Podcast Summary: Tangle – “Cuba on the Brink”

Host: Isaac Saul
Guest/Panel: Audrey Moorhead (Associate Editor), Will Kbach (Senior Editor, dissent segment)
Date: March 18, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of Tangle tackles the escalating crisis in Cuba amidst widespread blackouts and severe energy shortages, examining the U.S. response—especially under President Donald Trump—and the implications of new American sanctions and diplomatic postures. The Tangle team dissects the issue from multiple political perspectives (right, left, and Cuban), highlights the voices of experts and Cuban Americans, and provides Isaac Saul’s nuanced take, along with a staff dissent.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cuban Crisis: What’s Happening Now

• Severe power outages: The entire island experienced a major blackout, affecting almost 11 million people, prompting both peaceful and violent protests. (05:14)

• US Policy Escalation: President Trump implemented new sanctions to prevent Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba and introduced tariffs on other nations selling oil to Cuba. (05:14)

• Economic Deterioration: Cuba’s economy is heavily strained. The outdated, oil-dependent energy system is breaking down and imports (even staples like oil and sugar) have nearly stopped.

• Rare Protests: Violent unrest erupted at Communist Party headquarters; demonstrators set fires and ransacked offices. At least five people have been arrested. (07:44)

• Trump’s New Posture: Trump suggested a possible U.S. “takeover” or intervention in Cuba.

  “I do believe I’ll have the honor of taking Cuba, taking Cuba in some form. Whether I free it, take it, I think I can do anything I want with it, if you want to know the truth. They’re a very weakened nation right now.” – Donald Trump (07:44)

• Cuban Response: President Miguel Diaz-Canel acknowledged ongoing negotiations with the U.S. but said,

  “Agendas are built, negotiations and conversations take place, and agreements are reached, things we are still far from because we are in the initial phases of this process.” – Diaz-Canel (08:13)

2. Perspectives from the Right (09:39)

Right-leaning commentators broadly support U.S. action to pressure the Cuban regime but debate the methods and likely outcomes:

• Daniel McCarthy, New York Post:
  • Sees Trump’s stance as an “offer Cuba can’t refuse.”
  • Argues Cuba is due for a “profound change” and U.S. leverage could finally force it.
  • Trump offering an “old regime a parachute” if it makes a deal.
  • “The transition to democracy can take time, and the old regime can exit with a parachute if it makes a deal.” (10:19)
• Daniel R. DiPetras, msnow:
  • Trump’s “straightforward” strategy: Apply financial pressure to force Cuba towards democracy.
  • Warns against expecting different results from decades of failed American pressure.
  • “Is more of the same really going to bring different results?” (11:38)
• Scott McKay, American Spectator:
  • Believes Cuba’s regime is near collapse, citing power outages as terminal.
  • Argues Trump’s policies cut off free Venezuelan oil, hastening the regime’s demise.
  • “That darkness won’t last. That regime is cooked. We’re down to days, not weeks, before it all comes down.” (12:48)

3. Perspectives from the Left (13:37)

Left-leaning voices view Trump’s Cuba policy as reckless, inhumane, or likely to backfire:

• Christopher Sabatini & Katrine Hansing, New York Times:
  • Warns current U.S. strategy could spark chaos or a refugee crisis, not real progress.
  • Advocates for “a softer landing” and multilateral engagement.
  • “Any resolution…risks being a hollow victory, offering only a temporary reprieve for Cubans and a fleeting achievement for an administration that has yet to define what lasting success in Cuba looks like.” (13:52)
• Danny Valdez, The Guardian:
  • Criticizes U.S. blockade for “actively starving” Cuban communities under the “banner of democracy promotion.”
  • Urges compassion and questions the morality of worsening Cuban suffering.
  • “No country that claims to stand for human rights can allow policies that deepen hunger and desperation.” (15:11)
• Helen Yaff, Jacobin:
  • Frames U.S. policy as an imperialist attack on Cuban sovereignty and self-determination.
  • Notes Trump’s actions (e.g., seizing oil, abducting Venezuela’s president) breach international law.
  • “Calls on Cuba to make a deal with Trump amount to veiled threats against its sovereignty.” (16:39)

4. Central Quotes & Highlights

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote/Context | |-----------|---------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 07:44 | Trump (quoted)| “I do believe I’ll have the honor of taking Cuba… I think I can do anything I want with it…” | | 08:13 | Diaz-Canel | “Agendas are built, negotiations and conversations take place… we are in the initial phases…” | | 10:19 | McCarthy | “The old regime can exit with a parachute if it makes a deal…” | | 11:38 | DiPetras | “Is more of the same really going to bring different results?” | | 12:48 | McKay | “That regime is cooked… We’re down to days, not weeks, before it all comes down.” | | 13:52 | Sabatini | “…a hollow victory, offering only a temporary reprieve for Cubans…” | | 15:11 | Valdez | “No country that claims to stand for human rights can allow policies that deepen hunger…” | | 16:39 | Yaff | “Calls on Cuba to make a deal with Trump amount to veiled threats against its sovereignty.” |

5. Isaac Saul’s Take (17:45)

Isaac delivers a nuanced, hesitant, and introspective analysis of the U.S.-Cuba standoff:

• Warns against false pattern recognition:
  “Cuba is not Venezuela. Cuba is not Iran. Cuba is not Greenland, Ukraine, Mexico, or any of the several countries Trump has had military, diplomatic and economic standoffs with so far in his second term. And it should be written about distinctly.” (18:10)
• Sees a unique case for intervention:
  • Cuba’s proximity (“90 miles from Florida”), national security interests, and the strong support from Cuban Americans differentiate it from other crises.
  • Acknowledge economic pressure is yielding some diplomatic movement.
  • Cuba’s crisis mostly stems from decades of internal mismanagement, not just US policy:
    “It is the peak of American obsessive criticism…to look at Cuba and think that we are responsible for its struggles.” (20:20)
• Still deeply wary:
  • Raises humanitarian risks if Cuban conditions worsen under sanctions.
  • Escalation could spark violence, military conflict, or a Cuban refugee crisis on Florida’s doorstep.
  • Critiques Trump’s rhetoric as dangerously self-serving and questions if U.S. motives are rooted in genuine democracy-building.
  • “Our president isn’t beating the drums of democracy. Instead, he’s bragging about how easily he could simply take the country. I could do anything I want with it, he said.” (25:03)
• Summing up:
  “I want a better future for the Cuban people, yes, and I want our national interests off the coast of Florida to feel stable, definitely. But it’s hard to be Pollyannish about the risks given the global instability in nearly every direction I look.” (26:25)

6. Staff Dissent: Will Kbach (28:33)

• Criticizes US policy as part of a recognizable pattern:
  “Cuba fits neatly into this administration’s pattern of bringing maximum pressure to international relations.” (28:39)
• Argues energy blockade is “straightforwardly wrong”:
  • U.S. not obligated to “prop up” Cuba’s economy, but questions the necessity or morality of deepening a humanitarian crisis for political leverage.
  • “He’s choosing to exacerbate the Cuban people’s suffering in the absence of a clear threat or a compelling national interest… the president needs to keep his focus on the Middle East.” (29:16)

7. Q&A: Update on Nicolas Maduro (29:42)

• Maduro’s fate:
  • Captured and facing trial in New York on narco-terrorism charges.
  • Legal process is complicated and trial unlikely before end of year.
  • U.S. government blocked use of Venezuelan state funds for his legal defense.
    (For those tracking U.S. policy trends in Latin America, this is additional context for the escalating pattern of interventions.)

Timestamps for Essential Segments

• 05:14 – Crisis in Cuba: blackouts, sanctions, protests.
• 07:44 – Trump’s intentions and Diaz-Canel’s negotiation quote.
• 09:39 – The Right’s perspective.
• 13:37 – The Left’s perspective.
• 17:45 – Isaac Saul’s take begins.
• 28:33 – Will Kbach’s staff dissent.
• 29:42 – Q&A: Maduro update.

Episode Flow and Tone

• Language/Tone:
  Balanced, fact-checked, and analytical but conversational. Isaac’s trademark blend: critical, introspective, and measured—seeking complexity over easy solutions.
• Notable Moments:
  • Trump’s “I can do anything I want” quote (07:44) underscores the aggressive posture.
  • Cuban protests becoming violent signal the gravity of the internal crisis.
  • Isaac’s hesitancy and acknowledgement of uncertainty set this apart from more polemical or certain commentators.
  • Will Kbach’s dissent provides a sharply different moral reading of the situation.

Summary

“Cuba on the Brink” offers a comprehensive, multi-angled snapshot of a rapidly deteriorating Cuban landscape and the evolving U.S. response.
With power out, protests surging, and Trump’s administration dramatically escalating economic and diplomatic pressure, both sides of the U.S. commentariat debate the wisdom and consequences of American intervention. Isaac Saul’s analysis is cautious; unique conditions make Cuba’s crisis distinct from Venezuela or Iran, but the risks of deepening suffering or creating a refugee crisis remain high. The episode closes with a dissent rejecting the moral logic of U.S. pressure and a Q&A updating listeners on the fate of Venezuela’s Maduro.

If you haven’t listened, this episode offers a clear, critical, and empathetic overview of U.S.-Cuban tensions as both a regional and humanitarian flashpoint.