In this special crossover episode with Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he’s bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:26) Hawkish FOMC Conference

(06:03) Immigration Impact

(09:32) 2025 Surprises

(12:16) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs

(14:43) What Is The Fed Thinking?

(20:07) Peak Hawkishness

(21:41) Long-Term Rates

(23:07) SEP As A Psychological Tool

(25:16) Ads

(26:41) Fed Surveys & Politics

(28:29) The Neutral Rate

(30:27) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness

(32:11) Reverse Repo

(37:52) Treasury Coupon Issuance

(39:38) Equities & The Dollar

(43:15) Gold & Crypto

(45:07) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation

(49:42) Main Takeaways

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.