Podcast Summary

Podcast: Talking Feds
Host: Harry Litman
Guest: Bob Kagan
Episode: How Trump Blew Up the World Order
Date: March 26, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode features a deep-dive conversation between Harry Litman and distinguished foreign policy historian Bob Kagan, centered on the end of the U.S.-dominated world order that shaped global politics for nearly eight decades. The discussion builds on Kagan's recent article in The Atlantic, "Every Nation for Itself," and expands its ideas to current geopolitical crises, especially the ongoing Iran war. Kagan outlines how Trump's foreign policy has upended longstanding alliances and institutions, returning the world to an era of great power competition and instability—with dire consequences for America's position and global peace.

Key Discussion Points

The American-Led Order: Origins and Unique Foundations

[02:12 - 06:41]

• Post-WWII Creation
  The U.S.—in concert with loyal allies—created a stable global order designed to prevent another world war. America provided security in Europe and Asia, with former great powers (Germany, Japan, UK, France) trusting the U.S. with their defense, an unparalleled historic arrangement.

• Two-fold Trust
  Allies trusted the U.S. both to protect them and not to exploit them:

  • "That system was very much based on trust ... the United States would not abuse this overwhelming power to take advantage of its allies." (Kagan, [05:15])

• Unprecedented Prosperity
  The arrangement delivered “the greatest period of economic prosperity in human history,” spread democracy, and prevented wars between major powers.

The Trump Shift: Dismantling the Grand Bargain

[06:41 - 09:23]

• Trump’s Disruption
  Trump’s presidency marked a decisive break, as he “came into office intending to end that America’s support for that order. And he has, in fact, ended that support.” (Kagan, [05:58])

• Demanding Allies Fend for Themselves
  The U.S. stopped guaranteeing allied security and turned to "bullying" tactics: tariffs for financial gain, transactional demands.

• Consequences
  Kagan warns, “The United States itself is going to be much weaker, much less influential, much more subject to crises than it was even during the Cold War.” ([06:36])

Why Allies Relied on the U.S. for Decades

[06:41 - 09:23]

• Germany & Japan as Examples
  Initially forced after defeat, these nations chose not to rearm—even when capable—because U.S. leadership “ensured their prosperity.”

• Resilience Despite Disagreements
  Even substantial disagreements (“the Vietnam war was very unpopular in Europe”) did not dissolve the alliance due to deep-seated trust.

Europe and Asia in the “Every Nation for Itself” Era

[09:23 - 18:03]

• Return to Classic Great Power Politics
  Without U.S. security guarantees, countries “have to find some way to guarantee their basic security ... to rearm and then re-engage in typical, normal historical geopolitical competition.” ([10:22])

• Immediate Fallout in Ukraine and with Iran
  Trump’s stance weakens Europe vis-a-vis Russian aggression; U.S. shifts resources away from Ukraine (Patriot missiles diverted, oil sanctions on Russia lifted).
  Europe faces "the biggest existential threat since the Cold War, possibly since World War II" with little U.S. support.
  In Asia, Japan suffers from surging oil prices and feels strategic exposure as U.S. redeploys forces to the Middle East.

• Fracturing Strategic Focus
  The U.S. abandons its traditional focus on Europe and East Asia, now “expending all of our efforts on a region [the Middle East] which … is definitely secondary to these other strategic areas.” (Kagan, [17:40])

Notable Quote:

“It used to be the case again that America was focused on the two strategic theaters of East Asia and the Western Pacific on one side and Europe on the other ... we are basically abandoning those two regions from a strategic perspective.”
—Bob Kagan [17:31]

America’s Economic Power and Global Influence at Risk

[19:19 - 23:50]

• Basing Rights Erode
  Allied willingness to host U.S. forces—central to American power projection—now in question:

  • “If we’re not protecting them, what are the bases for from their point of view?” (Kagan, [20:12])

• U.S. Financial Dominance Not Guaranteed
  The U.S. dollar’s privileged position and global trade standing are also imperiled. Allies and rivals alike are “trying to set up new trade patterns which don’t rely on the United States,” including financial systems outside U.S. sway.

• Global Turn to China
  Even erstwhile close partners, like Canada, are pivoting toward deals with China. Countries caught in the Iran war may invite China in for protection, further eroding U.S. leadership.

Notable Quote:

“If China becomes a major power in the Persian Gulf, then we’re living in a different world from the American point of view than we were living in before.”
—Bob Kagan [23:31]

Israel and the Uncertainties of America’s Pivot

[23:50 - 27:50]

• Israel’s Position
  Even Israel—possibly the biggest immediate beneficiary of Trump’s Middle Eastern policy—faces future insecurity if U.S. support falters. Kagan notes Israel’s regional dominance is sustainable only with U.S. backing, especially if Iran survives as a threat.

• Gulf States Feel Exposed
  Gulf allies, theoretically protected by the U.S., now suffer most in the Iran war and feel abandoned:

  • “What was demonstrated is that the United States, largely at the bidding of Israel ... triggered a conflict on behalf of Israel for which the Gulf states are paying the largest price.” ([27:28])

The Paradox of Victory and Sustainability

[27:50 - 28:50]

• Two Uncomfortable Paths
  It’s one thing to “get the victory, it’s another to sustain the victory.” Whether the U.S. remains engaged post-conflict or simply “declares victory and goes home” is central to allies’ calculation.

Will the World Order Return if Trump Leaves?

The Limits to Reversal

[28:50 - 32:53]

• Fragile Trust Cannot Be Easily Restored
  Kagan draws historical analogies: U.S. abandonment post-WWI led to WWII; U.S. commitment post-WWII rebuilt trust—but only with massive effort and changed circumstances.

• Political Volatility Is Now the Norm
  The precedent of electing Trump twice breeds deep uncertainty among allies—even a future Democratic president “can’t guarantee a return to consensus or reestablish overnight trust.”

• The Post-1945 Era Won’t Return
  America’s “miracle” of postwar leadership—rooted in broad trust and unique consensus—is “over.”

  • “The idea that we can return to the sort of miracle that existed after 1945 and persisted for 80 years, I really do think those days are over.” ([32:40])

Notable Quote:

“Once you’ve lost the trust that held the Grand Bargain together ... it’s not so easy to restore it overnight.”
—Bob Kagan [29:50]

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “The United States itself is going to be much weaker, much less influential, much more subject to crises than it was even during the Cold War.” —Bob Kagan [06:36]
• “It’s very clear now that the United States is being very sort of self-interested ... and is not thinking about a longer term.” —Bob Kagan [21:18]
• “If we’re not protecting them, what are the bases for from their point of view?” —Bob Kagan [20:12]
• “The idea that we can return to the sort of miracle that existed after 1945 and persisted for 80 years, I really do think those days are over.” —Bob Kagan [32:40]

Suggested Sections & Timestamps

• [02:12] The foundations and inner workings of the U.S.-dominated world order
• [06:41] Why U.S. allies trusted America for 80 years
• [09:23] The dangers for Europe and Asia with U.S. withdrawal
• [19:19] How U.S. global influence and bases are at risk
• [23:50] Impact on Israel and Gulf allies, and China’s growing role
• [28:50] Is it possible to easily “put things back together again”?
• [32:40] Why the post-1945 consensus is not coming back

Tone and Style

The conversation is clear, incisive, and intellectually direct—Kagan lays out historical context, frank predictions, and strategic analyses without euphemism. Litman asks pointed questions, seeking to pin down the real-world consequences and exploring the emotional and material cost for Americans and allies alike.

Conclusion

Kagan’s diagnosis is stark: the American era of international trust, security guarantees, and unrivaled influence—what he calls the "Grand Bargain"—is over, undone by Trump’s America First policies and a broader national mood. The world, he warns, is reverting to an older—and more dangerous—norm of suspicious, armed rivalry. Even if Trump is succeeded by a more internationalist president, Kagan doubts the U.S. can easily rebuild the trust and consensus that undergirded more than 75 years of relative peace and prosperity.