Tangle Podcast Episode Summary

Episode Title: Is there an affordability crisis?
Host: Isaac Saul
Date: November 18, 2025

Main Theme: Is There an Affordability Crisis in the U.S.?

This episode of Tangle delves into whether the United States is experiencing an "affordability crisis," examining recent economic data, public sentiment, and the effectiveness of President Trump's new economic initiatives. The discussion features perspectives from both the left and right of the political spectrum, as well as in-depth analysis from Tangle’s Managing Editor Ari Weitzman and host Isaac Saul.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Economic Context & Policy Proposals

• President Trump has launched several measures aimed at addressing rising costs of living, including:
  • Tariff removals on certain agricultural products (coffee, cocoa, bananas) not widely produced in the U.S. ([06:56]).
  • Proposal for $2,000 "tariff dividends": Direct payments to Americans with income under $100,000, drawn from tariff revenues ([06:56]).
    • This plan would require congressional approval, and details remain unclear.
  • 50-year mortgage plan and direct HSA deposits have also been discussed by the administration but have yet to solidify.

2. Economic Indicators & Current Data

• Inflation: Monthly CPI rose 0.3% in September; annual inflation at 3% ([06:56]).
• Unemployment: Latest available data show 4.3%, below the 20-year average ([19:20]).
• GDP Growth: Q3 estimated at 3.8%, higher than 2019 pre-pandemic levels ([17:00], [19:20]).
• Interest rates: The Fed has cut rates twice in 2025, now at 3.75–4% ([06:56]).
• Stock market: At record highs.

3. Public Sentiment & "Vibecession"

• Despite healthy macroeconomic indicators, consumer sentiment is at historic lows—worse than during the 2008 crisis ([19:20]).
  • Reasons cited: Wage growth hasn't caught up to inflation post-pandemic; many Americans face higher costs for essentials, are taking on debt, or need extra jobs to get by ([19:20]).
  • Index Insight: University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is at 50 ([19:20]), a historic low.

4. Policy Analysis: Across the Spectrum

What the Right is Saying ([11:17])

• Mixed reviews of Trump’s approach:
  • Some urge patience, noting positive indicators like inflation down from 2022 highs, low unemployment, GDP growth, and rising wages.
    • Nicole Russell, USA Today:
      “Inflation is hovering around 3%, which is a significant improvement from June 2022, when it was at 9.1%... These data points make me question Democrats overall cynicism about the economy.” ([12:45])
  • Others criticize Trump’s messaging and tariff strategy.
    • Washington Examiner Editorial Board:
      “Trump needs to drop the happy talk and change course, particularly on tariffs, before it’s too late... Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividend is also a terrible idea that will make the economy worse. How is it any different than the Biden stimulus payments that everyone agrees caused the worst inflation crisis in a generation?” ([14:33])
  • Eddie Scarry, Federalist:
    Criticizes Trump for appearing out-of-touch, urges him to acknowledge continued unaffordability of basics—even if improvement takes time ([15:22]):
    • “At a minimum, it’s demanded of the president to assure everyone that he isn’t just having a good time with dignitaries in his eternal quest to secure Nobel Peace Prize.”

What the Left is Saying

• Focus on growing inequality and denial of real hardship:
  • Renee Graham, Boston Globe:
    “During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump claimed, ‘when I win, I will immediately bring prices down starting on day one.’ But it’s been the opposite. Prices have gone up since his return… If Trump believes his economy is the greatest we’ve ever had, let him make that argument in a supermarket aisle.” ([16:44])
  • John Cassidy, New Yorker:
    Argues that Trump's policies have worsened a “K-shaped” recovery—benefitting the wealthy via stock and real estate booms, while wage gains fail to keep pace with costs for most.
    • “None of the schemes he has recently floated are adequate to address the affordability challenge, and his healthcare proposal could well make things a lot worse.” ([17:53])
  • Paul Krugman (Substack):
    Identifies a disconnect between data and lived experience, but accuses Trump of misrepresenting economic conditions.
    • “Trump and company, by contrast, are simply lying...Now we have two presidencies in a row in which Americans are far more negative about the economy than the usual measures would have predicted.” ([18:42])

5. Ari Weitzman's Analysis ([19:20])

Core Arguments:

• Traditional indicators show a healthy economy: inflation is historically average, unemployment is low, and growth is solid.
• But:
  • Consumer sentiment is abysmal.
  • Wages have not kept up with post-pandemic inflation; households feel the squeeze ([20:45])
    • "All the healthy historic indicators in the world won't make a difference to people when they are just sending more money out of their households than they're taking in, and they've been doing so year after year." ([21:45])
  • Federal policy responses (tariffs, stimulus checks, 50-year mortgages) are either not working or risk worsening the issue.
  • Calls for the administration to admit the seriousness of affordability and establish a more comprehensive policy than “checks, tariffs, and trust me” ([25:54]):
    • “The Trump response to affordability desperately needs to pivot. For starters, the president needs to admit that consumer prices are a real concern. That’s something his predecessor failed to do to his peril.” ([25:49])

6. Isaac Saul’s Dissent ([27:03])

• Argues for giving Trump’s policies more time to take effect (“barely 10 months into his presidency”).
• Asserts that many strong indicators (stock market, wage growth, low unemployment) provide a positive base.
• Points out that bipartisan, “abundance-minded” approaches—inspired by measures in states like California—could help affordability regardless of party.
• Acknowledges the reality of rising costs but is optimistic that if Trump’s messaging and policies take hold, “the economy is once again a winning issue for him” within a year or two ([28:55]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ari Weitzman ([21:45]):
  "All the healthy historic indicators in the world won't make a difference to people when they are just sending more money out of their households than they're taking in, and they've been doing so year after year."

• Washington Examiner Editorial ([14:33]):
  "Trump needs to drop the happy talk and change course, particularly on tariffs, before it’s too late."

• Renee Graham, Boston Globe ([16:44]):
  "If Trump believes his economy is the greatest we've ever had, let him make that argument in a supermarket aisle where he'll meet Americans who are hurting because he causes them pain."

• Isaac Saul ([27:25]):
  "I just don't think Trump has had enough time to address it. And I could see a world where his policies bear fruit...and in a year or two, the economy is once again a winning issue for him."

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:12] – Isaac Saul sets up the day’s topic and context.
• [06:56] – Summary of Trump’s recent economic actions and context for current policy debate.
• [11:17] – Analysis of “what the right is saying.”
• [16:44] – Analysis of “what the left is saying.”
• [19:20] – Ari Weitzman’s in-depth economic analysis.
• [27:03] – Isaac Saul’s dissent and counterpoint.
• [30:51] – Listener question on the Cyber Security and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).
• [33:28] – Additional news and data (numbers section).

Other Noteworthy Points

• Listener Question Segment ([30:51]):

  • Discusses recent layoffs and restructuring at the Cyber Security and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the potential implications for U.S. election security.
  • “Some of the tasks that CISA could be scaling back would put future elections more at risk to potential sophisticated cyber attacks.” —Isaac Saul

• Closing Note:

  • Reiterates significant public concern about the economy despite data, pointing to a crucial disconnect that remains a political and policy challenge.

Summary Table: Key Economic Data

| Indicator | Latest Value | Notes | |-------------------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------------------------| | Inflation (CPI, Sep 2025) | 0.3% (monthly), 3% (yr) | Below 2022 peak, but persistent increases | | Unemployment (Aug 2025) | 4.3% | Below 20-year average | | GDP Growth (Q3 2025, est.) | 3.8% | Above 2019 pre-pandemic levels | | Consumer Sentiment Index | 50 | Lower than during 2008 crisis | | Stock Market | Record high | Positive for participants, not universal | | Wage Growth (since 2021) | Lagging inflation by 1.2% | Many households falling behind |

Final Takeaway

The episode underscores a persistent paradox: traditional numbers suggest an economy on the mend—or even booming—while public opinion and household realities point to continued crisis. The administration’s answers (tariffs, cash payments, deregulatory moves) are questioned by both the left and right, and the Tangle team urges a more forthright, practical acknowledgment of the real squeeze on everyday Americans.

Quote to sum up the episode:
"The economy may be running well on paper, but Americans are feeling the pinch every day. Until leadership admits that, and crafts policy accordingly, no amount of good data will fix the vibes—or the reality." — Ari Weitzman ([26:50])