Tangle Podcast Summary

Episode: Kevin Warsh tapped for Fed chair
Date: February 3, 2026
Host: Senior Editor Will K. Back (filling in for Isaac Saul)
Theme: Examining President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, exploring partisan reactions, Warsh’s background, and possible implications for Fed independence and monetary policy.

Episode Overview

The episode addresses President Donald Trump’s selection of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The host breaks down the politics behind the nomination, the contentious relationship between Trump and the Fed, and how Warsh’s leadership might impact monetary policy and Fed independence during a period of political and economic tension.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background: Trump, the Fed, and the Warsh Nomination

• Current Context:

  • Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, replacing Jerome Powell whose term expires in May 2026.
  • Warsh, former Fed governor during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, later became a visiting fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution.
  • The nomination faces Senate confirmation hurdles, including opposition from Sen. Thom Tillis (R), who demands the resolution of DOJ probes into Powell before advancement.
  • Trump’s contentious history with the Fed includes:
    • Criticizing Powell for slow rate cuts.
    • DOJ investigation into Powell for Fed HQ renovation mismanagement.
    • Attempted ouster of Governor Lisa Cook.

• Monetary Policy Climate:

  • The FOMC recently left benchmark rates unchanged (3.5%-3.75%) despite Trump’s public calls for sharp rate cuts.
  • Trump wants rates as low as 1% to stimulate the economy, opposed by current Fed majority.

• Warsh’s Credentials:

  • Youngest ever Fed governor (2006–2011), key player during the ’08 crisis.
  • Reputation for crisis management and for being critical of both excessively loose and tight monetary policy.
  • Known in policy circles as an “inflation hawk” and critic of Fed “mission creep.”

2. How the Right Sees the Warsh Nomination

Right-leaning media/voices generally supportive, emphasizing:

• Warsh as a course-corrector after Powell’s term; expected to restore "focus on price stability."
• Reduction of Fed’s balance sheet and limiting the Fed’s scope (“mission creep”).
• Some skepticism exists over whether Warsh can resist presidential pressure.

Notable Quotes:

• Wall Street Journal editorial board (13:15):
  “Mr. Warsh has... said that the central bank has taken on a broader role... This institutional drift, as he put it, has caused the Fed to lose the plot on its essential mandate, which is price stability.”

• National Review editors (14:04):
  “Warsh’s resume is indeed one from central casting... What makes it stand out is its chronology... as someone with experience and good connections on Wall Street, he was well equipped to navigate [the financial crisis]. The question... is how his longstanding hawkishness on inflation can be reconciled with the views of a president for whom it seems sometimes no interest rate can be too low.”

• Market Watch, Jai Kedia (15:43):
  “Warsh has also criticized the Fed’s mission creep, and he’s right to do so. The Fed cannot fix everything, and trying to do too much only serves to detract from its core mission. Warsh will be pressured by politicians to help with ballot box issues. He should stand firm on principles.”

3. How the Left Sees the Warsh Nomination

Left-leaning voices are divided:

• Some acknowledge Warsh’s competence but worry about political expediency and past misjudgments (ex: overly worried about inflation in 2008).
• Concerns about independence and whether Warsh would bend to Trump’s pressure.
• Skepticism about how much a new Chair can actually change, given FOMC constraints.

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Furman, Free Press (17:18):
  “Warsh... has the raw materials to be an excellent Fed chair. But success won’t hinge on technical mastery alone. The job demands all four [qualities]: independence, technocracy, leadership, humility.”

• Kathryn Rampell, NYT (18:43):
  “Let’s start with the good news: Mr. Warsh is a dramatically better option than some of the alternatives... But there are reasons to wonder if he still heeds [his 2010] words [about independence]. Among them, he has abandoned some of his long held views just in time to audition for Fed chair.”

• Roger W. Ferguson Jr. & Maximilian Hippold, Council on Foreign Relations (20:39):
  “If the president expects a dramatic transformation at the Fed that will lead to significant interest rate cuts, he’s likely to be disappointed. Financial markets and economic realities will impose strict limits on the next chair... More plausible than a revolutionary Fed is a chair who communicates differently and echoes Trump’s views... without implementing his most radical ideas.”

4. Host’s Take: Will K. Back’s Analysis

Summary of Concerns and Nuance:

• Trump’s high-profile handling of the Fed chair pick is unusual and brings rarely discussed issues (like Fed independence) to the forefront.
• Warsh’s selection is greeted with "relief" in some circles — "more by who Warsh is not rather than who he is" (24:00).
• Warsh’s inflation-fighting stance could put him at odds with Trump’s desire for ultra-low rates.
• Warsh supports growth via tax cuts, deregulation, and AI-driven productivity gains, and believes controlling inflation can be achieved via reducing the Fed’s balance sheet rather than simply raising rates.
• Host is skeptical about the practical challenges and market risk of reducing the balance sheet quickly, and whether Warsh has the “political courage and policy conviction” such a shift would require (27:17).
• Ultimately, FOMC structure may prevent radical changes regardless of the chair—“even if Trump gets everything he wants from Warsh, the interest rate could still stay higher than he wants, and Trump couldn’t do much about that” (28:03).
• The confirmation process is likely to be bruising; final approval is not guaranteed.

Memorable Moments:

• “Trump’s attacks on the Fed have made this pick feel existential... the most common reaction to Warsh’s selection was relief, driven more by who Warsh is not rather than who he is.” (24:00)
• On the challenges ahead: “Reducing the balance sheet would require rapidly selling assets, a move that likely would destabilize markets... it’s another entirely to argue it from the chair... such a monumental policy shift requires ‘political courage and policy conviction.’ Does he possess those qualities? We simply won’t know until we see him in action.” (27:17)
• “We shouldn’t get comfortable with these kinds of attacks on the central bank, nor should we assess Warsh uncritically just because he was a less extreme choice.” (29:00)

Important Segment Timestamps

| Time | Segment | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:17 | Opening overview & context for Warsh nomination | | 04:40 | Recap of Trump-Fed conflict & Warsh background | | 08:30 | Senate and political context; opposition to confirmation | | 11:14 | Right’s perspective, major conservative arguments and concerns | | 17:18 | Left’s perspective, concerns, and tempered optimism | | 24:00 | Host’s main analysis: relief over Warsh, his potential for independence, challenges| | 27:17 | Discussion of market risks and practical hurdles to Warsh’s policy preferences | | 29:00 | Broader reflection on Fed independence and political pressure |

Additional Segments

Audience Q&A (31:12)

• Question: Why post about the Epstein files when Elon Musk is named in them? Will Tangle cover all the documents?
• Answer: The DOJ files include emails, tips, and other materials, some unsubstantiated or lacking evidence of criminal conduct. Media coverage must remain cautious and avoid amplifying unsubstantiated claims.

Under the Radar & Good News Stories (32:30+)

• Expiry of the last US-Russia nuclear treaty (New START) and concerns about renewed arms proliferation.
• Crowdsourced example of animal cognition: “Veronica” the Austrian cow demonstrates tool use, surprising researchers.

Notable Quotes

• “The question for Warsh... is how his longstanding hawkishness on inflation can be reconciled with the views of a president for whom it seems sometimes no interest rate can be too low.”
  — National Review Editors (14:38)

• “Success won’t hinge on technical mastery alone. It will depend on whether he can meet four tests of judgment and temperament.”
  — Jason Furman in Free Press (17:28)

• “Warsh’s selection was relief, driven more by who Warsh is not rather than who he is.”
  — Will K. Back, Host (24:00)

• “Such a monumental policy shift requires ‘political courage and policy conviction’. Does he possess those qualities? We simply won’t know until we see him in action.”
  — Will K. Back, Host (27:17)

Conclusion

The episode provides a thorough, nuanced analysis of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair, delving into his background, the current political struggles around Fed independence, and the policy shifts he might pursue. Both left and right remain cautious, debating Warsh’s likely actions in the face of White House pressure and systemic constraints. The host concludes that, while Warsh is qualified and less concerning than some other candidates, his leadership will be tested by both market realities and ongoing political drama. The Fed’s independence—and America’s unique political climate—remain very much in the balance.