Supply Chain Now: The Buzz – Why U.S. Imports From China Are Plummeting — and What It Means for 2026

Episode Date: November 28, 2025
Hosts: Scott Luton and Allison Giddens

Episode Overview

This episode of "The Buzz" dives deep into the ongoing shifts in the supply chain world with a particular focus on the marked decline in U.S. imports from China, the implications of this trend for the broader logistics and supply chain industry, and what this could mean for business strategies and economic realities heading into 2026. The conversation, rich in industry anecdotes and actionable advice, also covers AI’s mixed promise in retail, top trends for 2026, macroeconomic impacts like inflation on Thanksgiving dinners, and breaking defense procurement reforms.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Industry News and the "With That Said" Newsletter

• Community & Talent Focus:
  The hosts shared insights from the 7th annual WISE Future Leaders Symposium, highlighting critical industry voices advocating for talent engagement and social responsibility in supply chain.
  • Michelle Livingston (Home Depot): Emphasized using supply chain expertise to address societal issues like human trafficking.
  • Jessica Gambier (Toyota Logistics): Encouraged the next generation to be curious and selective in employers, given declining graduation numbers and a tighter talent market.
    • “This next generation, they're in the catbird seat. So they really shouldn't settle.” – Allison (06:46)
  • Dr. Rod Thomas: Urged aspiring professionals to seek “sweaty palm moments,” pushing the value of risk-taking and stretching out of comfort zones.
    • “Growth requires... sweaty palm moments.” – Dr. Rod Thomas, paraphrased by Scott (04:54)

2. Meeting Madness and Productivity

• Meeting Overload:
  The hosts humorously discussed “meeting fatigue,” referencing data that unproductive meetings cost the U.S. economy $250 billion annually (09:17). Strategies like demanding agendas and embracing alternative communications (email, Slack, phone) were touted.
  • Kenya (SpaceX): Shared a powerful company rule—“If you don’t have any value to add to the meeting, don’t be in it.” (14:28)

3. Thanksgiving Lightning Round & Supply Chain Analogies

• Lively banter over Thanksgiving food traditions led to a memorable supply chain analogy:
  • Biggest dinner bottleneck? The turkey, by far—cited as the constraint around which the rest of the meal is planned. (13:45)

4. Headline Story: Plummeting U.S. Imports from China

• Data & Quotes:

  • U.S. Census Bureau: $18.4 billion drop in imports (August vs. July 2025).
  • Mario Cadero (Port of Long Beach): “You’re looking at the 16% decrease in Chinese imports...across the board.”
  • Main import declines: electronics, furniture, and toys.
  • Ken Adamo (DAT): Inventory front-loading due to tariffs means, “The traditional peak holiday shipping season looks virtually nonexistent this year.”
  • Kyle Henderson (Vizion): Called the current period a “structural goods recession,” not a temporary dip.
    • “When furniture imports collapse 33% and toy imports...barely rise 17%, that tells you retailers are betting on the weakest consumer season in years.” (16:54)

• Analysis:

  • Multiple variables at play—economic uncertainty, tariff avoidance, changing sourcing patterns (from China to countries like Malaysia).
  • The observed trend suggests new purchasing patterns are becoming entrenched. (19:22)

5. AI in Retail Supply Chains: Expectations vs. Reality

• MIT Study: 95% of organizations see “little to no return” from genAI investments. Challenges are “brittle workflows, lack of contextual learning, misalignment.” (21:48)
• Gartner: Only 10% of CEOs say they have a clear AI strategy; urges strategic vision, governance, and focus on ROI.
• Retail Examples: Walmart’s AI-driven success in demand prediction and inventory management, contrasted with industry-wide frustration.
• Key Takeaway: Setting the right expectations and understanding AI’s role—“Garbage in, garbage out.” Not all problems are best solved by AI.
  • “If you expected to download an application and it do the work of 10 people, like, what are we doing here?” – Allison (22:41)

6. Top Supply Chain Trends for 2026 (by MHI)

• Trends:

  1. Workforce and talent gap
  2. AI and real-time data
  3. Automation/emerging tech
  4. Geopolitical shifts, trade, tariffs
  5. Uncertainty, inflation, rising costs
  6. Cybersecurity/data security
  7. E-commerce/inventory pressure
  8. Agility & resiliency
  9. Environmental sustainability

• Host Commentary:

  • Returns is a notable omission.
  • AI as a ‘super-trend’—moves from competitive advantage to “table stakes.”
  • “Uncertainty is not scalable. Like, for a small business, uncertainty is terrifying.” – Allison (30:05)

Related: Rising Cargo Theft

• 1,500% increase since 2021, costing $15–$35 billion annually.
  Allison’s real-world solution: Using inexpensive trackers (Tile, AirTags) for shipments, empowering manufacturers. (32:26)

7. Pentagon’s Sourcing Transformation: Acquisition Reform

• Context:
  The White House and Pentagon are rolling out major organizational changes to speed up military procurement.
• Quote:
  • Pete Hegseth (Sec. of Defense): “An 85% solution in the hands of our armed forces today is infinitely better than an unachievable 100% solution endlessly...awaiting additional technological development.”
• Allison’s Take: Enthusiasm for faster processes, but skepticism about possible added bureaucracy. Manufacturers want to deliver quickly—it’s not industry causing delays. (36:11)
  • “When everything’s a priority, nothing’s a priority...” – Allison (40:25)

8. Thanksgiving Economics: Food Price Trends

• AFBF Data:

  • Turkey dinner for 10: Down 5% from last year, turkey alone down 16%, but sweet potatoes up 37%, veggie trays up 61%.
  • Cheapest meal in the South ($50), priciest in the West ($61).

• Hosts’ Perspective:

  • “Boil the frog” analogy: Prices feel down compared to recent spikes, but remain up compared to pre-pandemic levels.
  • “...average of $55.18 for 10 people, that sounds really low.” – Scott (45:03)
  • Anecdote: $75 for a side dish at a local restaurant (45:31).

• Fun Fact:
  The invention of the microwave turkey dinner was due to an overestimation of turkey demand—an early supply chain planning error! (46:27)

9. Bold Predictions for 2026

• Allison:
  Small manufacturers will have greater leverage, able to say no to “the big guys” and command better prices. Agility will trump scale in certain areas.
• Scott:
  Predicts greater rethinking of tariff strategies, hopefully moving toward more stable, less disruptive trade policy.

10. Dave Krache Foundation Spotlight

• Mission:
  A volunteer organization led by Allison providing local kids with access to organized sports, particularly those facing family hardships.
  • Over 2,000 children helped; 99.9% of donations go directly to families.
  • Learn more and support: DaveKrache.com
  • “There are kids that need you.” – Allison (51:21)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Talent’s New Power:
  “This next generation...they’re in the catbird seat. So they really shouldn’t settle.”
  — Allison (06:46)

• On Meetings:
  “If you don’t have any value to add to the meeting, don’t be in it.”
  — Kenya (SpaceX), via chat (14:28)

• On Imports from China:
  “When furniture imports collapse 33% and toy imports...barely rise 17%, that tells you retailers are betting on the weakest consumer season in years.”
  — Kyle Henderson (17:00)

• On AI Frustration:
  “If you expected to download an application and it do the work of 10 people, like, what are we doing here?”
  — Allison (22:41)

• On Uncertainty:
  “Uncertainty is not scalable. Like, for a small business, uncertainty is terrifying.”
  — Allison (30:05)

• On Defense Procurement:
  “An 85% solution...today is infinitely better than an unachievable...100% solution endlessly...awaiting additional technological development.”
  — Pete Hegseth, paraphrased (35:29)

• On Innovation and Tracking:
  “We put a little tile tracker in the box...when large freight companies say we don’t know where your product is, we can say we do.”
  — Allison (33:13)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:00 – Show introduction, newsletter recap, WISE Symposium
• 05:25 – Talent insights; population and workforce trends
• 09:17 – Meeting overload and productivity hacks
• 12:21 – Thanksgiving “Lightning Round” and supply chain analogies
• 15:00 – Main story: U.S. import data and declining trades with China
• 21:48 – AI in retail supply chains and industry frustrations
• 27:56 – Top 2026 supply chain trends and rising cargo theft
• 32:26 – Cargo security and creative tracking solutions
• 34:13 – Pentagon’s sourcing transformation
• 42:26 – Thanksgiving price trends and inflation context
• 48:00 – Bold predictions for manufacturing and supply chain in 2026
• 50:05 – Dave Krache Foundation Feature
• 52:39 – Wrapping up and key takeaways

Tone & Style

The discussion is engaging, light-hearted yet substantive, packed with industry expertise, relatable stories, witty banter, and a spirit of camaraderie and community.

Final Takeaways

This episode exemplifies why Supply Chain Now is a valued resource for industry professionals—balancing data-driven analysis with real-world experiences, predictions, and inspirational stories. Listeners walk away with a deeper understanding of the forces shaping global supply chains and actionable advice for navigating uncertainty—including being selective in career moves, optimizing meetings, embracing AI pragmatically, and tracking evolving trade flows.

“Take one thing you heard…put it into practice. Deeds, not words—which is how we’re going to keep transforming global supply chain.”
— Scott (53:12)