T-Minus Space Daily: Solving the “Flight-Proven” Paradox

Release Date: February 8, 2025

Introduction

In the February 8, 2025 episode of T-Minus Space Daily, hosted by Maria Varmazes from N2K Networks, the discussion centers around the burgeoning challenge in the space industry known as the "flight-proven" paradox. As the demand for innovative space technologies escalates, the gap between technology development and actual deployment becomes increasingly pronounced. This episode delves deep into this issue, exploring strategies to bridge the gap and accelerate the deployment of cutting-edge space capabilities.

Guests and Their Roles

Maria is joined by two esteemed guests:

• Ron Burke, Principal Director of the Space Enterprise Evolution Directorate at the Aerospace Corporation.
• Erin Miller, Executive Director at Space ISAC (Information Sharing and Analysis Center).

These guests bring a wealth of knowledge from both the aerospace industry and the realm of information sharing and analysis, providing a comprehensive perspective on the challenges and solutions related to flight-proven technologies.

Understanding the Flight-Proven Paradox

The "flight-proven" paradox refers to the dilemma where, despite a clear demand for rapid deployment of space technologies, the scarcity of flight-proven systems hampers progress. This paradox creates significant hurdles for bond buyers, insurers, investors, and regulators in assessing risks associated with new space ventures.

Increasing Launch Cadence and Its Challenges

Erin Miller highlights the dramatic rise in launch activities, noting, “We are all seeing this uptick, this continued increase in the launch cadence, which is extremely valuable in its own right” (04:00). With approximately 260 launches recorded last year and a growing number of commercial entities entering the space sector, the demand for launch capacity is at an all-time high.

However, the rapid development of space technologies has outpaced their deployment. For instance, in the realm of in-space servicing, assembly, and manufacturing, over 400 companies are developing capabilities, but only around seven have been deployed so far. Erin emphasizes, “We recognize that 2% sort of running through the pipeline from development to deployment in space is lower than any of us would like” (04:45).

Role of Space ISAC and the Aerospace Corporation

Maria Varmazes introduces the collaborative efforts between Space ISAC and the Aerospace Corporation aimed at addressing this paradox. Space ISAC serves as a hub for sharing threat and vulnerability information, operational collaboration, and advancing technologies to support the space industry's security and operational needs.

Ron Burke explains, “As demand for innovative space capabilities continues to grow, a critical gap exists in the availability of flight-proven technologies” (02:29). Together, Space ISAC and the Aerospace Corporation are developing initiatives to streamline the path from technology development to deployment, aligning with the Space Force’s commercial space strategy.

Operational Collaboration and Emerging Threats

The conversation shifts to the evolving threats in the space domain. Maria points out, “We see massive amounts of GNSS interference on a daily basis which impacts aviation as well as the space industry” (07:50). Such geopolitical dynamics necessitate robust operational collaboration to safeguard space assets.

Erin elaborates on Space ISAC’s initiatives to prepare the commercial sector for these emerging threats: “We have an initiative underway to create the most robust threat intel feed that exists and that's coming out of the watch center” (09:10). This initiative aims to provide comprehensive threat intelligence, facilitating better preparedness and response strategies.

Testbeds and Proving Grounds: Bridging Development and Deployment

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the role of testbeds and proving grounds in accelerating the deployment of flight-proven technologies. Erin Miller states, “We are tracking over 100 testbeds and proving grounds that exist and that can be available for these kinds of uses” (14:13). These facilities offer critical environments for testing and validating new technologies before their operational deployment.

Maria adds, “We are not going to broker the selling of a service but we're ensuring a high-quality product that is going to deliver for this trusted environment” (15:46). By cataloging and integrating these resources, Space ISAC aims to maximize their utilization, ensuring that innovative technologies can transition smoothly from development to deployment.

Digital Twins and Future Perspectives

The episode also explores the emerging concept of digital twins—virtual replicas of physical systems—and their role in the space industry. Erin discusses, “Digital Twin environments assist Lunar digital twins are going to be very valuable in that regard” (23:14). These digital environments allow for extensive testing and validation in scenarios that are otherwise challenging to replicate physically, such as operations in the sys-lunar domain.

Erin further highlights the influence of adjacent industries: “We're seeing adjacent industries to the space industry implement the industrial metaverse” (24:04). By adopting best practices from other sectors, the space industry can enhance its testing and validation processes without reinventing foundational methodologies.

Policy Implications

Policy considerations are integral to the initiatives discussed. Maria notes, “The more effective and efficiently we create these integration capabilities to make them available to industry, then the more likely it is that we're going to see and measure the demand for these different services” (21:15). Enhanced integration and accessibility of testbeds not only support technological advancement but also have significant implications for national security and regulatory frameworks.

Ron Burke echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the importance of policy in facilitating the deployment of flight-proven technologies, thereby ensuring that the space industry remains competitive and secure.

Conclusion

In wrapping up, Maria Varmazes shares insights on future initiatives: “I think we're going to see the exercise program that Space ISAC runs. We do about four exercises a year that are developed by the commercial sector” (25:03). These exercises are designed to simulate real-world scenarios, providing invaluable experience and fostering rapid adoption of new capabilities.

Erin extends an invitation to the audience, encouraging stakeholders to engage with Space ISAC to recognize and utilize additional testbeds and proving grounds. This collaborative approach is pivotal in overcoming the flight-proven paradox, ensuring that the space industry can meet its ambitious growth targets efficiently and securely.

Notable Quotes

• Erin Miller: “We recognize that 2% sort of running through the pipeline from development to deployment in space is lower than any of us would like.” (04:45)

• Maria Varmazes: “We are not going to broker the selling of a service but we're ensuring a high-quality product that is going to deliver for this trusted environment.” (15:46)

• Erin Miller: “Digital Twin environments assist Lunar digital twins are going to be very valuable in that regard.” (23:14)

• Maria Varmazes: “The more effective and efficiently we create these integration capabilities to make them available to industry, then the more likely it is that we're going to see and measure the demand for these different services.” (21:15)

Final Thoughts

This episode of T-Minus Space Daily underscores the critical need for collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders, government entities, and research organizations to navigate and resolve the flight-proven paradox. By leveraging testbeds, digital twins, and robust threat intelligence, the space industry can accelerate the deployment of innovative technologies, ensuring sustainable growth and maintaining a competitive edge in the rapidly evolving space landscape.

For more insights and detailed analysis on the space industry, visit N2K Networks.