Supply Chain Now – The Buzz: Holiday Supply Chain Dynamics

Date: October 31, 2025
Hosts: Scott Luton, Marty Parker
Featured Guest: Don Hicks (Founder & CEO, Optilogic)

Episode Overview

This lively episode of The Buzz dives into the complex world of holiday-related supply chain pressures—covering everything from shifting holiday toy demand and Halloween retail surges, to major global sourcing shifts, tariff battles, and the rapid evolution of supply chain design driven by new technologies. Scott and Marty are joined by supply chain innovator Don Hicks, who shares compelling perspectives on scenario planning, stress-testing supply chains, and how industry players are bracing for continued turbulence. Throughout, the team blends practical news, candid anecdotes, and actionable leadership wisdom.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage and Leadership Pulse Check

(00:06–12:25)

• The episode kicks off with local banter (rain in Atlanta, market price of lumber!) and a rundown of the day’s agenda: news that matters, holiday supply chain stresses, scenario modeling, plus a conversation with Don Hicks.

• Leadership Highlight: Marty shares lessons from King’s Hawaiian’s “aloha values” and their culture of frank, empathetic communication.

  • Marty Parker (07:13):
    “I think it’s their aloha values…excellence, dignity, telling it like it is in a way that can be heard and having courage. I love that—telling it like it is, but in a way that can be heard.”

• Leaders are reminded to model the behavior they want to see, and candid communication is championed as vital for effective supply chain operations.

2. Supply Chain News Roundup

(12:27–21:43)

• Tech in Supply Chain: SAP’s launch of Supply Chain Orchestration and new resource recommendations are discussed.

• AI & People-Centric Tech:

  • Scott Luton (04:26):
    “I love this perspective here. Craig [Jones at On Running] said tech should help people, not stress them out… we need more of that in global supply chains and in global business.”

• Shifting Retail Strategies (Mattel Case Study):

  • Holiday toy giant Mattel faces a 6% dip in Q3 sales. Ongoing tariffs and the “train war” have forced Mattel to adapt by increasing domestic shipping and handling their own warehousing, with retailers doubling down on just-in-time (JIT) inventory and frequent ordering.
  • Don Hicks (17:05):
    “These are people…who are already used to dealing with turbulence and change…They consider themselves to have a world-class supply chain organization...But now nobody really has a clear view into what the longer term looks like. That makes it virtually impossible to settle in on a strategy.”
  • Marty Parker (18:25):
    “The best in supply chain are still struggling with all this... I have to say though, I'm a girl dad… it was a terrible day when my daughter told me, dad, you can no longer play Barbies with us.”

3. Tariffs and Global Trade Dynamics

(21:43–23:56)

• The U.S. Supreme Court is about to consider the legality of tariffs levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act; a government loss could mean massive refunds to shippers.
• Don Hicks (21:04):
  "I'd love to see us over time start to think before we talk and better yet, think before we make policy... who knows what's going to happen. But remember, just because he says something doesn't mean they're going to do it."
• Both hosts and guest stress that “ready, fire, aim” decision-making and trade volatility hinder long-term planning and erode trust—one of the “biggest currencies of global supply chain.”
• Marty Parker (23:29):
  “Big companies can pay and get around these things, small companies can't. And our economy is mostly made up of small companies.”

4. Halloween & Holiday Supply Chains

(23:56–31:47)

• 2025 Halloween by the Numbers:

  • U.S. consumers to spend a record $13.1B, with $4.3B on costumes.
  • Party City acquisitions and manufacturing in Madagascar to support proprietary costuming.
  • Manufacturers, distributors, and retailers face immense pressure due to a highly compressed demand “microburst” (6–8 weeks) followed by a hard stop after Nov 1.

• Industry Strategies:

  • Don notes that promotional events like Halloween are not volatile for planners; they become a competitive advantage for those who excel at handling these recurring demand spikes.
    • Don Hicks (26:31):
      “It seems volatile to us because of its short duration, but it’s not volatile to people who study these things. They know it’s coming, they plan for it... Getting good at promotional drives...it’s a source of competitive advantage.”

• Memory & Culture:

  • Halloween customs, pumpkin trivia (Illinois leads the nation!), and candy debates enliven the conversation.
    • Don Hicks (30:04): “I’m for [candy corn]. I’m a bit of a contrarian … once a year, your teeth start hurting immediately … but it screams the holiday.”

5. Supply Chain Scenario Modeling & Design

(32:30–40:08)

• Don Hicks on Design Mindsets:

  • “Design” means not just high-level strategy but ongoing system and network evaluation and adaptation. Most organizations must cultivate discipline to simultaneously optimize current operations and envision transformative scenarios—emphasizing both mindset and toolsets over shiny technology.
    • Don Hicks (32:30):
      “Design doesn’t specifically mean high-level strategy. Design means changing the network, changing the system that you’re trying to run… You really can’t plan and design simultaneously... We talk to our companies about cultivating the discipline to both get better at your current network and constantly be changing and looking ahead and say, what if this, what if that?”

• Marty Parker (35:14):
  “Most manufacturing and supply chain locations are accidents of history… people don’t go back and look at that stuff. … Spend some time working on the business because there’s a lot of savings to be had.”

6. Reshoring, Nearshoring, and Future Sourcing

(37:14–40:08)

• Don describes how supply chains are now considering variables beyond just cost: lead time, capability, safety, skill, and regulatory environment.
  • China is now a high-skill, high-capability provider, not just low cost.
  • Attention is turning to regions like sub-Saharan Africa for long-term diversification.
    • Don Hicks (37:14):
      “There is no one long term answer... The capital matters less than the variable cost differentials... Pay attention to underlying dynamics of demographics and the environment—that’s where you'll find the opportunities.”
  • Tariffs alone won’t bring manufacturing back to the U.S.—investments in education and workforce development are critical.

7. The Next Wave: AI in Supply Chain Design

(42:05–46:16)

• Don is optimistic about the productivity breakthroughs that AI will bring, but stresses human context is still vital, especially for uncertain/novel scenarios:

  • Manual data-wrangling will diminish; humans will play an elevated, creative, and decision-guiding role.
    • Don Hicks (42:05):
      “We’ve been in a hype cycle ... I see an emergence of more of a practical hard edge to say what is AI going to do, and also what can’t it do... Next year, design one year from now will not look like design has looked like for 25 years. Humans are going to be in the driver’s seat… AI is not magical, it’s just better.”

• Marty Parker (44:09):
  “Meetings were the most inefficient thing on earth. Now [with AI] they’re going to be efficient, and we’re going to be able as humans to make better decisions in them and free up time.”

8. Culture & Leadership – The Real Differentiator

(45:24–46:16)

• Don Hicks (45:24):
  “Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk about culture... The winners and the best companies get determined by the culture of how you get people to work together … AI doesn’t change any of that.”

• The most successful supply chain organizations cultivate trust, shared values, and human-centered leadership, regardless of technological shifts.

Notable Quotes

• Don Hicks on the uncertainty of global strategy (17:49):
  “What do you do when the long term is truly uncertain?”

• Don Hicks on tariffs and policy (21:04):
  “Perhaps our Secretary of Treasury might be saying some stuff… that perhaps the government can’t actually even… they may not be able to even get all that stuff back on out there.” (Top Gun reference: “Son, your mouth’s writing checks your body can’t cash.”)

• Don Hicks on Halloween supply chains (26:31):
  “If you can get better at all the holidays, you can get better at tackling things like microbursts, which are fueled by social media influencers.”

• Don Hicks on AI and design (42:05):
  “We think there’s going to be a bunch of big productivity breakthroughs… Design one year from now will not look like design has looked for the last 25 years.”

• Marty Parker on locus of control (48:54):
  “There are all kinds of things actually in our control—how we make decisions, how we create culture, how we learn these new technologies… Think of our own locus of control and focus on that, and focus less on worrying about all the things outside of us.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:06–03:43: Welcomes, audience engagement, show agenda
• 07:13: Culture & communication—King’s Hawaiian Leadership
• 12:27: Tech News: SAP Supply Chain Orchestration
• 17:05: Mattel’s holiday pressures & adaptation
• 21:04: Tariffs, Supreme Court case, refund dilemma
• 25:03: Halloween trends, T-shirt humor, and industry stats
• 26:31: Promotional demand cycles as opportunity
• 32:30: Don’s take on “design” mindset & scenario planning
• 37:14: Reshoring, Africa as a sourcing frontier
• 42:05: The “what’s next” in AI and supply chain design
• 45:24: The enduring power of culture over strategy
• 48:54: Key takeaways and practical leadership advice

Useful Links Shared in the Episode

• Retail Dive article on Mattel
• ThomasNet Halloween stats
• Frank and Walnut: Don Hicks’ children’s book on anti-bullying
• Optilogic Free Supply Chain Design Tools
• AutoScheduler Warehouse Agent

Conclusion & Takeaways

• 2025’s supply chain leaders face simultaneous, compounding challenges: international trade volatility, talent gaps, tech disruption, and compressed/volatile demand cycles for major holidays.
• The show’s recurring message: Focus on what you can control—communication, culture, candid analysis, and investing in capabilities that help your teams scenario plan and adapt.
• The smart play is to combine the best of AI and simulation with human judgment and collaborative culture, treating holiday “microbursts” as laboratories for continuous improvement and innovation.
• Above all, supply chain professionals are reminded to share lessons, work on (not just in) the business, and model the values they want to see—because culture, trust, and adaptability remain the differentiators.

Next Steps:
Follow Don Hicks and Optilogic for their latest insights; connect with Scott Luton and Marty Parker for more leadership content; and subscribe to Supply Chain Now for a regular “buzz” on all things supply chain.