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Ryan Reynolds
Hey, I'm Ryan Reynolds. Recently I asked Mint Mobile's legal team if big wireless companies are allowed to raise prices due to inflation. They said yes. And then when I asked if raising prices technically violates those onerous two year contracts, they said what the are you talking about, you insane Hollywood? So to recap, we're cutting the price of mint unlimited from $30 a month to just $15 a month. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch $45 upfront.
Isaac Saul
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Will Kabak
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of our take. I am a special guest host today. My name's Will Kabak, I'm one of Tangle's editors and I'm filling in for our founder Isaac Saul who is in a business boot camp this morning. So I'll be taking the mic reading off Isaac's take and our listener question and helping John run the show here on the pod. Before we jump in, a quick heads up for our listeners. Some of you may not know this, but if you're ever keen on reading Tangle, we also have a newsletter. It's our core product. It's the first piece of content that we put out and it comes out a couple of hours before the podcast each day around noon Eastern. There's been a little bit of confusion about the podcast and the newsletter, so we just want to make it clear right now the podcast and newsletter pre premium memberships are separate subscriptions. And look, we recognize this is inconvenient for folks and we're currently working on bundling the subscriptions together so you can manage them all in one place and that'll hopefully be done by the end of the year. If you have a newsletter and a podcast subscription already, no need to do anything. We will handle that bundling process for you. Again, just a quick heads up in case there's been any confusion as we've rolled out the premium podcast membership. In today's episode, we're going to be talking about President Biden's authorization to Ukraine to use long range missiles provided by the US In Russian territory. It was a decision that Biden has resisted up until this point and it was reported over the weekend. And now it's generating a ton of commentary about the state of the war from military analysts and commentators from across the political spectrum. We're going to get into what this means for the war, whether it'll have an actual impact on the realities on the ground, how it could impact the transition between the Biden and the Trump administrations, and generally where the war stands as we hit the 1000 day mark since Russia invaded. For now, I'm going to hand it off to John to do quick hits and the introduction and then I'll be back to read Isaac's take.
John Law
Thanks, Will. Sounding good, my man. Glad to have you on the mic and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, approximately 100 trucks carrying food and aid for Palestinians in Gaza were looted over the weekend. Two United nations agencies responsible for transporting the aid said it was one of the worst aid losses since the start of the war. Separately, the United nations imposed sanctions on the Israeli settler group Amana, accusing it of perpetrating violence in the West Bank. Number two, President Elect Donald Trump announced he is nominating former Representative Sean Duffy to serve as Secretary of Transportation. Duffey has been a Fox Business anchor since leaving Congress in 2019. Separately, Trump reportedly plans to nominate businessman Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce. Number three, the Justice Department will ask a federal judge to force Google to sell its Chrome web browser following the same judge's August ruling that Google illegally monopolized the search market. Number four, Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy. The airline, which will continue to operate during the bankruptcy process has lost more than $2.5 billion since the start of 20 and number five, an E. Coli outbreak linked to now recalled organic Carrots has killed one person and hospitalized 15 others across 18 US states.
President Joe Biden
Ukraine used a US missile system to strike deep into Russian territory for the first time on Tuesday. That's according to Moscow, which said Kyiv deployed what the US calls the Army Tactical Missile System or ATACMS. ATACMS have a range of 40 to 190 miles. For most of the year. Washington has instructed Kyiv not to use American weapons to strike inside Russian territory, but President Joe Biden gave approval just this week for Ukraine to use the ATACMS missiles for such strikes.
Will Kabak
President Joe Biden giving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy the green light to fire long range weaponry deep into Russian territory as 11,000 North Korean troops join forces with Russian troops so the Russian Ukraine issue likely to be key focus at the G20 annual summit happening right now.
John Law
On Sunday, President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use US supplied long range weaponry called Army Tactical Missile Systems or atacms to strike within Russian territory. Then on Tuesday morning, Ukraine used the ATACMS for the first time, reportedly striking a Russian arsenal in the Bryantsk region 70 miles from the Ukrainian border. Additionally, the Pentagon confirmed that the White House intends to issue $7.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine through presidential drawdown authority before the end of Biden's term in January. The news comes as the Russian Ukraine war hits its 1,000th day on Tuesday. The US made missiles Biden approved have a range of almost 200 miles. Until now, Ukraine's attacks beyond Russia's border have been limited to non US made and less lethal weapons. Like drones, ATACMs have both long range and greater destructive capabilities. Ukraine's military leaders have lobbied the White House for permission to use the missiles for months, but Biden had been hesitant to grant approval until now. Reports from the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal indicate that Biden changed his mind after Russian President Vladimir Putin recruited thousands of North Korean troops to the war. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 11,000 North Korean troops have joined Russia to fight in Kursk, which Ukraine has been partially occupying since a surprise offensive in August. The authorization comes a day after Russia carried out one of the largest missile and drone attacks of the war, targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure with 120 missiles and 90 drones. The Ukrainian military reported that it had intercepted 104 missiles and 42 drones. However, the strike still inflicted significant damage with state run energy operator Ukrenigo, saying it would limit electricity supply for businesses to conserve energy. Russian attacks throughout the war have destroyed 65% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure. On Monday, the Kremlin warned that the ATACMS authorization would add fuel to the fire of the war, while Russia's UN Ambassador Vasilyna Benzia told a UN Security Council meeting that European leaders are dragging not just their countries but the entire Europe into large scale escalation with drastic consequences. Shortly before Ukraine strikes on Tuesday, Russia updated its nuclear doctrine to state that any conventional attack supported by a nuclear armed nation will be considered a joint attack. Since winning the U.S. election, President elect Trump has expressed a desire to bring the war to a close, taking calls with both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. In a call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sunday, Putin told the NATO leader that his coalition needs to accept new territorial realities. Today we'll get into what the left and the right think about Biden's decision and the latest in the war and then Isaac's take.
President Joe Biden
We'll be right back after this quick break.
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Ryan Reynolds
Hey, I'm Ryan Reynolds. Recently I asked Mint Mobile's legal team if big wireless companies are allowed to raise prices due to inflation. They said yes. And then when I asked if raising prices technically violates those onerous two year contracts, they said, what the are you talking about, you insane Hollywood? So to recap, we're cutting the price of mint unlimited from $30 a month to just $15 a month. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch $45 upfront.
Isaac Saul
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John Law
All right, first up, let's start with what the left is saying. The left is supportive of Biden's decision, but many argue it came too late. Some worry that the move will heighten tensions between Russia and every NATO country. Others say the war has entered a new chapter as Trump prepares to take office. The Financial Times editorial board wrote about Biden's overdue missile consent for Ukraine from heavy artillery to fighter jets. Each shift by the Biden administration to provide Ukraine with more potent weaponry has traced a similar path. Months of soul searching about possible Russian escalation are followed by a belated go ahead, the board said. So it is with Washington's consent for Kyiv to launch strikes into Russia using US Made long range missiles. This is welcome, but would have been better if it had come sooner and with fewer restrictions. Permission reportedly extends for now only to the Ukrainian occupied Kursk region of Russia. It should also be only one element of a broader effort by America and its allies to bolster Ukraine's position on the battlefield before Donald Trump's inauguration as president. Moscow has engaged in loud saber rattling in the hope of deterring Washington, including revising its nuclear doctrine. Any boost to Ukraine's capabilities risks Russian response. Moscow may now, as it has hinted, arm US Adversaries such as Houthi rebels or step up covert sabotage elsewhere, but it is unlikely to jump several rungs up the ladder of escalation at once, the board wrote. The task for Ukraine's allies in coming weeks is to enable Kyiv to withstand new onslaughts from Moscow, put it in stronger position for talks and increase the incentive for Russia's leader to accept a deal that would preserve Ukraine's viability. In the Guardian, Simon Tisdal warned Putin will retaliate for Biden's decision. Biden's last gasp decision to permit Ukraine to fire Western made long range missiles at military targets deep inside Russian territory runs the risk of triggering a sharp increase in retaliatory sabotage, such as cyber and arson attacks on Britain and its European NATO partners, Tisdal said. Amid grinding Russian ground offenses, EU feuding and Donald Trump's unpropitious reelection, the war has reached a critical juncture. Militarily and diplomatically. The outcome is in the balance as the scales momentarily tip towards more death and destruction, then back towards some form of Trump imposed land for peace sellout. Direct overt Russian armed retaliation against European military bases or territory seems unlikely, although tensions with Poland and other frontline NATO countries are running hot. Russia may step up covert, deniable sabotage, cyber infowar and arson attacks of the type it has undertaken in recent years, tisdal wrote. However, Russia responds, and the initial Kremlin reaction on Monday was a wait and see. Biden's decision challenges Ukraine and the European NATO allies, too. Having pressed so hard for so long, Zelensky must prove that the missiles make a difference. In cnn, Nick Patton Walsh said Biden's move just raised the stakes in a war Trump will inherit. Is it too late for the atacms to make a difference if it hits targets deep inside Russia? The answer is complex and perhaps explain some of the reluctance of the Biden administration to grant permission, walsh wrote. There is a limited supply of ATACMs that Ukraine can get its hands on, so even Kyiv being able to hit deep inside Russia is not going to yield an overnight change in the battlefield. Ukraine will not get enough ATACMs to alter the course of the war. The Biden administration was correct to weigh the practical utility of longer range strikes against the potential for civilian collateral damage in NATO member states if Russia felt obliged to somehow hit back. So it was not as simple or obvious a decision as some advocates in Kyiv claimed, Walsh said. In Biden's eyes, this is an escalation in response to an escalation. But the fact he delayed so long because of the extraordinary symbolism of granting this permission just adds to the potency of the decision he just took. President elect Donald Trump may think he can talk peace, but he will inherit a war where the stakes have just gotten significantly higher. All right, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. The right is mixed on the move Though many criticize Biden for his slow decision making, some suggest the decision limits Trump's options for ending the war. Others worry that the decision raises the prospects of wider war in Europe. For the Atlantic Council, John E. Herbst argued Trump must not be as timid as Biden on Ukraine. At long last, the Biden administration has decided to permit Ukraine to use long range army tactical missile systems against military targets in Russia. According to reports, this is a plus, but it comes unnecessarily late, undermining its effectiveness. Months ago, Moscow moved many of its logistical centers and much of its strategic air power out of the range of ATACMs. Had the white House allowed the use of these weapons against targets in Russia from the moment Ukraine received them, then the damage to Russia's military would have been much greater. The Trump circle has talked about providing more weapons to Ukraine with fewer restrictions on their use if Putin declines to negotiate a reasonable peace. The Trump team has also spoken about arming Ukraine as part of an eventual agreement to prevent future Russian aggression. Biden's decision means that the incoming administration, in either contingency, needs to provide Ukraine something more advanced than atacms. Herbstrout the Russian response is unlikely to extend beyond the usual saber rattling. This will be a timely lesson for the nervous Nellies with the ear of the president elect and for Trump himself in responsible statecraft, Mark Episcopal said. If Biden wanted to handcuff Trump's plan to end the war, this is the way to do it. The White House decision to reportedly greenlight Ukraine to use US atacms to strike within Russian territory shows just how far the Biden administration is willing to go to handcuff President Elect Donald Trump to its Ukraine policy, episkopos wrote. The decision was preceded by weeks of public insistence by White House spokesman John Kirby and others that ATACMS strikes inside Russia offered limited operational value and are constrained by insufficient stocks. The military logic by which these bans are imposed and subsequently lifted was always dubious at best, even as the stakes and escalatory risks have steadily crept up. Neither this war's core dynamics nor the underlying logic of Russia's red lines has changed from two weeks ago, except to the extent that Ukrainian frontlines are collapsing at an accelerated pace. The only appreciable difference, one that is surely not lost on either Moscow or Kyiv, is the looming transition to a Trump administration that is planning to pursue a negotiated settlement in Ukraine as one of its first foreign policy items, Episcopal said. Biden's decision is the tragic last bang of the U S Ukraine policy that habitually prioritized doing something in the short and medium term over articulating and pursuing a credible end game in defense priorities. Jennifer Kavanaugh called the decision all risk, no reward. The Biden administration's decision to allow Ukraine to use long range ATACMs to launch strikes deep inside of Russia is strategically unwise and operationally unnecessary. The move will not meaningfully improve Ukraine's military position, but it will intensify US And NATO entanglement in the conflict and worsen the risk of Russian escalation, including possible retaliation on US And European targets, kavanaugh wrote. Expanding Ukraine's ability to launch offensive strikes with Western weapons inside Russia will not alter the trajectory of the war or help Kyiv gain an advantage against a better equipped and more resilient adversary. In a conflict where red lines are unclear and constantly shifting, escalation management must always be a top priority, especially when nuclear weapon use is in play. Putin made it clear that he saw the use of Western long range strike weapons inside Russia to be a material change in the nature of US And European involvement in the war. A choice to disregard this warning could have dire consequences for the United States and Europe, kavanaugh said. Any escalation could also reverberate on Ukraine itself, with the Biden administration on its Way out. And the incoming Trump administration indicating an intention to end the war, Putin has little incentive to act with restraint in his retaliation toward Kyiv. Alright, let's head over to Will with Isaac's take.
Will Kabak
All right, that is it for what the left and right are saying. Which brings us to my take reminder. My name's Will, I'm one of Tangle's editors and I'm filling in for Isaac today, so I'll be reading off his thoughts in the first person here. Let me start with two theories about Biden's decision that I don't find compelling at all. First, I don't think that Biden is trying to handcuff Trump here. If he were trying to do that, I don't think he'd do so by knowingly taking a false step in a war his legacy is so strongly tied to. And with the US's relationship with NATO potentially at stake. Also, this move doesn't actually handcuff Trump in any meaningful way. After he's elected, Trump will still be able to reset our foreign policy, even with these weapons on the ground. And lastly, Biden is following a pattern he's demonstrated throughout the war, and that's giving more and more latitude to Ukraine, often slowly and after much deliberation, and always amidst a bunch of hand wringing about whether it constituted an escalation. I've been making note of this pattern for well over a year. Second, I don't believe it's too late for these weapons to make any kind of difference. Yes, they aren't going to be the game changer they would have been early on when Russia had more high value targets within range of the missiles. And crucially, Biden has required Ukraine to secure pre approval from the White House before launching any strikes. But Russia's military capabilities have proven much less impressive than many in the global community expected at the start of the war. Putin is following his own pattern, the long established Russian strategy of winning a war of attrition. But even a limited supply of these weapons could bring the conflict to Russian forces in a way that changes the contours of the war, or at least tips the scale towards Ukraine and potential peace negotiations. Zelensky knows this, which is why he's been begging the US for these weapons and the permission to use them. Ukraine, outmatched and outsupplied, has made the most out of little throughout the war, and I suspect they'll do the same here. On the other hand, I find these three reactions to be fair and very compelling. Number one, Biden's decision is a response to Russia's escalation of bringing in thousands of North Korean troops. Number two, Ukraine should have had this green light and capacity from the start of the war. Number three, the policy change will lead to a more prolonged and dangerous war. Here's the reasoning behind the first response. Russia is reportedly recruiting 100,000 North Korean troops to the Kursk region to fight and at least 10,000 are already there. This actually was the escalation, bringing in foreign troops to fight on the front lines. Biden is sending a message to North Korea and China about what happens when they get involved in a foreign war against a US ally and hoping that if Ukraine can strike the area, it will make North Korea regret sending those troops and prevent them from sending more. Here's the reasoning behind the second response. Ukraine has been fighting the war with one hand tied behind its back, and if Biden had given them the green light from the beginning, the war could be over by now or Ukraine would be fighting from a much stronger position. Giving permission and using these long range missiles was always the right thing to do. It just came too late. Here's the reasoning behind the third response. Biden has repeatedly given Ukraine what it has asked for, but as discussed before, always after much delay and hand wringing, this approach has prolonged the war and also made it incrementally more dangerous. Even if you think Russia's nuclear talk is all bluster, and I do, Ukraine's use of long range missiles is still a broadening of the battlefield and Russia is now likely to respond by increasing its covert spyware attacks or espionage that threaten NATO allies, which will make Europe and the US less safe. As reads of the current situation, all three of these ideas can coexist and frankly in my mind they do. But if I'm thinking about what the US should be doing, my gut response is argument number two, Biden should have acted sooner. In retrospect, I think Biden has been chasing an unrealistic hope that Ukraine would stave off Russia without risking any kind of expanded conflict or prolonged war. Instead, we have repeatedly crossed Putin's purported red lines without any repercussions, all while demurring over how much freedom we should grant Ukraine to defend itself. Consider this. Russia threatened escalation and promised attacks on NATO allies If we sent M1A1 tanks. We did, and nothing about their approach fundamentally changed. They made the same threat with Himars rocket launchers. Again we did. And nothing changed. The Patriot air defense system, the cluster munitions, the F16 fighter jets, over and over and over. Again, Ukraine has asked for support that the Biden administration has balked on, giving immediately all while Russia said, if you do this, we really are going to make you pay. Then we eventually do it, and Russia doesn't change its strategy. Is it risky to bet that Russia will continue to bluff? Of course. Do I think Russia has any interest in widening this war, including a nuclear escalation beyond territories in eastern Ukraine? No NATO involvement would be a death knell for Putin's war, and he knows that. Instead, after 1,000 days, the US should start acting confidently with the understanding that Putin is doing more flexing than punching. Of course, I'm not an intelligence official or a military expert, and I can only operate on the intel that leaks to the press or in unclassified documents. And it's possible that threats exist. I don't fully understand, but with 2020 hindsight to this point, if I could go back to the first week of this war, I think I would have advocated that the US give Ukraine everything it wanted right away and allowed them to better defend themselves within their borders, in the skies, and on Russian territory. What we've done instead is create exactly the kind of war of attrition that Russia is built to win. Spent exorbitant amounts of money on weapons, and allowed a million Ukrainians and Russians to die. It is, in many ways the worst of all worlds. A long, deadly, expensive war where the bad guy is still winning. So I'm fine with Biden allowing Ukraine to more widely use these weapons. I just wish he'd done it two years ago.
President Joe Biden
We'll be right back after this quick break.
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Isaac Saul
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John Law
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Will Kabak
All right, that is it for today's My Take section, which brings us to our listener question. Steven from Gallatin, Tennessee writes in a Morning Brew article there was a section on Elon Musk that reads the following with control of X, Musk was able to flood the social site with disinformation about popular Republican talking points like election fraud and immigration. The America PAC also funded Democrat impersonation campaigns on Facebook and through texts designed to target voters with messages that might persuade them to vote against Harris, according to 404 Media. I have not seen this covered in tangle, so it was news to me. Are these claims true? I lean right, but I'm against any lying or wrongful attempts to sway an election and here's our response. It gives me no joy to say this as a person who was optimistic about Musk's takeover of X, but yes, it is true. Simply put, Musk has been personally responsible for a deluge of false or misleading information on the platform about the election. Let's run through a few examples. Musk frequently claimed that the Democratic Party was importing illegal immigrants and committing election fraud by allowing them to vote. These posts amass tens or hundreds of millions of views on X and some community notes correcting them. Musk posted AI clips of Kamala Harris saying, I was selected because I am the ultimate diversity hire, so if you criticize anything I say, you're both sexist and racist. The post was viewed 133 million times and did not include a warning label or community note that the video was AI Musk accused the Federal Emergency Management Agency of blocking donations to victims of Hurricane Helene and seizing goods intended for victims, which was not true. He amplified debunked claims about mass voter fraud in Michigan. Broadly, he frequently made misleading claims about election fraud during the final months of the presidential race. And as noted in the Morning Brew article, he funded a super PAC that targeted registered Republicans with false claims about Kamala Harris agenda. Personally, I have corrected false information shared by Musk on X in recent months, and I've also answered dozens of reader and listener questions a day about the claims he's been boosting. For instance, in the run up to the election, we released a YouTube video of my interview with the chair of the Bucks County Republican Committee in which she corrected numerous false claims made by Musk about election interference and voter suppression in the county. So overall, I don't think he swayed the outcome of the election, nor is Musk the only person to engage in this kind of behavior. However, he does have a larger influence than almost anyone else online, and I think it's fair to call out how he leveraged his position to help his favored candidate. That is it for your questions answered. I'm sending it back to John for the rest of the pod and we'll see you guys tomorrow. Thanks for hanging with me today. Peace.
John Law
Thanks, Will. Here's your under the Radar story for Today Day, folks. On Monday, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that some county election officials broke the law in the Senate election between Senator Bob Casey and Dave McCormick. All major news outlets have declared McCormick the winner, but Casey has yet to concede while his campaign challenges the validity of some remaining ballots. Last week, election officials in several Pennsylvania counties, including Bucks, Philadelphia and Montgomery, decided to count ballots lacking proper signatures or dates, despite the state Supreme Court ruling earlier this year that such ballots were invalid. Now the court has reaffirmed its decision and reprimanded those officials for attempting to circumvent the law. The race between Casey and McCormick has gone to an automatic recount, triggered when a candidate's margin of victory is 0.5% or less of total votes cast under Pennsylvania law. But McCormick's victory is expected to stand. National Review has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description all right, next up is our numbers section. The number of days since Russia invaded Ukraine is 1,000. The number of Ukrainians and Russians killed or wounded in the Ukrainian war as of September 2024 is 1 million, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. The estimated number of Ukrainian troop deaths as of September is 80,000. The estimated number of Russian troop deaths as of September is 200,000. The range in miles of the US made Army Tactical Missile Systems is 190. The range in miles of the U.S. made High Mobility Artillery ROCKE which the US sent to Ukraine in May 2022 is 50. The estimated number of Russian military and paramilitary objects within range of Ukrainian ATACMS missiles as of August 2024 is 245, according to an analysis from the Institute for the Study of War. And of those military and paramilitary objects in range of Ukrainian ATACMS missiles, the number that are thought to be Russian air bases is 16. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. The United States Postal Service recently shared the forever stamps that will be released in 2025, including a stamp honoring the late comedian and actress Betty White. Known for her roles on game shows and in the syndicated sitcom the Golden Girls, White passed away in 2021 at the age of 99. In a statement, the USPS described White as sharing her wit and warmth with viewers for seven decades and also noted her compassionate advocacy for animals. People magazine has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. All right everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to retangle.com and sign up for a membership. You can also go to tangled media.supercast.com and sign up for a premium podcast membership which gets you ad free daily podcasts, Friday editions, Sunday editions, interviews, bonus content and so much more. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac, Will and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace.
President Joe Biden
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by John Wallace. The script is edited by our Managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will Kabak, Bailey Saul and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75 and if you're looking for more from Tangle, Please go to readtangle.com and check out our website.
Isaac Saul
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Podcast Summary: Tangle Episode – "Biden Authorizes Ukraine to Use Long-Range Weapons in Russia"
Release Date: November 19, 2024
Host: Isaac Saul
In this compelling episode of Tangle, host Isaac Saul, along with guest host Will Kabak, delves deep into President Joe Biden's recent authorization allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons within Russian territory. This pivotal decision marks a significant escalation in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and has sparked widespread debate across the political spectrum. The episode provides thorough analysis, incorporating diverse perspectives from both the left and the right, and includes expert insights on the potential ramifications of this move.
John Law begins with a series of brief news updates:
Aid Looting in Gaza: Approximately 100 trucks carrying food and aid for Palestinians in Gaza were looted, marking one of the worst aid losses since the war's onset.
Political Nominations: President Elect Donald Trump announced nominations for Secretary of Transportation and Commerce, selecting former Representative Sean Duffy and businessman Howard Lutnick, respectively.
Justice Department vs. Google: The Department of Justice plans to compel Google to sell its Chrome browser, following allegations of illegal monopolization of the search market.
Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy: Spirit Airlines has filed for bankruptcy after incurring losses exceeding $2.5 billion since 2020.
E. Coli Outbreak: An E. coli outbreak linked to now-recalled organic carrots has resulted in one death and 15 hospitalizations across 18 U.S. states.
Will Kabak introduces the main topic: President Biden's decision to permit Ukraine to deploy U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) within Russian territory. This decision, reluctantly made by Biden after months of resistance, allows Ukraine to strike deep into Russia for the first time, significantly altering the dynamics of the conflict.
Key Points Discussed:
Authorization and Usage: President Biden authorized the use of ATACMS, which have a range of 40 to 190 miles, enabling Ukraine to target Russian military assets located deep within its territory. This move follows Ukraine's first reported use of ATACMS in the Bryantsk region (Timestamp: [05:40]).
Russian Response: In retaliation, Russia has updated its nuclear doctrine, stating that any conventional attack supported by a nuclear-armed nation will be considered a joint attack. Additionally, the Kremlin has hinted at increased sabotage and cyber operations against NATO allies (Timestamp: [06:27]).
Military Aid: The Pentagon confirmed plans to issue $7.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine before Biden's term ends (Timestamp: [06:27]).
Strategic Implications: The decision coincides with the 1,000-day mark of the Russian invasion, highlighting the protracted nature of the conflict and the strategic maneuvers by both sides (Timestamp: [06:27]).
The left generally supports Biden's decision but critiques the timing and potential escalation risks.
Financial Times: Describes Biden's approval as "overdue" but suggests it would have been more effective had it come earlier and with fewer restrictions (Timestamp: [09:14]).
The Guardian: Warns that Biden's move could trigger increased Russian retaliation through sabotage and cyberattacks, further complicating the war and hindering peace negotiations (Timestamp: [09:14]).
CNN (Nick Patton Walsh): Argues that while the decision escalates the war, the limited supply of ATACMS may not significantly alter the conflict's trajectory. However, it raises the stakes for the incoming Trump administration, potentially complicating efforts to end the war (Timestamp: [09:14]).
The right holds a mixed stance, with some criticizing the delay while others believe it limits Trump's options.
Atlantic Council (John E. Herbst): Criticizes the late authorization, suggesting that earlier deployment of ATACMS could have inflicted greater damage on Russian forces. Herbst emphasizes that the decision constrains Trump's ability to negotiate a swift end to the war (Timestamp: [09:14]).
Mark Episkopos: Argues that Biden's decision handcuffs Trump's future policy options by maintaining continuity in Ukraine support, thus prolonging U.S. and NATO entanglement in the conflict (Timestamp: [09:14]).
Jennifer Kavanaugh: Labels the decision as "strategically unwise," citing increased risks of Russian escalation and questioning the operational necessity of ATACMS in altering the war's course (Timestamp: [09:14]).
Will Kabak presents Isaac Saul's nuanced take on Biden's decision:
Biden's Intentions: Saul dismisses theories that Biden aims to constrain Trump's policy, arguing that Biden's consistent pattern of deliberative support for Ukraine is genuine and not politically motivated (Timestamp: [18:40]).
Impact of ATACMS: While acknowledging that ATACMS may not be game-changers now, Saul believes that even limited use can influence the war's dynamics and potentially pave the way for peace negotiations (Timestamp: [18:40]).
Reactions to Authorization:
Isaac's Conclusion: Saul contends that while the authorization comes late, it remains a necessary step to bolster Ukraine's defenses. He laments the prolonged nature of the conflict, attributing it to cautious U.S. policies that have inadvertently favored Russia's strategy of attrition. Saul emphasizes the need for more decisive and timely support to effectively counter Russian aggression and move towards a resolution (Timestamp: [18:40]).
Steven from Gallatin, Tennessee raises concerns about Elon Musk's influence on social media, specifically regarding the spread of disinformation about Republican talking points and Democratic impersonation campaigns. He cites a Morning Brew article alleging that Musk has flooded platforms with falsehoods about election fraud and immigration to sway voter opinions.
Isaac Saul's Response:
Confirmation of Claims: Saul acknowledges the veracity of these claims, detailing Musk's role in disseminating misleading information on X (formerly Twitter), including false allegations of election fraud and immigration issues (Timestamp: [26:01]).
Specific Instances:
Impact Assessment: While Saul does not believe Musk's actions decisively swayed the election outcome, he highlights Musk's significant online influence and the broader issue of misinformation in political discourse (Timestamp: [26:01]).
Community Engagement: Saul mentions actively correcting Musk's false information and addressing listener queries about the disinformation campaigns, emphasizing the importance of combating false narratives (Timestamp: [26:01]).
John Law covers a lesser-publicized story regarding the Pennsylvania Supreme Court's recent decision on the Senate election between Senator Bob Casey and Dave McCormick:
Court Ruling: The court declared that some county election officials had violated laws by counting ballots lacking proper signatures or dates, despite previous attempts to invalidate such ballots (Timestamp: [28:48]).
Repercussions: This led to an automatic recount due to the narrow margin of victory (0.5% of total votes). While McCormick is expected to retain his win, the ruling underscores ongoing election integrity issues (Timestamp: [28:48]).
Media Coverage: National Review and other major outlets have reported on this development, highlighting the contentious nature of the election process in Pennsylvania (Timestamp: [28:48]).
Key Statistics:
Conflict Duration: 1,000 days since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Casualties: Approximately 1 million Ukrainians and Russians have been killed or wounded as of September 2024.
Troop Deaths: Estimated 80,000 Ukrainian and 200,000 Russian troop deaths by September.
Weapon Range: ATACMS missiles have a range of up to 190 miles, compared to the previously sent High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) with a 50-mile range.
Targets Within Range: Analysis indicates 245 Russian military and paramilitary objects are within the range of Ukrainian ATACMS, including 16 air bases (Timestamp: [32:41]).
The episode concludes with a lighter segment highlighting the United States Postal Service's upcoming forever stamps for 2025, including one honoring the late Betty White. Celebrated for her contributions to entertainment and advocacy for animals, Betty White's legacy is commemorated in these special stamps (Timestamp: [32:41]).
This episode of Tangle provides an in-depth analysis of President Biden's strategic decision to authorize Ukraine's use of long-range weapons within Russia, examining the multifaceted reactions and potential implications for the ongoing conflict. By presenting balanced perspectives from both political ends and incorporating expert commentary, the podcast offers listeners a comprehensive understanding of a pivotal moment in international relations.
For more detailed discussions and exclusive content, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to Tangle's newsletter and consider premium membership options available through tangle.com and tangledmedia.supercast.com.
Notable Quotes:
Will Kabak (04:15): "We're going to be talking about President Biden's authorization to Ukraine to use long-range missiles provided by the US in Russian territory."
John Law (28:48): "The race between Casey and McCormick has gone to an automatic recount, triggered when a candidate's margin of victory is 0.5% or less of total votes cast under Pennsylvania law."
Isaac Saul (18:40): "What we've done instead is create exactly the kind of war of attrition that Russia is built to win."
Mark Episkopos (09:14): "The decision was preceded by weeks of public insistence by White House spokesman John Kirby and others that ATACMS strikes inside Russia offered limited operational value."
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