Podcast Summary: Tangle – “Is a strike on Iran coming?”

Host: Will K. Back (Senior Editor, with creator Isaac Saul appearing for credits and segments)
Date: February 12, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of Tangle explores escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, with a particular focus on the possibility of an imminent U.S. military strike. It covers recent mass protests within Iran, the regime’s crackdown, ongoing nuclear negotiations, the Trump administration’s military posturing, and includes perspectives from across the political spectrum. Senior editor Will K. Back provides context, analysis, and his own evolving viewpoint on the likelihood and prudence of U.S. military intervention.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background and Recent Developments (02:33–06:45)

• Iran’s Internal Unrest and Crackdown

  • December 2025–January 2026: Widespread protests in Iran triggered by economic hardship and anti-government sentiment.
  • Iranian regime responded with force, cutting internet access and deploying the military.
  • Death toll from the crackdown is estimated at 7,000–30,000 people ([06:45]).

• U.S.–Iran Negotiations & Tensions

  • U.S. has built up military assets in the Middle East; the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group arrived in late January ([06:45]).
  • U.S. and Iranian officials met for indirect nuclear talks in Oman on Feb 6—the first negotiations since the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear sites in 2025.
  • President Trump continues to issue threats of military action while claiming talks are "very good" ([06:45]).

• U.S.–Israeli Relations

  • President Trump met with Israeli PM Netanyahu to discuss both diplomatic and military strategies regarding Iran.
  • Netanyahu presented intelligence on Iranian military capabilities and pushed for Israeli security interests ([06:45]).

2. Perspectives from Across the Spectrum

The Right (11:11)

• Favors Military Action, Skeptical of Regime Change from Within
  • Wall Street Journal Editorial Board:
    • “The deal in Iran is regime change. ... Help the protesters topple the ayatollah and his enforcers. Don’t crush the Iranian people’s hopes. ... If Iran’s revolutionary regime falls, the whole region gets better. China and Russia lose.”
  • Niall Ferguson (The Free Press):
    • “True restorations are few and far between, but ... most counter revolutions fail. ... If President Trump can do anything at all to impede, if not destroy, the Islamic Republic’s massacre machine, I wish Godspeed to those who received the orders to strike.”

The Left (13:56)

• Warns Striking Iran Could Backfire, Draws Iraq Parallels
  • Bloomberg Editorial Board:
    • “It will take more than bombs and missiles to fix Iran. ... Destroying missile factories and air defense sites would aid US allies ... more than Iranian protesters. ... Leading civil society figures have united [around] a new constituent assembly so Iranians themselves can decide...”
  • John Duffy (LA Times):
    • “If this sequence sounds familiar, it should. In late 2002 and early 2003, the US followed a similar path. Military power accumulated faster than political clarity. ... Our failure was never seriously articulating how force was meant to shape what came next politically.”

International Voices (17:36)

• See Talks as Buying Time; Warns U.S. Action Could Strengthen Regime
  • Mohanad Saloom (Al Jazeera):
    • “Once bargaining becomes technical, the fundamental dispute remains unresolved. ... The most probable short term outcome remains neither breakthrough nor war, but a managed deadlock...”
  • Haviv Gore (The Free Press):
    • “Blunt, broad based economic punishment won’t work. ... Nothing would shore up the internal sense of regime legitimacy faster than a foreign adversary. ... A regime willing to mass murder its own people … cannot be bombed out of existence. It must be delegitimized.”

3. Host Analysis: Will K. Back’s Take (21:24)

Initial Predictions and What Changed

• Will revisits his January assessment: expected a regime crackdown, no U.S. military intervention, and protests lacking the capacity to topple the Iranian state—predictions borne out so far.
• But, he now believes a U.S. strike has become more likely than not, due to:
  1. Stalled Negotiations: “I don’t think the U.S.–Iran talks are progressing in a way that will yield any kind of face-saving agreement for both sides.” ([24:14])
  2. Military Buildup: Second carrier strike group prepared, matching prior patterns before rapid U.S. interventions.
  3. New U.S. Foreign Policy Strategy: Cites Venezuela as a model—backing regime insiders rather than opposition, possibly applicable to Iran (“Not only could Trump supplant Ayatollah Khamenei with another figure from the Ayatollah’s inner circle...”). ([25:55])

Host’s Cautions and Criticisms

• Trump’s unpredictability makes outcomes hard to gauge: “For all the prognosticating... I don’t think anyone really knows what President Trump will do. In fact, I suspect the president himself hasn’t made up his mind.” ([23:31])
• Will expresses concern over volatility as a “tactic” in foreign policy:
  • “In business, volatility can be an effective tactic. ... In international affairs, volatility can mean regime collapse, refugee crises, and mass death.” ([27:21])
  • “Treating geopolitical rivals like corporate adversaries may produce short-term leverage, but it overlooks the fragility of the people caught in between.” ([27:36])
• He is “weary” of the administration’s approach and worries more disorder will follow: “Whatever path Trump takes, I worry that more disorder will follow.” ([27:59])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On regime brutality:
  • “The images of slaughter in Iran, of the corpses in body bags strewn contemptuously on the ground, are agonizing to contemplate...”
    —Niall Ferguson, The Free Press (12:40)
• On military strategies and their consequences:
  • “Repeated military action taken without clearly articulated objectives erodes US credibility and weakens the connection between American demands and American restraint.”
    —John Duffy, LA Times (15:54)
• Host’s uncertainty:
  • “Trump is unpredictable … and his decision making often seems to be dictated by sudden whims or the opinion of the last person he talked to.”
    —Will K. Back (27:09)

Key Timestamps

• Introduction and background: 02:33–06:45
• Perspectives (Right, Left, International): 11:11–21:24
• Host’s analysis: 21:24–28:00
• Notable audience Q&A (Puerto Rico status): 29:54–32:40

Overall Takeaways

• Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are rising amid post-election foreign policy shifts by the Trump administration. The U.S. has increased its military presence while launching talks that appear unlikely to succeed.
• Political voices on the right encourage bold action against Iran, while those on the left and many international commentators caution that strikes could backfire, harden regime control, and destabilize the region.
• The host’s stance has shifted: He now sees military intervention as more probable but feels uneasy about this path, doubting its benefits for either U.S. strategic interests or the Iranian people.
• The episode underscores the unpredictability of U.S. decision-making and the grave stakes involved for ordinary Iranians and the broader region.

For more in-depth breakdowns and next steps, look out for Tangle’s Friday edition covering the Trump administration’s alignment with Project 2025. For full access, consider subscribing at Tangle’s newsletter.