In this special crossover episode with Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he’s bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy!

Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:26) Hawkish FOMC Conference

(06:03) Immigration Impact

(09:32) 2025 Surprises

(12:16) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs

(14:43) What Is The Fed Thinking?

(20:07) Peak Hawkishness

(21:41) Long-Term Rates

(23:07) SEP As A Psychological Tool

(25:16) Ads

(26:41) Fed Surveys & Politics

(28:29) The Neutral Rate

(30:27) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness

(32:11) Reverse Repo

(37:52) Treasury Coupon Issuance

(39:38) Equities & The Dollar

(43:15) Gold & Crypto

(45:07) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation

(49:42) Main Takeaways

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On the Margin: This Is Peak Hawkishness From The Fed | Joseph Wang