Is SpaceX behind schedule?

Summary

Podcast Summary

Podcast: T-Minus Space Daily
Host: Maria Varmazes (N2K Networks)
Episode: Is SpaceX behind schedule?
Date: October 21, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the current state of the US lunar program, in particular NASA’s contracts for returning astronauts to the moon, with attention to whether SpaceX is falling behind schedule on its Starship lander. Key discussions include NASA’s shifting approach to the Artemis lunar landing contract in response to delays, how global competitors are advancing in the space domain, and new international space activities. The episode also features an in-depth interview with Patrick O’Neill from the International Space Station (ISS) National Lab about the impact of the US government shutdown on ISS operations, current and future missions, and the approaching 25th anniversary of continuous human presence in space.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is SpaceX Behind on Artemis? NASA’s Lunar Strategy Shift

• Host Maria Varmazes opens by addressing the big question: Is the United States falling behind in the new space race to the moon?

• NASA’s Acting Administrator, Sean Duffy, in a CNBC interview, expressed concern about delays with SpaceX’s Starship and signaled a major shift: opening the lunar lander contract to new bidders just two years ahead of the planned crewed landing.

  • Notable quote ([04:47]):

    "The problem is they're behind, they push their timelines out and we're in a race against China. ... I'm going to open up the contract, let other space companies compete with SpaceX, like Blue Origin. ... Whatever one can get us there first to the moon, we're going to take."

• Duffy stresses that speed is a new imperative due to competition with China and that the U.S. cannot afford to wait for a single company.

• Potential implications:

  • A new competitive phase for lunar contracts, possibly ending SpaceX’s sole-provider status.
  • The possibility the U.S. might get to the Moon faster, but questions arise over whether prioritizing speed could compromise safety.

• Elon Musk’s Reaction ([05:41]):

  • Musk responds on social media with characteristic optimism:

    "SpaceX is moving like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry. Moreover, Starship will end up doing the whole moon mission, mark my words."

2. U.S. Government Shutdown & Its Impact

• Despite government funding gridlock, the lunar landing contract process is not expected to move quickly due to administrative holdups.

3. International Developments and Progress

• Oman ([06:58]) launches the Middle East’s first regulatory framework for commercial space launches, aiming to process launch approvals in as little as 45 days—a rapid approval cycle by global standards.
• China ([08:53]): Landspace’s reusable ZQ3 rocket completes ground tests ahead of its maiden flight, with ambitions to drastically reduce launch costs (by up to 80-90%).
• Muon Space & SpaceX Starlink ([09:43]): Muon Space will incorporate Starlink’s mini laser terminals in its Halo satellite platform—paving the way for faster, more responsive satellite constellations with real-time access.

4. ISS US National Lab & Operations During Shutdown

Interview: Patrick O’Neill, Public Affairs & Outreach Lead, ISS US National Lab

• ISS Operations Continue Despite Shutdown ([12:46])

  • The ISS is deemed “essential,” so NASA staff continue operations. “From a viewer’s perspective, do not worry…we’re continuing normal operations in that regard.”
  • Launch cadence has not been affected; next up: Japan’s HTV-X1 resupply mission with NASA collaboration, evidencing ongoing international cooperation.

• Highlights of the Japanese HTV-X1 Mission ([14:25]–[17:49])

  • Focus on sending research to the space station, including technology from commercial partners:
    • Materials on the Space Station exterior: 3M’s technology films will be tested for resilience against temperature extremes, atomic oxygen, and radiation. ([15:28])
    • Space Tango’s Enhanced Rack ([16:37]): An expanded autonomous experiment platform enables more, less astronaut-intensive research.
  • Many projects leverage the platform’s ability to host materials and hardware outside the ISS—ideal for companies developing new technologies for harsh environments, including satellite and broadband initiatives. ([18:53])

• Broader Impact & Upcoming Milestones

  • The ISS is approaching 25 years of continuous human presence in space (anniversary on November 2, 2025). ([20:02])
    • Over 4,000 projects have been conducted on station; the ISS National Lab alone has launched 900+ payloads.
  • “We have well over 500 [scientific publications] on our own. ... Knowing that the remaining years we have, it’s going to be the best of the best science and the impacts that that could have for us here on Earth.” ([21:26])

5. Other Notable Industry Updates ([10:12])

• U.S. spaceport bond sales expected to increase following new federal legislation.
• Lockheed Martin’s latest financial results point to continued industry investment.

6. Space Force Futures Command Update ([24:22])

• The US Space Force’s proposed “Futures Command”—intended to spot and develop future space technologies—is likely being scrapped amid budget cuts and organizational reshuffling, echoing the discontinuation of similar Army initiatives.

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Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• Sean Duffy on Artemis contracts ([04:47]):

  "The problem is they're behind, they push their timelines out and we're in a race against China."

• Elon Musk’s retort ([05:41]):

  "SpaceX is moving like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry. Moreover, Starship will end up doing the whole moon mission, mark my words."

• Patrick O’Neill on ISS Ops During Shutdown ([12:46]):

  "The International Space Station program is considered essential."

• O’Neill on ISS anniversary ([21:26]):

  "...Here we are in this third full decade of station utilization and every launch we’re learning more and more. ... The ISS National Lab has launched more than 900 payloads to date."

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:08] — U.S. lunar race and NASA's concern over Artemis delays
• [04:47] — Sean Duffy explains rationale for opening up lunar lander contract
• [05:41] — Elon Musk responds
• [06:58] — Oman’s new commercial launch approval framework
• [08:53] — China’s reusable ZQ3 rocket
• [09:43] — Muon Space and Starlink partnership
• [12:46] — Patrick O’Neill on ISS stability during US shutdown
• [14:25] — Details on HTV-X1 cargo mission and upcoming ISS research
• [20:02] — 25th anniversary of continuous human presence on ISS
• [24:22] — Fate of the Space Force’s Futures Command

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Conclusion

This episode paints a picture of a shifting landscape in the global space industry, with the U.S. feeling pressure to accelerate its lunar ambitions in the face of competition, and the role of commercial and international partnerships continuing to expand. The ISS remains a hub for research and international cooperation regardless of terrestrial political gridlock, with its 25th anniversary on the horizon serving as a testament to what sustained commitment to space science can achieve.

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For further reading or to suggest questions/topics for future shows, listeners are encouraged to visit space.n2k.com.

Transcript

[A]

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[A]

Today is October 21, 2025. I'm Maria Varmazes and this is T minus.

[C]

T minus 20 seconds.

[A]

This is coming from a satellite 5 Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace and Andoya Space plan to identify, define and pursue business opportunities within the space domain. Muon Space will integrate SpaceX's Starlink mini laser terminals into their Halo satellite platform. China's Juqui 3 reusable rocket has completed major ground tests ahead of its maiden flight. Oman's Civil Aviation Authority has introduced a framework to approve commercial space launch activities. One NASA to open the US Lunar landing contract to new bidders, with acting Administrator Sean Duffy citing delays with SpaceX's Starship as the reason behind the moon and today we have our monthly catch up with Patrick Patrick o', Neill, Public affairs and Outreach Lead at the International Space Station U.S. national Laboratory. We're going to be talking about what the US Government shutdown means, if anything, for the US National Laboratory and what is heading up to the orbiting lab this week. So stick around for more on that after today's headlines. Happy Tuesday everybody. Thank you for joining me. Now, we here at T Minus are a very proudly international show with an international audience. But as you might be able to tell from my accent, I am American. So in very typical American fashion, I'm going to open up today's episode with a question specifically for us Yanks. Okay, how are we, the United States, doing in the new space race to the moon? Are we behind? Well, acting NASA administrator Sean Duffy certainly thinks so. Now, he appeared on CNBC's Squawk Box yesterday saying that he's concerned that the United States is dealing with unnecessary delays to progress with the spacecraft needed to return the astronauts to the moon. Not only that, he wants to open up the bidding for the lunar landing contract which had been previously awarded to SpaceX. Now here is what he said.

[D]

Now, SpaceX had the contract for Artemis 3 there be. By the way, I love SpaceX. It's an amazing company. The problem is they're behind, they push their timelines out and we're in a race against China. The president and I want to get to the moon in this president's term. So I'm going to open up the contract. I'm let other, other space Companies compete with SpaceX like, like Blue Origin. And again, whatever one can get us there first to the moon we're going to take. And if SpaceX is behind, but Blue Origin can do it before them. Good on Blue Origin. But by the way, we also might have two companies that can get us back to the moon in 2028. But again, we're not going to wait for one company. We're going to push this forward and win the second space race against the Chinese. Get back to the moon, set up a camp, a base, and from there it's going to, we're going to figure out how we can actually get to Mars.

[A]

Now his comments do represent a major shift in NASA's lunar strategy and starting a new competitive juncture in the program for a crewed moon lander just two years before the scheduled landing date. That is an interesting move, isn't it? And for its part, what does SpaceX think of this? Well, Elon Musk took to social media to share this. SpaceX is moving like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry. Moreover, Starship will end up doing the whole moon mission, mark my words. Okay, so a bit of healthy competition won't be so bad, will it? Or should we be concerned that the United States is prioritizing speed over safety. Well, with the current US Government still in shutdown over disagreements about the budget, it's not likely to make any moves, at least at the speed that they're looking for to reopen bidding anytime soon. So your guess is as good as mine. But only time will tell. And while the United States makes slow progress towards launch, the Middle east is speeding up. Oman's Civil Aviation Authority has introduced a framework to approve commercial space launch activities. It is the first initiative of its kind in the Middle East. ATLAC Spaceport has welcomed the announcement and says it positions Oman as a regional leader in the growing space economy, which aims to be a global leader in accessible space launch and sustainable space exploration. The recently issued Civil Aviation Directive sets out the process for coordinating spaceflight activities within Omans airspace and under the directive, companies that are seeking launch approval must submit an evidence based safety case to the CAA in order to reserve launch windows in the MUSCAT flight information region. Applications aim to be processed in as little as Listen to this now 45 days, giving operators one of the fastest approval cycles globally while maintaining rigorous aviation, maritime and ground safety requirements. Indeed, the future is looking up for Oman. Let's check in with China now and China's Juchui 3 or ZQ3 reusable rocket has completed its major ground tests. It is the last testing expected ahead of its maiden flight at a commercial launch site near the Juchuan Satellite Launch center in northwest China, according to its developer Landspace. The tests include a refueling rehearsal and a static fire of the engines. It'll return to the technical area for inspection and review with its launch plan and procedures to be refined. The Juque 3 first stage is designed to be reused at least 20 times, which Landspace says gives the rocket the potential to reduce launch costs by 80 to 90% compared with single use rockets. Juque 3's launch date has yet to be announced, but it is expected in the coming weeks. Muon Space has signed an agreement with SpaceX's Starlink to integrate its mini laser terminals into its Halo satellite platform. Muon says that the agreement will offer customers persistent real time access to their satellite constellations and data on orbit. The agreement integrates Muon satellites into Starlink's global digital infrastructure, delivering critical insights and services and opening new business models where constellations operate with the same Internet speed and responsiveness as cloud providers and telecom networks on the ground. Yuan has already begun integrating Starlink's mini laser terminals into current customer constellations and will be launching its first Starlink enabled Halo satellite in Q1 of 2027. Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace and Andoya Space plan to collaborate in several domains of strategic importance to Norway and its allies. They've signed an MOU that outlines a joint ambition to identify, define and pursue business opportunities within the space domain, drone segment and C4ISR. The MOU highlights a near term focus on building cooperation within the space sector, including satellite launch, system integration, testing, operations and long term infrastructure development. And that wraps up today's top five stories. But there's always more going on in the space industry. N2K senior producer Alice Carruth joins me now with a look at the other stories that we're watching.

[E]

Maria what an interesting move by Duffy. I wonder what the new administrator when the Administrator administration finally announces one we'll make of that move. You can read more about that story and all the others mentioned throughout this episode by following the links in the Selected Reading section of the show. Notes Today we've included two extra stories in There are U S Spaceport Set to Sell Bonds Barclays PLC says the municipal bond market is poised for new debt sales for space facilities after the enactment of this Trump Administration's One big Beautiful Bill act and Space Speaking of funding, Lockheed Martin has reported their third quarter financial results.

[A]

We here at T minus ask a lot of questions. I bet you do too. Is there something that you've been wondering about lately that you need some answers to? Maybe a particularly confounding new technology concept or hard to decipher bit of governmental regulation that could use some context? Or just like what's the deal with the. You know, you fill that bit in. Dear listener, I'm sure there's something on your mind and we want to know what are you mulling over? What's the workplace debate of the day? It could be a great topic for us to cover on T minus, so tell us about it. Spacen2k.com Foreign.

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[A]

Today we have our monthly segment from the International Space Station US National Lab and I asked Patrick o', Neill if the current US Government shutdown has any impact on the operations on the iss.

[C]

Yes, we are in the midst right now of a government shutdown in the United States. Yes, it does, it does impact us. That being said, the space station, the International Space Station program is considered essential. So there are individuals that are within the, the NASA sphere that are continuing to support operations, making sure that the crew is healthy, that they're happy, everything is safe up there on station. So I would say from a viewer's perspective to not worry about that. We're continuing normal operations in that regard. But obviously, you know, outside of that it does have some impacts. So you know, there's nothing that has changed as far as our launch cadence is concerned. We've kind of, there's a little bit of a space right now between crew missions and commercial resupply services missions. But there is a mission that's probably going to be taking place place this week in Japan and it's going to be the next iteration of the HTV vehicle. So it's the HTV X1 is the mission that's going to be taking flight. And so you know, obviously there's going to be NASA collaboration in association with that because there's a lot of projects that are flying that are sponsored from us as well as from NASA. So I think that that's a good example of, you know, that there is some continuation of operations. And again it's going to be exciting to be able to have that mission take place because it's another vehicle, another opportunity for be able to send research to the space station and ensure that our astronauts are quite busy.

[A]

Oh I would imagine, and it is the International Space Station after also does not revolve around us and our tribulation. So let's talk about that mission coming up because first of all a resupply mission from Japan doesn't seem to happen a whole lot, but that's really cool that it's happening.

[C]

It's a great opportunity for us to again send more research to station. This HTV vehicle had been one where JAXA had been trying to upgrade it for the last couple of years. So again now that it's going to be re flying it's another avenue for us to be able to have our researchers, even from the United States perspective, be able to send their R and D up there. One of the things that in talking with our operations team that they're a fan of with this is it allows for us to send projects that might not necessarily be as astronaut Intensive. So for example, there's going to be a lot of projects that are going to be flying on this mission that will event reside on the outside of the International Space Station. In particular using the MISSY flight facility which is in association with, with Aegis Aerospace and they are one of the commercial service providers for the ISS national lab. So there's going to be a lot of fun projects that are going to be looking at the extreme environment of space and seeing how that can have impacts towards their respective R and D.

[A]

I'd love you to walk me through that when you have a moment. Yeah, but go ahead.

[C]

Yeah, so one of the, one of the projects that's going to be flying is from 3M. That's a very recognizable consumer brands company where they just have, they develop so many different types of things that we are involved with on a daily basis. They're going to be looking at films, technology films on the outside of station because they want to eventually get more into the space world themselves. So by putting something on the outside of the space station, you have extreme variances in temperature, you have atomic oxygen, you have radiation spikes. So the kind of the running joke is that if you, you can put something on the outside of the space station and it can withstand that, it can withstand anything, especially back here on the ground. But for using 3M as an example, you know, again, are there things that they can learn about their films on the outside of the space station that could be applicable towards, you know, satellite design or other space technologies in the future? And so we see a lot of those types of projects when they are on the outside of station. A lot of them are much more focused in kind of the materials or technology. And just seeing, you know, how they're able to withstand the rigors of extreme.

[A]

Space, that makes a lot of sense. Any other faves from the upcoming resupply mission?

[C]

So there's going to be an update. So on the inside of the space station we have some autonomous platforms. One of them is from Space Tango and they've had an internal rack space for many, many years up there. But they are going to be enhancing that through Mambo is I believe the name of the project where it's going to be a little bit larger. So think of like a shoebox maybe now it's going to be a little bit bigger and it can, has more capabilities for the research community. So that's going to be going up, that's going to be something that's going to be available for the research community to be able to leverage Again, the reason why these are important for us is because they are less astronaut intrusive. The astronaut literally puts it in the chute, flips on the button and away goes the project. And then the astronaut can go and support other investigations or go and work out or go do what they need to do. So, you know, that's why this is a good example of you oftentimes hear NASA say over the span of six months we will see upwards of 250 investigations that are happening. And that's because not all of them have to happen with the astronaut being involved with that. So to be able to have this new capability, you know, our friends at Space Tango, we will, you know, hopefully it allows for them to further their business model and get more people interested in sending their projects to the space station.

[A]

Yeah, because they do medical research. Right. So that's a really. They do fascinating stuff at Space Tango. That's a really interesting company.

[C]

Yeah, well, and they do a lot different stuff. So to your point. Yeah, there is a lot of biomedical research that they do support, which again is kind of interesting because now it's just strictly based on the engineering and you're not having an astronaut that's doing pipettes or anything like that or being engaged with the project. So that's, that's some one area that they have. They've definitely been very active in on station, but they can also support other types of projects. They can do STEM investigations, they can do plant biology, they can support materials investigations as well. So again, I think that that's, you know, they're a good representation of the diversity that is capable of their services. What they can provide to the researchers.

[A]

That is really remarkable. Kind of a bummer that the crew don't have to put on a lab coat. Again with the pipettes. The visual is amazing, but yeah, we don't want. Their time is a limiting factor, understandably so that it is truly incredible that what people are capable of creating. Now any other faves? I feel like I'm just asking what else, what else, what else? I'm greedy, but.

[C]

Well, I mean there are other projects that are flying on that mission. Some of them I'm not necessarily at liberty to talk about because the companies themselves don't want to talk about them too much right now. They don't want to get too far ahead of the game. But again, they're going to be leveraging the outside of the space station. I can maybe kind of give a hint that maybe, maybe it's one of those companies that is looking to Build broadband technologies. So infer what you will from there. But again, like that type of, that's what I like about leveraging the outside of station is because a lot of these companies now are really trying to, you know, delve into building that economy in low Earth orbit and you know, testing things in that, in that rigorous environment so that then it could be applicable towards things that they might want to develop for themselves, whether that be on future space platforms or satellite capabilities.

[A]

And it's, and truly, as you, as you mentioned, a lot of incredible things are happening in material sciences. And there's an interview I did a year ago, I want to say, and I realized in the middle of it, a lot of space stuff is really just materials science. When you scratch the surface a little bit, it's like, oh yeah, makes a lot of sense. But of course there's lots of other things too. All right, so anything else coming in the upcoming schedule that you want to share or that we should be keeping an eye out for?

[C]

Well, you know, I think that in about two weeks time we're going to have ourselves a pretty important historical perspective for the International Space Station as a whole. 25 years of continuous human presence. That anniversary is on November 2nd. So you know, we talked about the shutdown. Hopefully at that time frame, you know, things will be back to normal again. And I'd be very excited about what it is that our friends at NASA will be communicating about. For me. I was actually working on a press release because the center for the Advancement of Science and Space Casis, we have managed the ISS National Lab since 2011. And so I'm writing this press release and it kind of brings you back down a little bit of, you know, the nostalgic of some of the projects and the partners that we've had the opportunity to work with over all of these years. And so we're very excited about the role that we have had in helping to enable access and opportunity on the space station. So we look forward to championing that alongside our partners at NASA, alongside our international partners, and alongside a lot of the companies that have facilities on the space station because they're very integral obviously in being able to enable that type of research on station as well.

[A]

It's amazing. Well, 25 is quite a milestone in one of humanity's absolutely most amazing accomplishments ever. So I don't want to downplay that. I mean it is just, it's a beautiful thing. It actually gets me a little teary eyed thinking about it.

[C]

It's been a crazy ride when you Think about it like the first 10 years they talk about it from the standpoint of trying to build it. The next 10 years it was more focused on, well, how do we use it. And I think that that's where the ISS National Lab and NASA, we really found our stride. And now here we are in this third full decade of station utilization and every launch we're learning more and more. And you know, I think that now we're well over 4,000 projects that have been supported on station. The ISS National Lab has launched more than 900 payloads to date. So next year we're excited because we should be hitting that 1,000 payload milestone. But then on top of that, it's the scientific publications that have been derived from that research. I think that we have well over 500 on our own. So again, it's very exciting to see how we have leveraged the space station and knowing that the remaining years that we have, it's going to be the best of the best science and the impacts that that could have for us here on Earth, how we can help drive business models in low Earth orbit, and how it is that we can push humanity's footprint beyond this space station to places like the moon and Mars and beyond.

[A]

Absolutely. Well, on November 2nd, I know I will be saying a toast to you all and to everyone who's ever been involved in all this incredible research and furthering what we can do as humanity. So congratulations to you, I mean to so many people, but the entire community.

[C]

It takes truly, it takes a village.

[A]

Truly, it truly does. Well, I know I'll be speaking to you after November 2nd, so I'll be saying a toast to you as well. So November 2nd listeners. You do it too, everybody.

[C]

Well, all cheers together.

[A]

Foreign we'll be right back.

[B]

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[A]

Welcome back. As the saying goes, we mortals make plans and the gods laugh at them. To much fanfare. Early in 2024, Space Force chief General Saltzman announced an upcoming Futures Command and the goal of Affirmation Command was to keep a keen eye out on the horizon a decade or so out and spot promising future techs that the Space Force should develop in house, so to speak, as well as identify how and where the commercial sector could fill any other capability gaps. It'd be the Space Force analog for other Futures Commands in other branches of the U.S. military. Well, fast forward to early this month and the US army officially sunset its own Army Futures Command. And with that, the writing seemed to be on the wall for the Space Force's own this quote in a recent breaking defense story by an unnamed Pentagon official really says it all. And I quote, futures Command is dead. Well, it's not dead yet, officially. It might be getting better, and perhaps it could even go for a walk. It is on the chopping block apparently though, and it's not that the capability to spot future techs is not needed. It sounds like an internal reorg amid questions of efficiency around this command with some budget cutapalooza is driving a lot of this discussion. So do not be at all surprised if you hear rather more officially quite soon, that the Futures Command is passed on. It is no more. It has ceased to be. It has expired and gone to meet his maker. Apologies to Monty Python. It is an X Futures Command and that's T minus Brought to you by N2K CyberWire we'd love to know what you think of our podcast. Your feedback ensures we deliver the insights that keep you a step ahead of in the rapidly changing space industry. If you like our show, please share a rating and review in your podcast app. You could also fill out the survey in the show notes or just send us an email. Space2k.com we're proud that N2K CyberWire is part of the daily routine of the most influential leaders and operators in the public and private sector. From the Fortune 500 to many of the world's preeminent intelligence and law enforcement agencies, N2K helps space and cybersecurity professionals grow, learn and stay informed. As the nexus for discovery and connection, we bring you the people, the technology and the ideas shaping the future of secure innovation. Learn [e-mail] N2K's senior producer is Alice Carus. Our producer is Liz Stokes. We are mixed by Elliott Peltzman and Trey Hester, with original music by Elliot Peltzman. Our executive producer is Jennifer for Ivan. Peter Kilby is our publisher and I am your host, Maria Varmazes. Thank you for listening. I'll see you tomorrow.

[C]

T minus.