T-Minus Space Daily (N2K Networks)

Episode: How Many Anti-Satellite Weapons Are Currently in Orbit?
Date: October 2, 2025
Host: Maria Varmazas
Featured Guest: Brandon Karpf

Episode Overview

This episode of T-Minus Space Daily tackles critical issues at the intersection of cybersecurity and space, focusing on the growing threat landscape in orbit, particularly concerning anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons and vulnerabilities in space infrastructure. The featured segment is a monthly "Cyber and Space" deep-dive with Brandon Karpf, covering recent geopolitical escalations, cyber risks to satellites, and urgent calls for industry vigilance.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Space Industry News Highlights [01:15–07:56]

• Major partnerships & acquisitions:

  • European Space Agency's MoUs with Korea Aerospace and other global partners for semiconductor research.
  • Intuitive Machines’ acquisition of Kinetics, enhancing deep space navigation and mission planning.
  • Varda Space extends re-entry partnership in Australia, aiming for near-monthly commercial re-entries by 2028.
  • Belgium’s Space Applications Services joins StarlabSpace as JV partner, increasing global market access.
  • Collaborations to advance in-space semiconductor manufacturing and reduce errors from space radiation.

• Other headlines:

  • Federal agency layoffs amid the US government shutdown, including 11,000 FAA furloughs.
  • Ispace, T Mobile, Maxar Intelligence, and Blue Origin project updates.
  • Spacecoin’s blockchain data transmission demonstration through orbital satellites.

"Using space for secure data transfer, I guess not exactly new news."
— Maria Varmazas, [08:38]

Monthly Expert Segment: Cybersecurity & Space with Brandon Karpf [10:46–22:13]

Prediction: Imminent Rise in Satellite Infrastructure Attacks

• Escalating Threats and Preparation for Attacks:
  • Brandon Karpf predicts clear evidence "within the next 12 months" of adversaries preparing large-scale attacks against satellite infrastructure, potentially on par with or exceeding the Viasat hack.

"We are going to see clear evidence of preparation for another Viasat-level hack, an attack against satellite infrastructure."
— Brandon Karpf, [11:04]

• Geopolitical Context:

  • Increased Russian aggression in Eastern Europe: incursions with drones, missiles, manned aircraft.
  • Russia’s demonstrated ability to coordinate cyber and physical attacks, as shown in previous events (e.g., Viasat).
  • Breakdown in dialogue between Western nations and Russia amid escalating rhetoric.

• Alarming Numbers: Anti-Satellite Weapons in Orbit

  • Canadian Space Forces’ Brigadier General Christopher Horner reports tracking “potentially more than 200 anti-satellite weapons currently in orbit.”
  • Both the French and Canadian space military leaders warn of a rapidly worsening threat environment.

"Canada's space leader... revealed that they are tracking at least potentially more than 200 anti satellite weapons currently in orbit, which is a scary number."
— Brandon Karpf, [13:37]

"If you had asked me how many ASAT weapons do I think are in orbit, I would not have come up with 200. Not even close."
— Maria Varmazas, [14:12]

What Should the Community Do?

• Key Threat Factors:

  • Russia’s active jamming of GPS signals in Eastern Europe.
  • Significant presence of Russian ASAT weapons.
  • 120% increase in cyber intrusions against space infrastructure over the past year ([17:34–17:57]).

• Call to Action:

  • Urgent need for "shields up" mentality among governments and especially businesses.
  • SMEs in defense and aerospace particularly vulnerable due to tech debt and unpatched systems.

• Exploits and Vulnerabilities:

  • Recent Cisco ASA exploit exposure is especially relevant for space-adjacent companies using edge devices for network security ([15:30–16:30]).
  • Potential for adversaries to leverage these vulnerabilities for persistent access and offensive cyber operations against satellite ops.

Business & Technology Implications

• New Technologies for Defense:
  • Importance of digital twins, secure comms, zero trust, low-latency optical networks, and self-healing satellite architectures.

"This is really a call to action, to the community, to get together now. It's also a business opportunity."
— Brandon Karpf, [18:49]

• Signs of Battlespace Preparation:
  • Reconnaissance behaviors and attempts to access critical network segments/signs of staged malware should be treated as early warning ([19:27–21:03]).

Sector-Wide Coordination Needed

• Not Just a Military Story:
  • Civilian and commercial space operators—especially those supporting constellations, data relay, and Earth observation—must heighten vigilance.
  • Threat actors are already moving beyond intelligence-gathering to potentially preparing destructive malware.

"Businesses need to stand up and take notice. Although it is fascinating to think, if not in a good way, if Russia already potentially has a foothold somewhere, then you've got to try and figure out who's in your network right now. That is not an easy thing to do."
— Maria Varmazas, [16:52]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the surge in ASATs:

"Canada's space leader... revealed that they are tracking at least potentially more than 200 anti satellite weapons currently in orbit, which is a scary number."
— Brandon Karpf, [13:37]

The new threat reality for businesses:

"Types of businesses that are in the defense and aerospace domain, especially industries and businesses with some tech debt... This is a critical vulnerability."
— Brandon Karpf, [15:51]

A clarion call across the community:

"This is really a call to action, to the community, to get together now... anyone who's working on things like digital twins, secure communications, zero trust architectures..."
— Brandon Karpf, [18:49]

On public-private vigilance:

"Not all of those [cyberattacks] are necessarily preparation of the battlespace... but the situation can tip very quickly from initial access into preparing the battlespace."
— Brandon Karpf, [18:03]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [01:15–07:56] — Space industry news roundup (ESA & global partnerships, Intuitive Machines acquisition, Varda/Australia, StarlabSpace JV, semiconductor advancements)
• [10:46–22:13] — Featured segment: Cyber warfare in space, ASAT weapons, imminent cyber threats, and community response with Brandon Karpf
  • [11:02] — Bold prediction of Viasat-scale attack within 12 months
  • [13:22] — Statements from French and Canadian military space leaders; 200+ ASAT weapons in orbit
  • [15:30] — Cisco ASA vulnerabilities explained in context
  • [16:52] — The need for business vigilance emphasized
  • [18:49] — Call to action for the space cybersecurity sector
  • [19:40] — What defenders should watch for in cyber threat telemetry
• [23:54–27:19] — Human spaceflight research news: Kazakhstan's SANA-1 isolation experiment and milestone for women in space science

Final Takeaways

• The proliferation of anti-satellite weapons (currently over 200 in orbit) signals a rapidly growing threat to all facets of space infrastructure and global security.
• The cyber and physical battlespace in orbit is heating up, with nation-states like Russia preparing for escalations beyond the Ukrainian theater.
• Defenders—especially in the commercial sector—must not assume attacks are solely a military concern but recognize that their systems are key targets for disruption or destruction.
• Proactive security measures, technology upgrades, and greater public-private collaboration are urgently needed.
• The next 12-18 months are poised to be especially fraught with heightened risks and require vigilance from everyone involved in the global space and cybersecurity communities.

Listeners are encouraged to submit their cybersecurity and space questions to the show for future expert analysis.