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- [00:00]
Tony
G' Day America. It's Tony and Ryan from the Tony and Ryan Podcast from Down Under.
- [00:05]
Ryan
Today we want to talk to you.
- [00:06]
Tony
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Ryan
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Tony
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Ryan
Plans for all the latest devices. Visit your nearest Boost Mobile store or.
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Tony
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- [00:50]
Isaac Saul
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- [01:54]
Ryan
From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle Foreign.
- [02:10]
Will
Good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast. The place for get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host Isaac Saul. It is Thursday, June 12th and today we're going to be covering the latest on the US Economy. We kind of got a number of sort of a rapid fire succession of updates here. Some new Bureau of Labor statistics, inflation reports, jobs report, President Trump announcing a deal with China on trade. We're going to try and summarize all this stuff. I mean each of these could be their own story, but they kind of happen so closely together. Where we're going to try and give you a breakdown of all of them at the same time and then share some views on what the left and the right are saying about them. And then of course my take. Jump in though, a quick heads up and reminder that tomorrow our newest team member, Camille Foster, the new Tangle editor at large, will be contributing his first written piece. It is an essay on America's 2020 racial reckoning and kind of describes his philosophy about the country's racial movements. Thought it was a really thought provoking edition, a really thought provoking piece. It's worth reading. It'll be in tomorrow's members only newsletter, which if you are not somebody who has bundled your podcast and newsletter membership, you should do that. It's a good way to get a discount on both. You can do that by going to readtangle.com membership. I'm actually not 100% sure if Camille's going to record this for the podcast yet, but I'll get in his ear about that, make sure he puts some time in if he can. With that, I'm going to send it over to Will, who's filling in for John today, breaking down the main story and what the left and the right are saying, and I'll be back for my take.
- [04:03]
Ryan
Thanks, Isaac. Let's move into today's quick hits. Number one, a passenger jet carrying 242 people bound for London crashed shortly after takeoff in India. Indian authorities believe there are no survivors from the crash. Number two, the United States began directing non essential staff to depart embassies in the Middle east due to the threat of regional unrest. Separately, Oman's foreign minister confirmed that the United States and Iran will meet for a sixth round of nuclear talks in Oman on Sunday. Number three, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Named eight doctors and researchers to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Kennedy had fired all of the panel's 17 member on Monday. Number four protests against the Trump administration's immigration enforcement raids continued in Los Angeles and spread to other major US Cities, including San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Dallas and Washington, D.C. texas Governor Greg Abbott said that National Guard troops will be deployed to protest locations in his state. Number five the entire Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board, which oversees the State Department's academic study abroad program, resigned, citing purported political interference by members. The Trump Administration we're back with some breaking economic data.
- [05:35]
Tony
The US economy added 139,000 jobs in May. That was slightly higher than expected and.
- [05:42]
Ryan
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Still hiring going on, not that aggressive. Wages still rising a little bit. We have not seen the impact yet of this tariff scare on companies. In the past week, several key economic indicators have released their latest metrics amid global uncertainty over the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs in May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation report showed prices rising at a lower rate than many economists expected, while the bureau's jobs report showed hiring slowed slightly from the month prior but also came in higher than projections. Separately, negotiators from the Trump administration and the Chinese government met in London this week to negotiate a trade agreement, and President Trump announced on Wednesday that the sides had reached a deal. On Monday, the BLS reported that the overall Consumer price Index, the cpi, along with the core measure that excludes food and energy prices, both rose 0.1% from April to May, slower than the previous monthly increase of 0.2%. The CPI also increased 2.4% annually and these rates were slightly under economists projections, though the annual CPI rate remains higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Energy prices drove some of the cooling CPI in May, decreasing 1% while food prices ticked up 0.3% after decreasing 0.1% in April. Last Friday, the BLS released its jobs report for May, which showed non farm payrolls increasing by 139,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. This job growth was lower than the 147,000 non farm payrolls added in April, but also higher than economists estimates. Wage growth also increased. Hourly earnings rose 0.4% compared to 0.3% growth the month prior and have increased 3.9% from May 2024, the year prior. The relative stability of the job market combined with slowing inflation has led economists to speculate that the Federal Reserve could soon cut interest rates. Analysts do not expect the central bank to announce a rate cut at its June meeting next week, but forecast a reduction by September and a second before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve last cut the interest rate by a quarter of a point in December. On Wednesday, President Trump announced some details of a trade agreement between the US And China, writing on Truth Social that the deal would include China supplying magnets and quote, any necessary rare earths to the US in exchange for lifting some technology, export controls and recent limitations on Chinese students attending American universities. Quote we are getting a total of 55% tariffs. China is getting 10% relationship is excellent, trump wrote. The White house says the 55% effective tariff on Chinese imports is a sum of the administration's 10% baseline tariff on all trading partners, the 20% punitive tariff associated with fentanyl shipments into the US and the 25% tariffs on China implemented during Trump's first term. The deal is subject to final approval from both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Major Stock market indices in the US Initially rose on the news of the deal, but fell later on Wednesday on the day, The S&P 500 lost 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite decreased roughly 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was virtually unchanged. Today we'll explore perspectives on the economy and trade from the right and left, followed by Isaac's Take.
- [09:15]
Tony
Foreign.
- [09:22]
Will
We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [09:26]
Maya
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- [10:32]
Tony
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- [11:27]
Ryan
Here'S what the right is saying the right celebrates the latest inflation data and criticizes the media's coverage of the economy's performance under Trump. Some say Trump can continue helping the economy by pulling back on tariffs. Others say the trade agreement with China seems favorable but also leaves key questions unresolved. In the Federalist, Jacqueline Annis Levins argued low inflation numbers refuse to match the media narrative on Trump's economy. Trump's tariffs appear to be having a negligible impact on inflation, with year over year inflation rates hitting lows not seen since 2021. The stock market, which tanked following Trump's Liberation Day announcement, has also recovered and is close to the highest it's been since Trump was inaugurated, annis Levins wrote. Cnn, which has been fear mongering about the economy since Trump's election, was forced to admit on Wednesday that inflation rose less than expected last month and that, quote, tariff impacts weren't prevalent in the CPI report. Nonetheless, the outlet still insisted the CPI report was, quote, lightly pockmarked with potential indications of price hikes. On Tuesday, NPR published an article titled Wall Street CEOs are cycling through the five stages of tariff Grief. The article warned about the potential loss of America's superpower status and claimed the tariff tug of war is already hiking prices for both consumers and businesses. Abc, BBC and the Guardian each ran headlines that inflation was a little higher than last month, downplaying the fact that April's rate was the lowest it's been since 2021. In the Washington Examiner, Tiana Lo Docher wrote, real wages up 1.3% inflation down 20% since Trump took office despite widespread anticipation that the President's universal 10% tariff on imports would soon trickle down into consumer prices, inflation continued to decelerate in May, with Consumer Price index inflation down 20% since Donald Trump took office. That has translated to a pay raise for workers. Dosher said it's possible that businesses have a limited ability to eat the cost of tariffs and will eventually have to pass them on to consumers in the form of increased prices. Furthermore, rebound inflation would be nearly guaranteed if Trump reverts his ill advised menu of reciprocal tariffs after the July end date to the 90 day post liberation Day pause. The Fed will want some clarity on the White House's long term tariff plans if Trump does revert to raising import levies across the board. The central bank will correctly want to wait before cutting the federal funds rate from its current level, which is already slightly below the historical average. Given the continued strength of the labor market. Trump would be wise to consider this a blessing in disguise from the Fed, dosher wrote. But for the White House, it's not too early to claim victory over the first phase of obliterating bidenomics. Inflationary scourge in hot air Ed Morrissey said the US beats China 5510 in the tariff bowl final if this is the final form of a deal, it raises some questions about why Xi would assent to it. A 5510 tariff imbalance on trade is provocative to say the least, and will likely be high enough to force relocation of supply chains for American businesses. For instance, Trump publicly scolded Apple's Tim Cook for saying that iPhones sold in America would be built in India rather than China and threatened to apply a 25% tariff on such imports, Morrissey wrote. But if a 55% tariff applied to those sourced in China, it would still make sense for Apple to shift manufacturing and assembly to India, especially since the infrastructure may not exist in the US yet to fully re home that supply chain. The part about student visas seems interesting in this context. If Xi is willing to be on the losing side of a 5510 tariff imbalance just to get Chinese students access to American universities, that proves what an impressive amount of leverage we have with China at this point, morrissey said. Now it seems the reality is that China really needs access specifically to US Higher ed institutions, and we should be asking why and what Xi uses that access to accomplish. Xi is paying a high price for that access if Trump's claims are accurate and relate to final terms rather than transitional policy. Now, on to what the left is saying. Many on the left suggest that the inflationary effects of Trump's tariffs are still to come. Some concede that tariffs negative impact on the economy may not be as significant as expected, and others say the agreement with China does not actually address trade issues. In Yahoo. Finance, Rick Neumann argued inflation isn't gone, it's just dormant. If anyone other than Donald Trump were president, inflation would be yesterday's problem. Since peaking at 9% in 2022, the overall inflation rate has declined steadily, hitting a tame 2.4% in May. That's almost at the 2% level the federal Reserve considers ideal, neumann wrote. Under normal circumstances, consumers should be enjoying some newfound purchasing power. Given that incomes are now growing more than prices, the Federal Reserve should be poised to start a cycle of gradual interest rate cuts, which it halted last December, lowering borrowing costs for everybody. But inflation isn't licked, it's just dormant. Trump's tariffs on imports are bound to have some inflationary effect beginning any day now. Trump has raised the average tax on imports from 2.5% to about 16%, and that will inevitably raise the cost of some $3 trillion worth of goods Americans buy every year, Neumann said. After three years of elevated prices, consumers seem unusually sensitive to any price hikes, and survey data shows that they're girding for higher prices. Ca Trump's tariffs the current reprieve is certainly welcome, but it's too early to celebrate inflation's demise. In Bloomberg, Jonathan Levin asked, why is inflation defying tariff fears? It's premature to assume that tariffs won't push up inflation, but developments have been pretty encouraging thus far. Inflation worrywarts, including yours truly, appear to have overestimated the degree to which companies would rush to raise prices in an environment of ever changing trade policy and softening consumer demands, levin wrote. Odds are that we'll still get some rocky inflation reports over the summer, but I'm less inclined to believe that they'll lead to unanchored inflation expectations and sustainably higher interest rates. March and April data were somewhat flattered by consumers and businesses front running, essentially trying to lock in purchases before expected tariffs hit. In that sense, may represented the initial comedown from a sugar high of sorts, and we'll have to watch closely to see if consumption returns to just so so or collapses, levin said. Overall, tariffs have been more lousy for consumer demand than for inflation. Still unfortunate, but just a different kind of bad. Given that, it's logical to expect that the Federal Reserve will get back to cautiously cutting policy rates in the months ahead to protect the employment side of its mandate. In cnn, David Goldman said Trump's China truce is nothing of the sort. Trump said both countries agreed to ease export restrictions per the prior arrangement agreed upon in Geneva in May. But in reality, the trade truce, if that's what was really accomplished this time around, is mostly just a return to the already tense state of affairs from before April 2, Goldman wrote. Tariff rates from both countries remain historically high and significant export restrictions remain in place. The United States has not opened its doors to China's autos, nor is it going to sell high end AI chips anytime soon. And in Trump's parlance, China isn't treating America much more fairly after this agreement than it did before. The compounding tariffs create significant trade barriers with America's second largest trading partner, raising prices for American businesses and consumers with no easy fixes or clear market alternatives. Some gigantic companies, such as Apple, have complex supply chains that can withstand some of the price pressures. But even Apple said it would face a 900 million quarterly cost increase because of tariffs. Goldman said a trade truce may be better than the alternative if it lasts this time. But if the deal leads to reduced trade barriers, it could boost both economies.
- [20:12]
Will
All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to my take to unpack all the latest economic news from the last week, I think the easiest thing to do is just kind of sort this into three buckets. The bad, the mixed bag, and the good. Let me start with the bad news and work my way to what I think is the good news. The bad news is the trade deal with China. I still don't think that President Trump has an actual trade strategy. The deal with China has not been approved by President Xi and publicly available details are still sparse. So my best read on this is that the administration is just signaling that something is happening, but it's hard to say what that is. That's generated loads of positive sounding headlines about a deal though, which I suppose was the point the Trump administration is celebrating. I'm just not sure exactly what. What we do know so far isn't really all that encouraging, as the Wall Street Journal editorial board put it. Details are few, but the countries appear to be resetting their trade relationship to where it was a few months ago before a tit for tat escalation. In other words, after months of uncertainty and tumult that has disrupted businesses and created volatility in global markets, the deal is effectively going back to what we had before all this started. The absolute biggest target in these negotiations was restrictions on exports of China's rare earth minerals and magnets. The Trump administration says they negotiated a six month reprieve on those, but if agreed to that is only a short term out. That still gives China plenty of leverage down the road. It also appears that in order to get there, the US Is easing its own export controls on the most advanced computer trips. It also appears that in order to get there, the US Is easing its own export controls on the most advanced computer chips. Those controls have enjoyed bipartisan support and dropping them could eliminate an important technological advantage we currently have over China. Again, the recent argument is more of a handshake deal between the two countries to walk back from the brink of an all out unconstrained trade war. This isn't some big win for us and it doesn't fundamentally change anything about our position before Liberation Day. Now onto the mixed bag. The jobs report and the trade deficit, the unemployment rate stayed the same at 4.2%, which is a healthy number and a good signal that all the uncertainty Trump has ushered in over the last few months hasn't been so disruptive that it's caused mass layoffs. What concerns many economists about the jobs report is, is that the prior month's employment numbers were revised downward following a trend that we saw under Biden. Manufacturing jobs ticked lower, the opposite of what the administration said would happen, and the labor participation rate fell too. So while unemployment didn't rise, the job market is still flashing some warning signs. In a similar vein, the administration is celebrating the fact that the trade deficit has fallen by more than half, from 138 billion to 62 billion. What they don't mention is that the trade deficit spiked in the first quarter because consumers and businesses feared tariffs and loaded up on foreign goods and products. So the numbers are a bit inflated. As I've been saying, Trump's tariff policy has been very on again, off again, so the real impact of his moves is hard to measure. There's still a lot of mud to clear to get to an answer. Reducing our trade deficits was one stated goal of the administration, so they can very much point to this trend as a positive outcome, though whether a policy pursuit of reducing trade deficits is worthwhile is very much open to debate. And finally the good news, inflation continues to trend downward. This trend began during the end of Biden's term and has continued into the first few months of Trump's term. And it's starting to look like tariff induced inflation is not a guarantee. One reason for that might be that many of the Trump tariffs are paused or never went into effect, obviously. But Trump has still imposed broad based tariffs across our global trading partners and major imports like steel and aluminum, and so far the costs of those haven't hit home. If this holds, it'll be one of the bigger rebukes of mainstream consensus that I can remember in some time. While the inflation rate continues to fall, Trump is basking in the glow of some other positive economic indicators. Stock prices are once again approaching record levels, having fully rebounded since the initial tumult of Liberation day in May. US tax receipts came in at 15% higher than the previous year, meaning the IRS is collecting more money now than it did this time last year, despite vast cuts to the agency. And finally, Trump can still look forward to some good news that seems poised to come in the months ahead. Interest rate cuts, more trade deals, or even an unambiguously strong jobs report. All of this stuff is simply too early to tell. As I've said, it could be six months or a couple years or a decade before we really understand the economic impacts of Trump's tariff rollout. No serious analysts can claim Trump has failed or succeeded yet, and many good arguments hold that the negative impacts of tariffs are just around the corner. But right now, it's hard to argue that the president's policies have been the major disruptor many people predicted. We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [25:35]
Isaac Saul
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- [26:11]
Tony
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- [26:51]
Will
Alright, that is it for my take. Which brings us to your questions answered. This one is from James in Eureka, California. I think that's how you say it. Y R E K A California. I have no idea how to pronounce that. If the common person understands that the national debt is destroying America, why is it so difficult for the Congress and administration to get it? James said so I do think it's true that the average American understands the national debt is a problem, and I think most politicians believe this to be the case too. The hardest part about solving the problem isn't whether Americans, this administration, or even the majority of national politicians understand it. The hardest part is prioritizing it. Above all other electoral issues. The national debt is driven by annual deficits, as we say all the time. The only two ways to eliminate a deficit are to increase revenue or decrease spending, as we say almost as frequently. The biggest sources of spending are on the military, healthcare and Social Security, as well as servicing the debt itself, and a majority of Americans don't want any cuts to any one of those programs the government can only increase its revenue by taking in more through taxes. And whether that's through income taxes or tariffs, Americans don't like it when their taxes go up. In those terms, the bind we find ourselves in is pretty obvious. Solutions to the debt are Deeply unpopular. While economists agree that the national debt is a problem, they are somewhat divided over when the problem becomes a screaming five alarm, totally existential problem. The Wall Street Journal recently put out a great video on this, with the upshot that solving the debt may not be 100% absolutely necessary right now. That's not to say we shouldn't solve it. Obviously we should. Our current borrowing rates, the country's credit solvency, and future generations all depend on that. That's just to say that politicians will always want to avoid making hard, unpopular choices whenever they don't absolutely have to. This may be cynical, but think of the last couple decades as a big game of hot potato. Each party wants to hold on to power for as long as they can. When they win control of the government, which means prioritizing policies that help them with voters in the short term, they can then put off solving the debt because they know they won't be the ones blamed for the disaster if they're not the ones holding the potato when the music cuts out. All right, that is it for your questions answered. I'm gonna send it back to Will for the rest of the pod and I'll see you guys tomorrow. A reminder, if you're not a newsletter subscriber, make sure you do that to get Camille's piece tomorrow. We'll see you then. Have a good one. Peace.
- [29:23]
Ryan
Thanks, Isaac. All right, let's move into our under the radar story for today. Amid civil unrest in Los Angeles over the past week, U.S. customs and Border Protection CBP, has begun flying Predator B drones over parts of the city to support Immigration and Customs Enforcement in their operations. The drones, also known by their MQ9 Reaper military variant designation, have rarely been deployed to urban environments in the United States, and CBP says they are not being used to surveil First Amendment activities. CBP's Predator B fleet consists of about eight unarmed drones, which, according to the agency, are not equipped with facial recognition technology that could be used to identify protesters. However, their deployment has raised concerns among civil liberties advocates who say it could undermine constitutional protections against unlawful searches. The war zone has this story and we'll include the link to it in our episode notes. Now on to today's numbers. First plus 2.9%. That's the 12 month change in food prices, according to the May 2025 Consumer Price Index report. Minus 3.5% the 12 month change in energy prices plus 0.4% the 12 month change in new vehicle prices plus 3.9% the 12 month change in shelter prices plus 3.0% the 12 month change in medical care services prices minus 34.5% the 12 month change In Chinese exports to the United States, according TO wind information -18.0% the 12 month change in US exports to China -41.6% the percent change in China's year over year trade surplus with the United States and finally, let's bring things home with our have a nice day story. When three Texas high schoolers learned that their friend's prosthetic leg was uncomfortable and inefficient, they took on the challenge of making him a new one. After a lot of observation and research, they decided Neuroflex, a prosthetic leg powered by the brain instead of the body. The device utilizes EEG technology that sends brain signals to predict movements from a special headband to motors in the prosthetic. Traditional bionic prosthetics cost around $100,000, while the student's invention lands at just $1,000. We really just want to take our project and help a lot more people than just our friend Aidan, one student inventor said. Good, good, good. Has this story and again you can find the link to it in our show notes. All right, that is it for today's edition. We'll be back tomorrow with our Friday piece from Tangle's newest editor at large, Camille Foster. Really excited to share that one with you. So we'll be back tomorrow and until then, have a great day.
- [32:16]
Will
Our executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Sowell, and our executive producer is John Lowell. Today's episode was End of the Day, engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will Kbach and Associate editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead Bailey, Saul Lindsey Knuth and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@readtangle.com.
- [32:49]
Isaac Saul
Foreign is a natural process, as we all know, and I for one don't mind embracing it. But I will tell you one part of aging that I don't care for. It's the symptoms that stem from changing hormones, especially as you get older to perimenopause and menopause. That's why we want to tell you about Happy Mammoths Hormone Harmony Happy Mammoth, the company that created Hormone Harmony, is dedicated to making women's lives easier and that means using only science backed ingredients that have been proven to work for women. They make no compromise when it comes to quality and it shows. For a limited time you can get 15% off on your entire first order@happy mammoth.com just use the code Happy Me at checkout. You just found the perfect candidate, but it turns out they need a work visa and the thought of hiring foreign nationals in these turbulent times is intimidating. With Meltzer Hell Rung, hiring global talent isn't just possible, it's fast and achievable. We combine expert high touch immigration services with our innovative immigration management technology platform to guide you every step of the way. From hiring your first foreign national employee to building a global team, we make immigration clear, compliant and efficient. Open your hiring to a world of talent. Sign up For Meltzer Hell Rung's free weekly news alert emails and monthly webinars at meltzerhellrung.com Ever wondered how the world's.
- [34:07]
Ryan
Biggest brands built unshakable customer loyalty? On the let's Talk Loyalty podcast, we've interviewed loyalty leaders from incredible brands like Starbucks, Emirates, bank of America, and Ikea. With over 650 episodes to choose from. Search for let's Talk Loyalty on any.
- [34:28]
Isaac Saul
Podcast platform or our website, which is letstalkloyalty.com.