Supply Chain Now – The Buzz: Insights on Holiday Consumer Behavior Episode Date: November 14, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of "The Buzz" dives deep into current and emerging dynamics impacting the supply chain, with a sharp focus on holiday consumer behavior. Hosts Scott Luton and Corinne Bursa are joined by Chris Butler, CEO of National Tree Company, who shares firsthand insights into consumer trends, holiday sales patterns, tariff impacts, and the fundamental importance of resilient, adaptive supply chain leadership. The conversation covers automotive supply chain woes, warehouse demand, the impact of tariffs and inflation, and evolving consumer shopping behaviors—tying it all together with practical supply chain strategies.

Main Discussion Highlights

1. Industry News and Noteworthy Milestones

• Podcast & Newsletter Milestones
  • Celebrated the 150th edition of their newsletter "With That Said" and the 1,500th episode of Supply Chain Now.
    • "1500. So 10 times the number of. With that said, oh my gosh." – Corinne (02:36)
• Key Automotive Supply Chain Challenge
  • Semiconductor shortages from Nexperia, a Chinese-owned Dutch manufacturer, notably impacted Honda’s Mexico plant, illustrating extreme global interdependency and susceptibility to tariffs and trade deals.
    • "How many parts does it take to build an automobile? All of them." – Scott quoting an industry joke (02:44)

2. Market Pulse: Warehouse and Freight Activity

• US Warehouse Demand
  • Phoenix and Indianapolis are hot markets (Q3 2025), indicative of shifting logistics hubs (03:34).
• US Bank Freight Payment Index
  • Freight volumes down nationally, only two out of five regions saw increases compared to both last quarter and last year.
    • "These are products that are in motion... a real indicator of commerce." – Corinne (09:40)

3. Executive Pulse Check: Top Priorities for Supply Chain Leaders

• Scenario Planning Amid Tariff Uncertainty
  • Leaders focus on scenario analysis, AI-driven forecasting, and resilience building.
    • "They're looking for wins... better decisions, more precision... so that their teams have greater confidence in network performance." – Corinne (06:23)
• AI Adoption
  • Companies push for tangible AI gains, moving from predictive/analytics to agentic planning.

4. Major Events & Resources

• Manifest 2026 Conference Announcement
  • Next year's event will feature 400 speakers and 150 sessions, shaping the future of supply chain (11:05).
• Recommended Resources
  • Gartner research and U.S. Bank's Freight Payment Index, plus new OMP ebook: "Making AI Work for You."

Interview with Chris Butler, CEO of National Tree Company

Company Overview and Consumer Trends

• Artificial Trees Dominate Holiday Decor
  • "85% of Americans celebrate Christmas with a tree... about 80% of those households celebrate with an artificial tree." – Chris (17:30)
  • Trends for shape and lighting stay consistent; ~30% of artificial trees are sold online, as many consumers still want to physically assess the product.
• Sales Cycle & Seasonality
  • Sales ramp steeply from October and spike on Thanksgiving weekend, lasting through December 15th (13:56).
  • "Sales are ramping up exponentially... every weekend, basically the sales are exponentially larger than the prior weekend." – Chris (13:56)
• Adding Authenticity: ScentSicles
  • Products like ScentSicles provide traditional pine scent to artificial trees (20:08).
    • "Smell of Christmas in a bottle, for sure." – Chris (20:20)

Tariffs, Inflation, and Supply Chain Flexibility

• Tariffs on Chinese goods (sometimes as high as 145%) forced National Tree Company and others to diversify production locations and manage rising costs.
  • "Oil production in China basically came to a grinding halt while companies tried to figure out... we can't afford to bring in product that are two and a half times more expensive." – Chris (21:27)
• Softening consumer demand is paired with tighter supply and slight (but not extreme) price increases for holiday goods.
• Key to weathering the storm: "Flexible and fast are the key attributes of any good supply chain organization."_ – Chris (25:15)

Consumer Behavior: Holiday Shopping Patterns & Fulfillment

• Smearing Effect (Spread-Out Sales)
  • Retailers prolong sales seasons, e.g., starting Halloween and Christmas promotions earlier each year, maximizing sales opportunities.
    • "Retail is a brutal business and so you want to make sure you get your product in front of consumers as much as possible." – Chris (28:57)
• E-Commerce vs. In-Store
  • "Peak for us is the Thanksgiving weekend... more and more consumers are deal savvy." – Chris (33:13)
  • Consumers prioritize fast delivery and shipping reliability for late-season purchases to avoid disappointment.
    • "The time it takes to get that product delivered during the season is probably the most important differentiator." – Chris (33:13)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Supply Chain Complexity:
  • “Let’s talk global for just a minute. We’ve got a Dutch company operating in China with a Chinese owned manufacturing facility that is supplying a Japanese owned auto manufacturer for a plant in Mexico... And then you sprinkle in a little tariff turmoil…” – Corinne (04:06)
• On Brand Experience:
  • “Don’t assign that brand promise to a third party or if you do, do so at your own peril.” – Scott (36:51)
• On the Human Side of Supply Chain:
  • _"A CEO that can talk supply chain to me is always ways that much more interesting... brings to the forefront how important supply chain is to a business." – Corinne (38:39)
• On CSCO Leadership:
  • “Manufacturing is a pivotal part of the supply chain and it should report organizationally into those programs... a chief supply chain officer has a seat at the table.” – Corinne (41:37, 43:46)
• Consumer Preferences and Shopping Modes:
  • “If you’re decorating... you may not just put up one [wreath], you may put in the south, we put them on several windows.” – Corinne (35:35)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:14 – 02:44: Introductions, episode milestones, and global supply chain news
• 03:34 – 05:13: US warehouse trends; semiconductor shortages and global complexity
• 06:23 – 10:16: Leadership pulse; scenario planning and AI in supply chain
• 11:05 – 12:50: Manifest 2026 event preview
• 13:38 – 17:30: Introduction of Chris Butler, company overview, and holiday trends
• 21:27 – 26:09: Tariff impacts, inflation, and business adaptation
• 28:57 – 31:37: The smearing effect and retail timing strategies
• 33:13 – 35:35: Consumer shopping behaviors: delivery timing, e-commerce, and fulfillment
• 41:37 – 44:43: Gartner research on supply chain leadership; value of CSCOs
• 45:13 – 47:42: Closing thoughts, event updates, and audience interaction

Summary – Why This Episode Matters

This episode offers a comprehensive, practical look into the holiday supply chain landscape—bringing together firsthand leadership insight, consumer data, and macroeconomic dynamics. If you want to understand how global complexity, tariffs, and new consumer behaviors converge during the peak shopping season—and what effective supply chain stewardship looks like—this episode delivers actionable intelligence with a dash of holiday spirit.

Explore the full episode for real-world examples, actionable strategies, and plenty of wit from industry veterans.