Podcast Summary: Talking Feds

Episode: Corruption, Chaos, and a Crooked Peace Plan in Ukraine

Date: January 1, 2026
Host: Harry Litman
Guests: Anne Applebaum (journalist, The Atlantic), Ruth Ben-Ghiat (historian, NYU)

Brief Overview

This two-part episode delves into the unraveling political and military situation in Ukraine, exposing the corrosive influence of business interests and corruption in the US approach to peace negotiations under Trump, and exploring parallels between democratic backsliding in the US and historical autocracies. In the first segment, Anne Applebaum offers critical analysis of a proposed US-backed Ukraine "peace plan" that heavily favors Russia and enriches Trump allies. The bonus segment features Ruth Ben-Ghiat, who contextualizes Trump-era authoritarian tactics, especially the empowerment of ICE and Project 2025, in the broader playbook of autocrats throughout history.

Part 1: Anne Applebaum on Ukraine, Corruption, and the Distorted Peace Plan

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "Peace" Plan for Ukraine: Substance and Implications

• The Deal's Terms:

  • Ukraine must give up both currently-occupied and unconquered territories to Russia.
  • No meaningful security guarantees—explicitly prohibits NATO membership, Western troops, and forces Ukraine to reduce its military.
  • Secret or "separate" US-Russia business negotiations reportedly embedded in the process, involving parties with direct business interests and ties to Trump.

• Applebaum's Critique:

  • The deal “ensures future war” by establishing a temporary ceasefire that allows Russia to regroup and prepare for a renewed assault (04:47).
  • Quote: “Just those two points alone mean that we could get maybe some kind of ceasefire for a while, and that would prepare the ground for the next war, which is what happened in 2014...” — Applebaum, 06:35

2. Business Interests and Corruption in Negotiations

• Key negotiators (Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner on the US side; Kirill Dmitriev for Russia) are businesspeople, not diplomats (08:38–10:31).
• Trump allies and associates stand to profit personally, blurring lines between private gain and US national interest.
• Quote: "It's a very ugly document. It's ugly from the Ukrainian point of view, from the European point of view, really from the American point of view, because it makes American policy look as if it were beholden to some business people who are friends with Trump." — Applebaum, 07:41

3. US Pullback & European Response

• US financial and military support for Ukraine is nearly gone; now mostly European-provided, with some critical US technology sold to Europe (11:12–12:52).
• The US role has degenerated from coalition leader to arms merchant, prioritizing profit over principle or alliances.

4. Ukrainian Domestic Realities: Political Limits

• Resistance is likely: Zelensky cannot viably concede non-conquered territory, as the army and broader population would not accept it (13:43–14:42).
• Ukraine’s military is decentralized and may not follow a politically damaging order, rendering the plan potentially unworkable.

5. The Evolving Battlefield

• Despite high Russian casualties (26,000 in a month), the Russian military advances by sheer attrition, indifferent to losses, leveraging drone warfare and feeding propaganda (15:20–18:23).

6. Corruption: Ukraine vs. Russia vs. the US

• Ukraine’s Operation Midas anti-corruption investigation is internally led, showing democratic functioning and an intent to differentiate from Russian-style kleptocracy (19:14–24:18).
• Russia remains a mafia state, with no true anti-corruption efforts, whereas Ukraine’s efforts—despite setbacks—represent progress.
• US side: The intertwining of business and policy among Trump allies resembles emerging kleptocracy.
• Quote: "This is a different kind of corruption. It's a kind of grand scale corruption of a kind we haven't had in the United States, at least in modern times. And it does resemble Putin's Russia." — Applebaum, 24:49

7. US National Security Strategy Shift

• Recent doctrine explicitly rejects prioritizing democracy or human rights, emphasizing economic self-interest and commercial gain (26:19–27:14).
• Historical context: Retreat from alliances and moral clarity could precipitate a global realignment away from the US, especially in Asia.
• Quote: "Once the US isn't that [reliable], then I think you'll see a lot of alliances...rot from the inside. And you'll begin to see shifts away from the United States and alliances against the United States." — Applebaum, 30:28

8. Democracy at Risk in America

• Applebaum warns of ongoing Republican efforts to rig elections and reshape the playing field to entrench minority rule (32:43–34:27).
• Risks of weaponizing state powers, manipulating media, and “changing the system so that they don’t lose ever” (34:16).

Notable Quotes

• On the “peace” plan:

  "The document says they want the Ukrainians to give that up... What it means in practice is that Ukraine couldn't defend itself in the future."
  — Anne Applebaum (05:06)

• On US business interests:

  "It's ugly from the Ukrainian point of view, from the European point of view, really from the American point of view, because it makes American policy look as if it were beholden to some business people who are friends with Trump."
  — Anne Applebaum (07:41)

• On the US's shifting role:

  "The US's most important role in the Biden years was as the motivator and leader... We're not doing that anymore. So the US has already pulled back 90% of what it did before."
  — Anne Applebaum (12:43)

[Approx. 37:00] Part 2: Ruth Ben-Ghiat — The Domestic Authoritarian Playbook

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. ICE as Parallel Security Force

• Historical autocrats build loyal, lawless paramilitary forces (e.g., Mussolini's Militia) to enforce power and hedge against the regular military (38:26–44:54).
• Trump-era empowerment and expansion of ICE closely parallels these tactics:
  • Budget enhancements far exceeding most countries’ militaries.
  • Officers permitted to customize attire, mask identities; cultivates intimidation and loyalty.
• Quote: “ICE could be used by the autocrat, in this case Trump, to protect himself, that ICE was being groomed to be a force...loyal only to Trump. That’s what makes this doubly dangerous.” — Ruth Ben-Ghiat (44:05)

2. Autocratic Legalism and the Erosion of Democracy

• Modern autocrats often avoid open coups; instead, hollow out democracies through pseudo-legal means ("autocratic legalism").
• Examples: Jailing opposition (Erdogan), manipulating elections, creating non-state thugs (Hungary, Turkey, Brazil’s Bolsonaro) (47:09–49:48).
• Trump’s use of loyalist mobs (Jan 6) and plans for ICE mirror new trends of blurring state and non-state actors.

3. Suppression of Dissent and Cowed Civil Society

• Not just state force but also chilling effect on civil society (media, business dissent suppressed, corporate self-censorship).
• Ongoing intimidation (“people are afraid,” “cow or suppress dissent in civil society”) — (50:13).

4. Speed and Severity of Institutional Breakdown

• The pace of U.S. decline toward authoritarianism under Project 2025 is unmatched even by historical autocrats (52:05).
• Ruth: “If we look at the first nine months of Putin...it doesn’t resemble the speed and severity of what is going on in the United States.” (52:32)

5. International Alliances & The Authoritarian Axis

• Trump’s explicit preference for deals with autocrats (Russia, China, North Korea) over traditional democratic allies.
• The US is “now an ally of autocrats and is doing everything possible to wreck democracies around the world” — Ben-Ghiat (56:52).
• This signals a seismic shift ("sea change") — reducing the US to a regional power, ceding Asian dominance to China (58:46).

6. Pathways to Resistance

• Ruth remains “optimistic”: public awareness and “moral outrage” growing; resistance may be decentralized, but turnout and mobilization are key (59:37–61:52).
• Quote: “There’s a kind of grassroots moral outrage that is growing, and that’s really good...I think it’s really important to get people to vote, to help register people to vote.” — Ruth Ben-Ghiat (60:29)

Notable Quotes

• On ICE’s function:

  “So they become more like a paramilitary or a secret police in their function...they would be loyal to Trump. And so in the event the military or somebody else wanted to depose Trump, ICE could be used to protect him.”
  — Ruth Ben-Ghiat (43:52)

• On U.S. global realignment:

  “The United States is now an ally and an ally of autocrats and is doing everything possible to wreck democracies to defend around the world...and leaving Asia to Xi, leaving Europe.”
  — Ruth Ben-Ghiat (57:12, 58:31)

• On the scale of domestic breakdown:

  “It doesn’t resemble the speed and severity of what is going on in the United States...our situation resembles less somebody [who] came in by election and more...after a coup. That’s how fast it’s been.”
  — Ruth Ben-Ghiat (52:32)

Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment / Key Topic | |--------------|----------------------------------------------------------| | 04:47–08:04 | Anne Applebaum breaks down Ukraine "peace plan" | | 08:38–10:31 | Business interests: Kushner, Witkoff, and corruption | | 14:44–15:20 | Ukraine's military capacity and battlefield status | | 19:14–24:18 | Operation Midas anti-corruption probe in Ukraine | | 24:49–25:56 | Corruption: US vs Russia vs Ukraine | | 26:19–31:24 | US national security doctrine’s departure from democracy | | 32:43–34:27 | Democracy at risk: Republican rigging and entrenchment | | 38:24–44:54 | Ruth Ben-Ghiat: ICE as paramilitary for Trump | | 47:09–49:48 | Modern autocratic strategies: legalism & "bespoke" armies| | 52:05–54:33 | Institutional breakdown speed; moral collapse | | 56:52–58:46 | US realignment with autocrats, global implications | | 59:37–61:52 | "What is to be done?"—Paths to resistance |

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Applebaum on future conflict:

  "It doesn't end the war in a way that gives Ukraine some kind of stable base to build from...without some kind of security guarantee...it's hard to see how Ukraine becomes a viable state." (06:22)

• Ben-Ghiat on ICE:

  "The fact they've been so empowered that their budget will be increased to be more...than the full militaries of many sovereign nations...It's an excuse to build an infrastructure of repression..." (39:57–41:06)

• Applebaum on US corruption resembling Russia's:

  "It's a kind of grand scale corruption of a kind we haven't had in the United States, at least in modern times. And it does resemble Putin's Russia." (24:49)

• Ben-Ghiat on authoritarian realignment:

  “The US has been receding its footprint as a global power. It will become perhaps more of a regional power, interfering more in Latin America, leaving Asia to Xi, leaving Europe..." (58:31)

Concluding Thoughts

• The episode offers a sobering, incisive account of the current moment: Ukraine is being pressured into an untenable peace, business and personal interests corrupt US policy, and American democratic norms are under systemic threat.
• Both Applebaum and Ben-Ghiat highlight not just the dangers but the need for democratic engagement, vigilance, and solidarity—both in the US and abroad.

For further reading and updates, follow:

• Anne Applebaum’s Atlantic articles & Substack, Open Letters From Anne Applebaum
• Ruth Ben-Ghiat’s Substack, Lucid

[End of Summary]