
The data doesn't lie, and in Q1 2026, it's telling a story the freight industry hasn't seen in years. In this special episode of Supply Chain Now, Scott W. Luton and Karin Bursa welcome Bobby Holland, Director of Freight Business Analytics at U.S. Bank, and Bob Costello, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President at the American Trucking Associations, for a deep dive into the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for Q1 2026. The episode unpacks seven critical takeaways from the quarter, including a historic 12.9% spike in freight spending, a rare supply-side recovery driven by tightening capacity and surging fuel costs, and regional breakdowns across the West, Southwest, Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast, with stops on tariff impacts, cross-border trade with Canada and Mexico, and what a $7.22-per-gallon diesel price in California means for the broader economy. Together, they explore why this recovery is unlike anything we've seen since the pandemic boom, what the Goldman Sachs...
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It screams to me that we are in the midst of a recovery in the industry. But here's the interesting thing. It is a supply side recovery. They're very rare. They don't happen very often. There wasn't a lot of growth in demand right in terms of shipments, but that spend index surged during the quarter.
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Welcome to Supply Chain now the number one voice of supply Chain. Join us as we share critical news, key insights and real supply chain leadership from from across the globe, one conversation at a time.
C
Hey, good afternoon, good evening, good morning, Good May, good 2026. Scott Luton and Corinne Bursa here with you live on Supply Chain. Now, welcome to today's show. Hey, Corinne Bursa, how you doing today?
D
I'm doing great, Scott. I'd like to offer my warm welcome to all the supply chain movers and shakers who are joining us today as
C
well as a great time to be in global supply chain. Am I right, Corinne?
D
It is a great time to be in Supply chain. I agree.
C
Folks, we're continuing a long running terrific series here today. We're going to be sharing key insights from the latest quarterly edition of one of the leading transportation industry resources, the US Bank Freight Payment Index for Q1 2026. We always get a lot of feedback from this practical, actionable series. Not only are going to be diving into what the data is telling us, which is always important, but as always we're going to be marrying that data driven perspective up with boots on ground in market, executive practitioner perspective. We're going to get a good sense of what transpired in the first quarter of 2026 from a freight market, really from an economic freight market, supply chain business perspective here in the US and beyond. We're also going to share a few nuggets that will help prep you for where we're headed. It's going to be in a great conversation here. You know, we, we get all kinds of feedback from supply chain teams who lean on a variety of resources like the Freight Payment Index to identify trends, plan and project, create productive conversations with suppliers, customers, you name it. It's news you can use, huh?
D
It is news you can use. You know, I'm a big proponent of facts, not feelings. And this U.S. bank freight payment Index is built on a very solid foundation of real verified data. And I know it's, it's billions of dollars in actual freight movement. So it's a really good indicator of what just happened. And I think between Bobby Holland and Bob Costello, they give us a good view of what might be coming as well. So this is one of my favorite shows. That supply chain now does every quarter same.
C
It's bedrock. You can build your house on it. What we talk about here today is bedrock in terms of foundational strength as Kareem was talking about. One really important element to the Freight Payment Index is all the treasure troves of data processed through U.S. bank. In fact, did you know U.S. bank processed $46 billion worth of transactions in 2025 alone? All those data driven insights and great commentary from one of our guests here today. Well, all that makes for one of the biggest reasons why U.S. bank is a terrific resource for this information that as we mentioned, many business leaders leverage out in the market. So Corinne, are you ready to welcome in our guests here today?
D
I am. I'm ready to get started.
C
Let's dive in. I want to welcome in once again the dynamic duo, Bobby Holland, director Freight business analytics at U.S. bank and backed by Popular Demand, Bob Costello, chief economist and senior Vice President of International Trade and Security policy for the American Trucking Associations.
A
Hey.
C
Hey, Bobby. Welcome back. How you doing?
E
Doing well.
C
Great to see you, my friend. And Bob Costello, Gosh, to have you twice in one year or twice in about a six month stretch, we must be living right. Bob, welcome in.
A
Great to be here.
C
So let's do this. We got a lot to get into, but really quick start a little fun warm up. Question. We were talking about this pre show. There are some common themes here. Bob, you just got back from one of your favorite places in the whole world, Rome, Italy, and you're watching the Italian Open, is that right?
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I know most people go to the Eternal City for all the sites which are amazing, but my family and I went and did like three days of tennis over there. It was a short trip, but it was a lot of fun. Saw some fantastic tennis. This is the buildup to the French Open, so this is the last one and we're big tennis fans, so yeah, it was great.
C
That is outstanding. Outstanding. And folks, if y' all want the full rundown on everything Bob did, you have to reach out to him on LinkedIn. He might share who knows Bobby Holland. Now you have ventured around the world, all kinds of travel and you've made a few stops in Italy, including Rome. What was one of your highlights when you ventured over to Rome?
E
It's going to be the pasta. Definitely had to try the four that they're famous for. And the other sideline highlight was the Starbucks that was about half a block from our Airbnb. Had a bar.
C
Okay.
E
All my friends Here were having their coffee break at noon over there I was having espresso martini because it was aperitivo time. So compared pictures and my stuff looked a lot better than their lattes.
D
So I can imagine.
C
Yeah, love that Bobby. All right. So Corinne, between what Bob and Bobby did and enjoyed in room, have you been to Italy yet?
D
I have not. I have fear of missing out. So I've got FOMO today. My son and his wife, my daughter in law just got back a couple of weeks ago, had a fabulous time in Italy. My niece is going in a month and my second cousin just got back as well. So obviously Italy is the place to be be right now.
C
It is the place to be. So folks, if you all need guidance, reach out. We're going to offer that and supply chain and freight market guidance all here today. And it's great to have Bob and Bobby and of course Corinne. Let's do this. We got to get to work. We got a lot to get to here today. Bobby, we have got a truckload, I mean it's maybe a container load of insights and takeaways to share in today's show. I think seven key takeaways from the the domestic freight market. But if you had to put all of this, our entire conversation into a one sentence theme, Bobby Holland, what would that be?
E
Basically that capacity tightened sharply in Q1, driving up shipment costs even as freight volumes remain largely unchanged. It's a great credibility reset if you want not as opposed to any other impacts.
C
Okay. And folks, that's just a tip of the iceberg. We got a lot more to dive in here today. So in seven critical takeaways we're going to cover in just a second. But before we get there, let's share some context on the front end. It's level set a bit so you can appreciate folks where these perspectives are coming from. And Bob Costello, I want to start with you again. You joined us about 2/4 ago and I'll tell you we got rave reviews. So thank you Bob for our new audience members share a little bit about yourself and the American Trucking associations.
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I'm embarrassed to say how long I've been at ATA. It's been a long time, getting close to 30 years, which is crazy. I'm sitting here in Washington D.C. working at the American Trucking Association. So I've got Capitol Hill right over here, Dot right over here. And so we advocate for the industry but part of my role in all that is figuring out where we are in terms of freight and capacity and so forth. So I'm looking forward to the discussion.
C
Outstanding. Hey, we appreciate what you and your organization do for our industry. So vital, really, across different sectors and roles. And great to have you here. Now, Corinne, you are certainly not new to these conversations about the Freight Payment Index. I really enjoyed co hosting this show with you going back for years. So if you would, based on the feedback we get and based on all of your years of experience, we're not breaking a 20 year rule of being a leader and a practitioner out there. How do industry leaders like yourself utilize resources like the US Bank Freight Payment Index?
D
Yeah, I really think that this freight movement is really a leading indicator of economic movement. What's happening today and the fact that US bank publishes this with just a very small lag time, it's a really good indicator of what's happening in the market now. So whether we're talking about raw materials that are headed into factories or finished goods that are moving to distribution centers or retail shelves, what we know is that when freight moves, the economy is in motion. And that's a good thing. That's a good thing for all of our businesses and all of our bank accounts. So I always look forward to this discussion and the insights that Bobby shares with us and when Bob's with us that he can bring to the table as well.
C
I'm with you. Well said as always. And then Bobby, let's make sure, especially for folks that may be new to the US Bank Freight Payment Index, how does it work? What does it analyze? Give us the good stuff.
E
Okay. Well, as you mentioned earlier, we processed over $46 billion in freight payments. Based on all that data, that big data perspective, we created a quarterly chain based index. It's a same store sales comparison between quarters. Basically it shows the quarterly deltas in shipments and spend across the nation. And we break it down regionally as well.
C
I love it. And we're going to go through at a national level. We're also going to go through region by region, which is really my favorite. All right, so let's do this. As I mentioned, we got seven key takeaways from the Q1 2026 Freight Payment Index. I want to start at the national level, Bobby. We got to start at a national level, you know, high level, macro, regional, whatever you want to call it. Give us a couple of key takeaways for starters.
E
Well, at the national level, we saw that spending jumped 12.9% over Q4, 2025, and it was also up 21.8% from the same quarter last year. And we're seeing this as the strongest growth since the pandemic boom. In addition, from a regional shipment spending perspective, this is the first time since the second quarter of 2022 that all five regions posted double digit year over year increases in their spend ranging from 16.7 to 26.7%.
C
Okay, all right, so we're off to the races now. So Bob, when you hear that and when you see what else is transpiring on your radar economically, supply chain, domestic freight, speaking your thoughts.
A
So it screams to me that we are in the midst of of a recovery in the industry. But here's the interesting thing. It is a supply side recovery. They're very rare, they don't happen very often. As you and Bobby said and Krin said earlier, there wasn't a lot of growth in demand, right. In terms of shipments. But that spend index surged during the quarter and that really came from two sources. The biggest part of that, the largest part of that was going to be that capacity tight. And this has been a source of from a couple places over the last few years. Right. We've got a whittling away of capacity as we endured a three plus year freight recession and it was just slowly coming down. But then the US government, DOT Transportation did some changes around driver qualifications recently and those have then also been sort of adding on to that and that's really tightened capacity. That's the major reason why spending went up. But the other one that went on is late in the quarter we know what happened in Iran and we started bombing Iran and what did that do to fuel prices? Oil prices went up, fuel prices went up. And so the fuel surcharges also went up to what shippers are paying. So the combination of those two things is what has led to all that spending. So it's really a unique situation that we're in right now in terms of this supply side recovery.
C
Bob, excellent observations there. All right, Corinne, your thoughts. What we heard there from Bobby. Bob, and what did you see?
D
It's a bit of a double whammy to see double digit costs increases like this and that it's coming from really two angles as Bob explained. It means that it's not isolated, it's systemic in nature. And supply chain executives have really spent this last couple of years very focused on logistics, cost reduction. Now the conversation might start shifting more towards securing reliable capacity or protecting service levels and doing that at an elevated cost basis. I mean double digit. We all feel double digit.
C
We all feel double digit. That's right. Okay, so we are going to Go region by region and we're going to start with the west region as we typically do. We used to save the west for last, Bobby, but we did, we flipped it on its head last couple shows. Love to get your key takeaways for the west region.
E
Bobby Holland well, the rest region saw shipments at their highest level since 2023 and this was supported by steadier manufacturing and port activity and the result was a fifth consecutive quarter with yearly gains.
C
Okay. All right. So Bob, when you see what's going on out west, especially for that Q1 2026, which what this report covers, your thoughts?
A
Bob yeah, a couple things come to mind. First of all, remember a couple things happened around tariffs in the first quarter and the biggest of that was going to be that the administration lost their battle with the IPA tariffs. The Supreme Court overruled it and I do think while it was sort of it was in February in criminals as well. But it's to get certainly on the ships to get a lot of stuff in overnight. But I think there was more air freight coming in. There was definitely a pickup in activity as importers were trying to to beat maybe the 122 tariffs, although that just had a bit of a lost in court as well last week. So I, I think there was that, I think that there was, you know, manufacturing activity is okay. There are pockets of some real strength, but one of them is around aerospace stuff. Well, we know that's big in California and in up in Washington state. So that was certainly a help there. Even though overall it isn't too great. You know, consumers are a little mixed. The high end consumers are doing well, the lower end consumers are struggling a little bit. So I think it's sort of a mixed bag. So you add it all up and it was a decent quarter certainly in terms of volumes for the west. It was one of the highlights in volumes.
C
Yep, good stuff there, Bob. I appreciate that. Corrine, your thoughts from out West.
D
Bob's comment on the impact of tariffs or the uncertainty of tariffs, you know, you have to remember that that caused a lot of forward buying right where we were trying to bring in goods or raw materials ahead of the implementation of tariffs. And then the uncertainty on if the tariffs would hold or be revoked came into play as well. So some of these challenges are all man made in nature just from economic policy and investment. But I do think it's good news coming in from the West. I think the west also had some additional pricing pressure as you guys had both mentioned before, based on fuel cost as well, so that comes into play. The west tends to be higher than other areas that we look at.
C
That's right. Well, I want to call one thing out in particular, and this isn't just to do with the west, although it exacerbated in California for sure. But check this out. This is from our friends at Market Watch and Gas Buddy. As it says in the Freight payment index, diesel fuel prices In California alone hit 722 per gallon on March 30th. Right. At the time that was an all time high and they've stayed elevated. Right. So check out this chart from Gas Buddy that illustrates some of that pain that Corinne that you were talking about earlier. Right. And as I was talking pre show with Bob, he pointed out that the U.S. energy Information Administration, the EIA, well they report today that the national average for U.S. own highway, important distinction on highway diesel fuel prices that average nationwide is $5.60, almost 64 cents per gallon. And while we all focus a lot on gasoline prices as consumers, because that's important too. But still, Patrick DeHaan, I hope I said that right with GasBuddy makes a great point saying, quote, diesel is the fuel that powers the U.S. economy from tractors to trucks to trains and more. So we're going to see some related economic metrics maybe later in today's show. All right, so let's do this. We just covered the west along with some national observations there. I want to shift down to the Southwest. Bobby, what do we see in the Southwest?
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The Southwest had its 10th consecutive quarter of double digit declines in annual shipments. However, the upside was that it was a slower rate of contraction compared to the previous four quarters.
C
All right. So Bob, when you think of the Southwest and gosh, Texas, Oklahoma and my geography is not good for a couple of states that make up the Southwest. Your thoughts, your observations? What'd you say, Bob?
A
Yeah, so you know, this has been a region that's been in, at least in terms of volumes, have been in a bit of a decline as Bobby said, for a while. You know, I think some of that is simply during the pandemic we saw all these people sort of move down that way and that has sort of ended. Not that they're necessarily moving out, but it created such a boom in freight for a while even above and beyond other regions that I think part of that is just simply resetting in that region and that's been part of it. So consumers and like a lot of places, consumers are sort of tamping the brakes a little bit. And so that is also It. Now, one thing that I'll tell you what is not going on is a boom in oil production. I mean, we're the largest oil producer in the world. A lot of that, as we know, comes from down in that region. But you know, a lot of times people are saying to me, why aren't they just producing even more oil to help with these higher prices? The problem is the current price is really high for oil, but if you look at future prices, it's coming down. So as a business person, you're never going to say, let's produce. Let me make all this investment for the future when the future price is saying it's lower. So I think that is, that is also one of, one of the issues in that region.
C
Yes, Bob, a lot of good stuff there. And, and by the way, Corinne, I don't want to alienate any parts of our SCN Global fam. That's New Mexico and Arizona were the other two states I was, I was looking to place in the Southwest. Beautiful states.
E
All right.
C
So Corinne, when you think of the Southwest and what you're seeing there and what you heard from Bobby and Bob, what comes to mind?
D
Yeah, as I looked at the report, I kind of had the same feeling. I know Bobby made the comment that it's contracting slower, but I looked at it more as maybe kind of stabilizing to a new range, if you will, for some of the factors that Bobby mentioned as people migrated maybe to the, to the Southwest. I think, though, that we are still going to see this region as critically important because as companies continue near shoring activities, manufacturing diversification in the Southwest is a critical contact point for those goods coming in as well. So I think that, that we will see maybe this stabilization happen and then see some of that activity continue to kind of pick up just as companies diversify their networks.
C
Well said, Corinne. I agree with you. All right, so one other quick point I want to add about the Southwest because we know Texas makes up a big chunk of the Southwest region. I want to share a couple of data points here. The Federal Reserve bank of Dallas is always a great source for many, for lots of data, but especially manufacturing data. Right. What the Texas industry, what we're seeing there, we all know that's a critical input to the freight market and many, many other things. From their latest data for that was released showing April 2026, which is just again outside of the first quarter, 2026. But nevertheless, I think it's really an interesting look at the Texas manufacturing market. Number one is kind of a Mixed bag. Good news. The production index shown here jumped 12 points which suggests an above average pace of output expansion. But the not so good news, which is to be expected based on some of these other things we're talking about after a slight decline in raw materials and inputs pricing, that key metric, well, it's begun to creep back up. And my hunch, we'll see if Bob and Bobby and Corinne agree with me. My hunch is we can expect that probably to continue throughout second quarter rather probably third and fourth too. We'll see. So it's always interesting. I love the manufacturing market. It creates so much for countries and for industries and we're going to keep our finger on the pulse there. All right, so folks, we are now going to the Midwest region, the great Midwest, the great American Midwest. And Bobby, tell us key takeaways here.
E
The Midwest had its strongest quarter since Q1 2018 and it was the largest increase of all five regions in both shipments and spending.
C
Okay. All right. So Bob, love the Midwest. There's so much the economy and global supply chain depends on so many things happening there in the Midwest. Your thoughts?
A
Well, first of all, it's remarkable that that happened because of the winter weather that a large part the Northeast. I'm sure we'll talk about that shortly in the Midwest experienced during the first quarter. Right. And that those are by the way, when you get those storms like that, they're just sort of lost because it's hard to make up for freight on those days. So I think it's really quite impressive that it happened considering the winter that hit in that area. So what was it? I think somebody mentioned it earlier. You might have mentioned it. I do think there was a bit of a catch up effect with motor vehicles. The Midwest region accounts for about 50% of the value of production of motor vehicles, bodies, trailers, auto parts and so forth. So that was a big help as sort of there was also a little bit of catch up effect there around cars and auto production.
C
Outstanding, Bob. And I'm going to add a little more to that in just a moment. But Corinne, the Midwest, your thoughts what you saw?
D
Yeah, I thought the Midwest was an interesting signal, if you will, in this report. As Bob mentioned, you know, automotive heavy equipment, defense manufacturing in the Midwest as well. These are, you know, we think of them in a broader term of kind of heavy industrial America sectors. But investment there usually indicates growth in other industries over time. So when the Midwest strengthens, it could be a really good indicator for the rest of production and supply chain replenishment. Activity.
C
That's right. Automotive touches so much, it's like housing, it's like maybe aviation, aerospace. All right, so I want to double down and I had to double check my slides because my slides better agree with what Bob says or I'm going to be in trouble. So. But he made such a great point and I think you really see it in this data here, which comes from Fred, the Federal Reserve economic data. It's a great clearinghouse for all kinds of data. So as Bob mentioned and as Corinne and Bobby spoke to the Freight payment Index also mentions if you download it, automotive production increased in first quarter and gave a boost to the freight market really across the Midwest region and really other sectors too. If you look at the US Auto production data that we're talking about, look at it on a chart, man, last few months it's been recovering nicely from its low there you see in November. And this, this chart goes back 12 months. But if you look at a different picture, right, this goes back five years. The domestic auto industry is still trying to capture its recent productivity highs of 2022 and 2023. So we'll see if the recent increase will hold as we get further into this year. Hey, really quick, Bob, little aside, quick prediction based on what your crystal ball says, do you, do you see continued strengthening when it comes to production in the domestic auto industry?
A
Well, I think the challenge for them is going to be two things really. One is interest rates are probably not going to help that sector. I think that there's, you know, at best they'll sort of stay where they are or they could go up, unlikely to go down. If you listen to consumers, what they say over and over is, yes, interest rates are high for things like cars or, you know, if they finance appliances or, or and even homes. But the bigger challenge in many ways is the hyper price of those goods. So it's a double whammy as consumers go out there. Yes, they're sort of catching up. But I think your chart was spot on. It was perfect to show that because they are down, we're up from where we were recently. And I don't think that it'll maybe improve a little bit as we have some catch up effect and replacing cars. But it's going to be a challenge out there. Overall, I think, I don't think it's going to be a boom.
C
All right, so we've got a question for you, Bob, around imports from Canada. I'm gonna get to that in just a second because I want to get to the Northeast and Circle back to Bobby. Bobby, we're headed to the Northeast region, perhaps the population capital of the US If I'm not mistaken. Bobby, what key takeaways.
E
You see, well, there's no surprise here. The fact that severe winter storms disrupted freight early in the quarter in this region, and that ended Northeast region run of sequential shipment gains dating back to the first quarter of 2025.
C
Okay, well, streaks are made to be broken, as they say in baseball. Bob, what'd you see in the Northeast?
A
I think Bobby summed it up. I mean, they got clobbered. Right. I actually have an uncle who is a truck driver, and he sent me pictures of him in New Jersey with just tons. I mean, he was snowed in and so forth. That was a big part of it. Because it's not just you and I as consumers then not going out and buying stuff because we're at home with all this snow. We're not getting to work. Right. We're not going out to restaurants. Manufacturers then are shut down for a day or two. In many cases, it's they not getting inputs in. So you add it all up that those are lost days, and that alone can have a big impact. At least it's specifically in this quarter because as Bobby said, they had been doing really well after being like sort of the worst region for a while during the pandemic and then was starting to come back as consumers in that. That area were doing okay. But I think the winter weather clobbered them.
C
Yep, I'm with you, Bob. And to your point, you said earlier you don't get those days back oftentimes really tough to make up lost time from a production standpoint. And Corinne, the Northeast, your thoughts?
D
Bobby and Bob covered it pretty well. I mean, what this tells us is that shippers were paying a premium just to maintain the flow. So it doesn't indicate growth at all. They lost days, they lost productivity time, but costs still were on the rise.
C
Yep. All right, so I want to follow up. And by the way, I like Bob, I'm still that verb. I think it is clobbered that paints such a clear picture, a very accurate picture. Let's talk about Canada. You know, up there, Northeast, the beautiful Niagara Falls is just around the across the border there. I think Ottawa is up in that neck of the woods. But when you think of Canada, the wonderful, beautiful country of Canada, and you think about imports, exports, especially our relationship with Canada right now. Give us a couple observations there, would you?
A
Yeah, so let's start with just truck transported trade with Canada. It's been down right as you can imagine with tariffs and so forth. I don't think it's surprising. Of course there's a lot of back and forth and so as production fell as we've been talking about for a while that's going to push down freight volumes and we've seen that with with Canada around a lot of different things but certainly around automotive and and so forth. Don't forget too that we import a lot of oil from Canada. In fact that's by far the largest source of imported oil. Remember what we in the US it's kind we are the largest producer of oil in the world but we export a ton and we import a ton because our refineries are not really set up in many cases for the oil that we actually produce. So we have to export the oil we produce and import other. We get that from Canada. So that's great that it's nearby. But that is also impacted some of the Now a lot of that comes by pipeline and so forth. But anyways we saw in the southwest region last year was the first non recession year that we saw volumes with Mexico to fall in a non recession year. Recession years it's fallen Sooner but since 2003 it was the first non recession drop in truck volumes from Mexico. That screams to me tariffs. Right. I mean that is sort of the same but a little bit worse with
C
Canada and it makes us all want to scream. I think it screams tariffs makes us all want to scream. But really quick. Bob, appreciate that rundown on the Canadian side. And of course you mentioned the one blurb in my. Yes, I print these out folks. I practice what I preach. It's a lot of stuff to dive into when it comes to imports exports from Mexico. You mentioned one big signal there. Any other observations about what we're seeing there?
A
Yeah, I mean listen, I think long term it's going to be just fine. I think North American production is going to be good. That's good for trucking. We have USMCA review. I anticipate that gets done. It's a little frosty right now with the Canadians in the U.S. a little bit better with the U.S. and Mexico. But in the end we need this strong North American economy to fuel all of us but also really help trucking volumes and it generates a lot of trucking US trucking jobs and so forth doing this back and forth trade because production is going on in all three countries and trucks are transporting it back and forth and that's really good for for all of us and supply Chains.
C
Bob, I'm with you. And before get back to Bobby and we finished the other region. Got two things. Corinne, I want to check in with you When. When you heard Bob's comments about our trade with our northern and southern neighbors. Anything stick out for you?
D
I think he's spot on. I think that some of the variability we've seen has been because of the tariff situations and, you know, the initial placement of the tariffs and then some changing scale and the tariffs and then action. I, I am a believer that long term there will be something in place that changes the trade policy, if you will. But these partners, you know, Canada and Mexico in particular, these are important partners to the US Economy. And I believe that we'll stabilize and find something that, that works overall and addresses the concerns.
C
I'm with you. It's too much of a terrific opportunity to let it go to waste. Just my personal opinion there. All right, really quick, before we go back to Bobby and talk southeast, you know, when we think about the northeast, we think about a really big port up there, the port of New York and New Jersey. And I stumbled across this top 30 u. S. Port report item from our friends at the cart. Now, if y' all check out the freight payment index, you know seaport activity is critical, right? It's critical. You see it, we reference it regularly at the national level and the regional level. It's just as important to the freight market as it is to really, you know, global supply chain. So I thought it'd be interesting they got finalized volumes here when it comes to TEU 20 foot equivalent unit, if I'm not mistaken. Bob, what it stands for, we love our acronyms and it ranks. That's a core metric for measuring volume, and it shows the top 15 busy sports in terms of full year 2025 volume. No surprises at the top, but we're seeing some movements, a little bit of movement through the top 15 at least. And look at Savannah, Corinne, making us proud here in our home state of Georgia. They continue to expand. It comes in number four in terms of the busiest US port for full year 2025. And of course, Bobby, that brings us officially to the southeast region, which covers a variety of states there, beautiful states there. Bobby, tell us, if you would, your key takeaways for this critical region too.
E
Well, the southeast for the third straight quarter was the only region to post quarterly and year over year declines in shipments. It's only posted two quarterly increases since Q1. 2021.
C
Really? Okay, we got some nuggets here in this edition of the freight payment index. Bob, in the Southeast. Please tell me your thoughts.
A
So this would be another one, I'd say the weather maybe not to the same effect, but we all know that maybe in the Southeast we don't have. There's not the equipment to deal with some of it and the cold. So, you know, people in Northeast and Even here in D.C. we probably laugh a little bit, although, you know, but it did have an impact, right? There's, there's no doubt. And then, you know, not to sort of repeat the same themes, but I think we all think of the Midwest as a big, you know, manufacturing place and it is around autos, but other things. But the Southeast has grown in a lot of those ways, right? We've got, you know, around autos, but also around airplane production and so forth. And so, you know, again, manufacturing output, especially if you take out a couple little relatively small things around computers and so forth, manufacturing production is pretty sluggish. It's not getting worse, but it's not getting much better either. And so I think the combination of all of that impacted the Southeast region also. Then one other thing I'd mention is yes, around winter weather, but also just generally, I think tourism isn't as good as it used to be. And remember spring break, like a lot of people would flock to the Southeast for spring break. And I just don't think you're seeing the numbers for a host of reasons. I think some, maybe not as many foreigners coming in for those types of trips, but also Americans, especially at the lower level of the, the income level, they're struggling. And you know, we're actually seeing real wages as inflation heats up. We're seeing real wages not actually fall again. And you add it all up and I think it hit that region.
C
I'm with you and Bob. We're going to touch on some of the things you mentioned there, Corinne. Bob is right. We get an inch of precipitation and we're clobbered. We're clobbered. We don't know what to do. Corinne, as we bring it home to the Southeast, your thoughts?
D
Yeah, I thought it was interesting. If you read the report, it actually mentions freight tied to data center construction as well. That's a trend that we need to watch because, you know, as we hear about long term build outs to support AI infrastructure, more power generation, these things I think that we may see that begin to influence freight flow and regional capacity patterns in the future. So I just thought that was a really interesting call out in the report itself.
C
Well said, Corinne. Interesting indeed. Folks I want to make sure we've covered a lot of ground in just about 30, 35 minutes. Download your own copy of this report. You know, tell us what you agree with, tell us what you disagree with, what you interpret. Also compare and contrast that from where you are, your organization is what you do. We'd love to hear that, if not today. She's a note. All right, so let's see here. Bob mentioned tourism, right? And there are a variety of data out there that, that points to softer tourism demand in the Southeast and really across the country, and not just for first quarter 2026. One big element to tourism here in the States has been a significant decline in international tourism for a variety of reasons. So I found this data. So this is interesting, I think, from a gee whiz perspective. But you think of Vegas, right? Vegas is a destination for many global travelers for a variety of reasons. Shows, food, gambling, you name it. And look at this. This is data from the Harry Reid Airport, Las Vegas. This shows deployments right at that airport for both domestic travelers and international travelers for full 2025 and 2024. Look at the light blue numbers. Look at the declines, right? See all that, all that dropping below the zero, the middle zero zero line here. But guess what? Moving into this year, it hasn't gotten any better. Now, this is a bit of an eye chart, so bear with me. But this also comes from airport data and from tourismanalytics.com look at what I've circled there in red. This is January and February. It's gotten even worse. There was a 18.6% drop off January 2026 from 2025, year over year, and another almost 11 points in February. So we'll see. We're gonna keep our finger on the pulse, see where this goes. Also see if this is probably not a fair representation of what we're seeing elsewhere, given kind of Vegas is kind of a unique place. But, Bob, really quick tourism, it's not a fair question, but before I ask you some tougher questions, because there's a variety of projections. Your thoughts for what we may see the rest of the year?
A
Yeah, I think it's a whole bunch of things, right? I think we know Canadians are not coming to the US as much as they used to. And I won't get into all the reasons why, but I think we all, we all pretty much know that. I was just in Europe. I have family that lives in Europe. There's Europeans that are sort of nervous about coming to the US because of some of the stuff they hear about ice and so forth. Whether that's realistic or not is for tourists. It's, it's having an impact. But then think about the ripple effect of that, right? Like for example, food production point to GLP1, drugs and so forth on having an impact on food production and, and not needing as much. But I would say this, tourism is also having an impact on that. As you get people coming from outside the country coming in, they need to eat and that's going to also have an impact there as well.
C
Well, I'm glad you brought it home. And really quick, those are dollars. When you see those types of drops and that's just one place, of course those are dollars that aren't going to make it into our economy. And certainly the, the indirect drip down, drop down effect that Bob was referencing, that's very real. Corinne, your quick thoughts?
D
I think he's spot on. I think it's, it's a number of factors coming together. I mean the big question, right, is how much of this is temporary versus how much of it is going to be, you know, systemic over time. For me anyway, it's too soon to tell. With so many things in play from the conflict on a global basis, the tariff situation, fuel cost, etc. I think we're still going to be maybe in, in this period of either constraint or higher volatility for a little while.
C
I agree. Vuca, VUCA is the acronym. I know it's been around for a long time, but it is. This is the year of vuca. Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity as a. That's quite a four horsemen, huh?
D
Eliminated the ambiguity here today. I think we've gotten some pretty good insights from, from Bobby and from Bob today. The other three are absolutely at play.
C
I agree. And this is where this next I've got two tough questions for y' all both. And Bobby, I would love to hear your input on these, but we can't. Bobby, as a fiduciary, a member of US bank can't weigh in on a couple of these things. And anyone that's been watching this show knows that's the case. But Bobby, I know you're going to enjoy these answers as much as I will. And Bob, I want to start with you and I'm gonna be fair to Goldman Sachs, right, I'm gonna start with this headline here because this came out in recent days where Goldman Sachs shared they think the odds of a recession have actually decreased due to some, as they say, some of the US economic resilience that they have measured over the last couple months. Now, a lot of folks disagree with that. I may disagree with that and I'm get Bob's take. But before I get Bob's take, I think it's fair also to mention the report this morning and it came out so fast I didn't get a chance to grab it. Numbers came out from the U.S. government here today that inflation, U.S. inflation rose to 3.8% in April. Oh my gosh. All right. So Bob, the question there, your thoughts on a potential recession later this year or into next year?
A
All right. So my baseline forecast is no recession. Right. But I think we're going to be below trend growth. So less than 2% this year in terms of GDP growth, real GDP growth after inflation in the second half of the year. I've got less than one and a half percent GDP growth for the second half of the year. But the thing that's important for everybody watching this and all of us is this idea of a broader macro recession and what's going on in the goods economy because remember, we are really a services based economy. Goods economy is about a third that is going to grow even less. So last year we saw, for example, all of us buying goods, durable goods, big ticket items as well as non durable goods, things we use in our everyday life. Both of Those increased over 3% after inflation. This year they're going to be 1% or less, you know, tariff goods. Right. And we're seeing inflation, as you mentioned, go up. So, you know, again, no recession. I'm buying into that at the moment. That's what my forecasts show. But I also think we have to understand there's not going to be this surge in activity on the good side in particular. In fact, in some areas there'll be a slowdown, including what we are all buying as households.
C
Yep. And you know, Corinne, I'll get your way in as well. It doesn't have to be a formal recession for there not to be economic pain or supply chain pain out in the marketplace. It's important. Note to to mention as well, Corinne, your thoughts predictions on recession? No recession.
D
I'd say I'm pretty well aligned with what what Bob shared. I think we'll continue to feel the impact of rising costs in a number of areas. I think Everybody, you know, six months, 12 months ago we were all focused on increased cost at the grocery store. I think right now we're feeling it at the gas pump. The grocery store didn't necessarily go away. It's just the new thing we're focused on where we're feeling it the most, but I do think it's going to be in a tighter range and that will be good news as the economy stabilizes over time.
C
Well said. Okay, I got one more question for you both. Hey, really quick. And this comes from CNN.com's prices of fresh fruits and vegetables, which are often transported by refrigerated diesel trucks, rose by 2.3%, the highest monthly increase for that category since 2010. And that's the Bureau of Labor Statistics, where that data comes from. Man. Okay, let's do this. The freight market in the months ahead, the freight market, Bob, what do you think we're going to see?
A
So I think if you start to look at the big buckets of freight, you've got manufacturing activity, you've got construction activity, and you got what are we all buying as households? They're not getting worse in most instances. And that's the good news. But I also don't think you're seeing just as bad big groundswell of more freight activity. And Corinne's brought it up a few times and she's exactly right. Like all of a sudden importers are like, oh, there's an opportunity. They're very opportunistic. Right. Like there's an opportunity. Let's do something now. Let's say we gotta, you know, replenish some inventories and so forth. So you're going to see spikes in activity. But if we sort of smooth it out and look over the long run, I think that you're not going to see a lot of big surge in freight volumes. But with that said, I think this tightness in capacity that is transpired remains, that there's nothing there. That also tells me, guess what, because you're seeing truck orders go up, but we're behind the curve on replacements. I mean, this is a lot of replacement activity. I don't think at this point it's suggesting to me that there's this big capacity build coming. I think you want to talk about affordability and inflation. Equipment prices have gone up substantially. We've got tariffs on trucks from Mexico now. We've got tariffs on trailers from Mexico and other places. So now you've got, yes, you know, there are orders for, for trucks, but I think most of that's replacement activity. So you're going to have this sort of tightness in capacity at least for a period of time. We'll see how long it lasts. But for the foreseeable future, I think we're there.
C
Okay. And Corinne, the billion dollar question. What do you See in the freight market in the months ahead, I think
D
that kind of going back to the start of the conversation, you know, we're looking at double digit cost increases across the board here in, in North America and that is largely capacity driven. I think we still have a long term capacity problem, not just in equipment, as Bob mentioned, but bringing new drivers into the market as well, recruiting talent into these important jobs. I think we have to stay focused on that as well from a supply chain and moving goods.
C
I think you're both right and I would just add I'm going to go back to this visual I shared on manufacturing inputs and my prediction is you see what it looked like on the way over here at the coming into 2022. I hope it doesn't climb that mountain that high. But we're going to see this, this little trend that started in the coming months. I think we're going to see it to continue to rise based on a lot of what we've talked about here. But certainly energy prices, diesel prices, the spillover effect from all the friction that we're finding, you know, trade related, geopolitical related. It's going to be a challenge in 2026 whether a formal recession is declared or not. Good stuff here today, Bobby. Now we're circling back to you because what I want to do, I want to make sure that folks know exactly where to get their hands on the great work that you and the team publish once a quarter and make it free to the public. That is a terrific service. And Bob, appreciate of course your contributions each quarter to that. So Bobby, where can folks find it?
E
Freight.usbank.com Sign up a little bit of information just so we know who is requesting it and email address and it comes to you. Like you said, quarterly day of publication right to your email box.
C
Outstanding Bobby, you're doing good work, really appreciate that. And always enjoy and always get an education when Bobby and friends come once a quarter to supply chain now and share especially the most important things that, that shippers and supply chain leaders, financial leaders, business leaders got to pay attention to when it comes to the domestic freight market. All right, so Bob, you've got a really big event coming up at the ata. Of course we also have one of my favorite things that you are big supporters and market leaders around Driver Appreciation Week. Truck Driver Appreciation Week coming up in September if I'm not mistaken. But where can folks find more about you, what you do, what the organization does? How can, how can folks do that?
A
People can find more about those meetings and Other things about ata@trucking.org that's our website.
C
One quick question, Bob. Hollywood, Florida is are there black tie events, red carpets like they are in other Hollywood?
A
I don't think so.
C
All right, maybe a few more flip flops. Who knows? All right, Corinne Bursa, you're getting the toughest question perhaps of the day. Although we threw some big ones to Bob and Bobby. If folks had to boil it down to one key takeaway from the last hour, which was quite an informative, fast moving hour, what would that be? Corinne?
D
You know I'm a big one on facts, not feelings. But I have to admit that when Bob just said he's feeling a little optimism coming in his upcoming sessions, that made me smile just a little bit. So I kind of leaned into that. And that's more of a feeling than it is a fact at this point in time. I think this report, the US bank report, you know, it's a resource for better decision making. And this quarter's reports, the insights that Bobby Holland and Bob Costello shared with us today, they really help us look at this with a clear window and the health of commerce. When transportation networks tighten, fuel costs spike. As we discussed those costs or the effects, they ripple across the entire economy. So as supply chain leaders, I think we've got to stay alert. We need to tap into resources like this and the conversations around them to help guide our strategies as we counter or harness opportunities in the marketplace. But the bottom line is it's a great time to be in supply chain and great information, data, insights, they're going to help us drive positive action.
C
I'm with you. And I knew that was coming, Corinne. I knew that was coming at some point. But you know, kidding aside, there's mixed signals for sure. But that practical optimism call out is a good one. All right, so big thanks. Bobby Holland, director, Freight Business analytics at U S Bank. Bobby, thank you so much, my friend.
E
Thank you all. Appreciate it.
C
And Bob Costello, chief economist and senior vice president of international trade and security policy for the American Trucking Associations. Trucking.org folks. Bob, thanks for being here, my friend.
A
Loved it. Great conversation, no doubt.
C
Corinne Bursa, always a pleasure. Really enjoy your perspective and also help me because you know, Bobby and Bob are a few pay grades above mine. I appreciate how you kind of take what they say and give me bites of the apple and help me understand and track with them and of course love your perspective as well. Thanks for being here, Corinne.
D
Thanks, Scott. I think you're throwing a little sunshine there. Yeah, I mean, you're bringing some other data to the table here today. So all good stuff and always a pleasure to be with with Bobby Holland and Bob Costello.
C
That's right. Same agreed. All right. So folks, the billion dollar questions. What do you do right at the last hour you got the Freight Payment index, which is chock full of good stuff, actionable stuff. Then you got Bobby's and Bob's and Corinne's perspective rooted in bedrock. It's up to you what you do with it. Right? You got to do something with it. Deeds, not words. What we tout here today, take one thing from Bobby or Bob or Corinne and do something with that here today. And with all that said, Scott Luton, challenge, you do good, give forward, be the change that's needed. And we'll see you next time right back here on Supply Chain Now. Thanks everybody.
B
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Supply Chain Now Podcast — Detailed Summary
Episode: Analysis of the Q1 2026 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index
Date: May 27, 2026
Host(s): Scott Luton & Corinne Bursa
Guests: Bobby Holland (Director, Freight Business Analytics, U.S. Bank), Bob Costello (Chief Economist & SVP, American Trucking Associations)
This episode examines the Q1 2026 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, one of the transportation industry’s most respected indicators for shipment and spend trends. Hosts Scott Luton and Corinne Bursa are joined by industry experts Bobby Holland (U.S. Bank) and Bob Costello (ATA) to discuss the recent data, what it signals for the U.S. and regional supply chain markets, and how leaders can use these insights for strategic planning. The conversation blends data-driven analysis with practical, on-the-ground perspectives, highlighting sector-wide challenges, economic trends, and projections for the remainder of the year.
| Timestamp | Segment/Insight | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 06:35 | Bobby Holland’s summary theme: Tight capacity, rising costs, flat volumes | | 10:11 | National highlights: Double-digit spend increases across all regions | | 13:25 | West region analysis: Manufacturing and tariffs | | 17:26 | Southwest: Declining shipments, stabilizing trends, oil production challenges | | 21:46 | Midwest: Automotive-driven bounce and resilience against weather | | 26:12 | Northeast: Winter storms “clobber” freight, streak of gains broken | | 33:23 | Southeast: Only region with ongoing shipment declines, data center build-out cited | | 38:27 | Tourism effects: Declining international visitors, economic ripple effects | | 41:38 | Recession outlook: Below trend growth, goods sector challenges | | 44:31 | Freight market outlook: No big surges, tight capacity, inflation and tariffs ahead | | 49:38 | Key takeaway: “Facts, not feelings,” practical optimism, data-driven decisions |
Summary Takeaway:
Amid a tight-capacity, high-cost freight environment, smart supply chain leaders will rely on credible data and remain agile—recognizing opportunity in volatility while keeping sight of long-term strategy, regional nuances, and workforce development. As always, facts—not feelings—are the guide.
“It’s a great time to be in supply chain... practical optimism.” – Corinne Bursa [49:38]