Solving the “flight-proven” paradox.

Summary

T-Minus Space Daily: Solving the “Flight-Proven” Paradox

Release Date: February 8, 2025

Introduction

In the February 8, 2025 episode of T-Minus Space Daily, hosted by Maria Varmazes from N2K Networks, the discussion centers around the burgeoning challenge in the space industry known as the "flight-proven" paradox. As the demand for innovative space technologies escalates, the gap between technology development and actual deployment becomes increasingly pronounced. This episode delves deep into this issue, exploring strategies to bridge the gap and accelerate the deployment of cutting-edge space capabilities.

Guests and Their Roles

Maria is joined by two esteemed guests:

• Ron Burke, Principal Director of the Space Enterprise Evolution Directorate at the Aerospace Corporation.
• Erin Miller, Executive Director at Space ISAC (Information Sharing and Analysis Center).

These guests bring a wealth of knowledge from both the aerospace industry and the realm of information sharing and analysis, providing a comprehensive perspective on the challenges and solutions related to flight-proven technologies.

Understanding the Flight-Proven Paradox

The "flight-proven" paradox refers to the dilemma where, despite a clear demand for rapid deployment of space technologies, the scarcity of flight-proven systems hampers progress. This paradox creates significant hurdles for bond buyers, insurers, investors, and regulators in assessing risks associated with new space ventures.

Increasing Launch Cadence and Its Challenges

Erin Miller highlights the dramatic rise in launch activities, noting, “We are all seeing this uptick, this continued increase in the launch cadence, which is extremely valuable in its own right” (04:00). With approximately 260 launches recorded last year and a growing number of commercial entities entering the space sector, the demand for launch capacity is at an all-time high.

However, the rapid development of space technologies has outpaced their deployment. For instance, in the realm of in-space servicing, assembly, and manufacturing, over 400 companies are developing capabilities, but only around seven have been deployed so far. Erin emphasizes, “We recognize that 2% sort of running through the pipeline from development to deployment in space is lower than any of us would like” (04:45).

Role of Space ISAC and the Aerospace Corporation

Maria Varmazes introduces the collaborative efforts between Space ISAC and the Aerospace Corporation aimed at addressing this paradox. Space ISAC serves as a hub for sharing threat and vulnerability information, operational collaboration, and advancing technologies to support the space industry's security and operational needs.

Ron Burke explains, “As demand for innovative space capabilities continues to grow, a critical gap exists in the availability of flight-proven technologies” (02:29). Together, Space ISAC and the Aerospace Corporation are developing initiatives to streamline the path from technology development to deployment, aligning with the Space Force’s commercial space strategy.

Operational Collaboration and Emerging Threats

The conversation shifts to the evolving threats in the space domain. Maria points out, “We see massive amounts of GNSS interference on a daily basis which impacts aviation as well as the space industry” (07:50). Such geopolitical dynamics necessitate robust operational collaboration to safeguard space assets.

Erin elaborates on Space ISAC’s initiatives to prepare the commercial sector for these emerging threats: “We have an initiative underway to create the most robust threat intel feed that exists and that's coming out of the watch center” (09:10). This initiative aims to provide comprehensive threat intelligence, facilitating better preparedness and response strategies.

Testbeds and Proving Grounds: Bridging Development and Deployment

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the role of testbeds and proving grounds in accelerating the deployment of flight-proven technologies. Erin Miller states, “We are tracking over 100 testbeds and proving grounds that exist and that can be available for these kinds of uses” (14:13). These facilities offer critical environments for testing and validating new technologies before their operational deployment.

Maria adds, “We are not going to broker the selling of a service but we're ensuring a high-quality product that is going to deliver for this trusted environment” (15:46). By cataloging and integrating these resources, Space ISAC aims to maximize their utilization, ensuring that innovative technologies can transition smoothly from development to deployment.

Digital Twins and Future Perspectives

The episode also explores the emerging concept of digital twins—virtual replicas of physical systems—and their role in the space industry. Erin discusses, “Digital Twin environments assist Lunar digital twins are going to be very valuable in that regard” (23:14). These digital environments allow for extensive testing and validation in scenarios that are otherwise challenging to replicate physically, such as operations in the sys-lunar domain.

Erin further highlights the influence of adjacent industries: “We're seeing adjacent industries to the space industry implement the industrial metaverse” (24:04). By adopting best practices from other sectors, the space industry can enhance its testing and validation processes without reinventing foundational methodologies.

Policy Implications

Policy considerations are integral to the initiatives discussed. Maria notes, “The more effective and efficiently we create these integration capabilities to make them available to industry, then the more likely it is that we're going to see and measure the demand for these different services” (21:15). Enhanced integration and accessibility of testbeds not only support technological advancement but also have significant implications for national security and regulatory frameworks.

Ron Burke echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the importance of policy in facilitating the deployment of flight-proven technologies, thereby ensuring that the space industry remains competitive and secure.

Conclusion

In wrapping up, Maria Varmazes shares insights on future initiatives: “I think we're going to see the exercise program that Space ISAC runs. We do about four exercises a year that are developed by the commercial sector” (25:03). These exercises are designed to simulate real-world scenarios, providing invaluable experience and fostering rapid adoption of new capabilities.

Erin extends an invitation to the audience, encouraging stakeholders to engage with Space ISAC to recognize and utilize additional testbeds and proving grounds. This collaborative approach is pivotal in overcoming the flight-proven paradox, ensuring that the space industry can meet its ambitious growth targets efficiently and securely.

Notable Quotes

• Erin Miller: “We recognize that 2% sort of running through the pipeline from development to deployment in space is lower than any of us would like.” (04:45)

• Maria Varmazes: “We are not going to broker the selling of a service but we're ensuring a high-quality product that is going to deliver for this trusted environment.” (15:46)

• Erin Miller: “Digital Twin environments assist Lunar digital twins are going to be very valuable in that regard.” (23:14)

• Maria Varmazes: “The more effective and efficiently we create these integration capabilities to make them available to industry, then the more likely it is that we're going to see and measure the demand for these different services.” (21:15)

Final Thoughts

This episode of T-Minus Space Daily underscores the critical need for collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders, government entities, and research organizations to navigate and resolve the flight-proven paradox. By leveraging testbeds, digital twins, and robust threat intelligence, the space industry can accelerate the deployment of innovative technologies, ensuring sustainable growth and maintaining a competitive edge in the rapidly evolving space landscape.

For more insights and detailed analysis on the space industry, visit N2K Networks.

Transcript

[Maria Varmazes]

You're listening to the N2K space network.

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[Ron Burke]

As demand for innovative space capabilities continues to grow from both the United States government and the commercial sector, a critical gap exists in the availability of flight proven technologies. And this is creating challenges for bond buyers, insurers, investors and regulators in assessing risk. So how do we get around this really tricky flight proven paradox? Welcome to Team deep space from N2K Networks. I'm Maria Varmanzes. I spoke with Ron Burke, principal director of the Space Enterprise Evolution Directorate at the Aerospace Corporation and Aaron Miller, Executive Director at Space ISAC at spacecom in Florida to discuss their new initiative to help companies get to flight proven.

[Aaron Miller]

Welcome to T Minus Space Daily from Commercial Space Week. And now I'm joined by two guests from the Aerospace Corporation and the Space isac. Could you please introduce yourselves?

[Maria Varmazes]

First left to right, Erin Miller, executive director at Space isac. And Space ISAC is an information sharing and analysis center where we share threat and vulnerability information. We also do operational collaboration and advanced technologies and capabilities. Really excited to be here. Thanks for having me.

[Aaron Miller]

Thanks for joining today. Thanks.

[Erin Miller]

All right, thanks, Maria. Ron Burke with the Aerospace Corporation focusing on space enterprise evolution. So the areas of space that look different through the windshield and through the rear view and helping to build the capability and capacity to be able to meet these emerging challenges into the future.

[Aaron Miller]

Excellent. Well, thank you both for joining me today. I've been really looking forward to this chat because big fans of the work that you both are doing. So, Ron, we had started talking a little earlier about the increasing need for higher cadence of launch and the challenges that's going to bring. And I didn't want to sort of spoil this. I wanted to hear your thesis statement on that because it was really fascinating, if you don't mind indulging me.

[Erin Miller]

No, absolutely, Maria. So we are all seeing this uptick, this continued increase in the launch cadence, which is extremely valuable in its own Right. Right. Getting up to 260 launches last year. But with that coupled with that is also an increase in what the commercial community is doing. Right. So we understand that there's on the order of 10,000 companies, space companies in the world, on the order of 5,000 in the US and they're all developing capabilities that of course, they all plan to take to space. Right. So it's going to take a lot of launch capacity, a lot of a strong launch cadence to get that up. But one of the things that we're recognizing is that the level of development has outpaced the level of deployment, at least to this point. Right. So I'll take just one very specific area to kind of put a context in the area of in space servicing, assembly and manufacturing. We're tracking over 400 companies that are developing capabilities. We're also tracking what's been deployed. And according to the information that we have, it's on the order of seven. So we recognize that 2% sort of running through the pipeline from development to deployment in space is lower than any of us would like. So we are looking for paths to be able to accelerate the deployment of these innovative commercial capabilities. Very consistent with the Space Force commercial space strategy. And so with that, we have developed this wonderful partnership with the Space isac. So Erin, over to you to talk a bit about the kinds of things that we're doing to do that acceleration.

[Aaron Miller]

Yes, please.

[Ron Burke]

Yeah, yeah.

[Maria Varmazes]

This is a big new program that Space ISAC is doing in partnership with the Aerospace Corporation. It's one of several things that we do. So I mentioned, we also do threat and vulnerability sharing and we do this through our Operational Watch center, which became available in 2023. So it's now been operating for a while. And we have an information sharing portal as a result of that capability. And it's already operating on a global scale. We designated Australia as a global hub last year in August. We're working towards a full Aukus plus Japan and EU countries collaboration.

[Aaron Miller]

Fantastic.

[Maria Varmazes]

For thread sharing.

[Dave]

Yep.

[Maria Varmazes]

And we also have a vulnerability lab. Well, that vulnerability lab is just one lab. And what we came to realize is that across Australia, the US and the UK and other places around the world with similar interests. Then there's a lot of testing capability. Yeah, a lot of commercial and government funded initiatives that allow for us to advance the development of technology. So it's not just a security focus, it's also an operational focus so that we can solve this flight proven paradox. Because the faster we can get to flight proven, then the faster we're going to get ahead of our adversaries. And that's what Space ISAC is about. Broadly, we are about security and national security. So this new program is completely in alignment with our initial intent of the Space isac. And now you'll find services on our member portal that showcase the testbeds improving grounds across the Aukus Partnership.

[Aaron Miller]

Wow.

[Maria Varmazes]

That's our starting place.

[Aaron Miller]

Wow, that's really cool. And that does make a lot of sense as I hear you describe it. And it speaks really well to the mission also here. And I think it's been about almost a year since we all last spoke and I'm just wondering, putting sort of like my, my old cyber hat on a little bit about like the nature of the evolving threat. What we've seen in the last year again, as we're increasing that cadence, like what have we seen? What are we, what are we seeing?

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah, Geopolitical dynamics have led to what we're considering pivoting across different domains. Typically, you know, you'd hear probably like military folks talk about this kind of thing or intelligence community, but the commercial world cares a lot about this now because it affects their ability to do business. So we see massive amounts of GNSS interference on a daily basis which impacts aviation as well as the space industry. And then we see as you know, owner operators are traversing around the world and their satellites are being interfered with, payloads are being interfered with, and there's a variety of different types of non kinetic and kinetic activities occurring. A lot of close proximity events and standoffs kind of in space, which is an evolving and slightly newer dynamic for the commercial sector to have to deal with. So right now in Space ISAC we're preparing the commercial sector to handle new types of threats and situations through operational collaboration.

[Aaron Miller]

Are you seeing like that greater maturity from within the commercial sector in terms of, I guess, operational ability to take on what they need to do to sort of mitigate these threats or what are you seeing out there?

[Maria Varmazes]

We have an initiative underway to create the most robust threat intel feed that exists and that's coming out of the watch center, but that will Also inform a lot of the supply chain activities and these testbeds improving grounds as well. Because we need to test for what is actually occurring. We need to prepare for an operational environment. So it is a full cycle feedback loop. The space ISAC operates completely outside of the acquisition cycle. So we're not necessarily helping companies find funding for these initiatives, but we are putting them in a position where they can do the appropriate testing as fast as possible, have access to the resources and know what the threat is that they're preparing for at the same time.

[Aaron Miller]

Yeah, go ahead.

[Erin Miller]

Yeah. And Aaron, I'd like to pick up on that point about the operational environment. And that's the real essence, that's the of the words proving grounds in this set of activities, not just test beds in terms of the traditional sort of thermal vac and other fundamental test facilities to verify that components and systems can operate in the vacuum of space. It's also being able to test like you fly, to be able to test the operation of the capability in its environment. And with all of these different capabilities that are being developed, right. Thousands of individual companies putting up capabilities, there is the recognition that we increasingly have to be able to test the performance between systems as we evolve into ecosystems. From a legacy of purpose built kinds of space solutions to more individually developed capabilities intended to be reconfigured or configured in different ways in space.

[Aaron Miller]

That's a huge shift.

[Erin Miller]

It's a huge shift and it puts a completely different set of challenges on space capabilities. It makes it simpler for in terms of focusing on a very specific type of performance, functional performance, but it makes it more complicated in the sense that you have to be sure that while you're performing as intended, you're doing no harm to other capabilities that are in space and operating in proximity or tandem in the process.

[Ron Burke]

We'll be right back.

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[Aaron Miller]

So we've got increased cadence, increased complexity. Quite a challenge, but like a lot of opportunities there too.

[Erin Miller]

Oh, absolutely. And fortunately a lot of capability. As Aaron has mentioned, we are tracking over 100 testbeds and proving grounds that exist and that can be available for these kinds of uses. And one of the challenges that we're seeking to enable by, through our partnership is to streamline access to these capabilities, make that part easier, smoother, so that things can go faster.

[Aaron Miller]

Yeah. So how would you know, an interested party get involved with this?

[Erin Miller]

So the front door for this activity is through Space isac.

[Aaron Miller]

Okay.

[Erin Miller]

Yep. There's other capabilities that are available in the community. So recognizing that there are multiple paths, one straightforward path is through space ISACs. So Aaron, maybe share the.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah. This is a trusted environment that we're creating. So every entity that has a testbed or proving ground, they do go through our vetting process and we accept them in as a member or a formal partner and we work together through those steps to do onboarding. And then they can provide their information into the portal and any other trusted member of the community that's on the portal can view these sets of services that are available for test beds and proving grounds. And one of the great things too is that we're not in the middle. So we're not going to broker the selling of a service.

[Aaron Miller]

Right. Not the scheduling. Yeah, no, no.

[Maria Varmazes]

But we're ensuring a high quality product that is going to deliver for this trusted environment. And it's also not like anything that's ever existed before. Shockingly. Why has no one ever tried to put these things together? Because we desperately need a place that is like a catalog so we can do proper integration. There are so many services that are out there that are commercial funded, federally funded, and we're not seeing the Full scope of them. When we make our. Have people make decisions within companies about how they're going to design, build and test and deploy.

[Ron Burke]

Yeah.

[Erin Miller]

Erin, can you share a little bit about your, your background working in the community and recognizing a very large number of testbeds, improving grounds for research purposes that you were mentioning yesterday?

[Aaron Miller]

Sort of the genesis of this idea, it sounds like.

[Ron Burke]

Right.

[Erin Miller]

Haven't had, haven't had their time in the sun. Right.

[Aaron Miller]

Yeah. They're placed in the spotlight.

[Maria Varmazes]

Oh my goodness. Yeah. And sometimes you never realize how things are going to come full circle. But I used to work in technology transfer, so I spent almost a decade, actually longer, working to help researchers get their technology licensed. And all along the way then I was working with the Department of Defense technology transfer community, the federal lab consortium. And we didn't really work on an international scale necessarily, but we were on a regular basis engaging with the researchers, the scientists and the engineers who are being funded primarily by US Government dollars to do their work. And they all work in a testbed or proving ground type environment or adjacent to. And we invest, the US Government invest billions of dollars for sure, in our federal labs and our national labs. And they're an amazing, incredible resource. We also have the commercial sector doing similar type things, investing their dollars in test beds and proving grounds. So now it's time for us to maximize and create efficiency so that we can get more flight proven capability as fast as possible. And I'm just amazed that we've gotten to this point that we can do this. It really brings me quite a lot of joy because I saw the challenges that, you know, exposure to these labs, they have challenges getting the word out because they don't have full marketing teams and there could be underutilized resources that are already funded that commercial needs to take advantage of right now. Yeah.

[Aaron Miller]

And that feels almost criminal given the situation. That's like what we need right now.

[Erin Miller]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, from a supply and demand standpoint. Right. Just this morning here at Spacecom. Right. In the session, the NASA session this morning, our colleagues at NASA Stennis were talking about their test stands and wanting to be sure that the community was aware that they're available. And they were highlighting some of the different companies that they supported with rocket testing. And they even commented to two points you just made. One, that billions of dollars have been invested and two, that they have underutilized facilities that they want to maximize the use of. So, you know, we're, we're seeing. Yeah. So all of this is intended to put wind in the Sails, I mean, it puts wind in our sails to recognize that, you know, we might be able to, you know, align this demand and supply. But there's a community of decision makers on the path from a space based capability developing to its deployment. And we've come to euphemistically and endearingly refer to that group as gatekeepers.

[Aaron Miller]

Loaded term.

[Erin Miller]

Yes. But in a positive sense. Right. So investors, insurers, regulators, acquire acquirers and integrators all make decisions about what they're prepared to support in their systems of systems and ecosystem configurations. As we've talked to those communities, wonderful experts in each of those communities, a common element has come out from them as a community that one of the reasons that things are not going faster is because they're all expecting in quotes, flight proven.

[Aaron Miller]

Yeah, yeah, that paradox.

[Erin Miller]

Yeah, that's where the flight proven paradox comes from. Right. Is that everybody wants things to go faster, but only if it's flight proven. Right, Only if it's flight proven. So, you know, we see test beds and proving grounds as a way to move in that direction.

[Aaron Miller]

Culture shift. Yeah, really, that's mindset shift, a culture shift. But we need these resources to make that happen and to get that ball rolling.

[Erin Miller]

Exactly.

[Aaron Miller]

Now it makes a lot of sense and it also, as I said, it's smart in the way that it fits into the mission as well. It makes a lot of sense as you describe it. So yeah, it's great. So thank you for telling me about it. I appreciate that.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah. And you know, I think there is a policy, ultimately policy implication for what we're doing too.

[Ron Burke]

Oh yeah.

[Maria Varmazes]

Because the more effective and efficiently we create these integration capabilities to make them available to industry, then the more likely it is that we're going to see and measure the demand for these different services. And there's already a commercial test authority that exists that NASA leverages and other federal and national laboratories. Accelerating access for the commercial sector is part of what we're doing ultimately for national security purposes. And to get ahead of that flight proven curve makes a lot of sense.

[Erin Miller]

Yeah. So, you know, one, one sort of additional dimension that is evolving for us. You had asked earlier what, you know, what's, what's next? Right. What's, what's on the horizon? Right.

[Aaron Miller]

Always that annoying question I got asked.

[Erin Miller]

I love it. I love it. So, you know, one of the things that, you know, as we've put this approach together, we recognize that there are both physical testbeds. We talked about test stands, clearly very much physical entities, but also digital. Digital Test beds that are built in a digital engineering, digital twinning environment. And Aaron, your point just now about the policy and regulatory really like prompts an emphasis on that we are seeing sophisticated, realistic. Right. So digital twins that are representative of the physical environment and the as built environment that are evolving. And the more that that happens, the more that we're going to be able to use those tools and capabilities to participate in the testing process. And in particular in difficult to. I'm going to say access in the sense of, you know, the syslunar domain is not easy to access.

[Ron Burke]

No, no.

[Erin Miller]

But being able to verify that different capabilities that are designed for syslunar from different companies are actually going to be able to work together when they're deployed. Right. 300,000 kilometers away.

[Ron Burke]

Yeah.

[Aaron Miller]

Can't fix it once it's out there.

[Erin Miller]

Can't fix it when it's out there. So these digital twin environments assist Lunar digital twins are going to be very valuable in that regard. And we are seeing some very impressive progress towards realistic and usable digital twins.

[Aaron Miller]

It seems like we're definitely getting there. Honestly, it's been really interesting talking to people. Sorry not to go down that rabbit hole, but like been fascinating talking to people who are working on that.

[Erin Miller]

Yes.

[Aaron Miller]

And just we couldn't have been here five, 10 years ago, it's like. But we're getting there really soon. It's amazing, just absolutely amazing to be able to validate in that way.

[Ron Burke]

Yeah, yeah.

[Erin Miller]

And we're seeing adjacent industries to the space industry implement the industrial metaverse. And when I first heard that, it sounded. Yeah, right.

[Aaron Miller]

What is that?

[Erin Miller]

Yeah, what is that? Right. Curiosity. So looking into it, I have been really impressed and compelled to recognize that it's very real. It's a full digital environment that a number of companies engage in to be able to work through those kinds of problems and in adjacent industries, they've been using it for on the order of 20 years.

[Aaron Miller]

Yeah, amazing. It's great to pull those best practices from other industries. We don't have to reinvent the wheel in space at all. That was a weird metaphor that I just used, but I think you know.

[Erin Miller]

What I mean, I did.

[Aaron Miller]

Well, I know that we're coming up on time, but I wanted to make sure that you both got any last thoughts you want to impart to the audience. You want to go first?

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah, yeah. I'll give you my thoughts on the future.

[Aaron Miller]

Sure.

[Maria Varmazes]

I think we're going to see the exercise program that Space ISAC runs. We do about four exercises a year that are Developed by the commercial sector, incorporate a number of these different test beds and proving grounds, in particular the ones that are in space test beds and proving grounds into our exercises. Because showing industry in these sessions that take place just slightly in the future what the capabilities are through an exercise is always great fun. People have a blast dealing with an incident. It's surprising. But they also learn and can be exposed to new capabilities in a very rapid fashion because these are like three hour exercises.

[Aaron Miller]

Yeah. That is really cool. Awesome. Yeah.

[Ron Burke]

Thank you.

[Erin Miller]

All right. Fabulous. Maria, thank you so much for, you know, having us with you today.

[Aaron Miller]

I was like talking to you both. It's always a pleasure.

[Erin Miller]

It's fabulous. So just a closing is a call, an invitation to your audience to reach out and recognize additional test beds and proving grounds that you, you know, people in the community would like to see recognized and also reach out if you're looking for that testbed improving ground that you are certain exists and could help you to move through the, I'll say the wickets faster and would like to be able to have an easier access to be able to use that awesome resource.

[Aaron Miller]

I appreciate that. Thank you both so much for your time today. It's been a pleasure as always seeing you both. So thank you.

[Maria Varmazes]

Thank you.

[Erin Miller]

Thank you.

[Ron Burke]

That's it for T minus Deep Space, brought to you by N2K CyberWire. We'd love to know what you think of this podcast. You can email [e-mail] or submit the survey in the show notes. Your feedback ensures that we deliver the information that keeps you from a step ahead in the rapidly changing space industry. N2K's senior producer is Alice Carruth. Our producer is Liz Stokes. We're mixed by Elliot Peltzman and Trey Hester with original music by Elliot Peltzman. Our executive producer is Jennifer Ibin. Peter Kilpe is our publisher and I'm your host, Maria Varmazes. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next time.

[Aaron Miller]

Sa.