What’s next for humans in LEO?

Summary

Summary of T-Minus Space Daily Episode: "What’s Next for Humans in LEO?"

Release Date: December 17, 2024
Host/Author: Maria Varmazas, N2K Networks
Guests:

• Uma Brugman - Executive Director, Aerospace Corporation's Space Safety Institute
• Brian Weeden - Center for Space Policy and Strategy

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Introduction

In the December 17, 2024 episode of T-Minus Space Daily, host Maria Varmazas delves into the future of human presence in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The episode focuses on NASA's strategies, the development of commercial space stations, satellite launches, and the newly released 2024 Space Safety Compendium. Special guests Uma Brugman and Brian Weeden provide expert insights into space safety and policy considerations essential for the sustainable growth of space operations.

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NASA’s Low Earth Orbit Microgravity Strategy

Maria begins by discussing NASA's imminent deorbit of the International Space Station (ISS), targeted for 2030, and the agency's strategic pivot towards cislunar space and beyond. NASA emphasizes collaboration with the private sector to sustain human activities in LEO while focusing on future challenges such as lunar and Martian exploration.

Key Points:

• Microgravity Research: Vital for understanding human health and developing exploration systems for deep space missions.
• Continuous Human Presence: NASA aims to maintain a steady human presence in commercial LEO destinations, ensuring ongoing scientific research and operational readiness.

Quote:

"The microgravity strategy outlined by NASA is what the agency says will enable an unbroken continuous heartbeat of humans in the commercial Low Earth orbit destinations era." – Maria Varmazas [00:47]

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Space Safety Compendium Overview

Guests Uma Brugman and Brian Weeden introduce the 2024 Space Safety Compendium, a comprehensive document outlining high-priority technical and policy considerations for the sustainability of future space operations.

Uma Brugman highlights the inclusion of cislunar safety, addressing the unique challenges of lunar orbit to prevent issues similar to those in Earth’s orbit. She also commends large constellation operators for their effective collision avoidance and debris minimization efforts.

Quote:

"We brought together cislunar safety, an area we hadn't really talked about as much. As more people go to the Moon, there's an opportunity here for us to avoid the challenges that we have in Earth orbit." – Uma Brugman [09:29]

Brian Weeden emphasizes the document’s grounding in policy discussions, noting the lack of cohesive international governance frameworks for the increasing number of space objects and operators.

Quote:

"The biggest missing piece that we see for taking the next step on many of these individual space safety issues is the need to establish mechanisms for international coordination and cooperation between all the different stakeholders." – Brian Weeden [11:33]

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Key Focus Areas of the Space Safety Compendium

Uma Brugman elaborates on the six main focus areas addressed in the compendium:

1. Human Spaceflight Safety: Ensuring the safety of astronauts through robust measures for rescue capabilities and technical support in space.

2. Launch and Reentry Safety: Establishing protocols to ensure safe launches and reentries, minimizing debris and collision risks.

3. Space Situational Awareness: Monitoring space debris and maintaining visibility to prevent collisions and manage orbital traffic.

4. Space Operations Safety: Implementing active debris removal and safe operational practices to sustain long-term space activities.

5. Cyber and Spectrum Security: Addressing cybersecurity threats in space operations and managing spectrum allocation to prevent interference.

6. Cislunar Space Management: Developing safe disposal methods and monitoring systems for lunar orbit to prevent long-term debris accumulation.

Quote:

"We've got six different areas: human spaceflight safety, launch and reentry safety, space situational awareness, space operations, cyber and spectrum, and cislunar space." – Uma Brugman [14:53]

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Insights and Surprising Developments

Brian Weeden reflects on the positive developments within LEO, noting the successful management of over 10,000 active satellites without frequent collisions, surpassing initial concerns. He underscores the necessity to adapt these successful practices as satellite numbers continue to grow exponentially.

Quote:

"We have gone from a couple thousand operational satellites to more than 10,000 active satellites, and we're not seeing crashes all the time. The companies that are operating the constellations are doing a very good job of avoiding collisions." – Brian Weeden [18:00]

Uma Brugman points out emerging gaps, such as the lack of standardized docking systems and interoperability among spacecraft, which are critical as human activities expand beyond Earth orbit.

Quote:

"This is the time to get ahead of that and get the community talking about it." – Uma Brugman [21:00]

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Policy Recommendations and Coordination

Brian Weeden stresses the importance of international collaboration, highlighting that no single entity can govern space safety alone. He advocates for mechanisms that facilitate data exchange and cooperative governance among diverse national and private stakeholders.

Quote:

"We need to think about what mechanisms exist to enable that coordination and cooperation because that's really what it's going to come down to." – Brian Weeden [23:16]

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Human Spaceflight: Lewis Hamilton’s Astronaut Training

In an engaging segment, Maria Varmazas shares the story of Formula One champion Lewis Hamilton embarking on astronaut training. This crossover between high-speed racing and space exploration underscores the multifaceted appeal of human spaceflight.

Key Points:

• Training Rigor: Hamilton experienced up to 7.5 GS during flight, surpassing the typical 5 GS endured by race car drivers.
• Future Aspirations: Hamilton expresses enthusiasm for future space missions, inspiring other athletes to consider space exploration careers.

Quote:

"As a kid, a couple of things that I wanted to be were either an astronaut or a racing driver. My love of space has only grown since I was a kid." – Uma Brugman [25:53]

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Conclusion and Takeaways

Uma Brugman emphasizes the necessity of a collective approach to address both technical and policy challenges in space safety.

Quote:

"We need a whole of space approach. We need everybody's help to solve these problems." – Uma Brugman [22:30]

Brian Weeden reiterates the need for robust international coordination to manage the complexities of an increasingly crowded space environment.

Quote:

"We hope that this Space Safety Compendium update helps advance some of these questions in the community." – Brian Weeden [23:16]

Maria closes the episode by highlighting the importance of community collaboration and the ongoing efforts to ensure the sustainable and safe expansion of human activities in LEO.

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Additional Highlights

• Commercial Space Stations: NASA supports multiple commercial space station projects, including Voyager Space’s Star Lab, which has achieved significant developmental milestones.
• Satellite Launches: Recent launches by Lockheed Martin, SpaceX, Rocket Lab, and others continue to modernize and expand satellite constellations, enhancing global navigation and communication capabilities.
• International Collaborations: Thailand's signing of the Artemis Accords marks its commitment to responsible space exploration, while Australia advances its lunar rover program in partnership with EPE Oceania.
• European Space Agency Initiatives: ESA's Triple E Space Component Sovereignty for Europe program aims to advance semiconductor technologies for space applications, enhancing Europe's space autonomy.

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Final Remarks

The episode underscores the critical interplay between technical advancements and policy frameworks in shaping the future of human presence in LEO. With contributions from leading experts and real-world examples of international cooperation and commercial innovation, T-Minus Space Daily provides a comprehensive overview of the current state and future directions of space operations.

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For more detailed insights and to access the Space Safety Compendium, visit the show notes at https://space.n2k.com/.

Transcript

[Maria Varmazas]

You're listening to the N2K space network.

[Brian Weeden]

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[Maria Varmazas]

With its deorbit still targeted for 2030, the clock is ticking for the International Space Station. And NASA has said frequently before that low Earth orbit as a domain is something that they're happy to work with the private sector on in order to achieve their science goals while NASA works on the next big challenges like cislunar space and beyond. So how exactly is NASA going to work in Leo? T minus 20 seconds to Los T. Today is December 17, 2024. I'm Maria Varmazas and this is T Min. NASA releases its strategy for sustaining human presence in LEO. SpaceX launches the first rapid response Trailblazer mission, Thailand signs the Artemis Accords and our guests today are Aerospace Corporation's Uma Brugman, who is the Executive Director of the Space Safety Institute, and Brian Weeden from the center for Space Policy and Strategy. We're going to be discussing their new Space Safety Compendium which highlights high priority technical and policy considerations for the future sustainability of space operations. And here is your intel briefing for this Tuesday. While a permanent home in low Earth orbit may be the future domain of the private sector, there is a lot of science left to be done there. And science has a lot of plans for leo. In fact, NASA has just released its final long term goals for low Earth orbit in a large strategy document just released today called NASA's Low Earth Orbit Microgravity Strategy. With their vision set on the Moon and Mars, humans aboard any trips to these places will do so in microgravity. So it's key that NASA continue vital human research in microgravity as well as test future exploration systems and retain all of the critical skills needed to operate in the microgravity environment. The microgravity strategy outlined by NASA is what the agency says will enable an unbroken continuous heartbeat of humans in the commercial Low Earth orbit destinations era. And we've got a link to the document for you to read in the show notes. Meanwhile, the NASA backed commercial space station Star Lab has completed four key milestones in the areas of habitat structural test article, preliminary design, systems integration, integrated operations and habitat structural test planning. Starlab is designed to launch in a single flight and features a large habitation module with a service module for power and propulsion. Next steps for the space station include a preliminary design and phase one safety review to confirm the station meets NASA's human spaceflight requirements. And speaking of future LEO destinations, Voyager Space's Star Lab has completed four developmental milestones marking progress in the station's design and operational readiness. Starlab is also set to complete a preliminary design Review and Phase 1 Safety Review by the end of the year. NASA is supporting the design and development of multiple commercial space stations, including starlab, through funded and unfunded agreements. The current design and development phase will be followed by the procurement of services from one or more companies where NASA aims to be one of many customers for low Earth orbit destinations. The seventh Lockheed Martin designed and built Global Positioning System 3 space vehicle, or GPS3 SV07 launched from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station last night. The satellite lifted off on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The GPS 3 SV07 was launched on an accelerated timeline and joins the Space Force's ongoing modernization of the GPS constellation. The mission, named RRT1, is the first rapid response trailblazer launch designed to demonstrate US Capabilities to rapidly deploy national security satellites. NASA has welcomed Thailand as the 51st nation to sign the Artemis Accords during a ceremony in Bangkok, Thailand. Committed to the safe and responsible exploration of space to benefit humanity. Lunar Outpost's Australian subsidiary Lunar Outpost Oceania has been selected to co lead Australia's first lunar rover program with EPE Oceania. The EL02 consortium has been selected to design, construct and operate the rover on the lunar surface. The project is funded by the Australian government through the Australian Space Agency and the rover, which you might remember is named Rover by the Australian public, is Lunar Outpost's fourth contracted lunar mission. China held two launches at the start of this week. The first saw a group of satellites for an Internet Constellation liftoff from the Wanchang space launch site in South China's Hainan Province on Monday. The second launch sent a new group of synthetic Aperture radar satellites into space from the Taiyuan Space Launch center in North China's Shanxi Province. The European Space Agency has kickstarted its Triple E space Component Sovereignty for Europe program. ESA has signed a contract with frontgrade Geissler to lead the initiative to advance semiconductor technologies for space applications. The Swedish company is collaborating with key industry leaders to leverage their collective expertise in high performance microprocessors, advanced semiconductor libraries and high speed memory interfaces. The project will incorporate additional technologies from adjacent developments and partners, including high speed serial interfaces die to die interconnected and system in package concepts. Rocket Lab has delivered its second Pioneer spacecraft to Vandenberg Space Force Base and completed production and testing of a third for Varda Space. The two spacecraft are part of a four vehicle contract between Rocket Lab and Varda. Rocket Lab's Pioneer platform hosts Varda's Reentry capsule, which leverages microgravity conditions to conduct operations in space that are difficult or impossible on Earth. And that concludes our briefing for today. Check out the links to all the stories that I've mentioned in our show notes and today We've also included three extra for you. One on the Artemis 2 core stage move from last week, another announcing the new leader of STEM engagement for NASA, and there's a third one from T Mobile on their direct to cell satellite service. Hey T Minus crew. If you are just joining us, be sure to follow T Minus Space daily in your favorite podcast app. Also, if you could do us a favor, share the intel with your friends and co workers. Here's a little challenge for you before the holiday by Friday, please show three friends or coworkers this podcast. That's because a growing audience is the most important thing for us and we would love your help as part of the T Minus crew. So if you find T Minus useful, please share it so other professionals like you can find us. Thank you so much everybody. It means a lot to me and all of us here at T Minus.

[Uma Brugman]

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[Maria Varmazas]

Today's guests are Aerospace Corporation's Uma Brugman, who is the Executive Director of the Space Safety Institute, and Brian Weeden from the center for Space Policy and Strategy. We're talking about the hot off the presses 2024 Space Safety Compendium, which highlights high priority technical and policy considerations for the future sustainability of space operations.

[Uma Brugman]

I'm Uma Brugman. I am the Executive Director of Aerospace's Space Safety Institute. We released the first edition of the Space Safety Compendium and this year when we went back and looked at it, we incorporated feedback from industry and government reviewers. So we had several sessions with the Government. We had several sessions with industry and took their feedback and incorporated that. The whole reason behind releasing this edition is to put forth our recommendations and observations on important safety issues. One thing I'll introduce is that we brought together in this edition cislunar safety. That was one area that we hadn't really talked about as much. And as more and more people go to the Moon, there's an opportunity here for us to avoid the challenges that we have in the Earth orbit. So that's one of the areas that we made changes in. And the other area that I want to quickly point out is that when we talk about space operations, we've had a chance to observe what Large Constellation operators are doing. And I want to say that they're doing an excellent job of avoiding collisions, minimizing creation of debris. And so that's something that we talk about a little bit in this edition that we didn't in the last one.

[Maria Varmazas]

Fantastic. Brian, I want to turn to you. A lot of the recommendations, I'm sure, have lean a lot on policy. And last two years there's been a lot of work in policy, or at least a lot of discussion. Maybe not things haven't gone as far as people would like, but things are being worked on. I'm very curious about the policy recommendations that are in this 2024 compendium. Especially maybe in comparison to where we were two years ago.

[Brian Weeden]

Yeah, no, it's a great question and it's something to keep in mind. Because a lot of what we have in here relating to those policy level discussions. I'll say first and foremost, this document is not a policy document. The goal was to put together more technical operational recommendations for best practices. But they are absolutely rooted in a lot of the policy questions. So to back up a little bit, several levels, as many people know, we have this growing participation in space from many more countries and many more companies, rapid growth in the number of space objects, and lots of questions about what is the best governance framework for how those activities will be undertaken. We have this core set of international treaties that lay out very broad principles for how space activities should be conducted. And those same treaties also say the onus is on the states to be responsible for their own national space activities, including those of the private sectors. And there's broad agreement on some international norms when it comes to things like orbital debris mitigation or, you know, how to best provide for the long term sustainability space activities. But beyond that, there's not a lot of clarity on things, you know, at the national level, states are Pretty much free to kind of implement those broad principles and norms how they see fit. We see a lot of innovation from states in terms of national proposals for various policy measures or, you know, ways to improve debris mitigation. And then we've also seen a lot of private sector proposals over the last several years. I've sort of lost track of how many different groups of think tanks, academics or companies or various other places have put forward sort of their proposals for best practices or standards or various recommendations. So that's sort of the context that this is going into. And I think that, you know, if people are looking for, we're going to get to one set of rules and one entity in charge. We're quite away from that. Right. There was an interesting document put out by the office Space Commerce earlier this year that sort of recognized, you know, that the global vision they see for space traffic coordination, space traffic management, is there's going to be multiple different entities that are all putting out recommendations or who are, you know, having different sets of analyses on conjunctions or close approaches. And the question is, how do those different hubs work together? How do they exchange data? So that, honestly, is sort of the biggest sort of policy level recommendation we have in here, is the need to establish mechanisms for international coordination and cooperation between all the different stakeholders, public and private, within the US and internationally. That's one of the biggest missing pieces that we see for taking the next step on many of this individual space safety issues we see.

[Maria Varmazas]

So diving into sort of the areas of the space safety issues. Uma, I'll go back to you for this one. Can you walk me through just broadly what those focus areas are for the SSI and sort of how that was gone through in this compendium?

[Uma Brugman]

So I'll start with the easiest one, human spaceflight safety. As more and more humans are going out to space, we think of those suborbital spaceflights we're looking at, what measures do we need to take, what needs to be in place, what are the technical hard challenges? For example, if there was an issue with having to rescue a human in space, do we have the capability or what do we need to have in place? Things like that. So that's what human spaceflight safety discusses. We've got launch and reentry safety, and that's pretty straightforward. What do we need to have in place so that we have safe launches? And then when you're reentering, how do you come in safely without creating any additional debris or having problems having any collisions? We talk about space Situational awareness, and that's pretty straightforward. We're looking at space debris. Where is it? What are the things that are around you when you're launching, when you are operating in space? And that space operations is about safely operating. Once you are through launch and you are in space, what do you need to do to safely operate? And we discuss things like active debris removal. What's needed to do that so that you can safely operate? Then we have Cyber and Spectrum. And this is again a very new and emerging area. Cyber's been around. But cyber in space, what can happen? What kind of incidents could you see? What are the mitigations available? We talk about supply chain and things of that nature. Supply chain risk management becomes a big piece of our compendium this time. And then finally we talked about cislunar space. We're talking about having an architecture on the moon that's similar to what we have on the Earth. What are some safe disposal options near the moon? How do we figure out what can we do around the Moon to keep it from creating the problems that we do have around the Earth? We've heard that if there is debris in the cis lunar space debris can last a thousand years. So how do you avoid that? How do you make sure that you are monitoring any kind of debris that's out there? So those are the six different areas.

[Maria Varmazas]

I'm curious, when you think back on this great effort, and this is a question for both of you, are there any points that particularly stand out to you, maybe that were either surprising or something that you want to make sure that people don't miss within this incredible piece of work? Something that just really stands out to you. And Brian, since I haven't heard from you in a bit, I'll go to you first.

[Brian Weeden]

Sure. I'll start with two. One, on the topic of space situation where space operations, as Uma noted, five, ten years ago, when people were thinking about these large constellations of several thousand satellites coming out of the pipeline, there was a lot of concern about whether we're going to have all these crashes and lots of more space debris. One of the surprising things looking back is we have gone from a couple thousand operational satellites to more than 10,000 active satellites. And we're not seeing crashes all the time. The companies that are operating the constellations are doing a very good job of avoiding collisions. And there's a lot of lessons learned from the procedures they've put in place, from the things we have done, both sort of on the technology innovation side as well as on the organizational Cooperation, engagement, side to prevent this. So that's one of the things sort of that surprising in a positive way. But of course then the question is what as we continue to scale that up past 10,000 to maybe 20, 30, 40,000 and more, and there's more constellations coming line, can we continue that growth? Are we going to continue to be able to find, you know, that way to operate safely and overcome the additional challenges that are coming? That's sort of the, you know, the good news on what's happened the last few years and sort of a question of well, we still have some challenges ahead of us. We need to make sure we look at the others. I'll just pick up something you mentioned we have in place right now for Earth orbit. A pretty robust set of guidelines for how to mitigate the creation of orbital debris and dispose of it and sort of make sure it doesn't pose a long term problem. We are just the beginning of thinking about what that looks like for cislunar space and lunar orbit. And you know, some people might think well it's still pretty early, we're heading up there. No, there's actually stuff up there and there's actually missions in lunar orbit that are already doing conjunction assessments to try and avoid collisions. And the one thing we, we discovered as we dug into this research is we can't just cut and paste the solutions from Earth orbit because the lunar environment is radically different. There is no atmosphere in which you could that a clean stuff out of lunar orbit. You can't just dispose of the atmosphere on the moon. Things are going to come in really hard when they re enter because I don't think to slow them down.

[Maria Varmazas]

That's right.

[Brian Weeden]

That hints at where we are and just thinking about this problem and it's going to be different, it's going to be a different set of recommendations and there's going to need to be a process both to figure those out and get everyone on board with those.

[Uma Brugman]

One of the areas that we delved a little bit deeper this time is the in space rescue capability gap. So as more humans start going into space, we think this is now is the time to start thinking about pursuing rescue capabilities. So we've been flagging the need to talk about space rescue for a while. And we're working with rand, RAND Corporation, they have been frequent collaborators with us on this issue. We are planning to develop a technical blueprint or roadmap for developing rescue capabilities. And so we'll be publishing that. So stay tuned. It's coming to a major conference this summer. But that's an area we talk about in the compendium. Let's develop and implement a future proof safety framework. Let's look at what gaps that exist right now and let's address that as a community. There are, you know, let's talk about common docking systems for spacecraft. So if two satellites are next to each other right now, they may not be able to dock. They may not be able to because there's a gap there. There's also a gap in interoperability. So let's talk about those. So this is. Now is the time to get ahead of that and get the community talking about it. So that's something we talked about and that really stood out for me in this compendium.

[Maria Varmazas]

I would love to get your wrap up thoughts. Uma, why don't you go first? Anything you want to leave our audience with before we conclude today?

[Uma Brugman]

I think the biggest takeaway from the compendium is really to, to understand the technical challenges, the policy challenges that we have and understand that we need a whole of space approach. We need everybody's help to solve these problems. And so we need to come together as a community and look through these issues. And there's more challenges than what we've addressed here. This by no means is the compendium comprehensive, but we want the community to look at these and start thinking about how to work collaboratively and come together to solve these problems.

[Maria Varmazas]

Thank you. And Brian, same question to you. Any wrap up thoughts?

[Brian Weeden]

Yeah, I'll follow up sort of a little bit more of what Uma just said and go back to this coordination. I think no one entity is going to have the final answer in all this. No one entity's in charge of all of this. There's again as we talked at the very beginning, a growing group of both countries and companies. Lots of diversity in terms of how they're approaching it, in terms of level expertise. There's a lot of work that needs to be done. More on the collaboration coordination part of it. I mentioned that earlier, but I'll just sort of foot stomp it again. This time we really need to think about what mechanisms exist to enable that coordination and cooperation because that's really what it's going to come down to. And you know, we hope that this Space Safety Compendium update sort of helps advance some of these questions in the community. We're not going to say that this is the end all be all of things. We hope is sort of the next step in getting that coordination, getting sort of a better sense across the whole community of where we should be headed and what are some of the challenges and some of the solutions we have to address some of those challenges.

[Maria Varmazas]

We'll be right back. Welcome back. Anyone working in the space industry knows that there's a lot of parallels between space launches and car racing. The unique engineering, the speeds, g forces to the aerodynamics. So it'll probably come as no surprise that race car drivers are also attracted to the idea of human spaceflight. Case in point, Formula One race car driver Lewis Hamilton has just finished his last season with Mercedes, and on his first week off the racetrack, he's been training for a new adventure. The seven time world champion has undergone flight training for astronauts. He was put through the same training as was used to prepare the Inspiration 4 and Polaris dawn crew for commercial spaceflight missions. And during the flight, Lewis experienced a maximum of 7 and a half GS. GS, which is more than astronauts typically experience on Ascent. Formula One drivers can experience up to five GS when cornering at high speeds. So the flight was a little more strenuous than a typical day on the track. Lewis was pictured wearing a unique race suit featuring a dedicated space mission patch with his starting number 44. Why space? Well, why not space? Right? Here's what he had to say.

[Uma Brugman]

As a kid, a couple of things that I wanted to be. It was either an astronaut or a racing driver. My love of space has only grown since I was a kid and I was just always fascinated about the moon landings. I've watched online so many of the of the launches. I'm fascinated with what's out there.

[Maria Varmazas]

We're pretty sure that Lewis Hamilton will be heading to space in the near future after he declared that he cannot wait to get his wings. And we're pretty sure he won't be the last racing driver to look to space after their career on the track. That's it for team minus for December 17, 2024. Brought to you by N2K CyberWire. For additional resources from today's report, check out our show notes@space.n2k. We're privileged that N2K and podcasts like T Minus are part of the daily routine of many of the most influential leaders and operators in the public and private sector, from the Fortune 500 to many of the world's preeminent intelligence and law enforcement agencies. This episode was produced by Alice Carus. Our associate producer is Liz Stokes. Remixed by Elliot Peltzman and Trey Hester with original music by Elliot Peltzman. Our executive producer is Jennifer Iban. Our executive editor is Brandon Karp. Simone Petrella is our president. Peter Kilby is our publisher. And I am your host, Maria Vermazis. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.