T-Minus 2024 in review.

Summary

T-Minus Space Daily: 2024 in Review – Detailed Summary

Published on December 31, 2024 by N2K Networks

Introduction

In the year-end special edition of T-Minus Space Daily, host Maria Varmazes and producer Alice Carruth reflect on the pivotal space events of 2024 and share their insights and predictions for 2025. This comprehensive summary captures their engaging discussion, highlighting significant accomplishments, challenges, and future expectations within the global space industry.

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1. Reviewing 2024 in Space

Maria Varmazes opens the retrospective by setting the stage for a deep dive into the year's most impactful space events alongside Alice Carruth.

a. Highlights of 2024

i. Mechazilla: SpaceX’s Engineering Feat

Alice highlights one of the most remarkable achievements of 2024: SpaceX's successful booster landing using a technique affectionately dubbed "Mechazilla." She emphasizes the engineering prowess required for such a feat, noting:

“Watching that Starship fifth flight and watching them capture that booster with those chopsticks was just an engineering feat that you… couldn’t have been prepared for” (04:00).

Alice praises SpaceX for consistently overcoming challenges, often succeeding on the first attempt where others may face repeated setbacks. She remarks on their near-flawless track record, which sometimes frustrates observers who yearn to see more human errors:

“SpaceX are the king when it comes to this. You know, everybody else tries things, fails and learns and starts again. SpaceX somehow pulls it off the first time almost every time” (03:30).

ii. Intuitive Machines’ Lunar Landing

Maria shares her admiration for Intuitive Machines' successful soft landing on the Moon, describing it as a moment of national pride and emotional significance. She expresses her excitement about America's return to the lunar surface:

“I felt so patriotic. Just like heck… America’s back on the moon. I just felt it. I've never… we've never been alive when America has been on the moon. So this was just… it was so amazing” (04:18).

The achievement not only marks a significant milestone for Intuitive Machines but also serves as a testament to the collaborative efforts between private companies and national space agencies.

b. Least Favorites of 2024

While celebrating successes, Maria and Alice also address the less favorable aspects of the year, focusing on communication issues and industry conflicts.

i. Poor Communication on Starliner Missions

Alice criticizes NASA and Boeing for their handling of the Starliner missions, particularly the misleading portrayal of astronauts as "stranded." She argues that poor messaging exacerbated public misunderstanding:

“The messaging that got out in the mass media… the term stranded astronauts… has been my bugbear for 2024” (07:26).

Maria concurs, highlighting how conflicting statements from astronauts and the media fueled unnecessary cynicism and mistrust:

“The astronauts would say things like hey we're not stranded and people would go yeah, yeah, yeah… It was almost mean-spirited” (09:17).

ii. Adversarial Relations Between FAA and SpaceX

Maria expresses her concern over the escalating tensions between the FAA and SpaceX, particularly regarding operations in Boca Chica. She fears that such conflicts could undermine safety and industry collaboration:

“The almost adversarial nature of… between environmental reviews, the FAA and SpaceX… I just don’t like seeing that happen” (10:32).

Alice provides context, acknowledging the FAA’s critical role in ensuring safety but hopes for improved cooperation in the future:

“I do hope that they continue to be listened to and put that safety first” (10:58).

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2. Looking Ahead to 2025

As the conversation shifts to future outlooks, Maria and Alice share their predictions and aspirations for the coming year, emphasizing both opportunities and challenges.

a. Alice Carruth’s Predictions

Alice focuses on the theme of competition as a catalyst for industry growth and innovation in 2025. She outlines several key areas to watch:

i. Emerging Launch Providers

Alice anticipates significant advancements from new launch providers like Blue Origin’s New Glenn and Rocket Lab’s Neutron. She expresses optimism about their upcoming missions:

“I think space thrives when there is a good competition out there… for 2025, my big thing is gonna be seeing New Glenn… and also Neutron” (13:24; 16:15).

ii. Lunar Missions and International Collaboration

Alice expects continued focus on lunar exploration, potentially involving new international partnerships. She hints at possible integrations of various missions aligning with lunar themes.

b. Maria Varmazes’ Predictions

Maria presents a multifaceted outlook, combining both optimistic and cautious perspectives:

i. Industry Consolidation

Maria predicts a consolidation within the space sector, where smaller launch providers may struggle to compete against larger, more established companies. She voices concerns about the sustainability of some smaller entities:

“I think we're going to continue to see some consolidation… I’m very nervous for some guys… I’m not naming names” (15:12).

ii. India’s Expanded Role in Space Governance

Maria speculates on India’s increasing involvement in space governance, predicting that India will join both the Artemis Accords and the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS):

“I predict in 2025 it will sign on with the ILRS as well… I think it would be amazing if India decides to be part of both” (16:10).

iii. Leadership and Policy Shifts at NASA

Looking further ahead, Maria envisions Jared Isaacman potentially leading NASA, influenced by Elon Musk’s disruptive approach. She anticipates a more transparent and vocal discussion about risk management in space missions:

“Jared Isaacman and Musk are the two people that are going to bring it to the fore… how much risk are we willing to allow” (15:06; 17:32).

Maria underscores the likelihood of policy shifts under new leadership, fostering a balance between progress and safety:

“There’s going to be a much more vocal conversation about how much risk are we willing to allow… for the sake of progress versus the sake of safety” (16:15).

c. Format and Content Innovations for T-Minus

Alice mentions upcoming changes to the T-Minus Space Daily format, inviting listener feedback to shape new segments and enhance the program’s relevance:

“Possibly some new segments coming in starting in February… please email us space2k.com and send us your suggestions” (20:15).

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Conclusion

As T-Minus Space Daily wraps up its 2024 retrospective, Maria and Alice convey a mix of pride in the year's achievements and concern over communication and industry dynamics. They look forward to a competitive and transformative 2025, driven by emerging technologies, international collaborations, and potential leadership changes within NASA. Their thoughtful analysis provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of the current state and future trajectory of the space industry.

For more insights and daily briefings, follow T-Minus Space Daily on your favorite podcast platform.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Alice Carruth on SpaceX’s Achievements:
  “SpaceX somehow pulls it off the first time almost every time” (03:30).

• Maria Varmazes on Intuitive Machines’ Lunar Landing:
  “America’s back on the moon. I just felt it” (04:18).

• Alice on Communication Issues with Starliner:
  “The term stranded astronauts… has been my bugbear for 2024” (07:26).

• Maria on Adversarial FAA-SpaceX Relations:
  “I just don’t like seeing that happen” (10:32).

• Alice on Future Competition in Space:
  “Space thrives when there is a good competition out there” (16:15).

• Maria on NASA Leadership and Risk Management:
  “There’s going to be a much more vocal conversation about how much risk are we willing to allow” (16:15).

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Produced by Alice Carruth, Associate Producer Liz Stokes, Mixed by Elliott Peltzman and Trey Hester. For more information, visit space.n2k.com.

Transcript

[Maria Varmazes]

You're listening to the N2K space network. Happy holidays from all of us here at N2K Networks. We're taking some time off to spend with our families and we'll be sharing some of our radio programs and repeat episodes during this time for you to enjoy. We will resume our daily briefing on January 2nd. Happy New Year.

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[Maria Varmazes]

It is New Year's Eve, a time for out with the old, in with the new. So Alice and I thought we'd better give you our take on the space events from 2024 and take a look at what we can expect in 2025. Is December 31, 2024. Last time I say that year. I'm Maria Varmazes and this is our year end T minus. And joining me today for this special edition, not our daily, but our yearly retrospective, that is, is our very own producer of all things T minus, Alice Carruth. Welcome, Alice, welcome, welcome.

[Alice Carruth]

Thanks, Maria.

[Maria Varmazes]

All right, so Alice, let's start off with thoughts on the year that was. And I have some suspicions about what your picks might be, but I really want to hear what's the top of your best of for 2024 in space.

[Alice Carruth]

You know, every year we do this. We did this. Well, we say every year. This is our second year of doing this. Second year. And you know, it's getting tougher and tougher. Last year was quite obvious. This year is like, oh my gosh, where do you even start? 2024 has been amazing, but I'm gonna have to go with it. It's gotta be the Chopsticks or Hail the Mechazilla. Cause you know, I don't think I. Yeah, yeah. It was just an epic, epic thing. And if you don't know what I'm talking about, where have you been this last year? Because watching that starship fifth flight and watching them capture that booster with those chopsticks was just an engineering feat that you. I just don't know that anybody was prepared for it, especially because it was their first try. SpaceX are the king when it comes to this. You know, everybody else tries things, fails and knows it's okay to fail and learns and starts again. SpaceX somehow pulls it off first time Almost every time. And it's almost to the point of frustrating to watch from anybody else going, I know. Can't you just do something wrong for a change? You know, be human. Be human. Exactly. I mean, the people over there are just incredible. And all credit to the teams that have thought this through, that engineered this, that made this happen, because capturing a booster like that, wow. Wow is all I can say because it was just incredible. And, you know, obviously they didn't do it in Flight 6, so I'm assuming there were a few little technical hitches with it. Maybe didn't go quite to plan, but from a viewer's perspective, it looked epic. It was amazing. I jumped up and down like a toddler at Christmas. So, you know, it was.

[Maria Varmazes]

I think we all did. Yeah. I think you have no soul if you didn't, is what I was saying.

[Alice Carruth]

No, exactly. And, you know, it was tough because, you know, I've talked about this. There are so many incredible things that happened this year, and I assume that you've picked one that would have been my second choice. So, Maria gome, what was 2024's highlight for you?

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah, it. Honestly, I mean, that is. I mean, Mechazilla is like, it has to be everybody's top pick because that's going to be on the COVID of textbooks for engineering classes for decades, if not centuries now. Like, it's up there with the absolute fantastic accomplishments of mankind. It's just absolutely insane. So it's like, okay, well, I can't pick that, so what am I going to go with? And there were a lot of contenders, but I had to go. I'm cheering on clips and honestly, intuitive machines. Getting OD on the moon, I mean, yeah, tipped, but still, a soft landing on the moon. That made me feel so patriotic. Just like heck. Yeah, America's back on the moon. I just, I felt it. I've never. You and I both, we've never been alive when America has been on the moon. So this was just. It felt really amazing to finally be alive for America going back to the moon after hearing about it my whole life. So for me, it was very emotional. I was watching it with my daughter and my husband and we were like, oh, my God. And it's just. It was so great to see, and it just made me hope that maybe we'll have more successes. I don't want to get ahead of myself that we'll have more successes in 2025. I will say I didn't react as largely as I did for Mechazilla. So it's a close second to me.

[Alice Carruth]

Yeah, yeah. It was a toss up between the two for me as well, I have to admit, because you're right. It's the first time we've seen anything an American company go back to the moon or it's the first commercial company to ever land on the moon, full stop.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah.

[Alice Carruth]

The first time America has sent a spacecraft to the moon since the 1970s. Wow. It was an incredible thing. And I have to say, 2024, when I was looking forward, when we had our last year's year roundup, it was a little bit harsh. Yeah, Little Wayne's World moment there was a little bit harsh. I did say I didn't think it was going to happen. And I was correct about the first one, only because, again, it's so difficult. And space, as we always cliche say, so hard, we expect things to not always go to plan and then learn from it and grow from it. That's where, you know, that SpaceX exception always comes in. But Intuitive Machines, man, they pulled it out of the bag and wow, wow, wow, what an accomplishment. And again, they sure did. Huge kudos to them.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah. And honestly, what a validation for Clips too, as a program. I think if there was any doubt that that was a good idea, Iam1 just proved it. And so I'm really hopeful for 2025. We'll have more of that. But just congrats to Clips and Intuitive Machines. Honestly, I think it was just fantastic. Okay, so favorite things from 2024 feels like the easiest part of this whole thing. Now I get to be Ms. Debbie Downer and ask what our least favorite things from the year were. This is sort of a harder question to answer, but I'm very curious, Alice, where you land?

[Alice Carruth]

Actually, I found this one easiest. I know, isn't that crazy? That's funny, because there has been my bugbear this year, and it was even turned up in the news when I was looking just before Christmas talking about what's going on in the iss. It's the word stranded astronauts.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yes.

[Alice Carruth]

Or the term should I say it has been driving me insane. Look, we all know that things didn't go to plan with the Starliner. And honestly, I think a lot of it was that NASA and Boeing did a terrible job with communications, which is a really rare thing when it comes to NASA. Normally they nail it and they're doing incredible work. So I'm not sure what happened with this one. Things don't always go to plan, things do go wrong. They had great contingencies but the messaging that got out in the, in the mass media particularly, but I saw it in space news as well. It was wrong. This, this idea of them being stranded, being stuck in space, it just fel. Massively over. Overhacked is the only thing. I can think of it as 10 and I just thought they could have done a far better job of explaining the whole situation running up to the test flight and why they made their decision not to bring them back down and why things are happening now. Now of course their flight has been extended. Time on the ISS should I say has been extended again, which is why we're seeing the term stranded astronauts all over again. But it has been. My biggest bugbear of 2024 is poor communications. Which just goes to show how important marketing is, which is our big thing for you and I both came from marketing backgrounds. How important that messaging is, how important the storytelling is, but also explaining the situation. I don't think people are that dumb. I think they understand the whole term of test flights and things. You know, this is the contingency, this is why we're going to do this. Human life is just not worth putting at risk. They obviously made the right decision even though Starliner came back down without any issues. But yeah, the stranded astronaut term has been my bugbear for 2024. What about you?

[Maria Varmazes]

That's a good one. Yeah, no, that is a great one. Honestly, that word and I agree with you, it's poor communication. And I don't know even when the astronauts would say things like hey we're not stranded and people would go yeah, yeah, yeah. And it would almost make it worse. It was almost like people were sort of looking for a reason not to believe them. And you know, okay, one can be really cynical and say maybe they're just saying that, but I choose not to believe that. Maybe I'm being a Pollyanna yet again. But yeah, I agree with you. It just seems almost mean spirited. I don't know, I don't like it. So speaking of mean spirited, my least favorite thing I have to say is the almost adversarial nature of what has been going on between environmental reviews, the FAA and SpaceX, specifically in Boca Chica. Watching that happen and just basically escalating throughout the year, not pointing fingers at any one entity. It's just one of those like, I don't like where this is going. It is not going to get better next year. And it just makes me wonder who's looking out for the safety of people. Does anyone really care? Is the Fox going to be guarding the henhouse next year and onwards. It just makes me nervous. So I just don't like seeing that happen.

[Alice Carruth]

Yeah, I do get it. I do. But having worked with the FAA when I was at spaceports before, they are very, very, very key. Everything is all about I can't imagine unless they really shake things up, which is obviously a huge possibility. And I can see that's what you're saying with the concern. Yeah, the right people are there at the moment. I just hope that they continue to be listened to and put that safety first.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah, maybe I'm being a little too indirect. My worries are not with the faa. Just to clarify. I think the FAA is doing the best job under very challenging circumstances and I know that a lot of SpaceX fanboys and girls love to hate them and they can at me as much as they want on that. Maybe I'll regret saying that, but it's just, it makes me really nervous to see the adversarial nature of two entities that I think should be cooperating. So I don't like it. I don't like it. And that's my least favorite thing I've seen this year. And I'm really hoping it improves next year in a responsible way and not a we shut them up kind of way. So fingers crossed. Just fingers crossed on that. Now that we've reviewed the year that was, we should take a look at 2025. But first, hey T Minus crew. If you are just joining us, be sure to follow T Minus Space daily in your favorite podcast app. Also, if you could do us a favor, share the intel with your friends and coworkers. So here is a little challenge for you. By Friday when you're back in the office, please show three friends or coworkers this podcast. A growing audience is the most important thing for us and we would love your help as part of the T Minus crew. So if you find T Minus useful, please share so other professionals like you can find the show. Thank you everybody. It means a lot to all of us here at T Minus. We'll be right back.

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[Maria Varmazes]

Welcome back. Okay, obligatory. As we start the new year, what are we looking forward to in the year? What are our predictions? This is a free space. Go on and riff else I want to know what are you thinking for this coming year?

[Alice Carruth]

So again, I went back to my. Let's look ahead at 2024 from last year and I was like, yay. Yeah, I love that. We need some Wayne's World music.

[Maria Varmazes]

The Wayne's World.

[Alice Carruth]

Yeah. Yeah. I thought it was going to be European space flight. It was going to be the year of seeing a flight from the uk and that didn't happen. And I've gotten to a point now where I'm like, I'm not sure how it's going to happen moving forward. Orbex has now moved over to Saxford and obviously Saxford had a bit of a setback with RFA and their explosion in the fall. So I'm not sure I wanted to pick that one. But I am still very much looking forward to it when it happens and I do hope I'm there. So I thought really long and hard about this and I came up with the word competition. Here's what I'm looking forward to in 2025. I think space thrives when there is a good competition out there. And that's not to say I want them infighting or anything like that. I just think the whole industry benefits when there are multiple launch opportunities. So I think for 2025, my big thing is gon be seeing new Glenn, which hopefully has already taken off by this point because we are recording this before December 30th. So fingers crossed things will go well for them both for the end of the year, if not early 2025, but also neutron as well. I think, you know, Rocket Lab have got a really good proposal with Neutron, so I'm looking forward to seeing that. And then there's the competition about what's going to happen on the moon. So I'm sure that's going to probably tee you up nicely because I'm guessing you're going to go with another lunar theme for 2020.

[Maria Varmazes]

Maybe may see.

[Alice Carruth]

Go on then. What is it? What is your prediction or what is it you're most looking forward to in this year?

[Maria Varmazes]

So I have three. Two are short, one is longer. Okay. So my. My word for my. One of my short ones actually consolidation, I have a. Maybe a more negative view of what's going, but maybe actually kind of dovetails nicely into the competition side of things. I think we're going to continue to see some consolidation of what's going on in the space industry, some tightening up. I think we're going to see some more small launch providers getting squeezed out. Unfortunately, I'm honest, very nervous for some guys. I'm not naming names. I'm just, I'm nervous. So I, I don't want to see it happen, but I think it's, it's going to. So I, unfortunately, that's, that's part of my prediction. My small prediction number two, based on absolutely nothing but vibes like this is. This is completely just like, why not? India is already in the Artemis Accords and I predict in 2025 it will sign on with the ILRS as well. This is based on no information besides just me just guessing. I, I think it would be amazing if India decides to be part of both. And I could see India doing that because they're doing amazing. So why the heck not play both?

[Alice Carruth]

It's competition. It goes back to my competition. There's nothing wrong with that.

[Maria Varmazes]

Yeah, that's right. It's true. It's true. So here's my long. Here's my long one. Looking ahead to the, the second Trump administration, very likely we'll have Jared Isaacman as head of NASA. I don't, I mean, I, I hope he becomes the next NASA administrator. I think it's going to happen. And also with Elon Musk playing such a huge role in the next Trump administration, I think we're going to see a bigger discussion out in the open. Instead of whispered behind the scenes about acceptable risk for space missions where human lives are involved, which is a conversation that a lot of people are having and they don't want to have it out loud. But I think Isaac man and Musk are the two people that are going to bring it to the fore. And of course, I'm not wishing for anyone to be harmed. I really do not want that to happen. I think just with the cadence of missions that are occurring with more and more people on these missions, something is going to happen. And I think also given Isaac man and Musk's vocal frustration with the pace of things, especially from NASA, there's going to be a much more vocal conversation about how much risk are we willing to allow, how much are we willing to slow things down in terms of for the sake of progress versus the sake of safety? I'm not coming down on a side on this. I just think we're going to have that conversation. So I'm, I've just been hearing it whispered for two years behind the scenes and I think it's finally going to be coming to the forefront.

[Alice Carruth]

It's been whispered about for a very long time. If you look at the whole commercial space risk that's been going on with both, you know, the, the New Shepard and Virgin Galactic's spaceship as well. So yeah, I do think you're, you're onto something and I think it'll be really interesting to hear what people's thoughts are about that. I think there's going to be a whole big shake up full stop when it comes to. There always is. That's the nature of politics. When you're bringing in a new administration. They're gonna have a certain change, a pivot of what they think works and what they don't. I do think Jared Isaacman would be an incredible administrator because he's a big fan of science, NASA science programs. So hopefully we might see a bit more funding towards those that might not necessarily be the sexiest things that go on over at jpl, for example, like the Mars sample mission program. Maybe they might get some extra funding and keep going. Maybe Hubble will be, maybe he'll please sending out those. Yes, that would be incredible as well. I mean that's where I think it's going to be really exciting. And you're right, he's a massive supporter of human spaceflight and progress and hopefully we'll trim things down. We all know that these programs overspend. Anybody who's worked in the federal government or even a state level government knows that they are their own worst enemies. A lot of it is to do with checks and balances, but sometimes they over egg those checks and bal for the sake of making sure they're protecting themselves. So I do think it's gonna be interesting to see the shakeup when this new administration comes in and moves things around. But what I also think is gonna be really exciting is having the likes of Elon Musk involved in this administration is they're gonna bring space to the forefront. You know, we still know from our friends and family that space is not talked about enough in the public. People still don't understand why space is important to them. So hopefully having someone like Musk at the forefront and having someone like Jared Isaacman who's been to space being part of the. And yes, I know Bill Nelson was as well, he was a politician turned one, you know, rather than the other way around. So maybe. Well, I'm just excited to see where this goes. I think 2025 is gonna be a really exciting year.

[Maria Varmazes]

I think so too. They're coming in with a very disruptive and I mean that in like the tech world, like sense of disruption point of view with Elon being so divisive. I hope that it's not a double edged sword with space becoming into the forefront. But we'll see. We shall see. So yeah, it is definitely gonna be exciting next year. So, so happy New Year, Alice. I hope it's a happy, healthy and wonderful one for all of us. And for you especially, it's been a joy working with you and may continue on into the next year and onwards.

[Alice Carruth]

Absolutely. And we're going to be shaking things up in 2025. Possibly some new format changes, possibly some new segments. Well, definitely some new segments coming in starting in February. So if people who are listening have ideas of what they want to hear, how they want to see things going in 2025, please, please, please, we genuinely mean it when we ask people to reach out to us and give us feedback because it's the only way we're going to learn. So Please email us space2k.com and send us your suggestions as we're starting to switch things around and mix things up here at T Minus.

[Maria Varmazes]

All right, so that is it for T minus for December 31, 2024, brought to you by N2K Cyberwire. For additional resources from today's report, check out our show [e-mail] we're privileged that N2K and podcasts like T minus are part of the daily routine of many of the most influential leaders and operators in the public and private sector, from the Fortune 500 to many of the world's preeminent intelligence and law enforcement agencies. This episode was produced by Alice Carruth. Our associate producer is Liz Stokes. We are mixed by Elliott Peltzman and Trey Hester with original music by Elliot Peltzman. Our executive producer is Jennifer Ibin. Our executive editor is Brandon Karp. Simone Petrella is our president. Peter Kilpie is our publisher. And I am your host, Maria Varmazes. Thanks for listening. Have a happy and healthy T minus.