Tangle Podcast Episode Summary

Title: How Strong is the Economy?
Host: Isaac Saul
Release Date: June 12, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of Tangle, host Isaac Saul delves into the current state of the U.S. economy, analyzing the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation reports, jobs statistics, and President Donald Trump's recently announced trade deal with China. The discussion features perspectives from both the political right and left, followed by Isaac's own analysis and insights.

Economic Data Overview

[05:35] The episode begins with a breakdown of the latest economic indicators:

• Job Market: In May, the U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs, surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. While hiring slowed compared to April's 147,000 jobs, the numbers were higher than projected. Additionally, hourly earnings saw a 0.4% increase month-over-month and a 3.9% rise year-over-year.

• Inflation: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% from April to May, below the previous month's 0.2% rise. Annually, CPI rose 2.4%, slightly under economists' forecasts but still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Notably, energy prices fell by 1%, while food prices edged up by 0.3%.

• Trade: President Trump announced a trade deal with China, which includes China supplying necessary rare earths and magnets in exchange for the U.S. lifting certain technology export controls and easing restrictions on Chinese students in American universities. The deal features a 55% tariff on Chinese imports, combining existing tariff rates. However, stock markets reacted mixedly, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite declining by 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average remaining largely unchanged [05:35 – 09:14].

Perspectives from the Right and Left

Right-Leaning Perspectives

[11:26] The right celebrates the latest inflation data, highlighting that President Trump's tariffs have had minimal impact on inflation rates. Jacqueline Annis Levins from The Federalist asserts, "low inflation numbers refuse to match the media narrative on Trump's economy" ([11:26]). She points out that year-over-year inflation rates have decreased significantly since Trump's tenure began, with the CPI at 2.4%, near the Fed's target.

Ed Morrissey comments on the trade deal's imbalanced tariff structure, questioning why Chinese President Xi Jinping would agree to a 55% tariff rate. He suggests that this imbalance might compel American businesses to relocate supply chains out of China, emphasizing the leverage the U.S. holds in negotiations [11:26 – 20:12].

Left-Leaning Perspectives

Conversely, the left expresses concerns that the inflationary effects of Trump's tariffs may materialize in the near future. Rick Neumann from Yahoo Finance argues, "inflation isn't gone, it's just dormant" ([11:26]), suggesting that the imposed tariffs will inevitably lead to higher consumer prices as businesses pass on the increased costs.

Jonathan Levin from Bloomberg offers a more tempered view, acknowledging that while tariffs may eventually exert upward pressure on inflation, recent data shows that inflation has not spiked as some feared. He notes, "the costs of tariffs have been more detrimental to consumer demand than to inflation" ([11:26 – 20:12]).

David Goldman from CNN is skeptical about the trade deal, stating, "Trump's China truce is nothing of the sort." He emphasizes that tariff rates and export restrictions remain high, maintaining significant trade barriers between the two nations [11:26 – 20:12].

Isaac Saul's Take

[20:12 – 25:35] Isaac Saul categorizes the economic news into three segments: bad, mixed, and good.

• Bad News: He critiques the trade deal with China, expressing skepticism about its effectiveness and the lack of detailed information. Isaac notes that the deal seems more like a temporary reset rather than a substantial change in trade relations, which may not yield significant long-term benefits. "The administration is just signaling that something is happening, but it's hard to say what that is," he remarks.

• Mixed Bag: The steady unemployment rate is seen positively, indicating resilience in the job market despite economic uncertainties. However, Isaac points out that job growth is slowing, and the revised downward employment numbers suggest underlying weaknesses. Additionally, while the trade deficit has decreased, he highlights that the initial spike was due to pandemic-related fears, making the current numbers somewhat inflated.

• Good News: Inflation continues its downward trend, challenging mainstream expectations that tariffs would stoke inflation. Isaac emphasizes, "If this holds, it'll be one of the bigger rebukes of mainstream consensus that I can remember in some time." He also notes positive indicators such as rising stock prices and increased tax receipts, while cautiously optimistic about potential interest rate cuts in the future.

Isaac concludes that it's too early to judge the overall impact of Trump's economic policies, as the long-term effects of tariffs and trade strategies remain to be seen [20:12 – 25:35].

Listener Q&A: The National Debt

[25:35 – 29:22] Responding to a listener question from James in Eureka, California, Isaac discusses why addressing the national debt is challenging despite widespread understanding of its implications.

• Understanding vs. Action: While Americans and politicians recognize the severity of the national debt, prioritizing it above other electoral issues proves difficult.

• Solutions' Unpopularity: Reducing the debt would require either increasing taxes or cutting spending in major areas like the military, healthcare, and Social Security—both of which are highly unpopular among voters.

• Political Inertia: Isaac likens the situation to a game of hot potato, where each party prefers to delay addressing the debt to avoid political fallout.

He emphasizes that while economists agree on the necessity to solve the debt problem, the lack of politically feasible solutions keeps it unresolved [25:35 – 29:22].

Under the Radar: Drones in Los Angeles

[29:22 – 32:16] Ryan discusses the deployment of Predator B drones by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) over Los Angeles amidst ongoing protests. These unarmed drones, also known as MQ9 Reapers, are intended to support Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations.

• Civil Liberties Concerns: Although CBP asserts that the drones are not used for surveilling First Amendment activities and lack facial recognition technology, civil liberties advocates are worried about potential infringements on constitutional rights.

• Operational Details: The fleet comprises about eight drones, primarily for security support without direct surveillance intentions [29:22 – 32:16].

Economic Numbers Breakdown

[32:16 – 34:27] The episode presents a detailed numerical analysis of various economic indicators:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Components:

  • Food Prices: +2.9%
  • Energy Prices: -3.5%
  • New Vehicle Prices: +0.4%
  • Shelter Prices: +3.9%
  • Medical Care Services: +3.0%

• Trade Data:

  • U.S. Exports to China: -34.5%
  • Chinese Exports to the U.S.: -18.0%
  • China's Trade Surplus with the U.S.: -41.6%

These figures provide a nuanced view of the current economic landscape, highlighting areas of growth and decline [32:16 – 34:27].

Inspirational Story: Affordable Prosthetics Innovation

[34:27 – End] The episode concludes with an uplifting story about three Texas high school students who developed an affordable prosthetic leg for their friend. Utilizing EEG technology, the prosthetic, named Neuroflex, is brain-powered and costs approximately $1,000, a fraction of traditional bionic limbs priced around $100,000. The students aim to scale their innovation to help more individuals in need, showcasing grassroots technological advancement and compassion [34:27 – End].

Conclusion

In this episode of Tangle, Isaac Saul provides a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. economy amidst evolving political maneuvers, particularly focusing on the implications of Trump's trade policies with China. Balancing perspectives from both sides of the political spectrum, the discussion offers listeners a multifaceted understanding of current economic strengths and challenges.

Notable Quotes:

• "Low inflation numbers refuse to match the media narrative on Trump's economy." — Jacqueline Annis Levins, The Federalist [11:26]
• "Inflation isn't gone, it's just dormant." — Rick Neumann, Yahoo Finance [11:26]
• "If this holds, it'll be one of the bigger rebukes of mainstream consensus that I can remember in some time." — Isaac Saul [20:12]
• "The administration is just signaling that something is happening, but it's hard to say what that is." — Isaac Saul [20:12]

For more insights and detailed discussions, visit readtangle.com.