T-Minus Space Daily: China Says It’ll Land Humans on the Moon by 2030

Date: October 30, 2025
Host: Maria Varmazas, N2K Networks

Overview

This episode of T-Minus Space Daily centers on China’s ambitious plan to land astronauts on the Moon by 2030, exploring the current trajectory of Chinese space efforts, significant global developments in the space sector, and Europe’s struggle to define its space ambitions. The episode features expert insights from Greg Gillinger of Integrity ISR (space intelligence and satellite tracking) and an on-the-ground report from Torsten Kriening at the European Space Policy Institute event in Vienna.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

China’s Lunar Ambitions and Upcoming Missions

Timestamp: 02:54 – 04:19

• China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) Update:
  • China reaffirms it is “holding firm to its goal of landing astronauts on the moon by 2030,” with development and testing scheduled for lunar program hardware.
  • Upcoming tests include integrated lander testing, thermal and dynamic escape tests for the Mengzhou spacecraft, and low-altitude verification flights of the new Long March 10 rocket.
  • Next taikonaut crew (Zhang Lu, Wu Fei, Zhang Hongzhang) named for Shenzhou 21 mission; imminent launch from Jiuquan.
  • International Collaboration: Two Pakistani astronauts will train with Chinese taikonauts; one will fly as a payload specialist. This is pursuant to a China-Pakistan agreement signed earlier in the year.

Major Space Industry Headlines

Timestamp: 04:20 – 08:40

• AST Space Mobile & STC Group sign a “10-year commercial agreement to enable direct-to-device satellite mobile connectivity across Saudi Arabia and key regional markets.”
• Japan’s Axel Space signs MoUs with Ghana and Kenya for social solutions using earth observation data.
• UK Space Agency to receive nearly £2.8 billion over five years to spur science and tech R&D.
• Carmen Space and Defense acquires Five Axis Industries, strengthening its manufacturing for commercial space engines.

Deep Dive: Chinese & Russian Space Operations

Guest: Greg Gillinger, SVP Strategy & Development, Integrity ISR
Timestamp: 10:34 – 22:31

1. Chinese Reusable Rocket Development (Landspace Zhuque 3)

• Upcoming test launch of Landspace’s Zhuque 3 rocket, which Greg describes as “China’s answer to the Falcon 9.”
  • “It’s not as capable as the Falcon 9, but it’s nearly as capable. ... Landspace was actually the first company to launch into orbit using Methalox.” (Greg at 11:36)
  • The rocket utilizes methane-LOX, similar to Blue Origin's New Glenn and SpaceX's Starship. Expected to boost launch cadence and lower costs.

2. Guo Wang Constellation (China’s ‘Starlink’ Equivalent)

• Recent launches increase constellation to 95 operational satellites, with 18 in test and three in GEO.
  • “Guo Wang is kind of the state-sponsored of these mega constellations... They plan well over, I think it’s almost 13,000 satellites.” (Greg at 13:05)
• Other Chinese constellations in progress, such as Thousand Sails (Qianfan). Production delays noted: second group of 18 satellites took 220 days vs. previous average of 54 days.
  • “They encountered some production problems, it looks like... only three have made it to operational orbit from the last batch.” (Greg at 13:43)

3. Heavy-Lift Launch and Classified Payloads

• Long March 5B launched with extended fairing (18m) for larger payloads; carried TJS 20 satellite (mission possibly signals intelligence, missile warning, or imaging).
  • “You wouldn’t do that on accident, right? ... We’re waiting to see where TJS 20 winds up in GEO.” (Greg at 16:10)
• Notable imaging: Yaogan 41’s imaging capability at GEO (~5m resolution).

4. Chinese Satellite Maneuvers: SJ23 & TGS14

• SJ23, a “wandering” GEO satellite, changed direction after a close (47 km) approach to TGS14.
  • “What was interesting...they timed it so that SJ23 would have about a 47 kilometer close approach with another Chinese satellite called TGS14.” (Greg at 18:27)
• Purpose of these maneuvers remains unclear, but they reflect advanced on-orbit operations.

5. Russian LUCh Olymp/K1 Satellite Retirement

• The LUCh Olymp/K1 satellite, known for “loitering” near Western GEO satellites, apparently moved to graveyard orbit; may be “retired responsibly” or out of fuel.
  • “It looks like... Russian space operators recently maneuvered LUCH increasing its altitude over 300 kilometers, placing it into what we would call a graveyard orbit.” (Greg at 19:48)
• The behavior is characterized as “unusual”; newer LUCh Olymp/K2 remains active.

Other Notes

• Integrity ISR offers online courses on space intelligence topics, November is “veterans month” with a special promo for veterans.
  • “From the 1st through the 30th of November, we’re offering half off the cost of tuition for many of our online courses.” (Greg at 21:46)

European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) Conference Recap

Reporter: Torsten Kriening, SpaceWatch Global
Timestamp: 24:24 – 30:11

• The conference, held at Vienna’s Town Hall, attracted 382 delegates from 60 nations, focusing on whether “Europe can truly become a space power.”
• Urgent theme: “Europe as a Space Directionality – Priorities of Strategic Autonomy.”
• Calls for less bureaucracy, more risk-taking, and industrial agility. Key quotes:
  • SP Director Ludwig Müller: “Europe is a space power, not as a slogan but as an ambition we must realize together.” (Paraphrased, 24:47)
  • Sind O’Sullivan, Harvard Business School: “If we all believe ESA will be there forever, maybe that’s the problem.” (26:40)
  • Matthias Link, Luxembourg Space Agency: “We can’t outspend bigger nations, but we can outspeed them.” (27:15)
• Insights:
  • Civil/defense space boundaries dissolve; dual-use innovation essential.
  • Partnerships with Africa, LATAM highlighted as strategic.
  • Middle Eastern perspective: with US reliability “increasingly questioned, China is seen as an alternative partner.”
• Torsten’s Four Conference Takeaways: (29:15)
  1. Europe must act with speed/unity or risk becoming a spectator.
  2. Innovation needs risk-takers, not just regulation.
  3. Space diplomacy is now central; partnerships will define power.
  4. Europe must move from rhetoric to actionable space power.

Notable Quotes

• Maria (Host):
  • “China says that it is holding firm to its goal of landing astronauts on the Moon by 2030…” [02:54]
  • “I’m just thinking to compare Guo Wang, we just hit 10,000 for Starlink, so a little bit of catch up needed...” [14:53]
• Greg Gillinger (Integrity ISR):
  • “It’s not as capable as the Falcon 9, but it’s nearly as capable...” [11:36]
  • “Guo Wang is kind of the state-sponsored of these mega constellations...” [13:05]
  • “What was interesting about this particular maneuver is that it looks like Chinese operators timed it...” [18:27]
  • “It looks like... Russian space operators recently maneuvered LUCH, increasing its altitude over 300 kilometers, placing it into what we would call a graveyard orbit.” [19:48]
• Torsten Kriening (SpaceWatch Global):
  • “Europe is a space power, not as a slogan but as an ambition we must realize together.” [24:47, relaying SP Director Müller]
  • “We can’t outspend bigger nations, but we can outspeed them.” [27:15, quoting Matthias Link]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:37 — Main headlines and China’s Moon plan intro
• 02:54 — Details on China lunar ambitions, crew names, and international cooperation
• 04:20 — AST Space Mobile / STC, Axel Space, UK investment headlines
• 10:34 — Greg Gillinger on Chinese and Russian satellite activity
• 13:05 — Guo Wang constellation update
• 14:53 — Comparing Guo Wang and Starlink
• 15:07 — Chinese heavy-lift launches
• 18:27 — Chinese satellite maneuver (SJ23 & TGS14)
• 19:48 — Russian LUCh Olymp satellite update
• 24:24 — Torsten Kriening reports from Vienna (European Space Policy Institute)
• 29:15 — Four takeaways for Europe’s space ambitions

Memorable Moments

• China demonstrates global leadership by extending astronaut training opportunities to Pakistani astronauts—showcasing international collaboration in space.
• European space leaders openly grapple with whether the continent can shed bureaucracy and risk-aversion to become a genuine space power.
• Greg’s detailed account of China’s satellite maneuvers (SJ23) provides a rare glimpse into sophisticated on-orbit activities.
• Lively debate at the ESPI conference about the need for Europe to move “from statement to substance” in space ambitions.

For listeners seeking a comprehensive and intelligence-rich summary of current space affairs—especially regarding China’s lunar intentions, satellite maneuvering, and global space policy—the episode provides expert clarity, strategic context, and actionable insights.