Supply Chain Now: Breaking News Now – Scott Luton Chats with Max Garland

Episode Date: October 27, 2025
Host: Scott Luton
Guest: Max Garland (Senior Reporter, Supply Chain Dive)

Episode Overview

In this episode of Supply Chain Now’s “Breaking News Now,” host Scott Luton welcomes back Max Garland for a deep dive into current events and major shifts in global delivery, logistics, and supply chain management as Q4 and the critical holiday season approach. The discussion covers 2025 peak season surcharges, Amazon Shipping’s aggressive market moves, updates on UPS buyouts, the fallout following the end of “de minimis,” and breaking developments on the Canada Post strike.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2025 Peak Season Surcharges: A Mixed Bag

• Annual Increase Trend: Each year, major carriers like FedEx, UPS, and USPS raise surcharges for the peak holiday shipping season. For 2025, the trend continues—with some notable twists.
• Cost Impact: Retailers shipping large volumes face significant added expenses (e.g., up to $3.55 per package for FedEx’s ground economy).
• Amazon Shipping’s Move: Amazon mimics these surcharges, placing itself even more squarely in competition with legacy carriers.
• Shipper Strategies:
  • Negotiating with carriers
  • Encouraging early holiday shopping
  • Exploring alternative, fee-free providers

Quote:

“Holiday surcharges are an annual tradition...and for FedEx and UPS, their fees have increased from 2024. For shippers, you have to be proactive...don’t wait.”
— Max Garland [03:11]

Quote:

“Consumers ain’t looking to write a bigger check anytime soon.”
— Scott Luton [04:33]

2. Amazon Shipping’s Rapid Ascent

• Market Disruption: Amazon continues to attract retailers through faster, cheaper options—recently winning Bark (Barkbox) and KiwiCo as clients.
• Cross-platform Delivery: Amazon Shipping now delivers for businesses beyond Amazon.com.
• Benefit for Shippers: Improved transit times, lower costs driving migration from traditional carriers.

Quote:

“Shippers have a lot of options for delivery nowadays, and if they don’t like the service or price point of their current carrier, they can switch.”
— Max Garland [07:04]

3. UPS Buyouts: Navigating Workforce Change

• Historic Move: UPS, for the first time, offers buyouts to drivers (especially senior/high-salary employees) and operations managers.
• Motivation: Reduce labor costs, bring in younger/cheaper talent.
• Risks: Service quality could suffer due to the loss of experienced, “tribal knowledge” staff.
• Teamsters’ Concerns: Overtime issues already straining the workforce; further shrinkage raises questions about service levels during peak season.

Quote:

“UPS is offering buyouts for drivers for the first time in its very long history...but what we’ll all be watching is how this impacts service without some of that tribal knowledge.”
— Max Garland [08:50]

4. End of “De Minimis” and Its Ripple Effect

• Policy Change: The US ended the duty-free import threshold ($800 per shipment) as of August 29th.
• Immediate Fallout: Companies like Lululemon, which previously fulfilled two-thirds of US orders from Canada, now face an expected $240M hit (from new tariffs).
• Industry Response: Businesses are scrambling to redesign distribution centers and inventory practices.

Quote:

“The end of de minimis...is forcing a lot of companies to drastically rethink how their supply chain should operate. Those are hard but necessary changes.”
— Max Garland [10:32]

• Will “De Minimis” Return?
  • Possible, but unlikely without broad business and consumer demand for its reinstatement.
  • Policymaker and industry consensus would be necessary.

5. Canada Post Strike: Rotation vs. Resolution

• Developments: A two-week nationwide Canada Post strike has shifted to rotating strikes, lessening (but not eliminating) disruptions.
• Business Impact: Especially affecting small businesses, rural deliveries, and e-commerce reliant on Canada Post’s low rates and vast reach.
• Underlying Tension: Government reforms aimed at financial losses; the union opposes changes that would reduce employee perks and potentially damage the postal brand.
• Broader Relevance: Even if listeners aren’t shipping via Canada Post, the situation foreshadows potential future labor disruptions in other regions.

Quote:

“This is all still a big concern...especially for smaller businesses, online sellers, those shipping more rural areas...these sorts of labor disruptions could go on for quite a long time.”
— Max Garland [13:40]

6. The Future of Postal Services: Universal Service vs. Profit

• Crossroads: Both USPS and Canada Post face financial strain and questions on their fundamental purpose—universal service at all costs, or a transition toward private-sector profit models?
• Bulk Mailing Loopholes: Ongoing exploitation of commercial rates by mass marketers; both agencies need substantial reform.

Quote:

“Is it focused on service at all costs, universal service, or is it moving to that sort of more profitable model?...We’re gonna probably see big changes in the coming years.”
— Max Garland [15:36]

7. Looking Ahead: Trends to Watch

• Q4 Strikes & Contingency Planning: Ongoing Canada Post labor unrest as the holiday season approaches sets a precedent for shippers everywhere to prepare for disruptive events.
• Adapting Now for the Future: Brands are already moving volume away from risk-prone carriers. Observing these moves helps everyone plan for supply chain resilience.

Quote:

“Even if you aren’t a Canada Post shipper, it’s good to keep track of this...because who knows, whenever a strike happens...it’s good to be prepared for these situations and have contingency plans in place.”
— Max Garland [16:39]

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On negotiation and options:
  “Negotiate with your carrier...use alternative delivery providers...but you have to be proactive with it, right? Don’t wait, don’t wait.”
  — Max Garland [03:42]

• On service crossovers:
  “Amazon’s beginning to look a lot like FedEx and UPS in other ways.”
  — Max Garland [05:44]

• On bulk mail at USPS:
  “95% of my mail is paid promotional stuff...is that a big part of the responsibility of the USPS these days?”
  — Scott Luton [15:00]

• On the changing landscape:
  “Options are a good thing, right? And there’s more options today than arguably, maybe ever before.”
  — Scott Luton [07:18]

• On keeping informed:
  “The pace of global business...it’s only getting faster and faster. You’ve got to stay informed by turning to trusted sources of sound information and analysis.”
  — Scott Luton [20:22]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 2025 Peak Fees Discussion: [03:11 – 04:42]
• Amazon Shipping Wins Barkbox & Market Implications: [05:10 – 07:18]
• UPS Buyouts and Workforce Shifts: [08:50 – 10:08]
• End of De Minimis; Lululemon Example: [10:32 – 12:52]
• Canada Post Strike Update: [13:28 – 14:47]
• Future of National Postal Carriers: [15:36 – 16:05]
• Trends to Watch into Q4: [16:39 – 17:44]
• How to Follow Max Garland & Further Resources: [18:40 – 19:20]

How to Stay Connected

• Follow Max Garland:

  • LinkedIn – Max Garland
  • Subscribe to the Supply Chain Dive Newsletter for industry updates

• Check out Supply Chain Now:

  • supplychainnow.com
  • Listen on all major podcast platforms

Tone & Key Takeaway

The conversation blends hard data, industry insights, and light banter, reflecting both the urgency and humanity of modern supply chain management. It underscores the importance of adaptability and monitoring, especially in rapidly shifting environments—from union activity to international shipping regulations.

Final Word:

“You have to stay informed by turning to trusted sources...Max Garland is one of the best in the biz.”
— Scott Luton [20:22]