agile, data-driven, and proactive in managing partnerships and networks. The expert panel unpacks not just the “what” behind the numbers, but the “how” for navigating an uncertain supply chain landscape.

Find the full U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index and subscribe for future updates at freight.usbank.com.

Connect with panelists Kim Reuter and Heather Schilt on LinkedIn for ongoing industry perspectives.