Is there an affordability crisis?

Summary

Tangle Podcast Episode Summary

Episode Title: Is there an affordability crisis?
Host: Isaac Saul
Date: November 18, 2025

---

Main Theme: Is There an Affordability Crisis in the U.S.?

This episode of Tangle delves into whether the United States is experiencing an "affordability crisis," examining recent economic data, public sentiment, and the effectiveness of President Trump's new economic initiatives. The discussion features perspectives from both the left and right of the political spectrum, as well as in-depth analysis from Tangle’s Managing Editor Ari Weitzman and host Isaac Saul.

---

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Economic Context & Policy Proposals

• President Trump has launched several measures aimed at addressing rising costs of living, including:
  • Tariff removals on certain agricultural products (coffee, cocoa, bananas) not widely produced in the U.S. ([06:56]).
  • Proposal for $2,000 "tariff dividends": Direct payments to Americans with income under $100,000, drawn from tariff revenues ([06:56]).
    • This plan would require congressional approval, and details remain unclear.
  • 50-year mortgage plan and direct HSA deposits have also been discussed by the administration but have yet to solidify.

2. Economic Indicators & Current Data

• Inflation: Monthly CPI rose 0.3% in September; annual inflation at 3% ([06:56]).
• Unemployment: Latest available data show 4.3%, below the 20-year average ([19:20]).
• GDP Growth: Q3 estimated at 3.8%, higher than 2019 pre-pandemic levels ([17:00], [19:20]).
• Interest rates: The Fed has cut rates twice in 2025, now at 3.75–4% ([06:56]).
• Stock market: At record highs.

3. Public Sentiment & "Vibecession"

• Despite healthy macroeconomic indicators, consumer sentiment is at historic lows—worse than during the 2008 crisis ([19:20]).
  • Reasons cited: Wage growth hasn't caught up to inflation post-pandemic; many Americans face higher costs for essentials, are taking on debt, or need extra jobs to get by ([19:20]).
  • Index Insight: University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is at 50 ([19:20]), a historic low.

4. Policy Analysis: Across the Spectrum

What the Right is Saying ([11:17])

• Mixed reviews of Trump’s approach:
  • Some urge patience, noting positive indicators like inflation down from 2022 highs, low unemployment, GDP growth, and rising wages.
    • Nicole Russell, USA Today:
      “Inflation is hovering around 3%, which is a significant improvement from June 2022, when it was at 9.1%... These data points make me question Democrats overall cynicism about the economy.” ([12:45])
  • Others criticize Trump’s messaging and tariff strategy.
    • Washington Examiner Editorial Board:
      “Trump needs to drop the happy talk and change course, particularly on tariffs, before it’s too late... Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividend is also a terrible idea that will make the economy worse. How is it any different than the Biden stimulus payments that everyone agrees caused the worst inflation crisis in a generation?” ([14:33])
  • Eddie Scarry, Federalist:
    Criticizes Trump for appearing out-of-touch, urges him to acknowledge continued unaffordability of basics—even if improvement takes time ([15:22]):
    • “At a minimum, it’s demanded of the president to assure everyone that he isn’t just having a good time with dignitaries in his eternal quest to secure Nobel Peace Prize.”

What the Left is Saying

• Focus on growing inequality and denial of real hardship:
  • Renee Graham, Boston Globe:
    “During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump claimed, ‘when I win, I will immediately bring prices down starting on day one.’ But it’s been the opposite. Prices have gone up since his return… If Trump believes his economy is the greatest we’ve ever had, let him make that argument in a supermarket aisle.” ([16:44])
  • John Cassidy, New Yorker:
    Argues that Trump's policies have worsened a “K-shaped” recovery—benefitting the wealthy via stock and real estate booms, while wage gains fail to keep pace with costs for most.
    • “None of the schemes he has recently floated are adequate to address the affordability challenge, and his healthcare proposal could well make things a lot worse.” ([17:53])
  • Paul Krugman (Substack):
    Identifies a disconnect between data and lived experience, but accuses Trump of misrepresenting economic conditions.
    • “Trump and company, by contrast, are simply lying...Now we have two presidencies in a row in which Americans are far more negative about the economy than the usual measures would have predicted.” ([18:42])

5. Ari Weitzman's Analysis ([19:20])

Core Arguments:

• Traditional indicators show a healthy economy: inflation is historically average, unemployment is low, and growth is solid.
• But:
  • Consumer sentiment is abysmal.
  • Wages have not kept up with post-pandemic inflation; households feel the squeeze ([20:45])
    • "All the healthy historic indicators in the world won't make a difference to people when they are just sending more money out of their households than they're taking in, and they've been doing so year after year." ([21:45])
  • Federal policy responses (tariffs, stimulus checks, 50-year mortgages) are either not working or risk worsening the issue.
  • Calls for the administration to admit the seriousness of affordability and establish a more comprehensive policy than “checks, tariffs, and trust me” ([25:54]):
    • “The Trump response to affordability desperately needs to pivot. For starters, the president needs to admit that consumer prices are a real concern. That’s something his predecessor failed to do to his peril.” ([25:49])

6. Isaac Saul’s Dissent ([27:03])

• Argues for giving Trump’s policies more time to take effect (“barely 10 months into his presidency”).
• Asserts that many strong indicators (stock market, wage growth, low unemployment) provide a positive base.
• Points out that bipartisan, “abundance-minded” approaches—inspired by measures in states like California—could help affordability regardless of party.
• Acknowledges the reality of rising costs but is optimistic that if Trump’s messaging and policies take hold, “the economy is once again a winning issue for him” within a year or two ([28:55]).

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ari Weitzman ([21:45]):
  "All the healthy historic indicators in the world won't make a difference to people when they are just sending more money out of their households than they're taking in, and they've been doing so year after year."

• Washington Examiner Editorial ([14:33]):
  "Trump needs to drop the happy talk and change course, particularly on tariffs, before it’s too late."

• Renee Graham, Boston Globe ([16:44]):
  "If Trump believes his economy is the greatest we've ever had, let him make that argument in a supermarket aisle where he'll meet Americans who are hurting because he causes them pain."

• Isaac Saul ([27:25]):
  "I just don't think Trump has had enough time to address it. And I could see a world where his policies bear fruit...and in a year or two, the economy is once again a winning issue for him."

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:12] – Isaac Saul sets up the day’s topic and context.
• [06:56] – Summary of Trump’s recent economic actions and context for current policy debate.
• [11:17] – Analysis of “what the right is saying.”
• [16:44] – Analysis of “what the left is saying.”
• [19:20] – Ari Weitzman’s in-depth economic analysis.
• [27:03] – Isaac Saul’s dissent and counterpoint.
• [30:51] – Listener question on the Cyber Security and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).
• [33:28] – Additional news and data (numbers section).

---

Other Noteworthy Points

• Listener Question Segment ([30:51]):

  • Discusses recent layoffs and restructuring at the Cyber Security and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the potential implications for U.S. election security.
  • “Some of the tasks that CISA could be scaling back would put future elections more at risk to potential sophisticated cyber attacks.” —Isaac Saul

• Closing Note:

  • Reiterates significant public concern about the economy despite data, pointing to a crucial disconnect that remains a political and policy challenge.

---

Summary Table: Key Economic Data

| Indicator | Latest Value | Notes | |-------------------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------------------------| | Inflation (CPI, Sep 2025) | 0.3% (monthly), 3% (yr) | Below 2022 peak, but persistent increases | | Unemployment (Aug 2025) | 4.3% | Below 20-year average | | GDP Growth (Q3 2025, est.) | 3.8% | Above 2019 pre-pandemic levels | | Consumer Sentiment Index | 50 | Lower than during 2008 crisis | | Stock Market | Record high | Positive for participants, not universal | | Wage Growth (since 2021) | Lagging inflation by 1.2% | Many households falling behind |

---

Final Takeaway

The episode underscores a persistent paradox: traditional numbers suggest an economy on the mend—or even booming—while public opinion and household realities point to continued crisis. The administration’s answers (tariffs, cash payments, deregulatory moves) are questioned by both the left and right, and the Tangle team urges a more forthright, practical acknowledgment of the real squeeze on everyday Americans.

Quote to sum up the episode:
"The economy may be running well on paper, but Americans are feeling the pinch every day. Until leadership admits that, and crafts policy accordingly, no amount of good data will fix the vibes—or the reality." — Ari Weitzman ([26:50])

Transcript

[A]

The next evolution in football storytelling. Football Manager is back in our lives. Made with the unity engine. For the first time, Football Manager 26 refreshes the managerial experience and sets the stage for you to define your football destiny. I still remember that one save where my non league squad went all the way to the Champions League final. It was pure heartbreak and extra time. But that's the magic of fm. Every decision, every tactic, every every touch of the ball tells your story. Experience the richest match days in series history, complete with enhanced player movement, the full Premier League license, and for the first time ever, the women's game. Thank you to the great friends at Sports Interactive, the great team behind FM26, which is now out worldwide across platforms. Step into the dugout and change the game.

[B]

Hi, this is Robert Mase from the Athletic. This time of year always gets busy, but that's when having Peloton in my life really makes a difference. The new Peloton Cross Training Tread plus, powered by Peloton iq, helps me fit in great workouts no matter what's on my schedule. It's Peloton's most advanced equipment yet, giving you real time guidance and endless ways to move. Peloton IQ plans your workouts, tracks your progress and corrects your form so you can train smarter and make the most of your time. Let yourself run, lift, flex, push and go. Explore the new peloton cross training tread [e-mail] oh, the car from Carvana's here.

[C]

Well, will you look at that.

[A]

It's exactly what I ordered.

[C]

Like precisely. It would be crazy if there were any catches.

[A]

But there aren't, right?

[D]

Right. Because that's how car buying should be with Carvana. You get the car you want, choose delivery or pickup and a week to love it or return it.

[C]

Buy your car today with Carvana.

[D]

Deliver your pickup. Fees may apply. Limitations and exclusions may apply. See our seven day return policy at Carvana.com. Executive producer isaac saul this is tangle.

[E]

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast Place. We get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul. It is Tuesday, November 18th and today we are talking about the latest on the US Economy. There's a lot here. President Trump has been throwing out all kinds of proposals, from 50 year mortgages to $2,000 checks for everybody making under $100,000 a year. There's debates about interest rate cuts, things happening at the Fed. We're going to get into all of that today Ari Weitzman, our managing editor, is on the take. I have a dissent. So I'll be recording that. We've got a listener question that we're going to tackle. And, and before we jump into all that, I want to give you a heads up that my interview with Alex Thompson, the author of Original Sin, which was the book about the COVID up of President Joe Biden's mental decline, he sat down with me for 25 minutes. Ish. At our event in Irvine, California before he went on stage. We recorded the whole thing. The interview's now up on our YouTube channel, Tangle News. On YouTube, we got to talk about the lessons the press should learn from the scandal. Who he thinks is gonna run for president in 2028. Alex is one of the most well sourced reporters in Washington, D.C. he's a really straight news guy. He writes for Axios. He never really shares his opinion. And I was kind of worried going into the interview, like, ah, maybe this won't be so interesting because, you know, he has to play it so close to the vest and he just has this very particular way of delivering this kind of insider, well connected information that I found deeply interesting and captivating and fascinating. And he brought a lot of candor to the interview, which I really appreciated. He didn't dodge any of my questions. He addressed them head on. It was a great interview. So if you're interested in that, you can go find it on our YouTube channel. Again, tangle news on YouTube. I think it's worth your time. All right, with that, I'm going to send it over to John for today's main topic. After what the left and the right are saying, Ari will be back for his take. And then I've got a dissent.

[C]

Thanks, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, the United Nations Security Council approved a resolution adopting President Donald Trump's proposed peace plan for Gaza, establishing a legal mandate for an international stabilization force in the strip and transitional government. Thirteen of the 15 Security Council members voted for the resolution, and Russia and China abstained. Separately, Hamas released a statement saying it rejected two key terms of the peace plan that required its disarmament and abdication from governance. Number two, President Trump announced that the United States will sell F35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia ahead of a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House. Number three, the Department of Homeland Security said it had arrested over 130 people across two days of immigration and enforcement operations in Charlotte, North Carolina. The agency claimed that 44 of those people had criminal records and are suspected of being in the country illegally, though their identities have not been confirmed. Number four, President Trump said he will sign the bill compelling the Justice Department to release all files related to Jeffrey Epstein if it passes Congress. The House is scheduled to vote on the bill on Tuesday. And number five, acting Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator David Richardson resigned, saying he only planned to stay in the role until the end of the hurricane season. In the Richardson faced scrutiny for his handling of the federal response to the catastrophic flooding in Texas in July. FEMA Chief of Staff Karen Evans will replace richardson on December 1.

[D]

There are a lot of things that Americans buy every single day bananas, coffee, as I as I mentioned, that are all seeing tariff rates rise and inflationary impacts that the American consumer is feeling on levels that we haven't registered since the 2008 financial crisis. That's how bad the consumer index is in terms of just how you feel about the state of the economy and consistently the economy, jobs, prices and inflation rank as the number one, two, three and four issues for U.S. consumers, and President Trump's own approval rating on those issues is negative 57 points.

[C]

In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has announced or proposed several measures to address the cost of living. The moves come against the backdrop of an uncertain economic outlook, as voters have expressed concern about rising prices and financial markets have experienced significant sell offs. While President Trump has maintained that the economy remains strong, some Republicans have called on him to refocus his agenda on affordability issues ahead of the 2026 midterms. On Friday, Trump issued an executive order removing tariffs on a variety of agricultural products that are not produced in significant quantities in the UN United States, including coffee, cocoa and bananas. In a fact sheet accompanying the executive order, the White House said Trump decided to lift the tariffs due to progress in trade negotiations with countries producing these goods. However, prices for many of the now exempt goods have also risen since the tariffs were implemented, part of an overall rise in food prices. Separately, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Besant have proposed sending $2,000 dividend payments derived from tariff revenues to a subset of Americans based on income. While the administration has not defined the core details of the plan, Trump said the dividends would be sent in mid-2026 and delivered via a tax rebate. On Sunday, Secretary Bessant acknowledged that the plan would require congressional authorization. Although prices have continued to rise across the country, the latest inflation data showed more modest increases relative to economists expectations. According to the Consumer Price Index report For September, the CPI rose 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3% on an annual basis. Rise in gasoline costs were the biggest driver of the monthly increase, while other goods like food and shelter increased more modestly. Overall, the monthly CPI remains well below its five year high in June 2022, but has increased steadily since April 2025. On the heels of the CPI report, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to cut the federal Funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75 to 4% at its October meeting, the second reduction in 2025. While some analysts expect the FOMC to cut rates again at its December meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers have signaled they may hold off, citing concerns about persistent inflation. Some closely watched economic reports that were delayed by the government shutdown will be released in the coming weeks. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will publish the monthly jobs report for September on Thursday and the inflation adjusted earnings report for September on Friday. Separately, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt suggested that the CPI and jobs reports for October won't be released due to disruption from the shutdown. Today we'll share analysis from the right and the left on the US Economy, and then Managing Editor Ari Weitzman will give his take.

[E]

We'll be right back after this quick break.

[D]

Take control of the numbers and supercharge your small business with Xero. That's X E R O. With our easy to use accounting software with automation and reporting features, you'll spend less time on manual tasks and more time understanding how your business is doing. 87% of surveyed US customers agree Xero helps improve financial visibility. Search Xero with an x or visit xero.comacast to start your 30 day free trial. Conditions apply.

[A]

The next evolution in Football Storytelling Football Manager is back in our lives Made with the Unity engine for the first time, Football Manager 26 refreshes the managerial experience and sets the stage for you to define your football destiny. I still remember that one save where my non league squad went all the way to the Champions League final. It was pure heartbreak and extra time. But that's the magic of fm. Every decision, every tactic, every touch of the ball tells your story. Experience the richest match days in series history, complete with enhanced player movement, the full Premier League license and for the first time ever, the women's game. Thank you to the great friends at Sports Interactive, the great team behind FM26, which is now out worldwide across platforms. Step into the dugout and change the game.

[C]

Alright, first up, let's start with what the right is saying. The right is mixed on Trump's handling of the economy, with some saying he needs more time to let his policies play out. Others say the economy is showing real signs of weakness. Still others suggest Trump's messaging on the economy must improve. In USA Today, Nicole Russell wrote, trump's tariffs and trade policies will improve the economy. Give him time. The economy is America's engine and it must run well. Trump promised to jumpstart it again the conservative way trim federal government excess, boost free markets and deregulate so businesses can thrive. For the most part, this is happening even though it's a slow process, russell said. Like many Republicans, I'm not entirely down on the economy. I think perspective matters. Change is coming and patience is required. Trump's reciprocal tariffs and new trade policies have fundamentally reshaped America's economy, hopefully for the better. When I look around at the indicators of a strong economy, we have a lot of them. Inflation is hovering around 3%, which is a significant improvement from June 2022, when it was at 9.1%. This is yet another reason to avoid the tariff stimulus checks. The stock market remains at record highs. Unemployment remains relatively low. The growth rate for the gross domestic product in the second quarter is 3.8%. Wages are rising. Home ownership has only slightly declined, russell wrote. Collectively, these data points make me question Democrats overall cynicism about the economy. The Washington examiner editorial board said happy talk won't solve economic anxiety Asked by Laura Ingraham on Fox News, why are people saying they are anxious about the economy? Trump rejected the premise of the question. I don't think they're saying that. I think polls are fake, he said. The board wrote voters who buy increasingly expensive groceries and don't like it will remember that Biden said the same thing right before Trump cantered to victory in the 2024 elections. If Trump wants Republicans to prevent the party from being pummeled in 2026, he needs to drop the happy talk and change course, particularly on tariffs, before it's too late. There are some narrow areas where the economy has greatly improved. The price of eggs and gasoline are way down, but the prices of beef, coffee, auto repairs and housing are all rising. And Trump's responses either admit that tariffs are the problem or would make the situation worse. The board said. Trump's $2,000 tariff dividend is also a terrible idea that will make the economy worse. How is it any different than the Biden stimulus payments that everyone agrees caused the worst inflation crisis in a generation? In the Federalist, Eddie Scarry argued Trump should learn from JD Vance when it comes to talking about prices and affordability MAGA people are nearly in tears of rage this week for good reason. After watching Trump repeatedly declare all is well on the home front while he gallivants around the White House grounds with foreign leaders showing them his latest gold trimmed renovation. Scarry wrote the current president would be forgiven for the cost of basic needs not having dropped back to where they were in 2019, just a year into his second term. Getting even close to that is going to take time, but I don't want to hear about the affordability is unacceptable to everyone who put him in office precisely because the last president blew off the same problem. Just two weeks ago, Vice President J.D. vance was saying all the right things as they relate to the economy. We're nine months into this thing and we've done a lot of good, he said in an interview with the New York Post's Miranda Devine. And then he asserted the administration's proper ownership of the problem at hand. Scary said obviously more is expected than just acknowledgement that people continue taking on credit card debt and staking out second jobs just to keep up with their bills. But at a minimum, it's demanded of the president to assure everyone that he isn't just having a good time with dignitaries in his eternal quest to secure Nobel Peace Prize. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. The left says Trump is ignoring clear economic warning signs and denying his role in the problem. Some say Trump is overseeing an economy that works only for the top 1%. Others suggest Trump's economic perception problems bear similarities to Biden's. In the Boston Globe, Renee Graham wrote, Trump believes affordability is a con job by the Democrats. He's wrong. During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump claimed, when I win, I will immediately bring prices down starting on day one. But it's been the opposite. Prices have gone up since his return to the White House, with groceries about 2.7% higher in September than they were a year earlier, Graham said. That's why White House advisors are talking to Trump about spending less time globetrotting and more time talking to American voters about what he's to pull this nation out of an economic stupor exacerbated by the president's reckless tariffs. Similar cluelessness helped crush George H.W. bush's reelection chances in 1992. A New York Times story that said Bush was amazed by a supermarket barcode scanner gave the impression that the then president had never been in a grocery store before, Graham wrote. Trump generally seems to believe that if he repeats a lie often enough, repetition becomes fact. But here are the facts. Grocery prices are going up and people are hurting. If Trump believes his economy is the greatest we've ever had, let him make that argument in a supermarket aisle where he'll meet Americans who are hurting because he causes them pain. In the New Yorker, John Cassidy argued Trump can't dodge the costly K shaped economy Even before his U turn on food tariffs, Trump had been scrambling to roll out his own affordability proposals. He's talked about creating 50 year mortgages, depositing federal money directly into personal health savings accounts and handing out $2,000 tariff dividends, Cassidy said. In the past five years or so, rising prices have largely eaten up wage gains, leaving low and middle income Americans, many of whom voted for Trump, struggling to make ends meet. Simultaneously, a soaring stock market and rising real estate prices have generated more than $50 trillion in new wealth, much of which has accumulated among the richest 10% of American households. This disjunction, which many observers refer to as the K shaped economy, predates Trump, but his policies, along with the AI bubble on Wall street, have only accentuated it, Cassidy said. Try as you will, Trump can't easily disassociate himself or his party from a costly K shaped economy. Even after his reversal on beef and other foodstuff tariffs, most of his levies remain in place and millions of Americans are facing a year end leap in the cost of health insurance. None of the schemes he has recently floated are adequate to address the affordability challenge, and his healthcare proposal could well make things a lot worse. In his substack, Paul Krugman asked, why does a good economy sometimes feel bad? Donald Trump continues to claim that grocery prices are way down, yet anyone who does their own food shopping, unlike Trump, can tell you that Trump's statement is false, krugman said. That said, although the US Economy isn't performing as well as Trump claims, there is a disconnect. By conventional measures, it isn't doing badly enough to justify the extremely negative views Americans currently hold. The last economic numbers available delivered before the shutdown showed unemployment at 4.3% and inflation at 3%. These are both decent numbers from a historical perspective. Many observers have compared Trump's predicament with the problems faced by the Biden administration, whose attempts to highlight good economic data alienated many voters who felt that their concerns weren't being taken seriously. In one important way, this is false equivalence. Biden and his officials were pointing to actual data that indeed seemed to paint a relatively positive picture of the economy. Trump and company, by contrast, are simply lying, Krugman said. Now we have two presidencies in a row in which Americans are far more negative about the economy than the usual measures would have predicted. All right, let's head over to Ari for his take.

[F]

Thanks for that introduction, John. So last week, President Donald Trump said that prices are way down and that, quote, affordability is a scam made up by Democrats. To be clear, prices aren't down. But I can appreciate his frustration. Right now, based on some larger traditional indicators, the economy isn't in bad shape. The latest economic numbers released before the government shutdown showed 3% inflation as measured by the consumer price index, and 2.7% as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure Futures Index. Historically, those numbers are pretty decent, just over the 20 year average of 2.6%. Meanwhile, the August unemployment rate was 4.3%, which is also under the 20 year average. And Q3 GDP growth was an estimated 3.8%, which would be above the fabled 2019 economy. Even the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, which would spur even more growth, is a healthy sign. Yes, Powell hedged over December's upcoming decision, but if the bank's policymakers were that concerned about inflation, they wouldn't have cut rates at all. And yet consumer sentiment is at 50. That's lower than it was during the 2008 financial crash, and it's lower than it was when inflation was at its highest peak under Biden. The parallel to President Biden invites itself further. Despite overseeing pretty good economies relative to our global peers and historical benchmarks, the public is not satisfied with the current economic state of affairs. The vibes are off. Could Trump be experiencing the dreaded vibe session that haunted Biden? Maybe the economy's actually running well and the public is just dissatisfied with something that's impossible to define. But the public's dissatisfaction is possible to define, and these historical indicators don't tell the whole story. Wage growth has not caught up to inflation in the four years since the pandemic, and the story really could be that simple. According to a study from Bankrate, wages have lagged behind inflation by 1.2 percentage points since prices first started to surge. Brookings finds that annualized pay growth since the start of 2021 is down 0.46%. That could explain why the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index dipped below 80 after the pandemic and has never really recovered since. All the healthy historic indicators in the world won't make a difference to people when they are just sending more money out of their households than they're taking in, and they've been doing so year after year. Add in some recent news and the outlook gets worse. Snap funds temporarily lapsed for struggling households during the government shutdown. The nation's largest employers, Amazon, Walmart, the federal government, are either warning of coming layoffs or in the case of the government, aggressively making cuts right now. Meanwhile, health care costs continue to run away, car insurance is through the roof, energy costs are spiking, and dangling over all of our heads is the shoe that we're still waiting to drop. Tariff Induced inflation On suspension of the rules last week, Isaac said that Trump doesn't really have an answer to affordability concerns and that Democrats showed that at the ballot box. My response was that Trump does have an answer, it just hasn't been working or hasn't been working yet. And I think I can sum up his response in three points. First is the power of his record. Trump ran on the pre pandemic economy and he was reelected in no small part for that success. GDP growth was humming along at 2.9% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019. Unemployment was at a 50 year low. Inflation adjusted median household income was at an all time high. Trump's reelection brought the promise of a return to this not too distant past, and some early indicators reflected that optimism. The market spiked in January, as did consumer sentiment. If the VIBE session were truly only vibes, that could have been the end of it. But with persistent inflation and tepid wage growth, economic woes continued and the same record that got Trump back to the White House is now a millstone around his neck, weighing him down with expectations he may not be able to match. So that's first. Second is his tax policy or simply tariffs. Trump sees a way to get the best of both worlds by making his first term tax cuts permanent while maintaining federal spending on Social Security and the military without making any meaningful cuts to the above. He wants to balance the budget by trimming what he sees as fat. A Consumer Financial Protection Bureau here, usaid there perhaps a cut to an entitlement program in housing or nutrition or healthcare along the way. And he's dialing up federal revenue through tariffs to address the shortfall. The most beautiful world in the dictionary is tariff is what Trump said on the campaign trail. And he wants to use tariffs to solve everything. He wants to increase taxes on imports to raise revenue and spur domestic manufacturing to mitigate inflationary concerns. He's pushing importers to eat the cost. And if our trading partners cry foul. He simply uses tariffs as a bargaining tool to negotiate for more investment in US Industries. His big bet is that he can use tariffs to spur enough investment and replace enough taxation revenue to grow the economy back to 2019 levels, outpacing both inflation and the courts along the way. But so far, the data shows that tariffs are hurting us more than they're helping. Yes, the tariff shoe hasn't dropped in the form of a giant inflationary spike, but inflation has remained elevated month after month after month. Yes, Trump has secured some trade deals, but the uncertainty created by shifting tax policy has arguably done more to disrupt manufacturing investment than tariffs have done to encourage it. Yes, the annualized boost of $195 billion in tariff revenue is substantial, but that benefit doesn't outweigh the cost to importers and to consumers. And it will be hard to replicate as the courts are poised to strike down some of its implementation methods. Third and finally, is Trump's grab bag of populist policies Right now, the administration's headline suggestions the 50 year mortgage and the $2,000 dividend checks. Some of the Treasury Department and White House support cold water on the 50 year mortgage plan, which is great. It's a terrible idea. It would have pushed housing prices even higher and trapped people in debt for longer. And the less we have to talk about that, the better. As for the $2,000 checks, the idea makes marginally more sense. Marginally. Trump's popularity spiked when he cut checks to US Citizens as a pandemic stimulus. But that was at the start of the pandemic, when we needed a stimulus because our economy had ground to a HAL. Sending a $2,000 dividend makes little sense when inflation is a background concern and when the government is on its way to another deficit of over $1 trillion in the current fiscal year and counting on that tariff revenue to offset spending. So how are those three planks of the Trump economic platform holding up? Not very well. The rosy post inauguration feeling? It's gone. Tariffs look to be doing more harm than good, and the populist policies are ill timed and ill conceived. Energy, housing and healthcare costs remain high and show no signs of dropping on their own. The Trump response to affordability desperately needs to pivot. For starters, the president needs to admit that consumer prices are a real concern. That's something his predecessor failed to do to his peril. And it's something that his vice president is doing aptly to his credit. Then the White House needs to develop a more cohesive plan than checks, tariffs. And trust me, if the government doesn't provide a course correction. The market will. And policy corrections are typically much friendlier than market corrections.

[E]

All right, that is it for Ari's take, which gives me an opportunity to offer my dissent. So here's what I'll say about everything Ari just offered. I'm not convinced that Trump has to pivot, actually. If anything, I think that the economic sentiment that we're talking about today reflects how Americans feel about the economy. Biden left us. Trump is barely 10 months into his presidency. The effects of his economic policies, the tariffs, the tax cuts, the energy deregulation, they're only now just settling in. Tariff revenues alone could amount to 20% of our budget shortfall. I don't really know why Ari dismisses that as unimportant. I mean, it's, that's $200 billion. Foreign investment into the American private sector continues to skyrocket. Inflation is above average, but manageable. Unemployment is low. The stock market is at record highs. Wages are going up. These are good, strong indicators for Trump to run on. The Obamacare subsidy cliff is a real threat and I think Republicans have ample time to address it, and they should. But on the other side, there's this abundance movement that's ascendant on the left. And I think the President's actually gonna, from a bipartisan group of political leaders relentlessly focused on housing and healthcare affordability across the country, take a place like California. Gavin Newsom introduces this kind of abundance minded policy to reduce the cost of housing. If that works, then people in California are going to think the cost of housing is going down because it is. And Trump would benefit from that, not because it's good for Democrats, so it's good for Trump. That's nonsensical, but because there's tens of millions of people in California who are going to feel the costs of living going down and that's going to improve economic sentiment. The current affordability crisis, to be clear, is real. I just don't think Trump has had enough time to address it. And I could see a world where his policies bear fruit. His messaging acumen kicks in, and in a year or two, the economy is once again a winning issue for him. And the. We'll be right back after this quick break.

[A]

The next evolution in football storytelling. Football Manager is back in our lives. Made with the unity engine for the first time, Football Manager 26 refreshes the managerial experience and sets the stage for you to define your football destiny. I still remember that one save where my non league squad went all the way to the Champions League final. It was pure heartbreak and extra time. But that's the magic of fm. Every decision, every tactic, every touch of the ball tells your story. Experience the richest match days in series history, complete with enhanced player movement, the full Premier League license, and for the first time ever, the women's game. Thank you to the great friends at Sports Interactive, the great team behind FM26, which is now out worldwide across platforms. Step into the dugout and change the game.

[B]

Hi, this is Robert Mays from the Athletic. This time of year always gets busy, but that's when having peloton in my life really makes a difference. The new Peloton Cross Training Tread plus, powered by Peloton iq, helps me fit in great workouts no matter what's on my schedule. It's Peloton's most advanced equipment yet, giving you real time guidance and endless ways to move. Peloton IQ plans your workouts, tracks your progress and corrects your your form so you can train smarter and make the most of your time. Let yourself run, lift, flex, push and go. Explore the new peloton cross training tread [e-mail].

[E]

All right, that's my dissent. Next up is your questions answered. This one is from Elliot in Austin, Texas. Elliot said, I haven't seen very much reporting on Trump's decision to fire the anti election interference departments within cisa. That's cisa. What are your thoughts on this and how it could impact future elections? Okay, so first of all, the Cyber Security and Infrastructure Security Agency is what we're talking about here. That's cisa. It is a division of the Department of Homeland Security, the DHS that focuses on protecting cybersecurity and infrastructure across all levels of government, including elections. Elections CISA oversees multiple election security teams responsible for a range of tasks from helping states and localities protect polling places from physical and cyber threats to sharing information to counter election myths and disinformation. President Trump has been reforming and downsizing the agency so far in his term. During the first few months of his presidency, cece's workforce was cut by about one third through a combination of targeted layoffs and and employees taking a DHS buyout offer. The administration has also cut CESA's election programs or frozen them for review, and in March, the agency said it will not release the results of that review. CESA's internal report, according to then acting CESA Director Bridget Bean, will focus on three streamlining the election security services that CISA offers to state and local governments, ensuring that its activities align with its new mandate to refocus on its core mission and removing all personnel, contracts, grants, programs, products, services and activities that conflict with Trump's anti censorship directive or exceed CESA's authorities. Some of the tasks that CISA could be scaling back would put future elections more at risk to potential sophisticated cyber attacks. Some cuts, like Election center assessments, could potentially be pushed to local authorities. Others, like real time incident responses and information sharing, would open up vulnerabilities to election fraud. The lack of public detail from CISA makes giving an informed opinion on the cuts difficult, which obviously is part of the problem. The cuts certainly could create wide vulnerabilities and in the absence of communication from the government, we have our concerns about the motivations for and consequences of these actions. All right, that is it for your reader question. I'm gonna send it back to John for the rest of the newsletter and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace.

[C]

Thanks Isaac. Here's your under the Radar story for today, folks. In August, Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Coogler abruptly resigned from her role without giving a reason, opening up a seat on the Federal Open Market Committee for President Trump to fill. Now more details behind Coogler's departure are beginning to come to light. According to a report by the Office of Government Ethics released Saturday, Coogler broke the Federal Reserve's rules on trading individual stocks and executing financial transactions close to FOMC meetings in the weeks leading up to her resignation. Coogler reportedly requested a waiver on a disclosure form that showed she had impermissible holdings, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell denied the request. Coogler then missed the FOMC's July meeting and announced her departure days later. A Federal Reserve official said concerns about Coogler and her husband's trading activity date back to at least September 2024. CNBC has this story, and there's a link in today's episode Description. Alright, next up is our numbers section. According to the Bureau of Labor statistics, the percent monthly increase in food prices in September was 0.2%. The percent annual increase in food prices between September 2024 and September 2025 was 3.1%. The percent monthly increase in energy prices in September was 1.5%. The percent annual increase in energy prices between September 2024 and September 2025 WAS 2.8%. According to an October 2025 CNN SSRS poll, 47% of U.S. adults say the economy and cost of living are the most important issues facing the United States. 28% of US adults say economic conditions in the US are good, while 72% say they are poor. In January 2025, 28% of US adults said economic conditions were good and 72% said they were poor. And according to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment, the change in consumer sentiment between November 2024 and November 2025 is -29.9%. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. Tens of thousands of satellites and other man made objects orbit Earth, meaning that objects occasionally end up on course to collide. A single collision could damage or destroy the involved satellites or even cause a catastrophic chain reaction. Historically, when a US Satellite and a Chinese satellite are on course for a collision, NASA has reached out to China and offered to conduct evasive maneuvers. But in early October, for the first time, the Chinese National Space Agency reached out to NASA about a potential collision and coordinated the avoidance maneuver itself. At a time when both the US And China are expanding the number of satellites in orbit, the development signals China's advancing capabilities and willingness to cooperate in outer space. Space.com has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description alright everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to readtangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. Don't forget to head over to our our YouTube channel where we just released our latest interview with Alex Thompson, the co author of the bestselling book Original Sin, where he talks with Isaac about the book and former President Joe Biden's mental decline, lessons the press should have learned from the scandal and who he thinks will run for president in 2028. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day y'.

[A]

All.

[E]

Peace Our Executive Editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul and our Executive producer is John. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, with Senior Editor Will K. Back and Associate Editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead Bailey, Saul, Lindsay Knuth and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our [e-mail].

[C]

Foreign.

[B]

Hi, this is Robert Mays from the Athletic. This time of year always gets busy, but that's when having peloton in my life really makes a difference. The new Peloton Cross Training Tread plus, powered by Peloton iq, helps me fit in great workouts no matter what's on my schedule. It's Peloton's most advanced equipment yet, giving you real time guidance and endless ways to move. Peloton IQ plans your workouts, tracks your progress and corrects your form so you can train smarter and make the most of your time. Let yourself run, lift, flex, push and go. Explore the new peloton cross training Tread.

[A]

[e-mail] the next evolution in Football Storytelling Football Manager is back in our lives. Made with the Unity engine for the first time, Football Manager 26 refreshes the managerial experience and sets the stage for you to define your football destiny. I still remember that one save where my non league squad went all the way to the Champions League final. It was pure heartbreak and extra time. But that's the magic of fm. Every decision, every tactic, every touch of the ball tells your story. Experience the richest match days in series history, complete with enhanced player movement, the full Premier League license, and for the first time ever, the women's game. Thank you to the great friends at Sports Interactive, the great team behind FM26, which is now out worldwide across platforms. Step into the dugout and change the game. Imagine the impact when everyone gets the.

[F]

Right tool for the job.

[A]

That's Odoo. Every app is designed to be easy to use, so employees spend less time learning the software and more time doing their jobs. Experience true speed, reduce data entry with smart AI and a fast UI. Check out [e-mail] that's O D O O.com moment.