Podcast Summary: Tangle Episode – "Biden Authorizes Ukraine to Use Long-Range Weapons in Russia"
Release Date: November 19, 2024
Host: Isaac Saul

Introduction

In this compelling episode of Tangle, host Isaac Saul, along with guest host Will Kabak, delves deep into President Joe Biden's recent authorization allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons within Russian territory. This pivotal decision marks a significant escalation in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and has sparked widespread debate across the political spectrum. The episode provides thorough analysis, incorporating diverse perspectives from both the left and the right, and includes expert insights on the potential ramifications of this move.

Quick Hits: Current Affairs Overview (04:15 - 06:08)

John Law begins with a series of brief news updates:

1. Aid Looting in Gaza: Approximately 100 trucks carrying food and aid for Palestinians in Gaza were looted, marking one of the worst aid losses since the war's onset.

2. Political Nominations: President Elect Donald Trump announced nominations for Secretary of Transportation and Commerce, selecting former Representative Sean Duffy and businessman Howard Lutnick, respectively.

3. Justice Department vs. Google: The Department of Justice plans to compel Google to sell its Chrome browser, following allegations of illegal monopolization of the search market.

4. Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy: Spirit Airlines has filed for bankruptcy after incurring losses exceeding $2.5 billion since 2020.

5. E. Coli Outbreak: An E. coli outbreak linked to now-recalled organic carrots has resulted in one death and 15 hospitalizations across 18 U.S. states.

Main Discussion: Biden's Authorization to Ukraine (06:08 - 18:40)

Will Kabak introduces the main topic: President Biden's decision to permit Ukraine to deploy U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) within Russian territory. This decision, reluctantly made by Biden after months of resistance, allows Ukraine to strike deep into Russia for the first time, significantly altering the dynamics of the conflict.

Key Points Discussed:

• Authorization and Usage: President Biden authorized the use of ATACMS, which have a range of 40 to 190 miles, enabling Ukraine to target Russian military assets located deep within its territory. This move follows Ukraine's first reported use of ATACMS in the Bryantsk region (Timestamp: [05:40]).

• Russian Response: In retaliation, Russia has updated its nuclear doctrine, stating that any conventional attack supported by a nuclear-armed nation will be considered a joint attack. Additionally, the Kremlin has hinted at increased sabotage and cyber operations against NATO allies (Timestamp: [06:27]).

• Military Aid: The Pentagon confirmed plans to issue $7.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine before Biden's term ends (Timestamp: [06:27]).

• Strategic Implications: The decision coincides with the 1,000-day mark of the Russian invasion, highlighting the protracted nature of the conflict and the strategic maneuvers by both sides (Timestamp: [06:27]).

Perspectives from the Political Spectrum

The Left's Viewpoint

The left generally supports Biden's decision but critiques the timing and potential escalation risks.

• Financial Times: Describes Biden's approval as "overdue" but suggests it would have been more effective had it come earlier and with fewer restrictions (Timestamp: [09:14]).

• The Guardian: Warns that Biden's move could trigger increased Russian retaliation through sabotage and cyberattacks, further complicating the war and hindering peace negotiations (Timestamp: [09:14]).

• CNN (Nick Patton Walsh): Argues that while the decision escalates the war, the limited supply of ATACMS may not significantly alter the conflict's trajectory. However, it raises the stakes for the incoming Trump administration, potentially complicating efforts to end the war (Timestamp: [09:14]).

The Right's Viewpoint

The right holds a mixed stance, with some criticizing the delay while others believe it limits Trump's options.

• Atlantic Council (John E. Herbst): Criticizes the late authorization, suggesting that earlier deployment of ATACMS could have inflicted greater damage on Russian forces. Herbst emphasizes that the decision constrains Trump's ability to negotiate a swift end to the war (Timestamp: [09:14]).

• Mark Episkopos: Argues that Biden's decision handcuffs Trump's future policy options by maintaining continuity in Ukraine support, thus prolonging U.S. and NATO entanglement in the conflict (Timestamp: [09:14]).

• Jennifer Kavanaugh: Labels the decision as "strategically unwise," citing increased risks of Russian escalation and questioning the operational necessity of ATACMS in altering the war's course (Timestamp: [09:14]).

Isaac Saul's Analysis (18:40 - 24:46)

Will Kabak presents Isaac Saul's nuanced take on Biden's decision:

1. Biden's Intentions: Saul dismisses theories that Biden aims to constrain Trump's policy, arguing that Biden's consistent pattern of deliberative support for Ukraine is genuine and not politically motivated (Timestamp: [18:40]).

2. Impact of ATACMS: While acknowledging that ATACMS may not be game-changers now, Saul believes that even limited use can influence the war's dynamics and potentially pave the way for peace negotiations (Timestamp: [18:40]).

3. Reactions to Authorization:

   • Response to Russian Escalation: Biden's decision is seen as a direct reaction to Russia's recruitment of North Korean troops, aiming to deter further foreign involvement (Timestamp: [18:40]).
   • Delayed Support for Ukraine: Saul criticizes the delayed authorization, suggesting that earlier deployment could have shortened the war or strengthened Ukraine's position significantly (Timestamp: [18:40]).
   • Prolonged Conflict Risks: The decision may lead to a more extended and hazardous war, with increased covert operations and cyber threats from Russia against NATO allies (Timestamp: [18:40]).

Isaac's Conclusion: Saul contends that while the authorization comes late, it remains a necessary step to bolster Ukraine's defenses. He laments the prolonged nature of the conflict, attributing it to cautious U.S. policies that have inadvertently favored Russia's strategy of attrition. Saul emphasizes the need for more decisive and timely support to effectively counter Russian aggression and move towards a resolution (Timestamp: [18:40]).

Listener Question: Elon Musk and Election Disinformation (26:01 - 28:48)

Steven from Gallatin, Tennessee raises concerns about Elon Musk's influence on social media, specifically regarding the spread of disinformation about Republican talking points and Democratic impersonation campaigns. He cites a Morning Brew article alleging that Musk has flooded platforms with falsehoods about election fraud and immigration to sway voter opinions.

Isaac Saul's Response:

• Confirmation of Claims: Saul acknowledges the veracity of these claims, detailing Musk's role in disseminating misleading information on X (formerly Twitter), including false allegations of election fraud and immigration issues (Timestamp: [26:01]).

• Specific Instances:

  • Musk's false claims about Kamala Harris being the "ultimate diversity hire" and his unfounded accusations against FEMA regarding disaster aid (Timestamp: [26:01]).
  • Funding of a super PAC that targeted Republicans with disinformation campaigns against Democratic candidates (Timestamp: [26:01]).

• Impact Assessment: While Saul does not believe Musk's actions decisively swayed the election outcome, he highlights Musk's significant online influence and the broader issue of misinformation in political discourse (Timestamp: [26:01]).

• Community Engagement: Saul mentions actively correcting Musk's false information and addressing listener queries about the disinformation campaigns, emphasizing the importance of combating false narratives (Timestamp: [26:01]).

Under the Radar: Pennsylvania Supreme Court Ruling (28:48 - 32:41)

John Law covers a lesser-publicized story regarding the Pennsylvania Supreme Court's recent decision on the Senate election between Senator Bob Casey and Dave McCormick:

• Court Ruling: The court declared that some county election officials had violated laws by counting ballots lacking proper signatures or dates, despite previous attempts to invalidate such ballots (Timestamp: [28:48]).

• Repercussions: This led to an automatic recount due to the narrow margin of victory (0.5% of total votes). While McCormick is expected to retain his win, the ruling underscores ongoing election integrity issues (Timestamp: [28:48]).

• Media Coverage: National Review and other major outlets have reported on this development, highlighting the contentious nature of the election process in Pennsylvania (Timestamp: [28:48]).

Numbers Section (32:41 - 32:41)

Key Statistics:

• Conflict Duration: 1,000 days since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

• Casualties: Approximately 1 million Ukrainians and Russians have been killed or wounded as of September 2024.

• Troop Deaths: Estimated 80,000 Ukrainian and 200,000 Russian troop deaths by September.

• Weapon Range: ATACMS missiles have a range of up to 190 miles, compared to the previously sent High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) with a 50-mile range.

• Targets Within Range: Analysis indicates 245 Russian military and paramilitary objects are within the range of Ukrainian ATACMS, including 16 air bases (Timestamp: [32:41]).

Have a Nice Day: USPS Forever Stamps (32:41 - 33:11)

The episode concludes with a lighter segment highlighting the United States Postal Service's upcoming forever stamps for 2025, including one honoring the late Betty White. Celebrated for her contributions to entertainment and advocacy for animals, Betty White's legacy is commemorated in these special stamps (Timestamp: [32:41]).

Conclusion

This episode of Tangle provides an in-depth analysis of President Biden's strategic decision to authorize Ukraine's use of long-range weapons within Russia, examining the multifaceted reactions and potential implications for the ongoing conflict. By presenting balanced perspectives from both political ends and incorporating expert commentary, the podcast offers listeners a comprehensive understanding of a pivotal moment in international relations.

For more detailed discussions and exclusive content, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to Tangle's newsletter and consider premium membership options available through tangle.com and tangledmedia.supercast.com.

Notable Quotes:

• Will Kabak (04:15): "We're going to be talking about President Biden's authorization to Ukraine to use long-range missiles provided by the US in Russian territory."

• John Law (28:48): "The race between Casey and McCormick has gone to an automatic recount, triggered when a candidate's margin of victory is 0.5% or less of total votes cast under Pennsylvania law."

• Isaac Saul (18:40): "What we've done instead is create exactly the kind of war of attrition that Russia is built to win."

• Mark Episkopos (09:14): "The decision was preceded by weeks of public insistence by White House spokesman John Kirby and others that ATACMS strikes inside Russia offered limited operational value."

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