SUPPLY CHAIN NOW PODCAST SUMMARY
Episode: "Building Agility in 2026 As Uncertainty Becomes the New Certainty"
Date: November 26, 2025
Host: Scott Luton
Guest: Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence

Episode Overview

This episode features a deep-dive conversation between host Scott Luton and renowned supply chain researcher Chris Rogers. The focus is on the evolving nature of uncertainty in global supply chains, the technological and strategic responses shaping the industry, and priorities for building agility as organizations prepare for 2026 and beyond. This episode unpacks the lessons of 2025, emerging trade policy shifts, the impact of technological innovation, and the persistent need for adaptive, resilient supply networks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Importance of Agility Amid Constant Uncertainty

• Theme: The unpredictability of global supply chains is no longer a bug—it's the defining feature.
  • Quote: “We called our most recent outlook the only certainty is uncertainty. That’s kind of where we are now.” — Chris Rogers (16:31)
• Both host and guest highlight the industry’s move from seeking stability to building agility as a central competence.
• The ongoing need to review toolkits, separate signal from noise, and stay forward-looking in research and decision-making.

2. Chris Rogers’ Professional Journey & Research Insights

• Background: Over 25 years’ research experience across supply chain, energy, and finance.
  • Lateral move from energy and investment banking into supply chain through roles at Panjiva and organizations like Bloomberg and JP Morgan.
  • Quote: “I was fortunate…to start looking at all of the data assets they had. And that led me to speak to the folks at Panjiva, and that’s really where I got heavily into supply chain.” — Chris Rogers (06:42)
• Notable Perspective: The term “supply chain” is in reality a “supply network” or “ecosystem;” linear models no longer suffice.
  • Quote: “We all use the word supply chain and we should really say supply network…this is a multidimensional model.” — Chris Rogers (12:35)

3. Pandemic Lessons & Shifts in the Profession

• The pandemic propelled supply chain into public consciousness.
• Increasing diversity in professional backgrounds: data analysts, technologists, creative thinkers are joining what was once a procurement-heavy field.
  • Quote: “That emergence of supply chain from the back room to being at the forefront has been really important.” — Chris Rogers (08:09)
• Disappointment: Environmental and sustainability concerns have taken a back seat in the new focus, and a call for renewed attention.
  • Quote: “One of the things I’ve been disappointed about…is that the environmental aspects aren’t getting the focus that they should.” — Chris Rogers (09:13)

4. Tools, Strategies, & Organizational Success in Volatile Times

• Success in uncertainty comes from:
  • Investing in visibility across the supply network.
  • Cohesive, data-driven decision-making—“control tower” or “golden source of truth” platforms.
  • Tactical levers: early shipping, inventory management, direct import, and pricing tactics.
  • Visibility enables rapid, coordinated actions.
  • Quote: “A lot of the companies that have been successful are ones who’ve had great visibility over their supply network.” — Chris Rogers (19:02)
  • Strategies only succeed if visibility and foundational platforms are already in place.

Notable Segment

• Prediction Failure & Humility
  • Even expert forecasts regarding 2025 tariff escalation (e.g., Trump Tariffs 2.0) underestimated real-world magnitude and market response.
  • Quote: “Of course, we have 100% perfect vision into the future. No, of course not.” — Chris Rogers (15:05)
  • Importance of scenario thinking, contingency planning, and recognizing base/worst-case skewing in real-time.

5. Trade Policy & US-China Developments (22:32)

• Shift in nature of agreements: Modern trade deals are often handshake agreements, not detailed legal documents—leading to ambiguity and risk.
  • Quote: “These are deals brought together…very short form in nature, as a consequence of which you are always going to end up with these risks where what people thought they agreed, they maybe haven’t agreed.” — Chris Rogers (22:35)
• Critical need to monitor rare earths, US agriculture (e.g., soybeans), and shipbuilding trends as supply chain “choke points.”

6. Major Trends in Shipping and Logistics Operations (25:37)

• Capacity Surge: The global container fleet is projected to increase by 30% over four years, while demand is only growing incrementally.
  • Quote: “It’s important to note that over the next four years there’s going to be an additional 30% added to the global container fleet…It’s really going to be a challenge…to maintain the discipline.” — Chris Rogers (26:23)
• Network Redesign: Emerging “hub and spoke” strategies (e.g., Maersk and Hapag Lloyd’s Gemini partnership) may reshape port and shipping operations for decades.
• Implication: Decisions made now reverberate for years due to the massive capital and time investments in physical infrastructure.

7. The Persistent Nature of Uncertainty (28:53)

• Every year presents new uncertainties—tariffs, strikes, canal issues, pandemics, economic crises.
• Memorable Moment: Chris’s quip—“It might be historical, but we don’t need to be hysterical.” — Chris Rogers (29:20)
• Recommendation: Don’t expect uncertainty to disappear; focus on building agility and scenario planning.

8. 2026 Outlook & Strategic Recommendations (31:39)

• Three major buckets:
  1. Trade Liberalization: Expect more deals (EU-India, EU-Mercosur, CPTPP expansion) as a counterweight to US protectionism.
  2. Muted Trade Volumes: Global shipping volumes will be steady-to-slow, in finely balanced capacity/rate environment.
  3. Shift from Tactics to Strategy: Expect a pivot to long-term strategic investments (e.g., reshoring manufacturing, supply network redesign).
  • Quote: “The move to being more strategic in decision making…those are the big buckets of what we’re looking for next year.” — Chris Rogers (33:24)

9. Technology’s Transformative Impact (36:52)

• AI: “Agentic AI” will revolutionize workflow-based processes (especially procurement), allow leapfrogging for those not deeply data-literate, and facilitate automated, scenario-driven decisions.
  • Advice: Document your decision processes and identify repetitive tasks for targeted automation.
  • Quote: “Agentic AI will allow folks…to kind of jump to the next generation with what they know, which is effectively treating these systems as being a smart counterparty that knows your data, knows external data.” — Chris Rogers (37:00)
• Beyond AI: High-dexterity robotics will drive a manufacturing revolution—enabling production closer to demand and less reliant on lowest-cost labor.
  • Quote: “The non-AI development I’m most interested to watch…is high dexterity robotics…that’s going to lead to a step change in how manufacturing works.” — Chris Rogers (39:49)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Evolving Roles in Supply Chain:
  “Historically, it’s been very procurement focused. Now it’s a lot more people coming in who are data savvy, who are tech savvy. And that just raises the quality of decision making.” (08:18)

• On Dealing With Data Overload:
  “Just the fire hose information…I guess, is the key thing…facing a lot of information coming at them within their own organization. So it’s really incumbent on us as researchers to make all of that digestible.” (10:30)

• On the Reinvention of Trade Agreements:
  “These are not your grandmother’s trade deals…what people thought they agreed, they maybe haven’t agreed.” (22:37)

• On the Importance of Agility:
  “Building up agility allows you to deal with these kind of historic levels of uncertainty.” (29:09)

• On the Future of Robotics and Human Work:
  “Once that kind of fine dexterity is sorted out…that’s going to lead to, I think a step change in how manufacturing works.” (39:49)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Chris’s Background & Entry Into Supply Chain: 05:57–08:37
• Shift from “Supply Chain” to “Supply Network” Thinking: 12:32–13:47
• Lessons of Pandemic and Diversity in Supply Chain Talent: 08:07–09:52
• Challenges of Research and Data Overload: 10:27–11:37
• Forecast Failures & Tariff Volatility: 15:05–16:52
• Actionable Tools & Organizational Strategies: 18:53–20:24
• US–China Trade Deal Commentary: 22:32–24:21
• Shipping & Logistics Trends for the Next Decade: 25:37–27:48
• Historic Uncertainty and Advice for the Future: 28:53–30:42
• 2026 Outlook: Trade Policy & Strategy Shift: 31:39–34:01
• Technology Impact: AI & Robotics: 36:52–40:42

How to Connect and Resources

• Full Reports & Analysis:
  • “S&P Global Supply Chain Outlook 2026” — Search via browser/AI tool or at spglobal.com
  • “The Age of Agility” — Annual report from S&P Global.
• Connect with Chris Rogers:
  • LinkedIn: Chris G H Rogers
  • Event: TPM 26 (Journal of Commerce/S&P Global), March 1–4, 2026, Long Beach, California

Final Takeaways

• Agility and strategic visibility are now the critical success factors for supply chains amidst permanent volatility.
• Embrace technological advances, but ground them in clarity about your processes and data.
• Shift from tactical firefighting to longer-term, strategic thinking as the industry adapts to a world where uncertainty is a constant, not an outlier.

Action for Listeners:
Reflect on one insight from this conversation and share it with a colleague or team—progress is made through putting knowledge into action (42:41).

For deeper context and the latest reports, visit spglobal.com.