In the latest episode of “Talking Trade,” Monex USA Chief Economist John Min says tariffs are driving up prices on imported goods, contributing to inflation.

“If it wasn’t for tariffs, I think we may be close to 2%, which is our goal, but we’re stuck at 3%, so there’s an effect,” he said.

He noted the U.S. Department of the Treasury is currently collecting $30 billion per month, adding U.S. companies are the ones footing the bill.

“Whether they’re passing on the tariffs to the consumers … about 50% of the cost is being passed on, and companies are absorbing with their margin, we just don’t know how long they could last doing that,” he said.

If that’s the case, he expects to see “the full effect” of tariffs hit prices within the next six or seven months.

“I see an almost divided economy, to a certain extent … the bigger retailers are able to absorb it better, because they have the scale, they can negotiate, they can find alternative suppliers,” he said. “It’s the smaller businesses, they’re really getting hurt because cash flow is very thin anyway.”

While he’s optimistic about future U.S. economic growth, Min raised concerns about a “disconnect” between that growth and labor market trends.

“As I describe the microeconomic conditions, I’m very concerned,” he said. “Because we are growing, but we’re not creating jobs. And in fact, I’ve never seen this type of disconnect between growth rate and the employment numbers.”

The discussion also explores potential impacts of AI on productivity and related investment trends, supply chain changes and more on the international trade landscape for 2026.

“Overall, international trade we expect to be, I don’t want to say rosy, but still positive, still growing,” Min said.

Talking Trade is hosted by E.M Wasylik Associates Managing Director Ken Wasylik and M.E. Dey & Co. President and Managing Director Sandi Siegel.