John Law (10:53)
Alright? First up, a note of agreement. Writers on the right and the left share concerns that the cooling labor market is an increasingly urgent problem. And now for what the right is saying. The right's view on the report is mixed, but many worry that the negative effects of Trump's tariffs are coming to bear. Some note that wage growth continues to be positive despite the struggling job market. Others say Trump must make improving the economy his priority going forward. The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote about the Trump summer job Nearly all of the new jobs last month were in social assistance and healthcare, 46,800, which rely on government spending. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing -12,000 and wholesale trade -11,700, the board said. Mr. Trump blamed the Federal Reserve, as he always does, and he told Americans to look for the real jobs numbers a year from now, when companies supposedly finish building new plants. The jobs report probably does lock in a 25% basis point cut in interest rates this month. What Mr. Trump needs is a broad revival in business confidence of the kind that accompanied his November victory and appeared before his tax on imports and willy nilly interventions in private business decisions. Repeat after US Tariffs are taxes and taxes hurt economic growth, the board wrote. Mr. Trump this week asked the Supreme Court to hear the legal challenge to his tariffs on a fast track. The best news for the economy would be if the court takes up this challenge and finds them unconstitutional. In hot Air, Ed Morrissey explored curious aspects of the jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy only added 22,000 jobs in August, with revisions. That means that the US only created 88,000 jobs in the entire summer, and that will undoubtedly put pressure on Donald Trump to either adjust his approach or or find job creating investments, stat. Morrissey said. At the same time, however, wages continued moving upward. This seems very curious indeed. Why are wages still increasing above the current rate of inflation after three months and arguably five months of flat job creation growth? This isn't necessarily just a shift of departing immigrants and replacement by legal workers either. BLS calls the unemployment rate essentially flat, and that's mainly correct. But that U3 measure is ticking up slightly at 4.3%, Morrissey wrote. One would expect either wages or working hours to drop, but working hours are steady, overtime dropped a bit and these wage numbers look pretty good. It's a little mystifying. Replacement of illegal workers by legal workers might explain it, but if that were the case, we'd see drops in the civilian workforce numbers. Instead, we added nearly half a million workers in the household. Data in the Federalist, Christopher Jacobs said if Republicans don't get the economy right, all the other wins will be in vain. Donald Trump won re election over Harris in large part because voters remembered the positive economy and specifically the robust income growth during his first term as opposed to the Bidenflation of the past four years. If Republicans showed the same complacency as Democrats did on the economy last year, they could become the next ones to take the electoral hit, jacobs wrote. While political leaders often have to react to unexpected events like the recent Minneapolis school shooting, they can also choose when and where to engage. Unfortunately, the economy does not always appear to rank high on Republicans priority list. The ongoing price increases help explain why consumer confidence took a hit during August and why, according to the Wall Street Journal, more US Consumers now say they're dialing down spending than when inflation spiked in 2022, a bad omen heading into the midterms next year, Jacobs said the entire administration must spend every day convincing the American people that they are doing everything in their power to help families get ahead, for they ignore the economy stupid at their peril. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. Many on the left say the signs of a weak economy validate the Fed's cautious approach. Some blame Trump's economic policies for the state of the labor market. Others suggest the economy is becoming a political liability for Trump. In Bloomberg, Jonathan Levin wrote, the Fed saw these job numbers coming. Policymakers are doing an impressively decent job at forecasting an inherently unpredictable economy that's undergoing major changes from trade and immigration policies and the emergence of artificial intelligence. Levin said it may be premature to expect rapid fire rate cuts. Recall that the same policymakers who projected 4.5% unemployment and 3.1% core inflation also predicted two rate cuts this year and one in 2026. Yet following Friday's payrolls report, investors and financial pundits started contemplating the possibility of a 0.5 percentage point rate cut this month. The most alarming statistic in Friday's data dump was the meager 22,000 increase in non farm payrolls in August and the downward revisions to the previous month's data. All told, payroll growth has averaged 29,000amonth in the past three reporting periods, a pace that feels perilously close to stall speed, levin wrote. At the same time, estimates of break even job growth, the amount of job creation needed to keep unemployment steady have dropped precipitously due to declines in net immigration resulting from border policies and deportations. In msnbc, Heather Boshay suggested Trump should blame himself for the labor market struggles after last month's similarly anemic report. President Donald Trump claimed that the jobs numbers were rigged and fired Bureau of Labor statistics commissioner Erica McIntarfer. But the facts don't lie and the data is reliable even with the firing of the BLS commissioner, at least for the moment, boucher said. Rather than blame the bls, Trump should blame himself. His policies are creating challenges on both the supply and demand sides of the economy, affecting Americans in their roles as workers as well as consumers. To zoom in a bit more, the population of immigrant workers has declined by 1.2 million since January. The administration's economic agenda is driving up uncertainty and making everyday decisions for American businesses and consumers more difficult. Businesses can't plan ahead, the manufacturing sector has shrunk for six straight months and American workers are paying the price, boucher said. Whether we'll continue to have reliable data from the BLS is an open question as well. Trump's nominee to replace MacIntarfer, E.J. antony, has urged officials to take a chainsaw to the BLS and suggested we suspend the jobs report altogether. If that wasn't concern enough, on Friday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett assured the nation that next month the data will be revised upward. In the New York Times, Jess Bidgood asked, will Trump have to run from the economy? Last year, Donald Trump couldn't stop talking about the economy. As a presidential candidate, he assailed Democrats for inflation and rode the persistent malaise over the high cost of living right back to the White House, promising swift relief even though economists warned that his plans could actually drive prices higher, bidgood wrote. Today's lackluster jobs numbers are a reminder of how quickly the issue could present him and his party with political peril as elections approach. The president has a problem. A recent Gallup poll found that his approval rating on the economy fell to 37% in August from 42% in February. That's a steep drop from his average approval rating on the economy during his first term, which was 52%, Bidgood said. Indeed, Trump is already working hard to make sure the midterms are about anything other than the economy. He has openly said that he believes his crackdown on crime in Washington, which he has said he intends to expand to cities like Chicago and perhaps New Orleans, will play well for him next fall. Alright, let's head over to Isaac for His take.
