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Pacific spot rates are holding flat while futures signal the peak may already be over, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd just made a move that could mark the beginning of a Red Sea normalization after two and a half years of disruption.

In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:

Why Asia-USWC rates are flatlining around $5,200 while the futures curve still points sharply lower, and what that means for the rest of July
The Gemini alliance's AE15 service switching back to Suez routing and what it signals about carrier confidence in Red Sea stability
Panama Canal draft restrictions tightening through August as El Niño risk grows, and what history says about the ceiling on disruption
Maersk's upward earnings revision and why it says more about Maersk's earlier pessimism than the overall market
USMCA uncertainty and what a US pullback could mean for deeply intertwined North American supply chains
EU shipping emissions data: container vessels down 6.7% per TEU year over year, even as total emissions remain elevated versus 2023 due to Red Sea rerouting

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