Supply Chain Now: The Buzz – "A New Era of Geopolitical Challenges"

Date: September 26, 2025
Hosts: Scott Luton & Jake Barr
Guests: Karai Kose (Kozay Advisory), Pierre Abu Ahmad (Sitwell)

Episode Overview

This episode of “The Buzz” dives into how today’s complex and volatile geopolitical landscape is impacting global supply chains. Moderated by Scott Luton and Jake Barr, with expert input from Karai Kose and Pierre Abu Ahmad, the discussion covers the ripple effects of trade wars, tariffs, and shifting global alliances. The hosts and guests use real-world examples — from the price of coffee to lessons from WWII destroyers — to highlight how leadership, adaptability, and technology are critical in supply chain management today.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Leadership in the “Never Normal” Era

Timestamps: 00:28 – 08:42

• Theme: Constant disruption is the new normal for supply chains. Leadership, resilience, and adaptability are more critical than ever.
• AI's Role: Leaders are experimenting with targeted, pragmatic AI pilots to solve complex problems (examples: Hasbro’s 65-page AI assessment, Lamb Weston’s AI-optimized inventory).
• Takeaway: “Growth doesn’t happen when you’re comfortable. It happens when you’re stretched, tested and maybe even a little terrified.” – Scott, 02:56

Quote:

“Each of those women did a remarkable job of talking about how they...are really leaning into challenge and creating calm out of the chaos.”
— Jake Barr, 04:59

2. Current Pulse: Global Supply Chain Priorities

Timestamps: 06:49 – 08:42

• AI Adoption: Focused AI applications remain top of mind; successful leaders start small and scale up.
• Operational Focus: Simplicity, boundary-setting, and incremental automation drive efficiency.

Quote:

“Starting small, crawl your way into it...then you scale from there and reapply.”
— Jake Barr, 08:30

3. Geopolitical Pressures: Coffee Tariffs as a Case Study

Timestamps: 13:01 – 18:26

• Impact: Coffee prices have increased 21% YoY in 2025 due to tariffs on Brazil and Vietnam and other supply shocks.
• Broader Trend: Other commodities (cocoa, olive oil, wheat) are also facing similar pressures.
• Organizational Response:
  • Existing contingency plans aren’t enough; companies need long-term vision and to invest in know-how, not just alternative sources.
  • Mass roasters like JM Smucker are hit hard due to rigid supply chains and lack of sophistication.

Notable Quotes:

“It's not only about planting...you need the know-how. That's something people neglect a lot.”
— Pierre Abu Ahmad, 14:50

“If you didn’t do anything about it, shame on you.”
— Karai Kose, 17:13

“This is just symptomatic of a much bigger issue...you must rethink those battles in advance.”
— Jake Barr, 17:17

4. Supply Chain ‘Wars’ and Geopolitical Realignment

Timestamps: 20:12 – 23:58

• From Waiting to Acting: Sitting on the sidelines is no longer a viable strategy. Companies must “pick a side,” commit and engage rather than wait for stability.
• Evolving Global Roles: The West can no longer rely on a simple “innovate here, manufacture there” model — the balance is shifting.
• Learning from History: Failure to heed lessons from prior economic shifts, e.g., Japan post-WWII, is repeating as hubris.

Notable Quotes:

“The obstacle becomes the way...not the waiting period.”
— Karai Kose, 21:45

“If you're not learning from history, you become a victim of it.”
— Jake Barr, 23:50

5. History as Supply Chain Teacher: Lessons from USS Cassin Young

Timestamps: 26:44 – 30:33

• Parallels: The discipline of accurate recordkeeping and process rigor on a WWII naval ship aligns closely with modern supply chain challenges.
• Technology Caveat: Technology alone can’t rescue a broken or “dirty” process.
• Key Message: Simplify, standardize, automate—but don’t overlook the human basics.

Notable Quotes:

“You can't improve a dirty process with technology.”
— Karai Kose, 28:30

“Supply chain complexity, no matter what we look at, has been amplified by magnitude of ten to one hundred or a thousand.”
— Jake Barr, 30:00

6. Transformation as the Norm — Not a Phase

Timestamps: 34:48 – 39:17

• Continuous Change: Transformation fatigue is real, but so is the need for perpetual improvement.
• Human Engagement: Focus, explanation of ‘why,’ and celebrating milestones are crucial to keep teams motivated.

Notable Quotes:

“Transformation is not only a transition, it’s norm.”
— Pierre Abu Ahmad, 35:37

“If I can't make you...have passion about where we're going, I've already lost.”
— Jake Barr, 37:56

7. Practical Strategies to Mitigate Change Fatigue

Timestamps: 39:17 – 43:28

• Celebrate Small Wins: Vital for morale in ongoing transformation.
• Scheduled Breathers: Leaders should intentionally create short breaks in change cycles.
• Rotate Teams: Prevent burnout by rotating contributors.

Memorable Story:

“[Sandra McQuillen, ex-Kimberly Clark CPO]...We stop and we celebrate as we cross each finish line. But there’s lots of finish lines.”
— Scott Luton, 42:19

8. Peak Season Predictions & Final Takeaways

Timestamps: 43:37 – 48:41

• Near-term concerns: Even more acute shortages in electronics, chips, rare earths; rising food (especially wheat, olive oil) prices due to war and climate.
• Action Required: Teams must prepare for new trade ramifications, model scenarios, and modernize technology.
• Mindset Shift: “We are truly in a new period of never normal.” Don’t stand still.

Quotes:

“The tit for tat on ramifications of the tariff implications are not over by a long shot.”
— Jake Barr, 45:23

“If you didn’t walk away with a reinforced appreciation for needing to get off my ass and really get to work, you’ve missed the point.”
— Jake Barr, 48:25

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Tariffs & Supply Chain Adaptation:
  “It’s not just money and decision, but start investing also in people...solutions are not going to be easy on that side.”
  — Pierre Abu Ahmad, 14:50

• On Dirty Data & Process:
  “Dirty process, good technology equals to no good results.”
  — Karai Kose, 28:30

• On Learning from History:
  “Fundamentally, if you’re not learning from history, you become a victim of it.”
  — Jake Barr, 23:50

• On Leadership Motivation:
  “If I can't make you...have passion about where we're going, I've already lost.”
  — Jake Barr, 37:56

• One-liner Takeaway:
  “Deeds, not words. That’s how we’re going to continue transforming global supply chain and not leaving anybody behind.”
  — Scott Luton, 49:00

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Leadership Pulse Check: 00:28–08:42
• Coffee Tariff Case Study: 13:01–18:26
• Supply Chain Wars & Geopolitics: 20:12–23:58
• USS Cassin Young Lessons: 26:44–30:33
• Transformation as Norm: 34:48–39:17
• Handling Change Fatigue: 39:17–43:28
• Predictions & Final Insights: 43:37–48:41

Resources & Further Reading

• Kozay Advisory & Karai Kose on LinkedIn
• Sitwell & Pierre Abu Ahmad on LinkedIn
• GlobSec Research (Free Reports)
• Relevant Forbes Article by Karai Kose (link in podcast comments)

Conclusion

This episode reinforces the urgency for supply chain leaders to move beyond comfort zones, embrace technology thoughtfully, and continuously learn from the past to navigate the ongoing geopolitical storm. The new never-normal demands not only operational excellence but bold, proactive strategy — and an unrelenting focus on people as much as process and technology.