Talking Feds: A Bad Dictator is Still a Dangerous One

Host: Harry Litman
Guest: Steven Levitsky, Professor of Government, Harvard
Date: December 1, 2025

Episode Overview

In this urgent and wide-ranging conversation, host Harry Litman and renowned political scientist Steven Levitsky (co-author of How Democracies Die and Tyranny of the Minority) examine America’s intensifying slide toward authoritarianism during Donald Trump’s second term as president. Drawing on global parallels and Levitsky’s Latin American expertise, they analyze how Trump’s project has evolved, why attacks on civil society are escalating, and what avenues remain to protect American democracy. The discussion is frank, incisive, sometimes sobering—but it ends with some guarded hope about the United States’ enduring “exit ramps” from autocracy.

Key Topics and Insights

1. Comparing Trump's Two Administrations (02:10)

• Trump's Transformation:
  Levitsky contrasts Trump’s first chaotic, constrained term with the far more prepared, ideological, and organized approach of the second.
  • In 2016, Trump “didn't expect to win ... had no authoritarian plan and he had no authoritarian team ... he governed mostly with ... mainstream Republicans. And they constrained him.” (02:14)
  • By 2025, Trump has “full control over the Republican Party,” with personalistic dominance greater than any U.S. precedent:
    “FDR didn’t have remotely this sort of control over the Democratic Party. And so this is new.” (03:16)
  • Trump now governs with loyalists and ideologues (like Russ Vought and Stephen Miller) who’ve “spent four years planning, learning, studying, and plotting this out. And so they hit the ground running this time.” (04:18)

Notable Quote

"This is a much, much more effective authoritarian project than the first time around."
— Steven Levitsky (04:48)

2. Public Reaction & "Performative Authoritarianism" (05:04, 06:14)

• Impact on Ordinary Americans:
  Most citizens are not directly affected by authoritarian changes in daily life—“most authoritarian regimes ... don’t touch most people’s daily lives” (06:26)—and news consumption habits deepen public indifference.

• Unique Style:
  Unlike typical “hidden” authoritarianism, this US administration flaunts its abuses—
  “It’s quite performative ... with masked men on the streets and bullying people and terrorizing people in cities almost needlessly." (08:10)
  This, Levitsky notes, is rare since the 1930s, and is actually counterproductive:
  “It’s pissing people off needlessly ... constant and very public attacks... it’s pissing people off.” (09:31)

Notable Quote

"If Trump were Orban or Erdogan or Hugo Chavez, he could have an approval rating much closer to 50%. But the constant and very public attacks...it's pissing people off."
— Steven Levitsky (09:30)

3. Attacks on Universities & Civil Society (09:41, 10:33)

• Strategy:
  Authoritarians naturally target universities as “centers of dissent” (10:38), but in the US, this is also an ideological campaign to purge leftist influence, inspired by international far-right movements.

  • Chris Rufo named as “the mastermind” behind attacks on higher education and cultural institutions (12:00).

• Ineptitude and Ideology:
  There is both sinister strategy and some administrative incompetence, a blend not always seen in other regimes.

Notable Quote

"There's this belief that this country's institutions have been captured by the left and that both public and private institutions need to be purged and packed. ... This is what the far right in this country learned from Viktor Orban."
— Steven Levitsky (11:22)

4. Understanding "Competitive Authoritarianism" (12:38, 13:29)

• Concept Definition:
  After the Cold War, outright dictatorship became less feasible globally. Instead, regimes that look democratic but have fundamentally rigged playing fields emerged—“competitive authoritarianism.”
  • Regular elections and legal opposition exist, “but the playing field is tilted … The incumbent weaponizes the state to punish rivals, critics, and to weaken opposition.” (13:53)
  • Levitsky believes the US has entered such a phase, not classic dictatorship: “It's not Stalinism, it's not Nazism, it's not fascism. But I think that's the authoritarianism we're going to get. In fact, I think we're there.” (15:24)

Notable Quote

"We shouldn't be looking for boots on the ground ... Instead, your concern ... is with a gradual slide into what you call competitive authoritarianism."
— Harry Litman, framing (12:42)

"That it is authoritarianism. It's more of a hybrid regime ... But I think that's the authoritarianism we're going to get. In fact, I think we're there."
— Steven Levitsky (15:24)

5. Trump’s Personal Vendettas vs. Strategic Authoritarianism (16:19, 17:00)

• Reprisal Prosecutions:
  The prosecution of Trump’s opponents (e.g., Comey, Letitia James) reflects personal vendettas rather than a broader ideological plan.
  • “If you were a cool-headed dictator targeting opponents for the future ... Jim Comey is probably not the first guy you’re going to go after. … I don't think [the revenge indictments] help Trump or the authoritarian project all that much.” (17:07)
  • Of greater concern: efforts to pursue the funders and supporters of civil society and the opposition, which would be a much deeper threat to fair competition.

Notable Quote

“What worries me much more ... is this effort to investigate and prosecute those who finance civil society in the opposition ... That tilts the playing field. That's really dangerous.”
— Steven Levitsky (18:02)

6. US vs. Brazil: Party System Differences (18:47, 19:29)

• Single-Leader Control Vulnerabilities:
  In the US, Trump’s total takeover of one of two parties leaves democracy especially exposed.
  • In Brazil, the multiplicity and weakness of parties meant that “politicians on the right can continue their political careers even if Bolsonaro ends up in prison ... they have more room to maneuver.”
  • In contrast, “Republican politicians have learned that they can't cross Donald Trump and live to tell about it.”

Notable Quote

“That's a huge difference. That's what's allowed the Brazilian political system to sideline Bolsonaro in a way that proved impossible here.”
— Steven Levitsky (21:44)

7. Prospects and “Exit Ramps” from Authoritarianism (22:40, 23:15)

• Advantages and Uncertainties:
  Despite pessimism, Levitsky identifies key factors that could yet rescue American democracy:
  • Competitive elections remain viable, as “it's really hard to steal elections.” (23:30)
  • Courts remain somewhat independent: “Is the Supreme Court the way I would like it to be? Not at all ... but it is not a packed court.” (24:11)
  • Civil society and public protest are still powerful.
  • A potential Democratic victory in 2026 could “weaken the aura of inevitability for Trump,” or public protest could tip the balance if Trump overreaches.

Notable Quotes

"Given the strength of civil society, given Trump's lack of popularity, given the viability of elections, given the independence of the courts, there are still multiple exit ramps. And my guess is we probably will find one of them."
— Steven Levitsky (26:14)

"We have such cultural ballast in favor of constitutional values ... if it really comes home to people that democracy is on the line, I think that really mobilizes the regular American people."
— Harry Litman (26:34)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Trump's Evolving Approach and Project 2025:
  02:10–05:04
• Public Reaction, Media Landscape, and Performative Authoritarianism:
  05:04–09:41
• Attacks on Universities and Civil Society:
  09:41–12:38
• “Competitive Authoritarianism” in the U.S.:
  12:38–15:40
• Personal Vendettas vs Strategic Authoritarianism:
  16:19–18:47
• US vs Brazil: Party System Comparison:
  18:47–21:56
• Prospects for Pulling Back from the Precipice:
  22:40–26:21

Memorable Moments

• Litman’s description of Levitsky as “the prophet of democratic decline—in both senses, teacher and predictor.” (00:41)
• Levitsky’s candid admission of how much worse things have gotten than he anticipated:
  “As bad as it is, and it’s worse than I anticipated when Trump got elected, and it continues to be worse.” (23:25)
• The analogy to the framers’ miscalculations about factions and the two-party system:
  “They didn’t anticipate the two-party system that’s really, along with the electoral college ... warped things.” (21:58)

Tone

• The conversation is both grave and forthright, grounded in hard political science but never dry, with both speakers candid about their anxieties and (cautious) hopes. Litman is energetic, often seeking hope or exits, while Levitsky is clinical but ultimately not fatalistic.

Summary

This episode delivers a rich and highly informed analysis of the nature of contemporary authoritarianism in the United States—its roots, its peculiarities, and, crucially, its limits. While the current Trump regime is “far more effective” and “performative” in its autocratic impulses than its first iteration, institutional resilience, civil society, and the peculiarities of American culture and history provide, in Levitsky’s words, “multiple exit ramps.” The situation is dire, but as both men agree, not hopeless—mobilization, cultural resistance, and the ongoing (if embattled) independence of courts and elections distinguish the US case, and may yet be decisive.