Supply Chain Now – Review of the Inaugural U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index - Rates Edition

Date: January 28, 2026
Host: Scott Luton
Guests:

• Jake Barr (Supply Chain Hall of Famer)
• Bobby Holland (Director, Freight Business Analytics, U.S. Bank)
• Dr. Chris Capless (Chief Scientist, DAT Freight & Analytics)

Overview: Main Theme and Purpose

This episode of Supply Chain Now offers a deep dive into the inaugural U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index – Rates Edition, a new quarterly report generated through collaboration between U.S. Bank and DAT Freight Analytics. The hosts and expert guests discuss this new tool's value, what the latest edition reveals about current freight and trucking markets, and how supply chain leaders can use the data to drive smarter, more agile decisions. The conversation covers national trends, regional nuance, current economic signals, and the critical need to translate market intelligence into actionable strategies.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Introducing the Rates Edition Index

• The Rates Edition supplements the main Freight Payment Index by focusing specifically on spot and contract rates, fuel rates, and cost-per-mile data for dry van transportation—the industry’s largest data set.
• Purpose: Provide actionable insights so leaders can anticipate market shifts and remain agile (“The data is to equip you to actually turn it into action, not something you stick in a file cabinet.” – Jake Barr, 00:00, 43:27).

Notable Collaboration

• U.S. Bank: $43B in annual freight payments processed
• DAT: Database covering $1T in freight transactions
• Both companies referred to as "data powerhouses" (02:14).

2. What the Data Shows: National Market Trends

• Spot vs. Contract Rates: Contract rates remain steady; spot rates are more volatile, often the “canary in the coal mine,” leading contract rate shifts by several months (14:45).

  • “Spot rates are much more volatile. They’re the canary in the coal mine... gives you a leg up on what happens.” – Chris Capless, 14:45

• Current Market State:

  • We’re in a slow, uneven recovery after a long trough (“slouching towards recovery”).
  • Capacity remains tight—volumes are down, but rates haven’t followed, suggesting high costs are being passed along (13:11, 19:16).
  • Carriers are exiting the market faster than new entries (as per FMCSA data, 16:44).

• Economic Backdrop:

  • U.S. manufacturing shows contraction for 10th straight month.
  • Consumer spending and retail sales show growth (17:50).
  • Ongoing shake-up in carrier authorizations seen as masking capacity shortages rather than true excess.

Quote:

“If you’re a carrier or broker, happy days are finally coming... if you’re a shipper, you’ve had your day. The market’s tightening, but not dramatically—a slow grind back above equilibrium.”
— Dr. Chris Capless (17:50)

3. Regional Observations & Nuance

• Northeast: Strength in outbound volume driven by manufacturing and retail upticks.
• Southeast: Softer job market and consumer spending dampen freight.
• Midwest: Issues with cross-border traffic and refinery disruptions affect fuel/rates.
• West Coast/Northwest: Rapid spot rate spikes, especially temp-control out of California and NW, due to agricultural season and factors like enforcement of non-domicile regulations (22:10, 23:56).

Memorable Analogy:

“It’s almost like we’re playing whack-a-mole. We deploy ice, drivers don’t want to go some places, things change very quickly.”
— Jake Barr (23:09)

4. Actions for Supply Chain Leaders

• Build Foundational Agility:

  • “Repair your roof before it starts raining.” – Chris Capless (27:26)
  • Strengthen and diversify carrier relationships in advance.
  • Incorporate scenario modeling, move away from static spreadsheets, and make use of innovative tech (27:51).
  • Analyze all freight moves, set up dedicated loops, and promote network flexibility.

• Tactical Recommendations:

  • Watch spot market signals closely: they preface broader rate shifts.
  • Increase internal coordination across planning, marketing, procurement, and transport.
    • “A lot of the uncertainty... is self-inflicted. Departments don’t talk. Suddenly you need trucks out of Albuquerque—talk internally to reduce volatility.” – Chris Capless (29:17)

• Prepare for Tariff and Regulatory Changes:

  • Assume tariffs are negotiating tools; don’t plan billion-dollar infrastructure on their permanence.
  • If sourcing shifts, build flexibility to respond to changes in points of origin and shipment flows readily.
  • Leverage specialized customs/tariff experts for scenario planning.

• Workforce & Automation:

  • US manufacturing isn’t likely to make sudden, massive shifts based on trade policy. Investment is flowing instead into process automation and workforce upskilling (35:35, 37:28).

5. Forecasts & Bold Predictions

• Tariff regime is likely to undergo legal and structural changes, but the effect will be more disruption and need for agility, not an opportunity for “set and forget” planning (32:30, 38:44).
• Continued focus on process/decision automation and flexible sourcing strategies rather than heavy new-plant investments.
• Companies lagging in scenario planning or relying on old methods (“magic 8 ball”) will be at risk.

Quote:

“Shame on you if you haven’t already started playing the what-if games and the scenario modeling of how you’re going to pivot and shift.” — Jake Barr (31:56)

6. Making It Actionable

• Repeated call to do something with the data:
  • “The purpose of the data is to equip you to actually turn it into action…make you step back and think…so you can keep your supply chains agile and relevant.” – Jake Barr (43:27)
  • “You waste it if you don’t do anything with it. Take one thing you heard here, share it, do something with it.” – Scott Luton (46:36)

Timestamped Highlights & Quotes

• 00:00 / 43:27 – Jake Barr:
  “The purpose of the data is to give you, to equip you to actually turn it into action, not something you stick in a file cabinet...it’s about using it to better prepare yourself...to keep your supply chains agile and relevant.”

• 14:45 – Dr. Chris Capless:
  “Spot rates are much more volatile. They’re the canary in the coal mine...gives you a leg up on what happens.”

• 17:50 – Dr. Chris Capless:
  “We’re slouching towards recovery. If you’re a carrier or broker, happy days are finally coming. If you’re a shipper—you had your day. It’ll be a slow grind back above equilibrium.”

• 23:09 – Jake Barr:
  “It’s almost like we’re playing whack-a-mole. We deploy ice, drivers don’t want to go some places, things change very quickly.”

• 27:26 – Dr. Chris Capless:
  “Repair your roof now before it starts raining.”

• 29:17 – Dr. Chris Capless:
  “Much of the uncertainty is self-inflicted. Planning doesn’t talk to marketing, doesn’t talk to transportation. Suddenly you need 12 trucks out of Albuquerque. Work internally—it’ll help reduce volatility.”

• 31:56 – Jake Barr:
  “Shame on you if you haven’t already started playing the what-if games and the scenario modeling of how you’re going to pivot and shift.”

Accessing the Rates Edition

• Direct Link: freight.usbank.com
  • “It’s that easy...same as the main index” – Bobby Holland (42:02)
• Feedback, suggestions, and user experiences are encouraged for continuous improvement.

Conclusion & Takeaways

This episode underscores the critical importance of timely, actionable data in supply chain decision-making. The new U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index Rates Edition—powered by the partnership between U.S. Bank and DAT—offers industry professionals an unprecedented window into rate trends and market signals. But the real value comes when leaders use this intelligence to upgrade their scenario planning, invest in network and process flexibility, foster internal collaboration, and keep ahead of changing tides in regulation, economics, and the labor market.

Final Word:

“You waste it if you don’t do anything with it. Take one thing you heard, share it, do something with it.” — Scott Luton (46:36)

For more insightful supply chain discussions, subscribe to Supply Chain Now and download the latest Rates Edition for your team.