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A
Curious about the latest in the world of freight and how it impacts you and your business? Dive into our exclusive Release of the U.S. bank Freight payment Index. Gain deep insights from the billions of transactions they handle each quarter. Visit usbank.com freight index to explore the release and sign up for quarterly updates for a dynamic take on this information and to learn what's happening now in the business world. Stay in the loop by subscribing to Supply chain now on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. It's an interesting contradiction when you see that freight volumes are down significantly, but then you have that clear signal of weaker demand. But our spending is up as shippers, so. So that tells me we're not really hauling less, but what we're hauling is actually costing more.
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B
Welcome to Supply Chain now, the number one voice of Supply Chain. Join us as we share critical news, key insights and real supply chain leadership from across the globe. One conversation at a time.
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C
Hey, hey.
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B
Good morning, good afternoon, good evening wherever you may be. Scott Luton and Kim order with you here on Supply Chain now. Hey Kim, how you doing today?
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D
I'm doing great. Thanks for having me back.
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B
Oh terrific. Hey, I couldn't miss it. You're a big get and I'll tell you, Yesterday you spent 12 hours out in the oyster farms in beautiful Virginia weather. Man, I can't see how we would better that day yesterday, huh?
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D
It was exhausting. It was a great day, but it was a 12 hour photo shoot and it was. It's probably the longest I've done, but it was great. We got a lot of great footage. Beautiful weather.
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B
Could not have been easier year outstanding seafood supply chain. More to come. But folks, today we continue a long running quarterly series, a popular informative series that we get a ton of feedback around. We're going to be sharing key insights from the latest quarterly edition of one of the leading transportation industry resources. It's the US Bank Freight Payment Index this time for Q3 2025. This is one of my favorite ongoing shows because it is incredible. It's incredibly informative. Number one, it provides in the no market analysis that you can't find a lot of places. And not only do we share what's going on from a data standpoint, but we marry that with boots on the ground in market executive practitioner perspective from Kim and our guest. Get ready folks. And we're not only going to get a good sense of what transpired in third quarter 2025, but we're going to be sharing a few nuggets. That's Going to help you prep for where we are now, where we're heading. And I tell you, Kim, as you know, a lot of business leaders and supply chain practitioners lean on resources like the Freight Pain Index to identify trends, plan, project, create productive conversations and much, much more. Great show coming up. One last nugget. You want to watch such a great resource? Well, because U.S. bank processed $43 billion worth of transactions in 2024 alone. And that's what provides the data, the data which is central to today's show and the Freight Payment Index and all those data driven insights, exceptional commentary. Well, that's what we're providing here today, Kim. Lots of golden nuggets here today, huh?
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D
Always a good one. This is one of my favorite shows. I've gotten the privilege to do it a few times before and I love that it is so data driven. That's my, as you guys know, the queen of data. So that's my favorite part about it is we get to actually look at some real data.
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B
I'm with you. I'm with you. And folks, interesting to note, the U.S. bank freight payment Index is released each quarter and it's free to sign up. All right, so Kim, I want to introduce our wonderful guest here today. I know you're ready because you're always ready. So I'm going to dive right in. Let's welcome in Bobby Holland, Director Freight business analytics at U.S. bank and backed by proper demand, Heather Schilt, Director, Global Logistics Fortive.
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C
Hey.
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B
Hey, Bobby. Great to have you again. How are you doing?
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C
Doing well. Great to be back.
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B
And as always, you're bringing incredible business leaders and a repeat guest with you. Heather, welcome, welcome. I tell you, you hit it out of the park last time you're with us. It's so great to have you back on the show here today.
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A
Thank you. Thank you.
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B
Okay, so I want to do this, as Kim knows, we like starting with fun, warmer questions and Bobby certainly knows by now. Heather, we'll start with you. You have had some incredible business travel this year. You've gone to at least France and Germany. I'm so jealous. Tell us if you would, about just one of your many highlights of that, those great trips.
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A
Yes. So I had the opportunity to go to both countries. I also went to Sweden, which I forgot about in Mexico, so but all for work. And I always feel so blessed to be able to travel for our company. But the highlight really was first time to all of those locations, all of those sites and was able to engage with our team there, build relationships and we did logistics workshops in all of those locations to identify cost savings opportunities, challenges, and walked away like re. Energized with a plan. With a plan and a path forward.
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B
Oh, I love it. I love it. I can't wait to learn more. You and I are going to have to grab a sandwich so I can dive into all those conversations now. Bobby just got back from Rome. Oh, my gosh, Bobby, what was one of your many favorite memories from a great trip to Italy?
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C
Probably going to Florence and having the world renowned state Florentine.
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B
Really?
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C
Right.
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B
Okay, man. Was it, was it better than what you thought it would be?
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C
It was definitely better than what I thought it would be. I've been through Rome in the airports a few times, but I wasn't really that impressed. But we had family that just got back and had a blast. So we decided to make that our home base. And then we took a side trip to Florence and also to Bologna. So it was cool to get to see, you know, three areas of Italy that I hadn't seen yet. Primarily, we usually go to Sicily. In Tuscany, when we go, hey, you.
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B
See, Ken, we start asking Bobby more questions, we learn more about these incredible adventures he's been on. Man, I'm jealous. All right, so Kim, my question to you is a tough one. As we heard Tether and Bobby's world travels, which we learned so much from these wonderful world travels. So Italy, France or Germany, if we offered you, Kim Reuter, a fully paid week long trip leaving today. Where are you going?
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D
I'm going to go to Italy. I'm not going to lie about it. I love art. I. I've been to Italy before. It's a beautiful country, has so much diversity. The food is amazing, the wine is amazing. It would be Italy hands down.
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B
Okay. Hey, I can't argue with that at all. And it sounds great. Let's. We're leaving at 4:05, okay?
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D
Exactly. Okay, great.
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A
All right.
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B
We got a lot to get to here today. Heather, Bobby and Kim, a lot to dive into. And I want to start with this Bobby truckload of insights and takeaways coming on time in full. But if you hadn't. That's right. You know, I love my dad supply chain jokes. I just. But if you had to pack it all into like a one sentence theme here today, what would it be, Bobby?
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C
Well, basically we see freight volumes are down even though costs are rising. Basically, it looks like the transportation market continues to tighten the third quarter.
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B
Okay. All right. And we're going to dive a lot more beyond just a One sentence headline, so get ready. But that was a good theme. What we capture. And before we get into nine. Yeah, that's right, count them, nine critical takeaways from the U.S. bank Freight Payment Index for Q3, 2025. I want to double down on some context. So, Heather, as I mentioned, it is wonderful to have you back with us here today, but let's make sure folks know a little bit about you. Our new audience members know about you and what the fortive team does in a nutshell. Hi, everyone.
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A
Pleasure to be back with the team here. So, I'm Heather Schill. I lead logistics globally for Fortive. I am entering my 20th year in logistics. Have the college reunion on deck this weekend. But 13 of those years have been with fortive. And in addition to my day job with fortive leading logistics, I also sit on a number of councils and advisory boards where I like connecting with other shippers and try to share on linked. So we were founded in 2016 off the heels and legacy of Danaher and we are all about, as you can see here, safety technology. We like to say that we innovate essential technologies to keep our world safe and productive. We have intelligent operating solutions and advanced healthcare solutions where we want to make an impact on fields like workplace safety environments and healthcare.
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B
Heather, that is outstanding and I love the missional aspect of all that. The purposeful aspect of your mission, I should say. And we need more companies like fortive and more incredible leaders like Heather. So thanks again for being here. Okay, so Kim, let's do this. We're about to dive in. Bobby's about to tell us for our new audience members how the US bank freight payment Index works and all.
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D
But.
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B
But let's get your perspective. How do industry leaders like yourself utilize resources like the freight Payment Index? Tell us more, Kim.
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D
So, as I've said, this is one of my favorite calls because of all the data that's provided. As we know, the index isn't necessarily predictive, but it gives us really good quarterly data. I don't want to say near time, but pretty close to the end of quarter. So it's actionable. I think is what I'm getting at here is that it's not stale data, it's not six months old. We're getting it on a regular basis. So I love the data and how I use it and I encourage my clients to use it, is use it for trending. What's going on? What may we expect in the next quarter? Do we have certain regions that may be struggling and perhaps we can take advantage of a software market somewhere. Those are how, that's how I use these tools.
- [10:24]
B
I love it. And you know, we can learn some powerful lessons by better understanding the past, particularly in business and supply chain management. So good stuff there, Kim. Okay, Bobby, I'm gonna bring you back in here. And especially for our new audience members, you know, we've been working together probably five or six years unpacking all of this supply chain goodness. But for our new audience members, would you share briefly what the U.S. bank freight payment Index is, what it analyzes and of course, how it works?
- [10:53]
C
Yeah, the Freight payment index is U.S. bank's view of the truck freight marketplace. As you pointed out earlier, $43 billion annually in transactions payments. Transactions generates a lot of data. So it enables us to provide what we consider to be a different view of the marketplace. It's a chain based quarterly measurement of changes in the market on both shipments and spend. It's just another set of data points for the user community, the truck freight market to use in making business decisions. And I appreciate the way that Kim put it when she mentioned the fact that we have the national overview, but we also have the regional perspective because when we state what is happening nationally, those effects can trickle down and affect each region differently. So that's what we provide to the, to the customers.
- [11:44]
B
Outstanding. And of course also in a new addition here in recent months, incredible freight rate data powered by our friends at DAT makes it, makes it even better. That is outstanding, Bobby. Okay, so now we are going to dive deeper into nine. Yes, count them, nine key takeaways from the Q3 2025 US Bank Freight Payment Index. And we're going to start nationally. Right. We've got four key takeaways from the national market. And Bobby, give us those four key takeaways.
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C
Okay, so nationally the US Freight market declined, as we stated, largely due to tariffs and manufacturing contraction. And this is what led to the reduced volumes as well as being affected by housing starts and consumer spending slowing. And this basically, like I said, resulted from our viewpoint in tightened capacity which drove up shipping costs. The second one is that freight volumes and spending Trends in Quarter 3 reflected ongoing industry pressures and more recent policy changes. Again, tariffs are top of mind a lot of other things that affect truckers, with national declines being offset by regional strength in the Northeast and the west regions. The third one is that shipments have declined more than 40% since 2020, apart from a brief uptick in Q2 of this year. Shipment volumes have dropped each quarter for the last three years. And Then finally the fourth one, there was modest increases in spot and contract rates as well as fuel costs in the third quarter. And these are also elements that contribute to higher costs that we saw in the third quarter.
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B
Okay, outstanding. And I love Bobby's approach. Him and the team, they give you the nine key takeaways. If you forget everything else, you got to have that front center on your radar. I want to add one more. This is not part of the nine, but this is certainly a big thing that was at play in third quarter and really for years. So check this out. This is reported by the World Economic Forum. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Yes, there is one. As we try to quantify this historic record levels of uncertainty here in the US and across the globe, not just in third quarter, but really for years now. And all of that, of course, was a major factor in the freight market and everything else. And look at that spike in August. Oh, my goodness. Okay, so let's do this. Heather, when you heard some of Bobby's key takeaways, nationally speaking, and you think about what you're seeing as a global leader in supply chain logistics, your thoughts?
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A
Yeah, so I try to look at it from a shipper's lens because I'm in it every day. And I think it's an interesting contradiction when you see that freight volumes are down significantly, but then you have that clear signal of weaker demand. But our spending is up as shippers, so that tells me we're not really hauling less, but we, what we're hauling is actually costing more. And I think what Bobby touched on with, you know, things that are going on in the market with capacity, driver, equipment availability, all the trade and tariff pressures, like, this is something that I'm dealing with and other shippers are dealing with on a daily basis. And I was thinking, like, what could shippers do in a market? Like, you know, what we're seeing right now in Q3. And I kind of put together kind of a few, a few things, but, you know, review carrier contracts, you know, in that regional perspective, which we'll get into later, you know, to understand how things may be shifting, making sure that you have a good carrier mix with depth. So you've got a mix of smaller carriers, alternate modes, intermodal trucking, like, and just really understanding, like, your cost per lane, and then continuing to monitor everything that's going on with trade and tariffs, those outside factors that, that are influencing what's taking place.
- [15:42]
B
Heather, I love it. You come with solutions. You come with solutions. I love it. Kim, she also touched on pressures. Bobby touched on pressures. Where is David Bowie and Freddie Mercury right now? Because they seeing the supply chain theme. What do you think? What are your observations nationally, Kim?
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D
So what I see is a lot of confusion and we kind of see a little bit in the data, right. Prices are going up, but actual loads are softening. So we see a lot of this sort of weird behavior though. Obviously Northeast and the west, those are shipping lanes. That's why they continue to stay strong. I'm very worried about the Southwest because that's a lot of like construction and manufacturing. We're supposed to be able to make that better. So, you know, that's what I'm seeing or those are my concerns. I would say as far as shippers and trucking companies, they're just, they're. Everybody's just trying to figure it out. It's a day to day basis right now.
- [16:32]
B
Yep, we're all day to day. As I think ESPN and Sports center said at some point in time, not just athletes, supply chain pros are all day to day businesses day to day. Well, so Kim, your perfect segue, you mentioned one of the regions and this is really my favorite part of this quarterly discussion and the analysis you'll find in the US Bank Freight Payment Index. We're going region by region, coast to coast to, to identify some of those regional nuances and particulars impacting the freight market in the broader industry. And up first, we are going out to the West. So Bobby, let's talk about your key takeaway or two from the west region.
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C
Okay. So as we talked about before, you know, the regional perspective helps to kind of put the national view in perspective. So when you look at the national shipments were down 2.9% over the quarter and spend was up 2% over that same period. But when we look at the west region, the numbers are both up. Shipments were up 4.4% and spend was up 9% over the last quarter. And we see that the west region experienced significant growth in both shipments and spend during the third quarter. And this is generally driven by increased imports, strong housing starts, and then it's the largest sequential gain in four years.
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B
Largest sequential gain in four years. And Bobby mentioned lots of things that played there in the west region. Heather, I am dying to get your take. What do you see out in the west?
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A
And I think, yeah, the west is a key player. And Kim mentioned it too, just based on the location of the port and the importance of the port. And I think, you know, we're starting to see those moderate improvements as the port volumes and then also as shipper, shippers assess like their inventory levels, you know, we did a lot of stocking ahead like for tariffs and then, you know, where, where are we out at now with those replenishment levels and has that started to stabilize? I think that shippers using the west coast gateways might find that capacity is improving, as we said. But just continue to watch for those that volatility, like if we see any shifts in imports there.
- [18:53]
B
Yep. Heather, again, I love your approach. You come with observations and things, the things that folks have to have on their radar. Kim, you always do the same. I think you and Heather might be second cousins. Who knows? What do you see out in the West?
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D
Well, I don't know our cousins, we're both from east coast class, but we are definitely supply chain sisters.
- [19:15]
B
That's right.
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D
We can definitely say that. So, you know, we talk about the west and I think the thing that I heard in there was about housing starts and that is definitely contributing. But we have to recognize that that came out of some pretty bad stuff. The housing building going on on the west coast is a result of all the fires. And while it's driving the freight industry, it is sad on how it happened.
- [19:38]
B
Yeah, no doubt. All right, so. And we all, of course, hope that continued recovery takes place for all the families out there, all the families in Jamaica and all other points. Yeah, yeah, man, it's been, it's been something weather wise. Okay. So I want to touch on something. Your manufacturing is at play across coast to coast and all the different regions as well. And I've got these great nuggets that I mind from the national association for Manufacturers. National association of Manufacturers. So they put out regular surveys, kind of pulse checks of manufacturing leaders. And check this out. For third quarter 2025, they pulsed a lot of manufacturing leaders here in the US and let's see. Hiring. Sluggish orders are solved. Production has seen some upticks, margins have been challenged. All that generally speaking. But look at this. The NAM had two key findings from their polling. Number one, the leaders business outlook for the months ahead. What rose from 2 from second quarter last year? I'll take any good news wherever I can find it. And it was a pretty significant jump there, almost 10 full points. And then the second thing that's probably not going to surprise anybody, the top business challenge in the manufacturing sector, which certainly we see play out in the domestic freight market. Trade uncertainties. Raise your hand if you have trade uncertainty, folks. Check out all the full report on the survey over@nam.org okay, we are going from the west to the southwest. Right, the southwest region, which makes up four states. Really important. I think Kim's already mentioned the southwest. All right, so Bob, let's start with you though. Key takeaway or two related to the southwest region.
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C
So the southwest region saw the sharpest regional drop in freight volumes yet. Chipper space, increased cost due to tightened capacity driven by policy changes and economic weakness which impacted trade, labor and construction. We see this reflected in the numbers where shipments were down from the last quarter 15.7%, but spend was up a very modest third of a percent. So interesting numbers for that, that rage undoubtedly.
- [21:50]
B
All these numbers are always interesting, especially to process them and kind of marry them with boots on the ground. Leadership perspectives. And Heather, your thoughts on what you're seeing in the Southwest?
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A
Yeah, so like Bobby said, with the southwest being one of the softest regions with the volumes declining, I think about the trade lanes there with border trade. And if you're a shipper operating in that area, you'll want to keep an eye out for, you know, different routing options and capacity availability. You know, I think like why the regional view on something like this is important is because if you are operating in or sourcing from one of these weaker regions, then you may face like steeper risk or service issues.
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B
Yep. We got to challenge all assumptions. We gotta challenge all assumptions. This is one of the kind of main themes you're urging us here today. Carrier mix lanes, you name it. All right, Kim, Southwest, what are you seeing?
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D
I obviously a lot of softness, which is very concerning. I'm a little bit perplexed about what's causing it, to be honest with you. Manufacturing, a lot of that is happening in the Southwest. So that's what I'm thinking is causing the softness. But it's troubling for sure.
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B
It is, Kim, it is. Well, you know, I'm going to touch on one thing that certainly is always a factor and that's construction activity. Right. You're going to hear reference housing starts quite regularly throughout the conversation. Always a factor in the domestic freight market. Think about it. New housing requires all sorts of materials that's got to be made and shipped to the site and high volumes, especially for those multi family developments. Right. Lumber, steel, cement, drywall, windows, H VAC systems, you name it. Well, check this out. According to the latest published U.S. census Bureau information for August 2025, U.S. housing Starts across the country were down in August from July activity month over month by about 8.5% and they are down year over year from August 2024, about 6%. Now, if you look at further upstream though, housing permits. Right. Which of course has to happen. So they tell me before housing starts happen. Permits were down 3.7% in July and they were down 11% year over year in August 202025 from August 2024. So we'll probably see, based on that permit data, fourth quarter housing start numbers. It'll play in factor into that and of course, freight activity. Now, one last note. A lot of this data is delayed because we got to get the. The government back up and running. Because if you go looking for data, those folks are out right now, which is painful all the way around. Okay, so let's do this. Let's talk about the Midwest. Right, the Midwest region, which is the heart of the country, I would reckon. Bobby, tell us what you saw key takeaway wise from the Midwest.
- [24:53]
C
Well, because of reduced consumer demand, fewer Canadian border crossings, and again, the overall manufacturing weakness that we've discussed, we saw numbers in the Midwest. You know, shipments were down 2.2% over last quarter and spend was down 1.4% over last quarter. So modest numbers, but still, you know, not the direction that we'd like to see them go.
- [25:15]
B
That's right. That is right. All right, so Heather, when we think of the Midwest, beautiful places to visit up there, what are you seeing domestic freight, market wise?
- [25:27]
A
I think, you know, as Bobby said, the Midwest remains under pressure. We've got that manufacturing softness. We've got muted freight demand that are keeping volumes down. The upside for shippers is maybe the rates may become more favorable, but you've got to watch for service consistency, which could be a challenge if, say, carriers realize there's performance issues in this, this region and then they choose to reposition their assets elsewhere. So that will just be a watch point there.
- [25:59]
B
I've got a CL. I'm up to about 12 watch points from you so far, Heather. Full truckload. Kim, when it comes to the Midwest, what are you seeing?
- [26:08]
D
So the Canadian imports are probably one of the biggest impact that we have here. But we also have to remember we have a lot of manufacturing in the Midwest. All of our car manufacturers, we've seen a softening in that manufacturing because of the tariffs. I would say that the Midwest is probably getting hit the hardest with the tariffs.
- [26:24]
B
Yep, Yep. All right. And one other thing that Bobby touched on, I think in each of these regions, consumer spending, which is something we always keep our finger on. The pulse Subs One of those watch points that Heather mentioned earlier so get this. According to a third quarter 2025 survey of US online adults by Forrester Research, it shows that 40% expect to spend less on large household appliances in the months ahead, and 39% are going to be spending less on furniture and home furnishing furnishings. So we'll see how those consumer trends will impact the freight market in the months ahead. Okay, so from the Midwest to the Northeast, a region that never sleeps, maybe. Bobby, your key takeaways from the Northeast.
- [27:11]
C
Well, the Northeast, it saw increased freight shipments and spending in the third quarter, and this is largely driven by some manufacturing growth, but higher consumer spending. And so this was reflected in the numbers. We had a modest improvement in shipments of 0.6% and spend was up 5%. So again, interesting numbers, but the Northeast is always an interesting one to watch because it's the smallest region. But because of the population density, it. It reads like a, like a larger, like a larger area of the country.
- [27:41]
B
So yes, one little tick of that needle based on that population can really be felt Northeast. Heather, what are you seeing?
- [27:52]
A
So with those shipments and spending both, you know, holding up better than other regions, this tells me that maybe this part of the country, as Bobby said, is seeing stronger freight activity by those consumer demand increases. And also just with the ports being there, I think for shippers, you know, this means that capacity could tighten there. So this is something we would want to watch for and really stay ahead on planning our loads and also making sure that we've got contracts in place with the carriers.
- [28:25]
B
That's right. And we revisit those contracts and we lean into technology, some credit, some incredible things that technology is doing with load planning and overall transportation management. Kim, the Northeast, your thoughts?
- [28:39]
D
First, I'm not sure if West Virginia is going to consider itself Northeast, but we can decide that. Talk about that later. But you know, I kind of. Heather, Echo, what Heather said is that the ports are really kind of keeping the freight demand going on there and high population, as Bobby has said. Nothing. You know, this is pretty typical for the Northeast. Where do they mimic what's going on in the West?
- [29:01]
B
Yeah, that is right. And you know what? Well, y' all weigh in. Is it West Virginia?
- [29:06]
D
Bobby?
- [29:07]
B
Bobby. We'll see. But I want to touch on one more thing. I hit last time on consumer spending. It's close neighbor retail sales. So y' all check this out. So data released by the CNBC NRF retail monitor shows that nationally retail sales dropped a bit in September. A lot of data shows that back to school spending was either flat or even decreased this year. However, as you can see here, overall year over year, retail spending has remained solid throughout 3Q 2025. And looking ahead, some analysts say retail spending may well weaken through the rest of 2025 and that malaise may linger moving into 2026. Amongst many things, some of the spending headwinds include inflation and price pressures. I think that's one of the big themes here today. And slower, slower job and income growth. Okay. We are going to bring it home, at least for some of us. I hail in the metro Atlanta area. So let's talk about the Southeast region. My favorite, Bobby, your key takeaways of what you're seeing there.
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C
Well, in the Southeast, shipments were down 2.1%, spend was up 1.6%. And the things that were impacting the Southeast region are a soft labor market, reduced household spending, weaker manufacturing. And something that's been of note for the longest is decreased tourism and other impact of the tariffs, perhaps.
- [30:34]
B
Bobby. That's right. I was looking at metro Atlanta tourist data and international tourism in particular is down despite being home of the world's busiest airport. And of course, I was in Vegas earlier this quarter and of course Vegas has been hit as well. Hotel occupancies are really down. Heather, when it comes to the Southeast region, what are you seeing?
- [30:55]
A
Southeast still sluggish. We saw in the report minimum volume gains, but in those year over year, numbers remain weak. So I would say if you're shipping out of this region, there's could be some opportunity for cost savings. But obviously as a shipper, you have to balance that with making sure you've got reliable and strong carrier partnerships.
- [31:17]
B
That is right. Relationships matter, always have, always will, especially for folks that invest in them rather than treat them very transactionally. Good stuff, Heather. Kim, in the Southeast, which I'm looking hard on the map. And you know what? Virginia is in Northeast. Hey, what do you see in the Southeast?
- [31:38]
D
So I live in Virginia so close in the Southeast. We're all Southeasterns today. And so again, we're seeing a decline and softening the market. The Southeast has a lot of impact with politics. So all the uncertainty around layoffs and the firings and all of this stuff has been happening with our government employees. The Southeast has a very large percentage of government employees. So I think that is contributing to what we're seeing here.
- [32:07]
B
Yep. Good stuff, Kim. Well, great analysis. Yeah, all good stuff. Okay. And I want to double down on, you know, Bobby touched on the labor market. It's come up a lot of times in really all the regions. Bobby referenced it in the Southeast. And I want to bring in this data here. This is the Conference Board Employment Trends Index. It's a terrific regular measurement of payroll employment in the U.S. so get this. I am not an economist. I'm a, quote one, okay? The economy was not my forte in college, but Mitchell Barnes is an economist at the Conference Board and he spoke on the August 20122025 index saying, quote, the ETI, which is this index, slid further in August, reaching its lowest level since early 2021. The ETI peaked two or three years ago and has been falling ever since, where the decline likely, likely captured normalization of the distorted post pandemic labor market. Not necessarily weakness. However, the degree of weakness among August's components is disconcerting. And Mitchell continued layoffs and unemployment remain low as companies navigate through continued uncertainty. But tariff pressures are expected to intensify, raising inflation and reducing consumption, which could restrain activity and dampening future hiring. End quote. So the labor market, I'll tell you, it's interesting to dive in and slice it up and from a variety of perspectives. All right, so we've tackled now nine key takeaways, thanks to Bobby Holland and the team over at U S Bank and of course the Freight Payment Index. And we're also going through five regions and gotten Bobby, Heather's and Kim's perspectives there. Heather, here's an interesting question for you. So we have created a new position, a new universal position of authority. If you were the world president of global supply chain for a day, what would you like to see? And feel free to offer any prognostications, either one. Your thoughts?
- [34:05]
A
Heather, I think this is a great idea for a new role. Not, not for me personally, for someone else, because this is a big stressful job. But I try to break it down. I put thought into this question on more balance, like we were talking about, less uncertainty. And so for that piece, just we've got a lot of disruption going on and geopolitical stability and trade routes, the tariff environments shaking things up. So companies like myself and other shippers are really having to rethink our sourcing, shifting our trade lanes, buying creative ways to mitigate our costs. And so it'd be good if we could get back to more stability and you know, keeping trade policy in place but having more stable environment. I also thought like big picture. I mean, I think that consumers and business leaders now appreciate the value of supply chain more than ever. You know, all the past few years, what we've gone through has really shown that and you know, the supply chain is really what keeps the economy running and communities running for that matter. And then big picture also I was thinking, you know, supply chain is such an important field and just want to see like continuing inspiring the next generation to help like young people. Like see we talked earlier about how data driven this field is and like number one the tech piece and where we're all we're going with AI and analytics and just you know how like it's just an exciting time to be part of this industry and to just keep that piece of it going.
- [35:50]
B
Very, very well said. And just, just to clarify, so if we extend the offer to you to become world president, global supply chain it down.
- [35:59]
A
Right. I, I, I've got some recommendations for others. I have work aids like that role never pay enough.
- [36:10]
B
That role would never pay. Yeah. No matter what it is at a zero or two. Kim, a kind of a different question for you and feel free to weigh in as a, as world president global supply chain for a day. But what do you see maybe taking place in the freight market in the months ahead?
- [36:25]
D
You know, I talk about a lot about ocean freight too and they're tightly linked as we know. As we saw west coast and Northeast. I think we're going to continue to see a softening in the market, unfortunately and I think we're going to start to see it in the Northeast and the west where it's been somewhat insulated. You know, as Heather touched on, most retailers have stocked their shelves or stocked their warehouses by now. A lot of people pre bought and panic bought while the tariffs were, you know, going around and around around on a daily basis. And so I don't see us seeing a big uptake in Q4 in any freight. And I think it's going to continue to soften and I think into Q1 it's going to continue to soften.
- [37:04]
B
Kim, I tend to agree with you and Heather, if I can put you on the spot when you think of that prognostication and if you'd rather not, that's perfectly fine. Would you tend to agree with what Kim is seeing in, in the months ahead?
- [37:16]
A
Yes, I agree. I think she summed it up.
- [37:19]
B
Yeah.
- [37:20]
A
Very well.
- [37:21]
B
You know, in big news, it wasn't true.
- [37:24]
D
Like I'm not, I'm not excited about that. Yeah, I, I wish this was not the case.
- [37:28]
A
But.
- [37:32]
B
As my dear friend Corinne Bursa who's joined us last time, Bobby, if you remember Corinne Bursa, I love her saying facts not feelings and can it, Kim goes to exactly what you're talking about we've got the deal in facts as in supply chain. That's how stuff gets done. None of us like some of those facts from time to time, but it's where we are, right? We gotta, we gotta be brokers of reality. Okay, so Bobby, I want to make sure folks know how to find the freight, the U.S. bank freight payment Index, how to subscribe to it, you name it. Bobby, what would be your advice there again?
- [38:10]
C
Freight.usbank.com and fill in a little bit of information, tells us who you are and it'll be delivered to your inbox, your email inbox every quarter.
- [38:21]
B
And it is just that easy. And again, you know, Kim, I want to ask you something really quick, actually you and Heather, really quick. When we go back to some of these central visuals, I've got the addition. Here's the region by the high level, region by region. You'll see a full breakdown of each region in analysis in the freight PIM index. But this is a new edition of Freight Rate Insights from the team at dat. Kim, I think this is, this is like golden. I mean it makes so much sense to bake this into the quarterly report, huh?
- [38:54]
D
I love this that you guys include this. Every single trucker out there is upset about this because it's the age old question, like how much should I be paying? Because you don't know unless, unless you have the, unless you're using one of the many amazing apps and software out there who collect freight rates. Other than that you're just making dozens of phone calls and, and you don't know like is it right, is it wrong? I have no idea. So this is great that we're giving a, a snapshot. I do find it interesting that it's fairly stable.
- [39:24]
B
Oh, interesting, interesting. And Heather, not to put you on the spot, but there's a lot of value in that new legal, new addition to the freight payment.
- [39:36]
A
Yeah, I would say as a shipper, we at fortive, for example, always challenge ourselves to say are we buying best? Right. Are we getting the best service, the best cost? And so something like that gives us at least a little visibility into the market to compare our rates, how we're paying versus what the market, I think, you know, seeing it then taking another level down regionally, you know, to give you those, those dynamics because we know that there's capacity and all kind of changes when you start looking at it regionally. But agree, super helpful.
- [40:15]
B
Yeah, no doubt. So Bobby, we'll see what you got up your sleeve with the next Freight Payment Index. But kudos to you and the team for the great work you do and the, and the conversations that you help to create. Right. All right, so, Heather, let's do this. I want to circle back to the great work that you and the fortive team are doing. I really admire your mission and I admire your approach here today as well as I got to find out about those logistics workshops that you were putting on around the globe. But how can our audience connect with you in the fortive team?
- [40:44]
A
Yep. So I'm pretty active on LinkedIn. I kind of, like, realized a couple years ago, like, I have a pretty really cool job and I get to do, I get to travel, I get to meet with our stakeholders. And so you'll see me posting on LinkedIn about the great work that we're doing. And I was just, again, try to like, tie it back to the value that we're. We're getting by being together and a lot of the projects that we're working on. So, yeah, LinkedIn's probably the best, the best way to, to get me and then we can go from there.
- [41:18]
B
Outstanding. Well, thanks again for Carbon Timeout to be here with us and appreciate what you do. Folks, go find and follow or connect with Heather Schilt with Ford of especially on LinkedIn. All right, Kim. Talking about folks that are dropping outstanding perspective and, and challenging leadership on LinkedIn. Y' all gotta follow and connect with Kim Reuter, too. But the patented key takeaway, Kim, that's a tough question. What's one thing that folks gotta take from today's conversation?
- [41:49]
D
So this is a hard one. Normally it's really easy because we're not focused on all of this data and it's easier for me to come up with something. But I think the thing that really struck out for me today and going through the report and digesting all that information is that is how much housing starts is really playing a part of this impact. I don't know when the last time we saw housing having such an impact on manufacturing of freight. And I know that it does, but I'm just saying the percentage and the heft of that impact seems to me to start to really outweigh some of the other things that are going on.
- [42:26]
B
Well said. And Kim, I'll throw this charter back up there. I'm not, I'm not confused by, to be a mathematician, but if I had to put a trend line on, say from 2021, you know, it kind of illustrates a point you're making. Right. And this is just starts we talked, touched on the lowering data in terms of the new permits or something. Folks, we got to keep on our radar. And as Heather mentioned, the watch list, I think the watch out list maybe is what Heather mentioned. We're gonna have to have a big watch out list. We make global supply chain happen. Okay. Bobby Holland, Director Freight business analytics at U.S. bank. Bobby, you hit another home run. You and the team, thank you so much for being here and sharing your non key takeaways from the Q3 Freight Payment Index.
- [43:15]
C
Thank you. Glad to be here. Thank you for your your help.
- [43:19]
B
Well, I look forward to hearing more about your global travels next quarter. Making me jealous. All right, so Heather Schilt speaking of global travels, man, what a great year. Heather Shield Director, Global Logistics with fortive leading an incredible mission there. Heather, thanks so much for being here and hope you have a great time at your collegiate reunion this weekend.
- [43:41]
A
Thank you. Yeah, and thank you for having me. And also thank you for US bank for putting out this content for carrier shippers and the likes to get a good indication on what's taking place in the market.
- [43:54]
B
That is right. We, we gotta have more resources. Again, facts not feelings. Tip of that to Corinne and Kim Reuter. Always a pleasure. You bring it like few do, always keeping it real. And thanks so much for spending some time with us here today.
- [44:09]
D
Thank you. Love being here.
- [44:11]
B
I do too. And we had some good stuff from Bobby and Heather and Kim. You may agree with them, you may disagree with them, you may agree with me, you may disagree with me. We'd love to hear from you. Give us your observations. What do you see now in the market? We would welcome that and we'll try to roll up some of those findings and drop them in the next newsletter. But for now, you know the challenge that we like to wrap our shows with. Tell you Bobby and Heather and Kim brought it. There's so much actionable perspective here. Take one thing, just one thing you heard here from Heather, Bobby and Kim here today. Share it with the team. Let's turn these opportunities into and insights into actions right and better outcomes. And you know we do that via deeds not words. That's how it all works. So with all that said, Scott here challenging you on behalf the whole supply chain out team. Do good, get forward, be the change that's needed and we'll see you next time right back here on supply chain now. Thanks for watching. Join the supply Chain now community. For more supply chain perspectives, news and innovation, check out supply chain now.com subscribe to Supply Chain now on YouTube and follow and listen to Supply Chain now, wherever you get your podcasts.