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- [00:00]
Isaac Saul
To make switching to the new Boost.
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Christian Paws
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Ari Weitzman
So why wouldn't you switch from Verizon or T Mobile?
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Christian Paws
Because you have nothing to lose. Boost Mobile is offering a 30 day money back guarantee.
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Ari Weitzman
No, I asked why wouldn't you switch from Verizon or T Mobile?
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Christian Paws
Wouldn't because you love wasting money as a way to punish yourself because your mother never showed you enough love as a child.
- [00:22]
Ari Weitzman
Whoa, easy there.
- [00:23]
Isaac Saul
Yeah.
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Ari Weitzman
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- [00:31]
Ryan Reynolds
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- [00:50]
Ari Weitzman
Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with.
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Isaac Saul
A message for everyone Paying Big Wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good.
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Ari Weitzman
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Christian Paws
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- [01:40]
Ari Weitzman
Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of our take. I'm your host for Today Tangle, Managing Editor, Ari Weitzman, and I'm going to be interviewing Christian Paws today. Christian is a senior politics reporter at Vox. He covers the Democratic Party and recently wrote about the 2024 election pretty extensively. He also reports on political trends, issues movements changing America's political parties, and American identity in general. He joined Vox in 2022 after reporting on national and international politics for the Atlantic, and he's written extensively about identity and voting in the 2020 election. The 2024 election. He and I got together to talk about the young men problem that the Democrats are having. It's an article that he wrote a couple weeks ago in Vox, broke down what the issue is with Democrats. He advanced some theories that he thought was causing this issue that I found interesting and we're going to take them one at a time. So he has a structural component to the Democrats young men problem, a Trump specific component and a cultural slash, education slash, gender broad bucket explanation for it. So I sat down with Christian. We broke the article down. We talked about what these problems are, what we think the Democrats can do about it and the state of Democratic electoral politics going forward. It's a fun interview and I think you guys are really going to enjoy it. So without any further ado, here's my conversation with Christian. Okay, Christian, thanks for joining us to talk about the Democrats young man problem today. How are you doing?
- [03:22]
Isaac Saul
I'm hanging in there. I'm also just generally curious about how young men won, whether they tuned into Trump's address this week and two, what they thought of it. Because one of the main reasons why I've been really interested in this question was he was pretty popular with this group of people last year. Technically I'm one of them. I'm a cusper. I'm somewhere between millennial and Gen Z. But I'm necessarily the kind of person that ended up making a difference for the Democrats or for the Republicans last year. And I'm somebody who obviously works in journalism, cares about politics, cares about the news. And that's largely not the kind of young man that tends to be or that's not necessarily the cohort that Democrats are really reaching or I guess pretty different from the cohort that Democrats needed to reach last year.
- [04:26]
Ari Weitzman
And let's explore a little bit more what that cohort is. So you'd written this article for Vox describing the young man problem that we've seen in the electorate, whether or not those people watched Trump's speech from last night. So we're sitting here recording Wednesday, March 5, following President Trump's sort of State of the Union, his address to Congress that sort of functioned as a state of the union. I couldn't answer the question of how young men responded to that. You're more of a young man than I am. I think at this stage I'm a full blown millennial. So I may not be in that core hood either. But the things that I want to try to get from you is like maybe let's start there. Let's start with what is this problem that you're, that you're talking about that he talked about in this article for vox. What is the Democrats young man problem and how real is it?
- [05:15]
Isaac Saul
Yeah. So I think when people talk about the young man problem or if there is a problem, they tend to go back to look at the results of the election in Novemb in that Case you had a swing of young voters of all kind toward the Republican Party, Kamala Harris had a pretty historically small advantage with this demographic. And when you unpack, based off of exit polling data and other surveys taken since the election, what you get is three kinds of swings among young voters. You have young white women swinging to the right, young white men swinging to the right, and young Latino men swinging. You have something that looks more than just it's young white men that are leaving the Democrats, it's young men of all races that move to the right. And you then look back to previous election results and compare that to voter registration trends and then to what we can tell about this demographics, political ideology shifting over the last 10 to 15 years. And what you get is a picture of both gradual leftward drift of young women and therefore aligning with a leftward drift of the Democratic Party, but not necessarily a rise in Democratic partisan identification among young women. Instead, what you get is on the other side is young men identifying more as Republicans, but not necessarily identifying as more conservative per se. They're still primarily moderate. And you saw the good share that are liberal. And so that picture looks a lot more complicated than just just what happened in one election. Since when we're looking at a few different figures over 10 to 15 years, you see a loss in partisan loyalty among young men for the Democrats, that isn't necessarily accompanied with a disagreement on the issues. They're still primarily more progressive or more liberal than previous generations of men. When it comes to climate change, pro life versus pro choice, when it comes to marriage equality, when it comes to even some economic issues, they're still much more progressive. But then you get to this election last year, where then why did this shift happen? If the Democrats were casting themselves as much more progressive, perhaps than Trump, or as the antithesis of Trump, again, what else can explain that? So there is definitely a problem. It seems like it's more than just. Or I guess the way that I try to break it out is there's both something that's. Or there's something that's Trump specific, something that's maybe specific to the state of the world post pandemic. And then there's something about the Democrats specifically that they're doing wrong.
- [08:10]
Ari Weitzman
And let's get into each of those in turn, but starting with a little bit of a restatement of premise here. So it's not that young men are alone in shifting towards the right, as we saw in the election. There was a rightward shift across demographics pretty broadly. But what you're saying is there are a couple groups, young white women and young men of varying races, but most dramatically young white men and young Latino men who have shifted to favor Trump in the last presidential election. So just want to make sure I'm restating that accurately and also stating again, that you are clarifying this is not and this is not young men are shifting to become more conservative per se based off of alignment with issues, but that young men are shifting to vote for the candidates who represent the Republican Party, which is a different statement. But it's an important distinction to make. So I want to make sure I'm getting that stuff right so far.
- [09:07]
Isaac Saul
Yeah, that's right. And it's hard to try to make that. Or it's important to make that distinction because it feels, especially since November, like the conversations that elites are having that folks in various other media spaces are having are that Democrats did tremendously awful because they're too liberal, or maybe that it's young men too woke. Right. Or that young men have become reactionary and that they're all incels and that they're all suddenly anti feminist and anti anti woke and are therefore running into roves to become more conservative or take more conservative positions on things.
- [10:01]
Lorenzo
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- [11:20]
Ryan Reynolds
Folks, we're back in the bottom of the six. Lorenzo's on the mound. His slider's been Wait, is that a cat on the field?
- [11:27]
Christian Paws
That tabby's really moving. He's past second base.
- [11:31]
Ryan Reynolds
And Coach Bakerfield's making a grabbing. Oh, he missed.
- [11:35]
Christian Paws
Incredible. Someone give that cat a contract.
- [11:39]
Ryan Reynolds
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- [11:56]
Ari Weitzman
There's a couple different causes for this that you're theorizing. One of them was post Covid, something that you term as more of a structural issue, something that's specific to the candidates in particular and something that is a little broader. So cultural education, gender, more squishy stuff that kind of bucket together. So starting with the structural, I know that one of your former colleagues at the Atlantic, Derek Thompson's been writing a lot about anti incumbency across the world. As US News consumers, it's very easy to look at our political moment through just the lens of our moment and not broaden the scope to see the global lens. So something that you've been highlighting as well as Derek at the Atlantic is that this is not specific to the US that there is a push to move away from whichever party was the incumbent party during the pandemic. And we could see these post pandemic pressures just rippling out through politics right now. And that's sort of number one. Right.
- [12:55]
Isaac Saul
Right. That there is something that that is happening in various Western democracies. We see it, we, we saw it in France, we saw it in Germany with Germany's federal elections, with young voters either shifting toward voting for AfD, the far right party, or voting for the far left party instead of those mainstream parties or the incumbents who did especially bad. And that we see some of that replicating itself in the US Where Democrats came to be viewed as the establishment as they were the incumbents, even though there was a candidate switch. This gets back to the question of whether Kamala Harris was too close to Biden or didn't do enough to differentiate herself. And that that is, you know, the Trump pandemic, Democratic presidency of Joe Biden are the experiences that a lot of young people, including young men, had with politics, had with the status quo and you know, and that the party itself took itself, you know, took on the mantle of being pro institution, pro establishment.
- [14:05]
Ari Weitzman
And that to me sounds like something that could really pervade past this section of young men. And when we're talking about a global shift that we see in the US part of that contextualization helps me understand we're maybe dramaticizing this shift more than it actually exists. And also that when you compare it against other rightward shifts, this rightward shift or shift towards voting for the more rightward candidates of alignment with Republican Party in the last election amongst young men, this structural post Covid lens kind of tells me it's not really as much of it is causal, but it's causal in a way that pervades different sector segments of the population. So maybe isn't specific to young men and helps us understand in context, actually this isn't as dramatic as it might seem at first.
- [14:58]
Isaac Saul
Yeah, I think that's right because it, and that's why I thought it was important to start off with that kind of structural bigger picture frame because both of these parties in the US have spent the last few months either gloating about the advantages that they had or beating themselves up over it, or on the Democratic side also, or trying to deny that it was ethnic thing. And so that's why I think it's important to note that these were in a way like maybe it was kind of doomed to happen anyway for the Democrats. So it might not necessarily be smart to assume that this part of the demo of the electorate is lost because it probably isn't.
- [15:47]
Ari Weitzman
And you mentioned a couple other things. So I want to get to the Trump specific stuff last, I think and so starting on this cultural education, gender like broader cultural bucket to try to describe or explain the shift amongst young men. And one of the things that stuck out to me as I'm hearing your argument, and I want to let you sort of expound on it yourself here, is that we know that there's more particular correlations with leftward shifts in young women over the last 10 years and that there's a correlation with leftward alignment as education rate as the education of whatever segment it is is up. So you get this sort of perfect storm of if you're a college educated woman, you tend to be very Democratic. So there's a little bit of an a contrast there that I'm wondering if is this all explainable away through just the education element, if there's more and more women are getting college degrees proportionally to young men and More and more people with college degrees vote Democratic. Are we maybe trying to disentangle variables where it's simpler and the simple story could just be, well, the Democratic Party is the party of the college educated class and a lot more young men proportionally than women aren't college educated. And maybe it's that simple. Or am I oversimplifying?
- [17:08]
Isaac Saul
No, I don't think that's oversimplifying. I think that, I mean, there's definitely a little more nuance later that I try to unpack because I think in this third section that I'm trying to describe, there's both kind of bottom up pressures, being that what you're describing, which is you have more women who are better educated, which leads them to be more open to the Democratic pitch over the last five years, more willing to take socially liberal positions because they identify as more socially liberal to begin with, and that leads them to vote for the Democrats. And then at the same time some kind of top down pressures or changes of a Democratic party that in turn, seeing that moves further to the left, staffs itself with people who are maybe more to the progressive left than the mainstream electorate or than young men are to begin with, or if they are recruiting younger people to try to do this outreach and, and campaign work, they're not as representative of the people that they needed to reach last year. And so I think that in that way I kind of made that third bucket almost like there's education polarization happening, there is gender realignment happening on that line, and at the same time Democrats have been making that worse for themselves.
- [18:35]
Ari Weitzman
So. And when you say people who are representing the Democratic message towards the section of the electorate aren't representative of that section of the electorate.
- [18:43]
Isaac Saul
Yeah.
- [18:44]
Ari Weitzman
I want to see if you can offer some specifics about what that means. Like where's that lack of representation observable?
- [18:50]
Isaac Saul
This is something that I did some digging in toward the end of last year when I was doing a postmortem on these youth groups. What they did, what they think they did right, what they think they did wrong, and they got the turnout that they wanted, they got young people to get to the polls. It's just that those young people wanted to vote for a Republican candidate for president. And what that looks like is the fact that a lot of these organizations, people who work within the party, are naturally interested in politics, care about politics, care about institutions, care about the party, care about the candidates. And so in that way they're fundamentally different from the voters that they needed who don't Care about politics, don't care about the news, distrust the institutions, distrust the establishment, maybe have a branding problem with the Democrats. There's the fact that they're probably better educated and recruited from elite schools or from highly selective public schools in a way that's different from community colleges or smaller state schools that have a lot of these young voters and young men who they needed to get to the polls and then are also themselves both more progressive on the issues, probably identify more to the left than these voters that they were trying to reach, probably are more diverse. And that does have a bit of a double edged sword aspect to it because you want diversity in your organizations, but maybe that isn't necessarily as representative of the vast majority of young white men or white women that you're trying to reach. And so that makes it a little bit more challenging. And the last one is just like these folks also want to have future careers in the Democratic Party and so maybe weren't as willing to like, speak up about what the party was doing wrong.
- [20:48]
Ari Weitzman
That makes sense. So the couple things that you're highlighting are that the people who are representing the Democrats in order to help turn out the youth vote aren't the people who by and large make up the meaning voter or the set of meaning voters in that youth vote, where they're people who are probably have more time, more free time, so a little bit more economically advanced, who if they're college educated, they're not representing the median college educated voter who is a community college graduate, maybe a little bit more progressive, maybe because they're motivated to have a more political career. So that, that all makes sense to me. And especially when you add in the normal calculus, traditional calculus of the Democratic Party, which is any youth turnout is good because you assume the numbers are going to be in your favor. And when the numbers are a little different, it's not quite the same. And that baby Lisa, the third bucket, which is the Trump specific. The Trump of it all.
- [21:43]
Isaac Saul
The Trump of it all.
- [21:44]
Ari Weitzman
There's something specific about Trump that is driving these voters more so than other Republicans. What, what is that?
- [21:51]
Isaac Saul
There's a lot here, right? And I think it gets like, and this is, it gets me back to the original, you know, reason why I wanted to do this, this, this story now, which is a conversation that I saw both, you know, happening at the University of Chicago's Institute of Politics over whether, and that turned into a whole week long conversation about whether Democrats are too feminine or feminine or not masculine enough or whether Democrats themselves are just emasculated in some way because they lack masculine candidates or representatives to reach men. And it is interesting because there is something unique about Trump that allows him to exist both above and outside of the two party liberal, conservative kind of divide in the minds of a lot of these young voters and young men specifically, who maybe don't necessarily remember all of the Republican Party's legacy. They, you know, what the Republican Party's traditional platform used to be.
- [22:50]
Ari Weitzman
Some of them probably weren't even old enough to vote in the last time that Trump ran for president.
- [22:54]
Isaac Saul
Exactly. And in that time, Trump himself evolved tremendously, shifting, whether from 2016 to 2020 from a very anti immigrant message to something that was a lot more economy focused in 2020 pandemic specific, and then shifting back into a more reactionary immigration message. So there's been some shifts there. And I think when you point out that memory and that experience, they vote when these young people could vote, when young men could vote. They see Trump existing as a way to almost break the two party system. Somebody who broke the Republicans and who isn't the Democrats. And so maybe these young people don't necessarily trust the Republican Party or don't know what it stands for. And they definitely don't trust the Democrats and they don't trust the establishment, the incumbents. And so see Trump as somebody who they can make a wager on and who it reminds me of the old line of like, do you take Trump seriously or literally? And a lot of these folks were willing to bypass that question and just say, you know what, whatever he does, he's promising change. There was a better economy. That makes sense. And combine that with the fact that, and this is something that just as somebody who is an elder gen zer, I guess, like, blows my mind a bit. But so many younger men, specifically in my reporting all of last year, like, there was something about the lack of a stigma associated with Trump in that, in that year of campaigning where he did seem more relatable, he did seem more personable, he did seem like, not like if you were listening to him and then hearing the Democratic argument about him being a fascist or a threat to democracy, et cetera, there was just something that didn't resonate between those two points. And when you see that person and that personality manifest itself through TikTok, through podcasts, through live streams, through, you know, appearances with influencers, you know, at UFC matches or going to a, you know, a NASCAR race, there's just something about that Trump Persona that makes you kind of dub, take a second look at him and say, wait a minute, he's not as bad as they've been telling me he is.
- [25:21]
Lorenzo
We'll be right back after this quick commercial break.
- [25:27]
Christian Paws
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Isaac Saul
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Ari Weitzman
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Christian Paws
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Ryan Reynolds
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- [26:34]
Ari Weitzman
So it sounds like there's sort of, you know, when you look at it from a politico mindset, you're a person who thinks, I understand the way the board's set and how people have been evolving over time and the sort of old cliche of if you're young and not a liberal, you don't have a heart and if you're old, you're not a conservative, you don't have a brain. And we transpose all of these ideas onto the way we look at the younger generation. But when you put on the cap of a person who is in that generation, who's 18 to 26, who's considering who they're going to vote for, they're not thinking about that history. They're not thinking about. Actually, you're in the middle of a global anti incumbency moment. Actually, there's a right word shift kind of in general amongst Republican candidates that is shared across demographics. It's not just you. What you're seeing is my segment's a little different. I'm not represented in the thing that the Democrats are putting forward and the people they're putting forward and the message they're putting forward. I don't see the danger they're telling me to feel in this Trump person, I don't see the danger they're telling me to feel on the platform. I feel alienated. I'm making a choice that makes more sense for the things I'm seeing and for the messages that I'm being told. That that almost feels like kind of the. The point that I'm taking from you.
- [27:51]
Isaac Saul
Yeah. And a corollary to that. Instead, the people that are making me feel insecure and creating the conditions for me to feel insecure in the country, in the national economy, my future in higher education are. The Democrats are the party in power.
- [28:08]
Ari Weitzman
And they've. They've almost taken on by seems like seemingly by accident, the mantle of the establishment party by being pro institution. Trump wants to remove. Nowhere getting a little field. I'll bring us right back. But Trump wants to remove funding to a bunch of different federal agencies. The Democrats are saying, you can't do that. So they're now putting in a position where they're defending the federal government and the state of the federal government. And that brings me to the next. My final question to you, which is, if this is a real thing, this Democratic Party issue with the young male voter, what are they doing about it? Are they just backpedaling into a position that makes it worse or like we were just talking about, or is it going to be what we led with, which is it's probably a temporary thing. It might just be Trump specific. When you look at the issues, these people are gonna come back around. Are the Democrats saying, hold the line, it's fine, or are they trying to change course in some way?
- [29:05]
Isaac Saul
Well, they're kind of shooting each other right now. They're kind of. Okay, that's a circular for a circular firing squad still. Because I was shocked by this. I alluded to this in the piece, but I don't think we named her. But one of the Democrats primary spokespeople right now is Representative Jasmine Crockett from Texas. And it was very wild to me that after the election, one of the first things that she said or one of the most viral moments that she had on TV was to almost tease mediocre white bros. And I just didn't understand why that would be something that you would say when that was the cohort that you lost and that contributed to losses all around the country. So, I mean, don't do that is one. One thing. But there is a little bit of, like, internal argument going on among Democrats because on the one hand, that popularity that I mentioned at the start has been trending down and that's largely been driven by the fact that young men are also not necessarily confident that Trump is taking the economic steps that they want him to take. The reason why so many of them were willing to make that wager on being welcomed by him. And maybe there is some disaffection there that just happens naturally as the a presidential honeymoon period ending. And then at the same time, I think that there's some division among Democrats over just how much to cater is, quote, unquote, cater to young straight men, young straight white men. Given that that hasn't been the priority of the party over the last few years and the worry being like, oh, by taking this young man problem seriously, does that mean that we then have to pay less attention to the marginalized groups that we traditionally also have been taking the mantle on to defend and uplift? So one person, for example, told me it's, you know, two things can be true. We can acknowledge that we have these problems and that we need to craft a specific message and identity and platform that speaks to economic insecurity that they feel to educational opportunities that they're falling behind in. That speaks to them being welcome within the party, given that one thing that we didn't really get into. But there is an aspect here of almost like feeling insecure about affirmative action dei, like specific identity issues that the Democratic Party has taken on a mantle of, have in a lot of polling and surveys and focus groups have turned off a lot of these young men feeling that they are being left behind. So, so taking into account both of those sides is the challenge that the party has right now. But this is where the stakes matter, is that these are young people. Your politics kind of gets cemented around these years when you're being exposed to the electoral system, when you're being exposed to external factors like Trump, like the pandemic or before the recession. And that's why it's crucial for I think both parties to acknowledge that, that these young men and young voters in general aren't lost or guaranteed to be part of your coalition forever and that you can leave some of it up to the structural anti incumbency effects again. But without presenting a legitimate and coherent message, without reaching these people where they are going on these podcasts or lifting up voices outside of politics that can be considered more legitimate than like Hawking Jeffries or Chuck Schumer trying to talk to young men, you're not going to make much progress.
- [32:55]
Ari Weitzman
Yeah. And it sounds like, I don't want to be too judgmental here, but it sounds like There's a little bit of a broken lens through which to look at this where you're saying, oh, it's an issue with how we're identifying as a party and how people can identify with us, but at the same time we want to make identity central to the way that we position the party. So trying to do both of those things at once to say we want to be a coalition of identity based diversity, while at the same time saying, but also the issues should be important but we're not going to prioritize them, but we are going to be the party of issues. It just seems like they're trying to do a couple things at once when it might be just more simple to choose one and say we're a party for everybody. Identity, like it doesn't matter. Let's do issues or go all the way the other way and say we're going to be the minority party through and through. It seems like it's hard to do both.
- [33:54]
Isaac Saul
It's hard to do both. And not to blame it all on the two party presidential system.
- [33:59]
Ari Weitzman
Go ahead, let's do it and wrap.
- [34:02]
Isaac Saul
That also factors in. If you had a parliamentary system, you'd have multiple parties representing both the right and the left and you we wouldn't have to have the conversation about the Democrats being lost in their identity every four years. And then who knows, right. Maybe nobody will learn these lessons because it's going to be a midterm year next year and the highest engaged, highest informed young people will turn out and then we'll get another kind of broken. Exactly, exactly. A broken idea of what's happening.
- [34:33]
Ari Weitzman
Well, my money's on we're going to learn some of the right lessons and some of the wrong lessons and then we're going to be back talking about some new problem Democrats are having and whether or not their stance of why don't people vote for us, Are they stupid? Whether or not that's the right stance.
- [34:50]
Isaac Saul
And I'll look forward to having that, that conversation again with you then.
- [34:54]
Ari Weitzman
Well, that'll make one of us. I'll look forward to having a conversation with you either way. Christian, thanks for joining us today to talk about this. Definitely complex and simple at the same time and something that I think we're going to be watching for the next two years before the midterms.
- [35:07]
Isaac Saul
Absolutely. It was a pleasure to be here and chat with you.
- [35:16]
Lorenzo
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our managing editor, Ari Weitzman. Will K. Back Bailey, Saul and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was to designed by Magdalena Bacoba who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75 and if you're looking for more from Tangle, Please go to readtangle.com and check out our website.
- [35:56]
Isaac Saul
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Ari Weitzman
Dumping it and then switching to intercom.
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Isaac Saul
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- [36:24]
Ryan Reynolds
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