How sovereign is Europe's space industry?

Summary

T-Minus: Space-Cyber Briefing — Episode Summary

Episode Title: How sovereign is Europe's space industry?
Podcast: T-Minus: Space-Cyber Briefing
Date: July 26, 2026
Hosts: Maria Varmazes & Ethan Cook (Producer, N2K Networks)

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Overview

This episode explores the concept of European space sovereignty—what it is, why it matters now, and the practical and geopolitical challenges tied to securing independence in space technology and supply chains. Maria Varmazes and producer Ethan Cook focus on two main lenses: the fragility and dependencies in the global space supply chain, and NATO’s growing influence on the European conversation about sovereignty in both defense and space.

This is part two of the discussion, building on the previous week’s episode.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Supply Chain Vulnerability and Sovereignty

• Resilience vs. Dependence on Foreign Supply ([03:57]):

  • Ethan draws attention to the underappreciated aspect of where Europe sources critical materials—rare earth metals, semiconductor chips—essential for space infrastructure.
  • Unlike the US, Europe lacks both the land for massive factory builds and domestic supplies of strategic raw materials, resulting in greater foreign dependency.

  Quote (Ethan Cook, 04:41):

  "Are you really sovereign if 80% of your rocket or 80% of your satellite isn't even sourced from your own country? ... What happens if a supply chain shortage happens? Or what happens if that country experiences a global conflict or a regime change?"

• Legislative Lags in Response to Risk ([05:40]):

  • There’s acknowledgment that while these risks are known, European legislative or proactive movement on securing space supply lines has been limited.

  Quote (Ethan Cook, 05:54):

  "I haven't seen as much legislation as I would have loved to seen or movement to really start addressing some of these concerns to speed up supply chains, to increase resiliency, and to minimize how much foreign dependence happens across the globe."

• Economic Reality and Political Willpower ([07:01]):

  • The discussion highlights the challenge of justifying big investments in supply resilience versus more immediate issues like energy independence, especially to European taxpayers.
  • Maria notes that urgency and willingness vary greatly across Europe, influenced by proximity to perceived threats (e.g., Russia).

  Quote (Maria Varmazes, 07:01):

  "Unless Russia is literally knocking on the border ... do you need Russia literally in your country for this to become urgent, or can you prepare for this ahead of time?"

2. The "Missed Opportunity" After the Ukraine Invasion

• Political Capital and Fading Fervor ([08:25]):

  • Ethan reflects that the invasion of Ukraine was an inflection point that could have galvanized transformative change in Europe—but the momentum faded.
  • The US, meanwhile, used the crisis to shore up its own supply chain agreements.

  Quote (Ethan Cook, 08:25):

  "The Ukraine invasion was a really good opportunity to galvanize, especially within Europe. ... The boat may have sailed on that opportunity and we may be waiting for another one."

3. The Rise of India as a Key Space Collaborator

• Shift from Russia to India ([09:34]):

  • With Russian collaboration complicated post-2022, India is emerging as a vital new partner for Europe in space.
  • Maria notes the “underreported story” of India’s space sector maturity and successful cost-effective missions.

  Quote (Maria Varmazes, 10:00):

  "They (India) have been the launch provider for many countries for their own sovereign space program. ... Indian space industry players are increasingly going to events in Europe collaborating with European players. To me this is sort of like the underreported story."

• Geopolitical Ramifications ([11:02]):

  • Ethan underscores that India’s rise is critical in the US and European strategy, both as a manufacturing partner and as a counterbalance to China.

  Quote (Ethan Cook, 11:02):

  "India has been something that has been a quiet but very, very growing force ... It's very clearly in response to China."

  Quote (Maria Varmazes, 13:41):

  "Truly, you ignore India at your own peril."

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4. NATO’s Expanding Role in European Space Sovereignty

• NATO’s New Space Focus ([14:58]):

  • Maria mentions NATO’s establishment of a Space Centre of Excellence in 2023 and how NATO is now a deliberate part of the European space sovereignty dialogue.
  • She questions how NATO involvement is “complicating or augmenting” the sovereignty conversation.

• Reliance on the US & The Alliance’s Evolving Security Doctrine ([15:46]):

  • Ethan delineates NATO’s traditional role alongside growing concerns about future US commitment, amplifying the urgency for Europe to build its own capacity.

  Quote (Ethan Cook, 16:20):

  "With the US ... signaling that it is not willing to contribute as much ... we need to make sure that in order for NATO's long term security that there has to be investment on the European front ... so that if the US were to ever leave ... that doesn't leave the rest of the countries caught with their pants down."

• Articles 3 and 5: Collective Defense and Self-Help ([17:28]):

  • The conversation highlights NATO’s foundational principles, including Article 5 for mutual defense. Maria introduces Article 3’s newfound relevance: continuous, effective self-help and mutual aid, interpreted to include not just traditional defense but also cyber and space infrastructure.

  Quote (Maria Varmazes, 18:04):

  "Article 3 is the idea around continuous and effective self help and mutual aid and that that can apply to things not just like physical infrastructure, but also virtual infrastructure and cybersecurity, but also infrastructure for information sharing."

• Information Sharing as Strategic Power ([19:13]):

  • Ethan stresses that strong intelligence, detection, and sharing capabilities—developed and held by Europeans themselves—are critical for true sovereignty.

  Quote (Ethan Cook, 20:14):

  "Europe being able to provide and share information within itself ... is critical. ... Getting away from having, relying on other countries for intelligence ... is so important for Europe."

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Notable Quotes

• On sovereignty and practicality:
  Ethan Cook (04:41):

  “Are you really sovereign if 80% of your rocket or 80% of your satellite isn’t even sourced from your own country?”

• On public perception and urgency:
  Maria Varmazes (07:01):

  “Space feels very, very abstract. So I imagine it’s a much harder sell. I don’t have a solution here. If I did, I wouldn’t be on a podcast.”

• On missed opportunities post-Ukraine:
  Ethan Cook (08:25):

  “That was an opportunity for Europe to negotiate similar deals.”

• On India’s new role:
  Maria Varmazes (10:00):

  “India ... extremely mature space program, extremely successful. ... If a country wants to have their own sovereign satellite ... they will send it to India to launch it for them if they don’t have a launch capability of their own.”

• On NATO’s evolving priorities:
  Maria Varmazes (18:04):

  “Article 3 is ... continuous and effective self help and mutual aid ... that can apply to things not just like physical infrastructure, but also virtual infrastructure and cybersecurity, but also infrastructure for information sharing.”

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Segment Timestamps

• [03:57] Supply chain vulnerabilities and sovereignty: practical limitations, reliance on rare materials
• [06:00] The costly pursuit of redundancy and taxpayer willingness
• [08:25] Missed momentum after the Ukraine war; shifts in political will
• [09:34] Europe’s deepening relationship with India in space
• [14:58] NATO’s role, the Space Centre of Excellence, and sovereignty implications
• [17:28] Emphasis on NATO Articles 3 & 5—defense, self-help, and new interpretations in cyber and space
• [19:13] The strategic importance of intelligence and information sharing

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Tone & Structure

The tone is conversational yet analytical, with Maria and Ethan openly wrestling with complexity and acknowledging unresolved tensions. Humor and candor appear throughout (“If I had a solution, I wouldn’t be on a podcast.”).

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a nuanced exploration of Europe’s struggle for space sovereignty, balancing vision with harsh geopolitical realities. Supply chain independence, rising partners like India, and the shifting sands of NATO’s involvement all reshape what sovereignty in space means for Europe in the coming decade—framing it as not just technical, but also deeply political and economic.

(End of Summary)

Transcript

[Maria Varmazes]

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[Maria Varmazes]

Energy independence is a huge problem for Europe right now. That is. That's how people heat their homes in the winter. I mean, it's just like that. That's a very, you know, kitchen table issue where a space feels very, very abstract. So I imagine it's a much harder sell. I don't have a solution here. If I did, I wouldn't be on a podcast.

[Ethan Cook]

That's why I don't think we've seen any also major legislation on that front.

[Maria Varmazes]

Right?

[Ethan Cook]

Because I think it's to the point. It's, it's really easy to point out the problem, you know, Kudos. Clap on the back for me. Hey, that's something we need to fix.

[Maria Varmazes]

I'm sure no one in Europe thought of any of this, right?

[Ethan Cook]

We're so smart, you know, you know, you know, I'm a truly original one of one here.

[Maria Varmazes]

Welcome. I'm Maria Varmazes and you're listening to T Minus Space Cyber Briefing. In this show we examine the evolution of cybersecurity in the global and orbital infrastructure that powers, protects and connects our lives. Hi everybody and thanks for joining me today. We're picking up where we left off in last week's episode. Recapping a little bit last week, T minus producer Ethan Cook and I kicked off a chat about space sovereignty in Europe, what it means and why the emphasis is on it now and its parallels to data sovereignty. Lots of geopolitics, lots of current events. Definitely listen to last week's episode if you missed it, and this week is part two. We're finishing up our European space sovereignty chat and looking at it today through two primary lenses. One is the global space supply chain and the other is the influence that NATO has on this entire discussion. Yeah, so lots to get into. So let's dive into it with producer Ethan Cook bringing us back in as we dive right in with space sovereignty and the supply chain.

[Ethan Cook]

Here's another wrinkle to this that, you know, probably doesn't get talked about as much. Not in the sovereignty aspect of it, but more from a resiliency aspect of it, which is supply chain and where we're supplying stuff from. You know, we talk about, oh, we need to have consistent access not just to, you know, fuel, but rare earth metals, semiconductor chips, etc. And these are all very important for just being able to run the infrastructure, et cetera. But the ability to produce these things on your own is critical. And I think that's something that the US has been working really hard to get, that sovereignty aspect. It's why we've seen so much investment in the chip industry within the US Because I think they realized in the COVID era that that was something that we were not nearly as secure on as we wanted to be.

[Maria Varmazes]

No, we are not. No.

[Ethan Cook]

Yeah, but I think Europe is having to really grapple with this too, because unlike the us, they don't have the, the land to just prop up factories as much as well as the, you know, mining access to some of these rare earth metals that the US has. While the US does have to go international to a degree, they do have some of that within the country. And I think that that is another wrinkle to the sovereignty question, which is, are you really sovereign if 80% of your rocket or 80% of your satellite isn't even sourced from your own country? Right. Like, great, you can launch it, you can build it within your own country, but if everything comes from another country, what happens if a supply chain shortage happens? Or what happens if that country experiences a global conflict or a regime change or any of these things could have dramatic impacts on a supply chain and overnight destroy it. That to your point, a one year delay is. It can be a death sentence to some of these programs. And that is another thing which, while I'm sure the conversation is happening because people would be foolish to not have it. I haven't seen as much legislation as I would have loved to seen or movement to really start addressing some of these concerns to speed up supply chains, to increase resiliency, and to minimize how much foreign dependence happens across the globe.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah, I mean, that is such a fascinating point, Ethan. And I think drilling down into that a little bit, it becomes how much European space sovereignty is actually possible without going European colonialism 2.0, which I don't want to see, just to be clear. I do not want to see.

[Ethan Cook]

I don't think anyone does.

[Maria Varmazes]

I don't think. No, assuming Europe stays where it's at, you know, where how much sovereignty is achievable, you know, bits to atoms is sort of the phrase that I use. You know, they're going to have to be dependent on some international trade. So, you know, how much is enough sovereignty? It's like.

[Ethan Cook]

And how redundant is, you know, are they able to have multiple sources for rare earth metals? Right. So that even though their primary source may be from country X, if that country has a problem, they have country Y as a backup. Right. And maybe it's not as much, maybe the cost is not as efficient, but at least there is a consistent influx.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah, but it's expensive as heck.

[Ethan Cook]

Yes.

[Maria Varmazes]

So then it becomes, how much is Europe willing to pay for all this? How much is the European taxpayer willing to front for all this? How, how, how much urgency does the average European taxpayer feel about funding this kind of thing, given everything else going on? I mean, unless Russia is literally knocking on the border, which some would say they are. Depends on who you ask. And it depends on where you are physically located in Europe. I would also say, having just been in the Baltics a few months ago, I was like, yeah, it really, really depends on who you ask. You know, do you need Russia literally in your country for this to become urgent, or can you prepare for this ahead of time? So how much autonomy is worth paying for? You know, it there, there, there's also, there's so many other parallel problems going on. You know, energy independence is a huge problem for Europe right now. That is, that's how people heat their homes in the winter. I mean, it's just like that. That's a very, you know, kitchen table issue where a space feels very, very abstract. So I imagine it's a much harder sell. I, I don't have a solution here. If I did, I wouldn't be on a podcast.

[Ethan Cook]

But that's why I don't think we've seen any also major legislation on that front, right. Because I think it's to the point, it's, it's really easy to point out the problem. You know, kudos, clap on the back for me. Hey, that's something we need to fix.

[Maria Varmazes]

But I'm sure no one in Europe thought of any of this, right?

[Ethan Cook]

We're so smart, you know, you know, you know, I'm a truly original one of one here, but the, it's a lot harder to, to not only build that base. The cynic in me wants to say that some of this we've missed the opportunity on. I think to your point, the Ukraine invasion was a really good opportunity to galvanize, especially within Europe. And while there was some galvanization, I think you could argue that there was probably an opportunity for more. And you know, that's the cynic in me being saying that, you know, the boat may have sailed on that opportunity and we may be waiting for another one. Because as while the Ukraine war is still very much going on, I think the fervor for it has dramatically reduced. I also think the US has been very savvy, whether you like it or not, with its negotiation of rare earth metal deals to help out with that and support that effort there. And I think that like that was an opportunity for the, for Europe to negotiate similar deals.

[Maria Varmazes]

Right.

[Ethan Cook]

And I think those are concerns long, long term that are not necessarily easily resolved and will require an immense amount of political capital to get resolved.

[Maria Varmazes]

When we're talking about international collaboration, I mentioned that Russia was prior to 2022, a key player and a key partner. I have been fascinated to see the emergence of India as a partner to European space program. Now India, in case people don't know, is I would hope they do. Massive player in space on its own.

[Ethan Cook]

Massive player in the world.

[Maria Varmazes]

In everything. Yes, in everything. And they have an extremely mature space program, extremely successful. They have been the launch provider for many countries actually for their own sovereign space program. So if a country, you know, wants to have their own sovereign satellite for, you know, Earth observation or whatnot, they build the satellite. In a lot of cases they will send it to India to launch it for them if they don't have a launch capability of their own. So India has been a huge player for a long time. And I've been just seeing over the journalist wire essentially so many press releases about Indian startups or established Indian space industry players increasingly going to events in Europe collaborating with European players. To me this is sort of like the underreported story because people just go, well, what's China doing? And it's like, well, that China's doing what's doing. They're huge. Obviously, India is also huge. And I think they are very well primed to be a key collaborator and partner to Europe if it is mutually agreeable to both parties.

[Ethan Cook]

Yeah, I mean, I think the India conversation is something that has flown on the bridge, the radar for a long time now. I think the US has been very, if you, if you track US Investments and if you track US International partnerships, India has been something that has been a quiet but very, very growing force within Southeast Asia and South Asia as a US Partner. It is very clearly in response to China.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yep.

[Ethan Cook]

I think the US has recognized that the, that China, China is. Can't be stopped. It can't. It's the, the. For years we were banking on their economy collapsing. It didn't. For years we were hoping that we could maybe make out a friendly, you know, trade agreements and all that. And while that can happen to a degree, it's not really going to stop them. You know, that the advancements that they're happening and the control that they're exerting over South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia is immense. The Pacific as a whole, Indian Ocean as a whole is, is immense. And the US doesn't have the presence there by itself to really stop that. And so the US has pivoted over the past two decades increasingly year over year to look at India as a viable partner in this. And it's not a coincidence that Biden, Trump and Obama have all been friends with Modi, the prime ministers.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah.

[Ethan Cook]

Yep, yep. And, and their previous versions. Right. Like there has been a ton of courting there, a ton of investment there from US Businesses, US Military, et cetera. And I think Europe is also realizing the same thing that if they want to. And India has recognized that India's strength right now, in my, at least in my opinion, is being able to not function as a competitor, but to European and US nations, but as a compliment, saying, hey, we're not trying to compete with you. We're trying to give you the tools that you can't have or don't want to invest in or whatever and use them with here. We'll run your operations for you, we'll run support agreements for you, trade agreements, et cetera, manufacturing, whatever it may be. And in return we'll make a ton of money off you. And in return you don't have to invest that more money into building out your own domestic. Yeah. And you know, it's a win, win for on the geopolitical stage as well, because it's a hard counter to China. Having another regional superpower there that is growing very rapidly has actively made it harder for China to kind of really, the belt and road initiative for those who follow that is still obviously going on, and it will be going on. There's nothing really stopping it. But it is not nearly as powerful as it could have been, let's put it that way.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah, yeah. Truly, you ignore India at your own peril. And India has an extremely educated workforce, a very mature space program that's been extremely successful. And for everybody who's always watching cost, they've had these successful space missions at way lower cost than a lot of other space programs like in the United States. I'm always keeping an eye on deals that are happening between European and UK companies and organizations. And the same in India because there's a lot going on there and it's just fascinating to watch. On that note, let's take a short break now. When we come back, we'll switch topics from the global supply chain over to NATO and its impact on the space sovereignty conversation. Back in a few. You got me thinking about NATO just now, which I wasn't planning on talking about because it's like, we, how much we want to dive into this.

[Ethan Cook]

We can do a NATO conversation next time and like expand that out.

[Maria Varmazes]

I know. So when I was at the cyber headquarters in December, this is such a brag. I can't believe I get to say this. I'm just gonna say when I was at NATO cyber headquarters in Estonia, I remember my ears perking up because they said, by the way, we also established a space center of excellence in the last few years. And I remember thinking, well, that's very interesting. I should remember that. So NATO established their Space center of excellence in 2023. So NATO is a factor in this conversation. That is, it has to be. So I'm wondering how much of the space sovereignty discussion is either complicated or augmented by a conversation maybe being spurred by NATO. I'm wondering out loud.

[Ethan Cook]

No, I think it's a great question to ask. I think when you think of NATO traditionally, you think of this rock solid alliance. And I think obviously over the past 10 years that's been a little shaky and to the, to the same thing of driving this sovereignty aspect. I think with the US not only just willing to pull back in general, but also pull back on some of these core military agreements that have been rock solid for decades. And Europe has had our back when we went to war In Iraq and Afghanistan, right?

[Maria Varmazes]

Yes, they did. Yep.

[Ethan Cook]

That was. These are rock solid agreements that have been there for a long time. And with the US signaling that it is not willing to contribute as much or it's going to. Its contributions will be with caveats added to them. I think you get to the conversation and this is again driving that concern where Europe is saying we need to and NATO is saying that while the US we can still use them, they'll still be there, they'll still contribute. We need to make sure that in order for NATO's long term security that there has to be investment on the European front to make sure that Europe has its standing. So that if the US were to ever leave or the US decides it doesn't want to contribute as much or whatever would happen, that that doesn't leave the rest of the countries caught with their pants down. And I think. Which kind of would have happened if it was five years ago.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah. Oh man, I feel like we could have an entire NATO conversation. I got such a NATO. If you haven't listened to the NATO podcast that I did about the cyber coalition, we'll put a link in the show notes because I learned so much about what NATO's doing and that was on the cyber security side.

[Ethan Cook]

When you talk about the various, you know, aspects of NATO, obviously you have. The first parts are kind of outlining what it is and then the later aspects, the various articles are outlining what the expectations are of the various countries. Article 5 is the most, to your point, the most well known one, which is the. Everyone has the right for mutual defense where if one is invaded, we all fight back. And it's, it's was a core pillar of the Cold War and why we had kind of this constant proxy war situation where no one ever really wanted to fight because no one really wanted to kick off another global world war. But everyone wanted to have any proxy war with people that weren't involved in the USSR and NATO.

[Maria Varmazes]

So this was. I was interviewing someone who actually works at NATO and she was saying Article 3 is that allies may separately and jointly, by means of continuous and effective self help and mutual aid, maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist an armed attack.

[Ethan Cook]

So, okay, so they're saying that the interpretation of that would be for information sharing.

[Maria Varmazes]

That was part of it. So the thing I had learned about on my NATO trip that surprised me was about Article 3. That's getting a lot of. I don't know if it's renewed emphasis, but that was the emphasis of some of the conversations I had with actual NATO staff, and it was Article 3 is the idea around continuous and effective self help and mutual aid and that that can apply to things not just like physical infrastructure, but also virtual infrastructure and cybersecurity, but also infrastructure for information sharing. Yeah, and I'm just thinking the context of that conversation that I was having at that time was specifically around cybersecurity. I could easily see that also applying in the context of space.

[Ethan Cook]

I think it would be foolish for it not to. I think you have, you know, information is power, knowledge is power. And especially, you know, we see it with the five eyes for to pull another military alliance going everywhere, you know, that that is a whole information sharing alliance, like this whole point of it. And I think when you look at NATO, that's. It's a similar aspect, which is the ability to respond to actual physical threats with collective firepower is what NATO is always known for. But the ability to prevent, the ability to circumvent, the ability predict these events are just as important. And I think that's also a hidden strength of NATO. And it will, if it's not already, it will be. And I would be surprised if it isn't be a core part of their space strategy, both from a cyber security perspective as well as just a traditional national security perspective, to securing space, to securing capabilities for the long term. I think that that is an aspect which to kind of tie it back to that sovereignty point is critical. Right. Europe being able to provide and share information within itself, within its member states, with the UK across the eu, et cetera, is critical. And that is something that I think getting away from having, relying on other countries for intelligence, while that should be something to consider and intelligence sharing should be obviously always prioritized because the more data points you have, it's just better for so many reasons. But I think having the ability to say we have our own strong intelligence capabilities, we have our own strong training capabilities, we have our own strong detection abilities, that is so important for Europe. And I think it's an underlying conversational point for this is to really approach this both from a physical independence sovereignty question, from a data independence and sovereignty question, and from a intelligence national security sovereignty question.

[Maria Varmazes]

All right, Ethan. Yeah, we could probably talk about this for hours, genuinely, I think you and I probably could.

[Ethan Cook]

It's my wheelhouse.

[Maria Varmazes]

I know. And it is genuinely so fascinating to kind of get nerdy about this because it's current events, it's space, it's international relations, it's all the stuff that I think you and I both really enjoy thinking and talking about, so I have a feeling we're going to have more follow ups, especially as the Space act continues to work its way through in legislation. So we're going to keep an eye on that. But in the meantime, Ethan, this has been so much fun. Thank you so much. Yeah, we'll do it again. So thank you so much.

[Ethan Cook]

Thank you for having me on.

[Maria Varmazes]

And that's T Minus Space Cyber Briefing brought to you by N2K CyberWire. If you like what you heard today, you will also enjoy our newsletter, Signals and Space. You will get research and notes pulled together by our producer Ethan Cook and me, along with this week's top Space Cyber news stories. Subscribe by visiting TheCyberWire.com newsletters As always, we would love to know what you think of our podcast. Your feedback ensures that we deliver the insights that keep you a step ahead in the rapidly changing cybersecurity landscape. If you like this show, please share a rating and review in your podcast app. Please also fill out the survey in the show notes or send an email. The Space we're proud that N2K CyberWire is part of the daily routine of the most influential leaders and operators in the public and private sector. From the Fortune 500 to many of the world's preeminent intelligence and law enforcement agencies, N2K helps cybersecurity professionals grow, learn and stay informed. As the nexus for discovery and connection, we bring you the people, the technology and the ideas shaping the future of secure innovation. Learn how at. Thank you again for listening to T Minus. I am your host Maria Varmazes and the show is produced by Ethan Cook and Liz Stokes. We're mixed by Elliot Peltzman and Trey Hester with original music by Elliot Peltzman. Our Executive producer is Jennifer Ibin with content strategy by Mayan Plout. Peter Kilby is our publisher. See you next week.

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