Talking Feds – "Blue Blizzard"

Host: Harry Litman
Guests: Emily Bazelon (NYT Magazine, Slate Political Gabfest), David Weigel (Semaphore), Rick Wilson (Lincoln Project)
Date: November 10, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode unpacks the stunning Democratic victories in the latest off-year elections—an event the panel dubs a "blue blizzard." The group dissects why the results surprised even optimistic Democrats, with a focus on key races in New Jersey, Virginia, New York, and Pennsylvania, the role of turnout, the impact of the ongoing government shutdown, and the evolving dynamics within both parties. The conversation navigates campaign messaging, the fallout from policy decisions like SNAP benefit delays, and the implications for 2026 and beyond.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Democratic Blowout: Initial Reactions

• New Jersey & Virginia as Bellwethers

  • Emily Bazelon highlights Mikie Sherrill's unexpectedly wide margin in New Jersey as her first “wow” moment:

    "She just really blew out her opponent. And so that suggested the Democrats had a wider margin than at least I expected." (04:33)

  • David Weigel reveals both campaigns’ pollsters were shocked by the landslides, noting even their best polls predicted only single-digit wins.

    "Everyone was legitimately surprised that I was talking to on Tuesday. Wait, we didn’t think this would happen. Why is this turnout so high?" (05:16)

• Impact of Trump’s Unpopularity

  • Rick Wilson argues Trump’s dominance hurt GOP candidates who could not distance themselves fast enough.

    "It’s a lot harder for people to say, 'Oh, well, maybe my Republican candidate will be able to disconnect from Trump.' ...Trump’s unpopularity and the deep unpopularity of both the shutdown and the tariffs, I think really helped both candidates at the close." (07:56)

2. Factors Driving Results

• Turnout & Voter Passion

  • High and passionate Democratic turnout was a recurring theme. Weigel posits COVID-era resistance movements and nationalized media have reactivated Democratic infrastructure, even in off-off-year cycles.

    "People were just hyper engaged in all these races in a way that it used to be harder to get people to care about." (10:27)

• Shifting Party Coalitions & the Trump Factor

  • There’s growing evidence of “Lincoln Project Republicans” (moderate/right-leaning voters) crossing over to vote Democratic in protest of Trump-era GOP chaos.

    "About 10% of Republicans in our model go over across the line... that environmental thing, that sense that we are in a bad spot economically...has started to add up." (27:02)

3. The New York City Race Spotlight

• Zoran Mamdani’s Record-Breaking Win

  • The panel discusses the unique political moment in NYC with Mamdani's progressive platform and massive turnout.

    "Mamdani got more votes than any candidate for mayor of New York since John Lindsay in 1965." (10:27)

• Challenges of Progressive Governance

  • Emily Bazelon is cautiously hopeful about Mamdani’s ability to deliver on promises, pointing to the mayor’s daunting managerial responsibilities:

    "So much of being a mayor is this gargantuan task of administration...are you going to bring in good people...fighting corruption...making sure the trains run on time?" (14:29)

  • Rick Wilson warns the job is less ideological, more about “a thousand small crises every day”:

    "Every single day is less ideological and more hands on...something is always going wrong somewhere." (15:52)

4. Down-Ballot and Local Races – Pennsylvania & Beyond

• Supreme Court & Judge Retentions: The Hidden Front

  • David Weigel highlights Democratic investments in low-turnout, high-impact court races in Pennsylvania and surprising Republican disengagement:

    "Democrats did very well, they won those by landslides...Republicans did not engage very much." (18:00)

    • Rick Wilson adds, "They expected Jeff Yass to put in 30 to 50 million dollars and he put in about a million." (19:02)

• GOP Weakness & Lack of Trump Involvement

  • Panelists speculate on Trump’s reluctance to campaign for potential losers, suggesting he "hates being associated with losers." (20:42)
  • The resulting lack of energy or funding hurt Republican efforts in key states.

5. Ballot Measures & Democratic Tactics

• California Redistricting

  • The group explores the successful partisan ballot measure, with Newsom flexing national ambitions while risking political backlash:

    "For Newsom taking this risk... he got a ton of chips from what he did." (21:31)

• "Golden Aura" Democrats

  • Newsom is described as evolving into a “street fighter”—a style resonating against Trump:

    "He did have a kind of patrician feel before, and now he’s definitely a street fighter. That’s what he wants to be." (22:41)

• Skepticism of National Viability for California Liberals

  • Bazelon notes, "I feel like we have seen this movie run before and it has not gone well for Democrats." (23:22)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the shutdown's optics:
  Rick Wilson:

  "While Donald Trump is having his degenerate Gatsby balls and is building a golden ballroom...this is a bad look. Their own pollsters are telling them, get out. Stop. You’ve got to end this." (42:08)

• On SNAP benefits and political miscalculation:
  Rick Wilson:

  "65% of the people who are on SNAP are in red congressional districts." (46:23)

  Emily Bazelon:

  "Aren’t they behind too, in terms of how they’re thinking about the recipients of the SNAP benefits? Like there’s this idea, this is a Democratic program and it’s only helping Democrats." (46:14)

• On the limits of anti-Trump messaging:
  Emily Bazelon:

  "I don’t think making it all about Trump was successful in 2024 and I think it’s a trap for the most part... for Democrats, prioritizing these questions of affordability, health care... that’s the lane." (37:04)

• On future dangers of Dem overreach:
  Rick Wilson:

  "If you get into the whole, please read my energy policy paper, appendix 4, section 14, eyes will glaze over." (35:19)

• On the coming GOP conflicts:
  Rick Wilson:

  "Trump is definitionally now a lame duck...that idea that Trump is this singular figure who will command everyone at the expense of their own political future, that is starting to crack." (28:45)

Notable Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Question | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------| | 04:33 | Emily Bazelon on New Jersey governor race as first blowout clue | | 05:16 | Weigel: Pollsters surprised by Democratic margins | | 07:56 | Wilson: Shutdown and Trump’s gravity hurt GOP candidates | | 10:27 | Weigel: Record turnout and nationalization of local elections | | 14:29 | Bazelon: Observations on NYC mayoral challenges | | 15:52 | Wilson: Brick-and-mortar crises of managing New York City | | 18:00 | Weigel: Pennsylvania Supreme Court, GOP disengagement | | 20:42 | Bazelon: Trump avoids “loser” races | | 21:31 | Weigel: Newsom’s redistricting play | | 22:41 | Litman: Newsom’s transformation into a "street fighter" | | 27:02 | Wilson: Vibes and environmental sense driving crossover votes | | 28:45 | Wilson: Cracks forming in MAGA unity | | 32:14 | Bazelon: Gorsuch's stunning turn in Supreme Court tariffs case | | 35:19 | Wilson: Policy and the danger of overcomplication | | 37:04 | Bazelon: Warnings against anti-Trump-only campaigns | | 42:08 | Wilson: Shutdown polling disastrous for GOP | | 46:23 | Wilson: SNAP recipients' political demographics |

Forward-Looking Questions

• Can Dems Consolidate Gains Without Overreach?

  • The panel worries about past tendencies to "squander" momentum with divisive or overly left policies and stresses the need to stay focused on basics like affordability, healthcare, and pragmatic solutions.

• Is Trump Losing Control Over the GOP?

  • Multiple references to cracks in Trump’s hold over the party (Ted Cruz, Marjorie Taylor Greene), but skepticism remains about whether these indicate real change.

• Shutdown Showdown

  • All agree the ongoing government shutdown’s human impact is politically devastating for the GOP, especially with the crucial holiday travel period approaching.
  • Wilson:

    "Trump is about to destroy Thanksgiving for 300 million Americans by blowing up the airport system and by starving people. The political impact...is one of those big symbolic moments where, as you said, it’s like Covid, but it is a domestic 9/11 at that point for people..." (43:08)

Podcast Tone and Style

• Thoughtful, sparring, and witty; the panelists challenge each other while maintaining a spirited, informed tone.
• Frequent asides and wry humor, e.g. the “Spirited Debate” wine segment, jokes about “claiming” multiple home states, and the whimsical closing "five words or fewer" round.
• Candid admissions from panelists about what surprised them or where they felt hope or skepticism.

Conclusion

The episode delivers an incisive, accessible look at why the Democrats' 2025 victories turned into a "blue blizzard," examining local, national, and policy-level factors. Panelists warn that success is fragile—hinging on disciplined messaging, the consequences of shutdown politics, and a keen understanding of which issues cut through with voters. The consensus: Ignore the daily chaos at your peril, but don’t underestimate the deep wells of anxiety and frustration shaping America’s electoral landscape.

(For a lighter moment, panelists cap things off with a playful riff: "The Janine Pirro" and “open faced mustard and relish” are suggested as possible Subway sandwich names for “Sandwich Guy” Sean Charles Dunn! (47:58))

For listeners and non-listeners alike, this recap offers an engaging, highly informative roadmap to the electoral and political convulsions gripping America in late 2025.