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Akhilesh Agrawal
It's a question of when, not if eventually this technology will get developed. So when this happens, the stakes are like, is a company going to be bankrupt because they didn't have protection? Right. So it's not a roadmap that you start creating when the technology arrives. It's a roadmap that you start creating today in preparation for that day when the technology is available.
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Scott Lewton
Hey, good morning, good afternoon, good evening wherever you may be. Scott Lewton with you here on Supply Chain now. Welcome to today's show folks. We got a great conversation, teed up, a fantastic one as we sit down with a couple of business leaders who are exploring one of the most intriguing and misunderstood topics shaping, I would say the now of supply chain, but certainly the future of supply chain and that's quantum computing. You're going to really appreciate their perspective as we unpack why quantum computing may be both overhyped and underestimated and what that really means for supply chain leaders here today. Plus, we're going to be exploring how quantum could unlock new levels of visibility and innovation across complex multi tier supply chain ecosystems. We're going to be discussing some of the real near term risks as well as emerging capabilities. And perhaps most importantly, we're going to be suggesting the practical steps that leaders should take over the next 12 to 24 months to prepare for this new quantum era that is fast approaching all of that and much, much more. So folks, stick around for a great conversation that is certainly going to offer up tons of actual insights by the truckload. So let's welcome in our two wonderful guests joining us today starting with Akhilesh Agrawal, President P2P Solutions and Technology with Apex Analytics. Now Akhilesh leads the Apex Analytics Solutions practice responsible for Apex Portal industry is only 100% touchless solution for global supplier information management and working capital capital rather optimization. He leads the development of new client focused software innovations guided by the regular trend analyses he conducts to ensure that Apex Portal delivers real world efficiency and productivity benefits. He also oversees pre sales, product management, project planning and reviews, risk mitigation and the delivery of seamless solutions to large global clients across country borders across the world. He's got an extensive background in product design, execution and accounts payable, accounts receivable and related areas. All that much, much more including past leadership roles for I COR and Adidia International AES. How you doing today?
Akhilesh Agrawal
Very good, Scott. Thank you for the introduction.
Scott Lewton
You bet. They could have gone on 10 more minutes. You've done a lot of things in your your career but excited to talk with you here today. And you're joined by a Wonderful colleague, William McNeil, Vice President, Market Intelligence, also with Apex Analytics. Now William is, as I mentioned, Vice president of Market Intelligence at Apex analytics where he leads analyst relations and public relations and develops thought leadership on supplier risk management, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies just like quantum computing. Prior to joining Apex analytics or will spent more than 17 years as a research analyst at Gartner covering supplier risk management, global trade compliance and sourcing and procurement. He brings deep industry expertise and a forward looking perspective to helping organizations navigate an increasingly complex and technology driven supply chain landscape. William, how you doing today?
Akhilesh Agrawal
Great.
William McNeil
Thanks for having me. This is going to be fun.
Scott Lewton
It is. Man, between you and Oculus, you are quite the one two punch. So as I shared in the green room pre show I I'm going to try to keep up with y'. All. Y' all doing some big things industry. I can't wait to learn from you both here today on Supply chain now. So let's do this. We kind of know who we're we're talking with here today. We got a great topic we're going to dive deep into. Quantum computing. An intriguing topic for sure. But first a fun warmup question. And Aesh realized in the pre show that you and I have quite a bit in common. You love Sapphire. I love Sapphire. You're smart enough to understand it. I'm almost slow enough to be mesmerized, to get confounded by it.
Akhilesh Agrawal
Maybe you're smart enough to experience it.
Scott Lewton
Ah, I like that. Thank you. I can so Star wars and Star Trek to your favorites. Let me ask you two part question. Which one? If you had to sit down and binge on one or the other, which one would it be? And what is one of your favorite characters that might not be as, as appreciated in the larger sense? What comes to mind?
Akhilesh Agrawal
Yeah, so I'll watch the first Generation any day because that's where I started with. The entire storyline is of hope and it's less of tech back in the day. I mean it came out in the late 60s, et cetera. But it's more about the storyline and what's possible in the future and whoever was writing it back back in the day, I mean kudos to them because I mean just thinking about the possibilities is enormous. So I love that the one person I'm more Interested in, I mean, Spock and, you know, Captain, everyone knows, but what about Scotty, you know, and the engineering team? And ultimately every single one of those episodes cannot survive without the engineering team. So. Spoken less of, but big fan of. Of Sky.
Scott Lewton
Oculus. I love that. I love. I love anything these days that centers on hope, practical hope, because I think humanity needs lots of that, given all that we've gone through, going, I mean, going even to, you know, a couple years ago with the pandemic, for sure. And if you're navigating through the universe and exploring unforeseen places with unforeseen races, you name it technologies, you better have a great engineer that gives it all he. All he got is in that famous Scotty ism. Lots of good stuff. I promise not nerd out too much on Star wars and Star Trek here today. But, William, you've got a different high tech hobby that you actively put your hands on. You love to build your own computers. Tell me more.
William McNeil
Yeah, it started probably about 20 years ago when I wanted to have a little bit more control about the specs that were included in a personal computer for video games. So I obviously researched things like video graphics cards and RAM and solid state drives and put together, like, what I thought was the perfect combination to get my games to run optimally.
Scott Lewton
So. Okay, I gotta ask you the perfect follow up. I'm a big John Madden guy my whole life, right. We had a whole league set up in its earliest days. What is one of your favorite video games of all time, William?
William McNeil
The Civilization series. I'm big into the grand strategy game, so I have bought all seven iterations, plus the spin offs like Beyond Earth.
Scott Lewton
William, that is a great game. I have got a copy on the emulator on my laptop. I play. I think it's Civilization 2 still. And that came out in the late 90s.
William McNeil
Yeah, that was a good one.
Scott Lewton
It's a good game.
Akhilesh Agrawal
Yeah.
Scott Lewton
All right, so. All right, we're gonna. We gotta get talking supply chain and quantum computing, but I love what y' all bring to the table and I look, look forward to learning again from you both here today, so. So let's do this. I shared your backgrounds a bit, a couple of bullet points. Y' all done a lot in your careers, but I want to prompt each of y' all to share a little bit more, especially maybe with what our audience, especially for today's conversation, should appreciate, maybe about your professional journey, AKA let's just start with you. Tell us a little more about your background.
Akhilesh Agrawal
Yeah, so I started working right out of high school after passing that. Didn't go to college but my first 10 years of the career was developing cold case management software, paperless imaging software for the state of Texas. Did that run for 10 years? And then I pivoted my career into accounts receivables. So I joined a company, Receivable Management Services based out of Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. Worked there for almost three years and then I core another company which was having expertise in accounts receivable but on the B2C side they acquired RMS. So I became part of the I Corps corporate firm and then I ended up working there till end of 2011 and in 2012 that's when I joined the Apex Analytics. Right. So it's been quite a journey from India to New York and to Greensboro
Scott Lewton
and I'm trying to come up with a Star wars or Star Trek analogy there, but it's been amazing how y' all been moving at light speed ever since you joined. Apixel analytics really has been on the move. William, same question. I shared some of your bio earlier, but what else would you really have folks know?
William McNeil
Well, as a gartner analyst of 17 years, I have more than 5,000 interactions with both the users and buyers of technology and providers and so a little of that has to rub off at some point. You can't help it. But one of the things I did notice was everything needs to be put into context. So whenever, even when we talk about Quantum today, it's not going to be a one size fits all approach. I'm not just going to say 100% of companies should do this. It's it's going to have a lot to do with what your current situation looks like and what your risk appetite looks like. And that's something that I learned as an analyst.
Scott Lewton
William, I love that we don't get enough context, especially in this ever faster moving world. So we're kindred spirits there for sure. And you know what? I bet a lot of folks can appreciate context around especially topics like quantum computing that the masses are still trying to understand where it stands today and the impact for what's in the not so distant future. So folks, if all that appeals to you, you're in the right place here today. Aklesh, I want to do one more thing. I know lots of folks know Apex analytics and the successful journey I've been on, but for the handful of folks out there that the organization may be new to, in a nutshell, what does the company do?
Akhilesh Agrawal
In a nutshell, let's start with our why Our why statement is improve the lives of our employees, customers and business partners. Now how we improve lives is what we do. Apex delivers an enterprise risk resolution system which is world class. How we define it is think about touchless onboarding of suppliers, auto remediating, remediation of risk once it's detected through our AI and other quantum systems, and then profit recovery and the outcomes. Right. Protecting the spend. When I talk about protecting the spend, we protect more than $10 trillion of spend on an annual basis. And where we this $10 trillion of spend to audit is the world's largest company. So think about the Fortune 400 companies are out of the Fortune thousand. So they are Apex clients. Right. And we service them. And as we service them, I talked about the trillion dollars in spend. But also think about 250 million golden records, supplier records that Apex has. And we have been in business since over 35 years. So in that time span we have gathered a lot of data and this data is validated and enriched and cleansed on, on 24, 7 basis. So, so that's what we do and, and how we do it.
Scott Lewton
Let me see if I capture numbers. Right, and William, I'll get your comment here as well. But 35 years in business for over 400 companies, 250 million records and then $10 trillion and spend is what you're protecting, managing, optimized, you name it. William, what else would you add to that?
William McNeil
Akhilesh hinted at it a little bit with the data.
Akhilesh Agrawal
Right.
William McNeil
And so this data foundation that we have, both in terms of the entity golden records and the transactions are the foundation of our systems. And it will even apply to some of the things that we talk about with Quantum today.
Scott Lewton
Outstanding. Okay, I'm gonna try to keep up with y'.
William McNeil
All.
Scott Lewton
Okay, I'm gonna try to keep up with y'.
Akhilesh Agrawal
All.
Scott Lewton
I want to shift gears to this intriguing white paper that y' all recently co authored and have pushed out in the industry. And I was reading through this earlier today, I might need y' all to hold my hand here. The quantum paradox separating hype from reality for supply chain leaders. But I'm kidding aside, folks out there watching or listening, it's really written from a perspective that more operational folks like me can really follow along and understand. That's a very valuable component here. You point out that at its core, the paradox you're referencing that the industry is presented with. Akhilesh and William, is this quote. Quantum computing may post significant future disruption. At the same moment, many organizations believe it requires no immediate attention. End Quote. So let's do this. Let's start with our why first when it comes to the white paper itself. And while y' all invested and shared your perspective and research with the market, what prompted you both and the company of course, Apex analytics, to highlight that looming impact of quantum computing in supply chains right at this moment? Akhilesh.
Akhilesh Agrawal
Yeah, so that's a great question, Scott. And the way it starts is, is with us. So when you think about the supply chain, I Talked about the 400 companies, which are 1400 largest companies in the world, right? From the Fortune Thousand. So when we are servicing customers like that, and those customers are spread globally, their operations, their supply chain is spread globally. Apex analytics is one of those suppliers in the mix, right? But what are we servicing? We are servicing audit of $10 trillion in spend. And we are assigned the task to protect it through our solutions and services. So when we are tasked with an amount like $10 trillion and 250 million golden records, and those golden records have sensitive data like tax IDs and bank account numbers and so on and so forth, just imagine what kind of data trove that we have and the responsibilities upon us to protect it on behalf of our clients. Because we are a service provider, right? We provide both audit as well as software solutions as a service. So it starts with that. It's just being responsible as a company to protect that information. Right? Now when we exchange this information with our clients, it goes through the Internet as an example. And today we believe, and through our testing and so on and so forth, we know that we are secure today, right? So as we exchange data, it's encrypted with the world class encryption technologies and we are protecting that data flow from one place to another. But this encryption technology which is commonly used today, will not be sufficient in the near future, right? And when I call the near future, it's not like 20 years away, it's like five years away. The reason to start this discussion in the white paper and so on and invest in this is because we have an obligation to protect and a moral responsibility to protect now because we saw this coming, we thought it is a great idea to share this knowledge with the world so that as an industry we do better. And as an industry, we not only improve lives of our employees, but customers and business partners in general. We do go to humanity, right? So that, that was the, the why behind it. I mean, we can discuss the details, but that's the intention.
Scott Lewton
Akles. I love that. William. I'll see if I can capture some of the main themes there. I love where you finished. The good of industry. Right. Whether you're an Apex analytics customer or not, this strengthens industry, of course, a sense of urgency related to the ever fastly evolving risk. Right. And of course the responsibility that leaders across industry, service providers and otherwise own to take action. Especially when risk and our blind spots are so full, unfortunately. William, what else would you add to the why here?
William McNeil
I think our clients want to know that we're thinking about these things and protecting them into the future.
Scott Lewton
Right.
William McNeil
We don't want to just sit here and wait reactively for them to ask us these questions. We want to proactively push that viewpoint into the market and say we're thinking about these things, we're protecting your data. We've already thought about this because I think what's going to happen is too many companies are going to wait until these mandates sort of hit in like 2030 and beyond. Right. And then look at it and then it's too late. Because what we found is anytime a company goes through this type of exercise where they're really reviewing the type of cryptographic algorithms that they use, they're looking at their security posture. It takes them up to five years to make these major changes. So if you start in 2030, it's already too late. That's why we're starting now.
Scott Lewton
William, quick follow up question. Maybe to you both really quick, and this may not be a perfect comparison, but kind of what you're just sharing prompted it for me. We know folks, right now, unfortunately some folks that are listing or watching us right now, their organizations are kind of, they haven't embraced even the golden age of artificial intelligence yet. Right. But what I'm gathering here from the white paper and from some of your earlier perspective is the risk of not acting sooner related as it relates to quantum computing may be even bigger than being a laggard when it comes to AI. Is that a. Agree. Disagree. William, we could start with you. Is that your thoughts there?
William McNeil
I will say that if quantum computing comes to fruition, absolutely agree. Because it's going to just replace every, every type of computing and model that we have today. So yes, if it were to happen, absolutely. But what I'd like to focus a little more on is by preparing for quantum now there's some real world improvements you can get even if we never reach that nirvana of quantum computing. And we're going to talk a little bit about that today in terms of just it, hygiene, data hygiene. So going through this exercise today is going to yield Results, no matter what happens.
Scott Lewton
I love that. And we're, we are going to talk about that stuff. But Oculus really quick. Is there bigger pain associated with waiting on and not engaging with quantum computing? Bigger than companies not engaging and acting on the AI imperative? Your quick thoughts?
Akhilesh Agrawal
Yeah, absolutely. And how I want to describe that scenario is with an example, right? So a few years ago, nobody knew Chat GPD as an example, right? And one fine day, everyone wakes up and it's a news flash thing. There's something called an LLM and there is ChatGPT, and it can do so many stuff with AI, right? No harm done. I wake up, I have a great news, and now the scenario is no harm done, but let's see how it can benefit us and let's have a roadmap and let's start working towards it now, few years later, let's say five years from now, let's paint another picture. Wake up in the morning and we see the news, and we see it in the news that there's something called a quantum computer, right? Which exists even today. There's a lot of research going on, but sometime in the future, that quantum computer is able to decrypt every single data packet that we encrypt today, right? And the news is that every single diplomatic cable ever sent by any country on the planet has been decrypted. Who said what to whom, right?
Scott Lewton
Wow.
Akhilesh Agrawal
Every single banking transaction or payment or remittance going out has been decrypted and my credentials are stolen and people have access to my bank account and maybe they took the money out and my bank account is $0, no bueno, right? So the stakes are too high when this happens, right? It's a question of when, not if, eventually this technology will get developed. So when this happens, the stakes are like, is a company going to be bankrupt because they didn't have protection? Right? So it's not a roadmap that you start creating when the technology arrives. It's a roadmap that you start creating today in preparation for that day when the technology is available.
Scott Lewton
That's a powerful anecdote. And that morning, on that latter part of that analogy, when you wake up five years from now is exciting and terrifying all at once. So which, which is why we need to be having these conversations. It's also a great segue, right? Because in the white paper and in our conversations here, you both describe quantum as both overhyped and underestimated. Right? That kind of goes to heart of the paradox, Aklesh. Given that paradox I hope I'm using that word right because. But what does that mean for supply chain leaders? Akhilesh?
Akhilesh Agrawal
Yeah, sure. So the paradox is like Will was sending if and when it happens. Right. So in the short term, if I'm an ordinary procurement person or an IT leader, I'm seeing the industry out there, I'm seeing the technology out there and there is no quantum computing which is realistic in day to day world. So from that perspective it's the danger is not sensed, the danger is not acknowledged by people today. So that's one part of it. But people also think that they are prepared for it in the future already. So when the time comes, the IT experts today think that all the encryption channels or methods and cryptography they are using that will still protect them in the future. So it's basically discarding the danger and acknowledging that there is no danger at the same time. Right. And we are already prepared. Right. And neither of them is true. Because what will happen is like I said, the roadmap needs to start today. And large corporations, especially large corporations, for a startup it's actually easier. But for very large corporations the roadmap starts today. And then you go into a deep dive, first in a discovery mode saying what equipment, what software am I using today? Which exchanges information that needs to be protected. Right. And then once we have an inventory of those items, then we start creating a plan to remediate those things and protect against post quantum cryptography. Right? This is not going to happen in a month of remediation cycle. This is going to take years of planning. And I've been to CISO conferences in the past one in Paris recently and it was discussed at the highest levels at private equity investor conferences and other large companies where there's a consensus developing in the industry that every single contract which is going to be signed in the near future will pass on a liability and a responsibility of owning the post quantum cryptography scenario and the supplier is going to own it. So if there is an incident which leads to a decryption or loss of data or data leaks, then the supplier will own that responsibility. Right? So now think about the supply chain. If every single supply contract has this provision down the supply chain, then the entire industry is impacted and every one of those suppliers in the entire chain needs to be protected against this liability in future. So that's why we got to prepare now.
Scott Lewton
All right, really quick, before I get away and William, folks, write down that PQC because you're going to hear a lot more about that post quantum cryptography because that goes a big part to the heart of while this matters, who owns what and the risk and liability there, and a lot more. William, Overhyped, underestimated. What does it mean? What else would you add for supply chain leaders out there?
William McNeil
Yeah, when I was thinking about the paradox, I was thinking about the there is a non zero chance quantum computing may never happen, and yet it's already here today. So how can both things be true? And that's what we're talking about with quantum today, where things are in multiple states at the same time. So if I say to one person, okay, quantum computers, they might not actually manifest themselves, they might be too expensive, they might just be too error prone or what have you, and yet I'm recommending you take steps today to address it. That's the paradox. And one of the reasons I think that happens is people conflate two different topics. One is the use of quantum computing and the other are cryptographic standards that are currently in place today. And that's really a bit more what I'm talking about when I say you need to take steps today to Akhilesh's point. So for example, you have bodies like NIST and ISO and they're saying you need to use these new algorithms in place, like by 2030, we're not going to allow some of these to be in place today. And that's regardless of whether these quantum computers manifest themselves. So to me, that's kind of what I was thinking with the paradox.
Scott Lewton
That's a great point to call out. Because regardless of where, if I'm hearing you correctly, and correct me if I'm wrong, William, regardless of where, how quickly quantum computing gets here and how prevalent and how widely adopted the cryptography risk remains. And maybe an additional thought there maybe is if it's not quantum, it might be something else that the current protocols aren't. Aren't good enough.
Akhilesh Agrawal
You got it.
William McNeil
Exactly.
Scott Lewton
Okay.
Akhilesh Agrawal
Yep.
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Scott Lewton
All right, we're trying here. Good stuff, William. And Oculus. I really appreciate Yalls perspective and the altitude that you're attacking this conversation from. So let's talk about something that we, all three of us have been talking about, I bet for years and years. That's visibility, Right. Visibility has been a mantra for seems like decades in global supply chain, but for good reason. Right. And while I would say we have still we have made some, some great progress, right? Some good heavy lifting, no doubt about it, but. And some would argue that visibility is quickly becoming table stakes. However, the challenge that still persists, especially in deep ecosystems is this. All the sub tier suppliers, right? That's where the visibility really, our spotlight runs out of batteries, runs out of juice. But you both see, I think the potential for quantum computing to really put that spotlight on with nuclear power, right. And shine a bright so we can really see down deep and really understand better understand and better see our risks than where things stand today. Right. Because all those gains, we still have a lot more heavy lifting to do. Akhilesh, would you touch on that as it relates to the potential that quantum computing brings to the table?
Akhilesh Agrawal
Yeah. So think about it like this, right? The evolution of computers. So it started with writing code so that it's just fast compute, right? So instead of doing it by hand, we are making computers do the lengthy work. Then came something called predictive analytics and machine learning where we could create algorithms to try and predict the future and we could create algorithms to learn. And that was the first evolution of AI, the machine learning. So through machine learning, the computer learns of scenarios and then helps execute the resolution to them in future. Right. So at Apex, we have been using AI long before AI was cool, right? So AI became cool with the LLMs which was recently introduced. And what LLMs did was it's large language models. It was earlier created to process large amounts of text information and then we now have video models and images and so on and so forth. But essentially it was large amounts of unstructured text and data. So the machine was able to learn from all that vast amounts of knowledge. And now if I ask a question or ask it to make a decision or give me a recommendation, it's able to process that information, learn from it and give me a recommendation. So that's where we are now. We can use all of these technologies and it's available in our risk solutions at Apex, where we make use of all available technologies today to evaluate what is the end tier supply chain risk. So first of all, with that 250 million golden records that we have, we know what the data looks like and we have cleansed it and validated it. That's step one. So it all starts with good data. And then we say that, okay, because we have good data. Let's take advantage of that and see what is my supply chain risk for my tier one supplier and then down the chain based on the products and services provided by each tier. Right. So we can do a lot of predictions, use AI to find out where potential risks are today. Right. But risk is something that changes every single day, and risk is changing as we speak right now. Right. There's also a concept where the same supplier with the same data is a risk to somebody and it's not a risk to somebody. And both can be true, which is the principles of quantum computing. You can be in a state of 0 and a state of 1 and both at the same time. So it fits perfectly in evaluating supply chain risk, because the same supplier is a risk and not a risk at the same time. So what quantum computers are going to help us with is massive amounts of computing and prediction over and above what AI is able to do today. Right. Just sheer amount of computing. And it's able to use those qubits to predict those risks which are applicable to me. So it's more accurate risk reporting. It's more real time risk reporting. There's a concept called Monte Carlo. Right. So think about running that Monte Carlo prediction scenarios, what if scenarios in real time every day. Right. And the applicability matters because what's risk to somebody else is not risk to me, and vice versa. So that's where quantum computers are going to help us with and it's actually going to enhance AI as we know it. Right. So that's another factor. People consider AI and quantum as two different technologies, but they're going to converge very soon in future.
Scott Lewton
Okay. All right. So William, what else would you add? So Aklesh really talked about several things there, especially the sheer injection of power to take visibility and modeling and, and scenario plan, all that stuff to the, you know, next 10 degrees maybe. What else would you add to that, William? Especially as it relates to getting rid of the murkiness that can be found in these really big supply chain ecosystems.
William McNeil
Yeah, sure. So when Aklesh was talking about a supplier being a risk at the same time as not being a risk. I'm a big fan of the Big Bang theory and they talk about Schrodinger's Cat quite a bit. So I called that Schrodinger's supplier and we included that and we wrote a whole blog on that. So how can a supplier be both a risk and not a risk at the same time? And I think Aklesh really nailed it. When we talk about quantum computing in terms of end tier visibility, can it help you discover new suppliers? Well, yeah, sure, absolutely. But most of the power is actually going to be on the modeling more than the discovery, in my opinion. Right. So if, for example, you say, okay, I want to run a particular risk model against this subset of my suppliers with quantum computing, you might be able to say, I'll just run all models, all scenarios at the same time. It's only going to take 12 minutes. Right. So that's incredibly powerful because being notified of a risk event isn't really that insightful. It's what's the impact to your supply chain? Does it affect revenue? Does it affect a customer SLA that you have in place? So to be able to run all those models at the same time and get that view into the impact, that's the power. Because with the discovery part, and this is where my interactions at Gartner really came into play, you could ask a tier one supplier, for example, say, help me get visibility into the tier two suppliers. The tier one supplier can just say, no. They can just say, no, I'm not helping you do that. And so you're kind of stuck. And that's why we, we talk a lot about the data. So we have the 250 million golden entity records. Great start. We have the 10, 10 trillion in transactions. Great start. Like, quantum computing is still going to need a lot of that type of information to run this analysis. But it's. I agree with Akhilesh completely. It's really about the modeling and the analysis and the impact to give that customer the real value. Like, what is this risk event really mean to me?
Scott Lewton
Okay, I got a quick question, and I don't mean to be overly simplistic, but I think one big thing I'm picking up from you both is when you know we've got great technology today, right? Whether it's Apex analytics or other, other platforms out there that really help companies make better decisions and mitigate risk. But something that Aklesh said was risk is Everest living and breathing, right? I think he mentioned by day, but, but in some cases by the minute, right? And current technology is limited to a certain extent. But when we bring on quantum computing and this sheer. One thing I heard from both of y', all, the sheer computing power, and you inject that sheer computing power into even current or technology as it continues to develop, our ability to run faster and, and smarter is going to be leaps ahead where we are today. And all that sounds good and positive, but the flip side of that is bad actors have the same access to the same innovation. Which kind of goes back to William, your clarification earlier about regardless of quantum computing or not, we've got to take steps. We're going to touch on this earlier to protect said data said in cryptography, all the, all protect our organizations. Because whether it's computer quantum computing or not, we're gonna get the power from somewhere to fuel innovation at a speed that we're just getting used to where we are today, man. Next year, next six months. Is all that right? Am I tracking with y' all on what you're sharing? Akhilesh, does all that sound right?
Akhilesh Agrawal
It is, Scott. And another example I want to share is, so how does quantum computers work, right? So one of the requirements is, is near absolute zero temperatures, right? So when you hear that statement, the default reaction assumption is, well, good luck, because I'm not using a quantum computer as my laptop. It's not portable. And then because of those restrictions and limitations, it is not going to be a reality, right? Like it's not going to be in every corporate data center as an example, it's going to be limited to the world's largest governments in a way because they have the funding and the resources to manage it. But guess what? Whether it's Google or Microsoft or Amazon, etcetera, All these companies, IBM included, they're investing in quantum computing, right? So private companies are at, are in the race. The other aspect about quantum computers, especially when we talk about cloud computing today, is that you can rent a quantum computer. So I don't have to go and invest and buy a quantum computer and create a near absolute zero temperatures to operate it and have all the engineering resources to manage it. All of that can be managed by these cloud providers. All I have to do is pay them, and I can pay them based on the usage. I have not even a fixed fee. So what that means is not only companies like us can take advantage of it to do good, but the hackers and the dark web and all the people who are hurting the community, they can also rent these cloud computers, quantum computers, and take advantage of it to do the bad deeds, bad things. Now think about which governments could potentially encourage or discourage, right? So if you take the United States, the likelihood of it being used for good is going to be extremely high. If you take a country like North Korea, the likelihood that it's going to hurt the world is going to be higher, right? It's all about likelihood. So which country is going to facilitate the bad actors, and which countries are going to prevent them from doing harm is the key. So we talk about nuclear weapons today. Well, quantum is going to be the weapon of the future.
Scott Lewton
All right, so I'm going to ask you all both about near term risk and this new acronym that's new to me, hndl, in just a second. But William, really quick, he mentioned Quackus QC as quantum computing as a service, I think. William, is that a thing yet?
William McNeil
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you can take advantage of it today and sign up for pilot programs to run. You know, again, it's very experimental because of the limitations, other than the temperature of quantum computing is still very, very high. Error rates in calculations, and so they need to bring down those error rates before it becomes useful. We're already seeing this with AI, for example. So we were talking about quantum computing and AI, Right? So you can use AI, for example, to generate a fake invoice, and then you can take that fake invoice and email it to somebody. That's why platforms like ours, if I may just talk a little bit about our company, are so important, because we're going to run all kinds of validations on that transaction, right? So we're going to obviously do things like deepfake recognition technology, run it on the invoice itself just to see if it's fake. But we're also going to be running it against bank validations, tax ID validations. Right. Country of origin validations, there's all kinds of validations. So as long as you submit that through the portal, you're fine. It's when you go around these controls and these systems, you start to get into trouble. And we've seen crazy examples, right. I don't know if you saw the one where a finance manager was on a zoom call and his CFO authorized a $20 million payment to a supplier. All fake. All deep fakes. It was a fake Zoom call, fake avatars, fake everything. You can't go outside your IT controls and do things like that. That's where the real danger is.
Scott Lewton
Wow. Okay. I did not read about that. I'm going to be doing some Googling in a second. All right, so Akhilesh and William, I want to ask about, and we've touched on a little bit of this, but when it comes to near term risk. Right. It's not an either or, but I want to. What would you call that? Schrodinger.
William McNeil
Schrodinger. Supplier.
Scott Lewton
Okay. Optimization disruption or supplier data security. What's the bigger near term Risk. And let's make sure we touch on harvest now, decrypt later. But Akhilesh, your thoughts?
Akhilesh Agrawal
Yeah, the near term risk is like, how are we planning to, to tackle this in future, right? Do we have a roadmap? If you don't have a roadmap, it's near term risk. I talked about private equity investments, right? So think about if you're a startup, not even a large company, and you want PE investments in the near future and when this strategy gets adopted widely in the industry, saying are you quantum ready, are you quantum protected, et cetera, and these items become a checklist, then everybody's impacted. Well, whether the quantum risk is here today or not, if you want investments today, you'll need to comply with it. So it becomes a compliance requirement, right? So there are all these near term risks, whether it's financial risk or data risk and so on, so forth. William touched upon. Hey, nothing we do today is going to be wasteful because everything we plan towards being able to deal with the post quantum cryptography scenario is going to just help us today, whether it's cleansing of data or validating the data, et cetera. But now let's talk about harvest now and decrypt later, right? Because that's again a near term and a future risk. So the biggest problem plaguing the industry today, and I'm speaking from real life experience because of what we do at Apex, is business email compromise. And how does the business email gets compromised? 1 well, email itself gets sent across the Internet in decrypted fashion. So the channel is insecure to begin with. But what is even worse is my passwords and access to my emails getting compromised. Now think about quantum computers coming in and breaking into everyone's mailbox in node time. So now what happens is all of the controls, all the security controls I put today may not be relevant in future, right? Another example is I'm accessing a secure website or HTTPs today and I believe it is secure. I'm accessing my bank and I believe it is secure. And I'm using, let's say all those social media chat messaging platforms like whether it's telegram or WhatsApp or iMessage et cetera, and everyone claims they got end to end encryption. So it's secure, right? But the definition of secure changes in future because what I can do if I'm a bad actor today is I can put in a device in the network and I can just store all of the encrypted data which is transmitting through my network, right? Everything is encrypted. I cannot access the information. But let's just store it, let's archive it, right? So now let's say I archive five years of data in 20, 30, let's say a quantum computer comes out which can easily decrypt it. I rent one and then I go to my treasure trove of encrypted data and then I decrypt it all in one go, right? So that's the harvest now, which I'm storing today and decrypt later is when the technology is ready in future, less decrypted. A common example we would have seen in the movies and life in general is people talk about freezing, right? Cryogenic freezers, where people who are sick could be frozen. We don't have it today, but as a thought, so freeze people who are sick with incurable diseases. And maybe sometime, maybe 200 years in future, we have the tech to cure that disease. So take the person out of the freezer and cure the person. Same concept, same idea, right? I don't have the tech today, so let's just defer it to the future and handle it at that time.
Scott Lewton
All right, so folks, again, harvest now, decrypt later, write that down. And that adds to the why that you should follow some practical steps that William and Aklesh are going to offer in just a minute. William, what would you add to HNDL or some of the other near term or further term risks that Akhilesh touched on?
William McNeil
Yeah, I think Akhilesh nailed it. I agree with him on the encryption part of it is the immediate threat because there are other implications. So Akhilesh gave us the investment. Like if your private equity firm says you need to have these things in place or we're not going to give you funding, you might see similar requirements for business partners, right? Like I'm not going to sign a contract with you unless you can sort of prove you adhere to this. You have the cybersecurity rating platforms and standards bodies who will say you need to have this in place. And when we transact things on our supply chain network, if you don't have that in place, you know, you might start to lose business. The other one I just thought of insurance, right? You want to get cyber insurance. If you don't have these things in place, forget about it. Your policy is going to be 10 times what the other person's is going to be. So these are all immediate real world reasons for addressing this, this crypto, cryptographic algorithm part. And the other thing I was thinking about with the Data is you need to take sort of a risk based approach to your data as well. Now here at Apex, because it's our client's data, we treat it all with a high level of sensitivity, right? But for your own self, you might think certain things are very sensitive when they're not. So I'll give you an example. Your credit card number, if somebody steals that today and then goes down to the street and buys a pizza with it, yes, that's an immediate threat. But in five years from now, you're going to have a new expiration code on it. And so that number that's stolen with that expiration code today might not be valid in five years. So maybe that might not be the best example for all of our business listeners today. But think about what I'm really saying is take that approach to not all data is the same and you may want to start with a subset of your data. But again, here at Apex, because it's our client's data, we treat it all as highly sensitive.
Akhilesh Agrawal
And just to add to what William said, one example that comes to my mind is let's say I'm a large retailer and I have some preferred confidential pricing with my suppliers, right? And that pricing and that contract might last seven years, maybe 10 years. It's a long term contract, right? So now today it's encrypted. No one can see it, right? Let's take the secret of Coca Cola, right? It's probably lying somewhere in a secret cyber world. But what if quantum computers decrypt that, right? So the contracts with suppliers, the long term pricing agreements and arrangements, and the part numbers or everything in the supply chain, right? So when there is confidentiality involved, especially that's what matters. And if the confidentiality is long term, right? And that creates a risk today because, yes, I want to protect that risk long term.
William McNeil
Great example.
Scott Lewton
Those are some great examples. And you're making me hungry for pizza and a Coke. And really, y' all both were speaking to a question I was going to pose to y' all about where quantum intersects with ecosystems and contracts long lived data. And I don't want to be too redundant. And for the sake of time, I want to shift gears over to misconceptions, right? Because all of us, I'm sure, have lots of really big misconceptions when it comes to quantum readiness, right? It goes to the territory. So, Akles, I'm gonna circle back to you here. So what are the biggest couple of misconceptions you regular regularly see? Supply chain leaders have about Quantum readiness. What comes to mind?
Akhilesh Agrawal
Yes. The first one is it's a future problem. I don't have to deal with it today, so let's just not handle it. Kick the can down the road. Right. The risk is basically present tense, not future. Right. So that's one thing. Harvesting, we talked about it. Harvesting is happening now. Right. So it's not going to happen in future. It's happening right now. So got to deal with it. The regulatory direction is being set and there are going to be more and more compliance coming out to, to deal with. So you got to be ready with it. There's going to be an extreme amount of talent shortage. Think about it. So as people gain awareness, it's not like we have thousands of quantum ready resources available in the market today. So as people gear up to deal with this problem, there's going to be an acute shortage of resources to find who can understand the technology, who can understand the implications and help the procurement leaders help the IT leaders deal with it. Right. So when we think about suppliers, when we think about hiring people, we gotta be ready with talent shortages and we gotta be ready with supplier shortages. The same principle applies. Not all suppliers are going to be ready. So you only have limited suppliers who can comply with your mandate and therefore you want to buy from them. And the supply can only supply so much. Right. So there's going to be a, a supply chain risk. So those are some of the things that come to my mind.
Scott Lewton
Akhilesh, that's a great short list. William, what would you add to those misconceptions?
William McNeil
If I had to add something, I mean, basically I agree with Akalash, but I'm just thinking about it from a slightly different twist. And that would be by making assumptions, assuming that your current cryptographic library is even up to date right now. So when you kind of go through and do that assessment, you might find you are already using standards that have been disallowed for 10, 15 years. That's very, very common. And that's why I was saying even if you go through this exercise to look for your PQC algorithms, you're going to find that you could be using already disallowed algorithms. So it's about those assumptions. Another example that I had about assumptions was, and this is going back much further now, a company was doing sort of their IT inventory and they had, you know, whatever, 50 business applications and then they would look at the associated hardware and cryptography and everything, and they had this one application and they couldn't find where it was being Housed or stored. And they tried their darndest and it turned out it was being run off of a PC under somebody's desk in their South African office. So, like, these types of exercises are just going to reveal a lot about your current IT exposure, regardless of whether it's quantum related or not.
Scott Lewton
William, that's a great example. It reminds me of a couple years back, I think we all had a revelation in terms of municipal energy, power management, water management. Now there's some really old green screens, very non powerful systems that are still running those, those critical infrastructure systems for, for cities across the country. And that's a major, major risk that we've got to come to grips with. Kind of a little different, different vein than what the story.
William McNeil
Good example, though. Yeah, good example.
Scott Lewton
Yeah, it is, it is really quick, William. We're going to get y' all both to weigh in on steps we got to take. But I gotta ask you, right behind you, you've got a chalkboard with quantum paradox written on it. Is it, Is that a paradox on top of a paradox? Like a chalkboard's kind of a throwback. Quantum computing, of course, is, is so future. Is that a. Are you illustrating the paradox of paradoxes?
William McNeil
It wasn't intentional, but maybe it was subconscious. So which might also be, which might also be quantum related because there's research coming out to say that our consciousness is actually based on quantum mechanics. So.
Scott Lewton
Oh, what, man? Okay, we're gonna have to save that. I gotta study up for when y' all come back and we talk about that next time. Good stuff. All right, so all of this, it's been a very helpful discussion. I really appreciate how you both really brilliant technologists kind of bring, again, bring this at an altitude that really everyone can embrace and really start to understand the why we've got to act today. So we are in experimentation phase today, right, As y' all talk about in the white paper. And you're seeing real enterprise impact emerging, say three to six years. Right, Three to six years. What practical steps should leaders take today in the next 12, 24 months, right. Maybe today, over the next two years, perhaps Arkhilesh, what comes on?
Akhilesh Agrawal
Yeah, so the number one thing is create an inventory of what you have, whether it's IT systems, whether it's software solutions that you're using within the company list of your critical suppliers which impact your business. Right. And then see how your data looks like today. Right. To service all of those systems and solutions. Right? So one is, unless you observe it, you cannot fix it. Right? So first Observe it, what you have, know what are the gaps. Right. Create a list of gaps and tie to what is needed to be quantum ready in future. Right. And then once you have those gaps and create a roadmap to, let's say, fix your data, hire talent, right. Work with suppliers both on IT side and otherwise, to make sure your equipment that you're using is secure and can cope up with future requirements. And then on your supply chain, are your suppliers ready for it? Because as a company, think about it like this. If I need to roll it out in my company, I work for, it's one company. But if I need to deal with this with 500,000 suppliers that I do business with, that's a monumental task. Right. So I can still control and influence the company I work in. But influencing 500,000 supplier, that's a tall order.
Scott Lewton
Yes. It's going to take a lot more time, a lot more effort. And so you're saying, of course, the inventory you're going to take, looking at data, looking at gaps, making sure what we're trying to manage is visible. And I would think with your last comment, by extension, have these conversations with your supplier ecosystems. What do they see? You know, we're only as good as. We all know that Achilles heel, right, where any supply chain ecosystem is only as strong as the weakest supplier. William, same question. What steps should supply chain leaders take today over the next two years or so?
William McNeil
Well, when we think about the talent issue that Akhilesh brought up, think about updating your job descriptions, your job requirements, what type of candidates do you want to look at so IT and HR can get together to make sure that those profiles are updated? I mean, what could it hurt, right? Even if it's a nice to have you say, nice to have PQC experience, I don't really see the downside of adding that. For example, I would say look at your contracts. Right. Look at your contracts across a few different areas. So this is where procurement people and sourcing people might come into play. Do you want to add any type of language to your contractual obligations that for your suppliers. Right. Whether they're IT vendors. Right. Because we're going to use that term supplier a little broadly. Could be your IT provider there. I would think it's essential. I don't know why you wouldn't have it. But also with suppliers of like, you know, direct goods and goods, not for resale and indirect materials and things like that, even with them. And then this is where the context comes in a little bit. So we talked about the context of is your company risk adverse or risk tolerant. So if you are very risk tolerant or you even look at risk strategically, I would say model out some of the big hairy problems that you're trying to solve today and investigate some of these pilot programs that Aqualesh was referring to and maybe even just take advantage of one. I know that's very immature, but like this, again, it's going to marry to your risk profile. Like if you have that type of budget where you have this type of experimentation. So. Right. So a lot of companies dedicate a small percentage of their budget to just these types of experimental projects. If you have that, go for it. I don't see the downside of it. But I'm not going to recommend that for everybody. Like if you on tighter margins or you don't have that type of budget, I'm not going to say you should absolutely go out and do that tomorrow. So that's why the context is so important.
Scott Lewton
William, Love that. And very practical. Gosh, reviewing job descriptions, what additional knowledge and expertise can we get that we're already or already recruiting for some of these roles? Let's add PQC that doesn't roll off my tongue for some reason. I want to practice that. Let's add that to some of the right appropriate jobs. And then the second one you mentioned, gosh, revisiting those contracts because in many ways we're probably already revisiting them for other reasons. This is another lens to another way to scrutinize. And that's, that's a great tip. Both y' all offered a great tip and I would add one more because I've benefited, as I figured I would, by spending an hour and some change with you both. Folks. You got to reach out and connect with Akhilesh and William because you're going to be smarter and you're going to look at the world a little bit different and it's not all doom and gloom. Right. We're being very clear eyed about the challenges. But it's also really exciting to see what quantum computing may well pose for global supply chains and leaders and the wonderful human factor out there. So let's help make that really easy. Aklesh and William, Akhilesh, how can folks track you down, have a similar conversation and maybe even, who knows, start working with Apex Analytics.
Akhilesh Agrawal
Absolutely. The best way to reach us is through our website, Apex Analytics. It's a P E X A N A L Y T I x dot com. You can both find me and William on our website. You can Contact us through. Through that. That's the best way. And looking forward to connecting with some of you.
Scott Lewton
Outstanding. And William, if we want to track down that interesting blog, and I'm going to go do that Schrodinger's supplier, if I said that right, if they want to check out some of the stuff y' all write or connect with you, what's the best way?
William McNeil
We have a section on our website for these types of thought leading pieces and blogs and white papers. They can start with there. I am on LinkedIn. The only thing that I ask is if you could please include a note that maybe you watched or listened to this podcast so I can separate it out from the job recruiting offers that I'm getting and my paid consultancy survey taking LinkedIn messages. I would. I would appreciate that.
Scott Lewton
Yeah, that's a good call out.
Akhilesh Agrawal
William already has PQC in his resume, so.
Scott Lewton
Yeah. Well, folks, also, I really encourage you to check out the white paper, the Quantum Paradox separating hype from reality for supply chain leaders. I'm telling you, you check it out. It's really exciting times and times. We've got to take action to prepare for what's next. And that doesn't mean five years around the corner or five years down the road, but yeah, today. That's right, William. That's right. What a great conversation. I knew I was going to be smarter leaving it as I was coming in, and y' all did not disappoint. Want to thank you both. Akhilesh Agarwal, President, P2P Solutions and Technology with Apex Analytics. Akhilesh is a pleasure to connect with you.
Akhilesh Agrawal
Same here, Scott. Thank you so much.
Scott Lewton
You bet. And William McNeil, Vice President, Market Intelligence with Apex Analytics. Really enjoyed your perspective as well, William.
William McNeil
Oh, I appreciate it. This was a lot of fun. Thank you.
Scott Lewton
It was. And y' all really a very complimentary one, two punch. You got to take it on the road. Maybe we'll get the Rolling Stones open for y' all as we inform and make the world aware of quantum computing and much, much more. So we'll make that happen. How's that sound?
William McNeil
That sounds great.
Scott Lewton
Who's got. Who's got the Mick Jagger on speed dial? I don't have it, unfortunately, but we'll look into it.
William McNeil
I did start teaching myself guitar during COVID because I was so bored.
Scott Lewton
So I'm going to add that to my text message. The value prop to Mr. Jagger. We'll see if that helps. But William and. And Aklesh, great. Really enjoyed Yalls perspective here today. Folks, to the Supply Chain Now Global fam. Hopefully you enjoyed this unique episode and conversation as much as I did. I certainly did. I've got 18 pages of notes. I was trying to fast and furiously keep up with them here today, but you got homework, right? And there's lots of actual perspective. So pick one thing Akalesh or William shared, Right. And put it to use. Right? Share it with your team. I would suggest we we take their practical steps that we should act on right now. Let's take that to heart and do something with it. Right? Deeds, not words. That's what's going to move us all ahead. Right. And leave no one behind. With all that said, Scott Luton, challenging each of our listeners. Do good, give forward, be the change that's needed and we'll see next time right back here on Supply Chain Now. Thanks everybody.
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Supply Chain Now | March 25, 2026
Guests:
This episode spotlights one of the most pressing issues for the future—and now—of global supply chains: the looming impact of quantum computing. The discussion explores the paradox that quantum is at once “overhyped and underestimated,” unpacks the urgency for proactive planning, and offers step-by-step guidance for supply chain leaders on how to prepare for a quantum-ready future. Along the way, the conversation covers real-world risks, including encryption vulnerabilities and supplier data challenges, with candid, practical insights suited for both technology experts and business leaders.
“Quantum computing may pose significant future disruption at the same moment many organizations believe it requires no immediate attention.” — White Paper [12:30]
“It's not a roadmap that you start creating when the technology arrives. It's a roadmap that you start creating today in preparation for that day.” — Akhilesh [00:00, 20:18]
“We thought it is a great idea to share this knowledge with the world so that as an industry we do better.” — Akhilesh [15:40]
“Anytime a company goes through this type of exercise... it takes them up to five years to make these major changes. So if you start in 2030, it's already too late.” — William [16:45]
“The stakes are like, is a company going to be bankrupt because they didn’t have protection?” — Akhilesh [20:18] “If quantum computing comes to fruition... it’s going to just replace every type of computing and model that we have today.” — William [18:13]
“Let’s say five years from now...you wake up and the news is that every single diplomatic cable ever sent...has been decrypted.” — Akhilesh [19:08]
“It’s basically discarding the danger and acknowledging that there is no danger at the same time. And neither of them is true.” — Akhilesh [21:50]
“You need to use these new algorithms...and that’s regardless of whether these quantum computers manifest themselves.” — William [24:43]
“With quantum computing...you might be able to say, I'll just run all models, all scenarios at the same time. It's only going to take 12 minutes.” — William [32:23]
“The same supplier is a risk and not a risk at the same time. So what quantum computers are going to help us with is massive amounts of computing and prediction over and above what AI is able to do today.” — Akhilesh [28:11]
“If I'm a bad actor today... Let's just store all of the encrypted data...and then I decrypt it all in one go. So that's the harvest now...and decrypt later is when the technology is ready in future.” — Akhilesh [40:40]
“If the confidentiality is long-term...that creates a risk today because, yes, I want to protect that risk long-term.” — Akhilesh [46:32]
“You might find you are already using standards that have been disallowed for 10, 15 years.” — William [49:55]
On Quantum Urgency:
“It’s not a roadmap that you start creating when the technology arrives. It’s a roadmap that you start creating today in preparation for that day when the technology is available.”
— Akhilesh [00:00, 20:18]
On Real-World Impact:
“If quantum computing comes to fruition, absolutely agree... it’s going to just replace every type of computing and model that we have today.”
— William [18:13]
On HNDL Threat:
“If I'm a bad actor today...I can put in a device in the network and just store all of the encrypted data...and then...I go to my treasure trove...and then I decrypt it all in one go.”
— Akhilesh [40:38]
On Supplier Ecosystems:
“If every single supply contract has this provision down the supply chain, then the entire industry is impacted and every one of those suppliers in the entire chain needs to be protected against this liability in future.”
— Akhilesh [23:24]
On Quantum Computing as a Service (QCaaS):
“You can rent a quantum computer...so not only companies like us can take advantage to do good, but the hackers...can also rent these cloud computers… it’s going to be the weapon of the future.”
— Akhilesh [35:55]
On Modeling Power:
“With quantum, you might be able to say, I'll just run all models...at the same time. It’s only going to take 12 minutes.”
— William [32:23]
Recommended Resources:
Connect With the Speakers:
Memorable Sign-off:
“It’s not all doom and gloom...It’s also really exciting to see what quantum computing may well pose for global supply chains. Pick one thing today—and put it to use. Deeds, not words. That’s what’s going to move us all ahead.” — Scott Lewton [57:00–59:00]
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