Loading summary
Transcript28 lines
- [00:00]
Commercial Narrator
Imagine a world of extraordinary comfort where Boland Branch Bedding wraps you in the softest. Embrace the coziest experience made from the world's finest 100% organic cotton, all so you can sleep better. Start building your fall sanctuary with Bolin Branch's iconic signature sheets made with a buttery, breathable weave that gets softer with every wash. Enjoy 15% off your first set of sheets with free shipping and returns at B O L L& Branch.com with code BUTTERY. See site for details and exclusions.
- [00:34]
Howie Mandel
There's the part of me that everyone sees. I'm Howie Mandel, the comedian. Apparently I know what funny is. Funny. He bought me a house. But I also know what isn't funny. Ocd. I've lived with OCD my entire life and people throw the term around like it's no big deal. But OCD is severe, often debilitating. It's a mental health condition that involves unrelented unwanted thoughts that can make you question your character, your beliefs, even your safety. General therapy can help with some things, but for ocd, it can actually make things worse. That's why I want to tell you about nocd. NOCD is the world's largest treatment provider for OCD and is covered by insurance for over 155 million Americans. Their licensed therapists specialize in ERP, the most effective treatment for OCD. If you think you might be struggling with OCD, go to nocd.com to book a free 15 minute call. Then they are here to help.
- [01:32]
Commercial Narrator
Did you know adults 60+ lose more than $60 billion each year to financial exploitation? Greenlight's new Family Shield plan empowers you to monitor your accounts for suspicious activity, protect yourself with up to $1 million identity theft coverage, and reassure loved ones that you're safe with location sharing and place alerts. Get peace of mind today@greenlight.com protect that's greenlight.com protect foreign.
- [02:05]
Isaac Saul
This is tangle. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul. Today is Tuesday, September 9th and we are covering the August jobs report. We're going to share some views from the left and the right. Actually, right before publication of the newsletter and this podcast we got a breaking news report that we're going to have to wrestle with a little bit because, I mean, it doesn't substantially change the take or some of the arguments, but it's certainly more context that I think is important. Before we jump into any of that, though, I want to give you a quick heads up that we just published a new video on our YouTube channel last week about whether we can actually fix our primary system. As you might have noticed, Congress is increasingly polarized and the situation just seems to be getting worse. People have been asking is there anything we can do to reverse course? And reforming our primaries, the process by which we select candidates to run for public office, is one easy way to change things. Easy in the sense that it's simple, not easy in the sense that it's likely or something that we can just make happen by snapping our fingers. Anyway, in our latest YouTube video, we break down the US primary system, explaining how it increases political polarization and what some states are doing to make a change. You can check out that video by looking up tangle news on YouTube. All right, with that, I'm going to send it over to John for today's main pod and I'll be back for my take.
- [03:52]
John Law
Thanks, Isaac, and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, Israel carried out an airstrike targeting Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar. The fate of the targets is not yet known. The Wall Street Journal published an image of a drawing and a letter bearing President Donald Trump's signature included in a birthday book given to Jeffrey Epstein in 2003. The image comes from a copy of a book given to Congress by lawyers and for Epstein's estate. The White House maintained that President Trump did not draw the image or sign the letter. 3 the Murdoch family reached an agreement to consolidate control of the family's media empire, which includes Fox News, the New York Post and the Wall street journal with Rupert Murdoch's son Lachlan, while paying out over $1 billion to each of Rupert's other children in return for their voting shares in the business. Number four, the Department of Homeland Security announced it is launching an immigration enforcement operation in Chicago called Operation Midway Blitz, targeting unauthorized immigrants with criminal records living in the city and surrounding areas. At number five, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Kane visited Puerto Rico amid reports that the Pentagon is considering involving the U.S. territory in regional military operations targeting drug cartels.
- [05:18]
Ari Weitzman
Last week's disappointing jobs report is sparking concerns about the health of the US.
- [05:22]
Isaac Saul
Economy and was the talk of the.
- [05:23]
Ari Weitzman
Sunday show's National Economic Council. Director Kevin Hassett is calling for reforms in how jobs data is calculated.
- [05:30]
Isaac Saul
And the reason we're getting these massive revisions and these numbers that don't make sense is really that we've got to modernize the way we do the labor data. But if you look at the non labor data, you know second quarter GDP was revised up to 3.3%. The Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate for the third quarter right is 3% and so industrial production is at an all time high. The thing that I'm most suspicious of right now in terms of data quality is the job number in part because there are other ways to do it.
- [06:00]
John Law
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non farm payroll employment increased by 22,000 in August, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.2 to 4.3. The health care sector accounted for roughly 31,000 new jobs, but declining employment in the federal government, manufacturing and professional services offset some of those gains. The BLS also revised June's employment numbers down by 27,000 and July's numbers up by 6,000. Separately, on Tuesday, the BLS reported that the US added 911,000 fewer jobs between March 2024 and March 2025 than previously estimated, adding to concerns about the health of the job market. The jobs report is the first issued since President Donald Trump fired former BLS commissioner Erica McIntarfer and nominated Heritage foundation economist E.J. antoni to replace her. William Wiatrowski is currently serving as acting BLS commissioner while Antoni awaits a confirmation hearing. The 22,000 jobs added were notably lower than economists expectations for August, according to a Dow Jones survey. Many economists said the latest employment numbers signal a stagnant job market and increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its September meeting. The warning bell that rang in the labor market a month ago just got louder. A weaker than expected jobs report all but seals a 25 basis point rate cut later this month. Olu Sonola, head of US Economic research at Bitch Rating, said four straight months of manufacturing job losses stand out. Trump administration officials gave a mixed response to the latest jobs numbers. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett acknowledged that the numbers were a little bit disappointing, but said he expects them to be revised upward in future months, noting the BLS's ongoing struggles with decreasing response rates to employment surveys. Other government officials criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for his economic management and resistance to lowering interest rates. Labor Secretary Laurie Chavez de Remer said Jerome Powell should be embarrassed by this report because he has not done his job. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant wrote, the US Faces short and medium term economic challenges along with the long term consequences of a central bank that has placed its own independence in jeopardy. President Trump added to his long standing criticism of Powell writing on Truth Social Jerome Too late. Powell should have lowered rates a long time ago. As usual, he's too late. Today we'll explore reactions from the right and the left to the latest employment numbers and then Isaac's take.
- [08:37]
Isaac Saul
We'll be right back after this quick break. Cooler temps are rolling in and as always, Quince is where I'm turning for fall staples that actually last. From cashmere to denim to boots, the quality holds up and the price still blows me away. Quince is all the kinds of fall staples you'll wear nonstop, like Mongolian cashmere sweaters that start at just $60. Their denim is durable and fits right. They're real leather jackets, which I'm not nearly cool enough to wear. They bring that clean, classic edge without the elevated price tag. This past summer I became a huge linen guy thanks to Quince. I bought up all their best linen shirts and now the fall's here so I'm getting pants, sweaters, longer tees, all the good stuff that I need. Keep it classic and cool. This with long lasting staples from quince. Go to quince.comtangle for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns, which I've used before. That's Quince Q-U-I-N C E.comtangle free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.comtangle this episode of Tangle is brought to you by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from Frozen Subscription box for artisanal breads, seasonal pastries and fresh pastas. Plus all items conveniently bake in 25 minutes or less. Before we decided to run this ad in Tangle, I told Wildgreen that I wanted to try the product. So they sent me a box and I have to say I was pretty much blown away. They have everything from apple cider donuts and pumpkin cinnamon biscuits to perfectly fresh sourdough bread. This fall, treat yourself and your loved ones to warm sourdough breads and seasonal baked goods from Wild Grain. Rumor has it, which I just confirmed, they have apple cider donuts and pumpkin cinnamon biscuits and you can get them before these items sell out. For a limited time, Wildgreen's offering our listeners $30 off the first box plus free croissants in every box when you go to wildgrain.comtangle to start your subscription. You heard me. Free croissants in every box and $30 off your box when you go to wildgrain.comtangle that's wildgrain.comtangle or you can use the promo code tangle at checkout. Don't miss their seasonal products.
- [10:53]
John Law
Alright? First up, a note of agreement. Writers on the right and the left share concerns that the cooling labor market is an increasingly urgent problem. And now for what the right is saying. The right's view on the report is mixed, but many worry that the negative effects of Trump's tariffs are coming to bear. Some note that wage growth continues to be positive despite the struggling job market. Others say Trump must make improving the economy his priority going forward. The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote about the Trump summer job Nearly all of the new jobs last month were in social assistance and healthcare, 46,800, which rely on government spending. Industries with high tariff exposure shed workers, including manufacturing -12,000 and wholesale trade -11,700, the board said. Mr. Trump blamed the Federal Reserve, as he always does, and he told Americans to look for the real jobs numbers a year from now, when companies supposedly finish building new plants. The jobs report probably does lock in a 25% basis point cut in interest rates this month. What Mr. Trump needs is a broad revival in business confidence of the kind that accompanied his November victory and appeared before his tax on imports and willy nilly interventions in private business decisions. Repeat after US Tariffs are taxes and taxes hurt economic growth, the board wrote. Mr. Trump this week asked the Supreme Court to hear the legal challenge to his tariffs on a fast track. The best news for the economy would be if the court takes up this challenge and finds them unconstitutional. In hot Air, Ed Morrissey explored curious aspects of the jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy only added 22,000 jobs in August, with revisions. That means that the US only created 88,000 jobs in the entire summer, and that will undoubtedly put pressure on Donald Trump to either adjust his approach or or find job creating investments, stat. Morrissey said. At the same time, however, wages continued moving upward. This seems very curious indeed. Why are wages still increasing above the current rate of inflation after three months and arguably five months of flat job creation growth? This isn't necessarily just a shift of departing immigrants and replacement by legal workers either. BLS calls the unemployment rate essentially flat, and that's mainly correct. But that U3 measure is ticking up slightly at 4.3%, Morrissey wrote. One would expect either wages or working hours to drop, but working hours are steady, overtime dropped a bit and these wage numbers look pretty good. It's a little mystifying. Replacement of illegal workers by legal workers might explain it, but if that were the case, we'd see drops in the civilian workforce numbers. Instead, we added nearly half a million workers in the household. Data in the Federalist, Christopher Jacobs said if Republicans don't get the economy right, all the other wins will be in vain. Donald Trump won re election over Harris in large part because voters remembered the positive economy and specifically the robust income growth during his first term as opposed to the Bidenflation of the past four years. If Republicans showed the same complacency as Democrats did on the economy last year, they could become the next ones to take the electoral hit, jacobs wrote. While political leaders often have to react to unexpected events like the recent Minneapolis school shooting, they can also choose when and where to engage. Unfortunately, the economy does not always appear to rank high on Republicans priority list. The ongoing price increases help explain why consumer confidence took a hit during August and why, according to the Wall Street Journal, more US Consumers now say they're dialing down spending than when inflation spiked in 2022, a bad omen heading into the midterms next year, Jacobs said the entire administration must spend every day convincing the American people that they are doing everything in their power to help families get ahead, for they ignore the economy stupid at their peril. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. Many on the left say the signs of a weak economy validate the Fed's cautious approach. Some blame Trump's economic policies for the state of the labor market. Others suggest the economy is becoming a political liability for Trump. In Bloomberg, Jonathan Levin wrote, the Fed saw these job numbers coming. Policymakers are doing an impressively decent job at forecasting an inherently unpredictable economy that's undergoing major changes from trade and immigration policies and the emergence of artificial intelligence. Levin said it may be premature to expect rapid fire rate cuts. Recall that the same policymakers who projected 4.5% unemployment and 3.1% core inflation also predicted two rate cuts this year and one in 2026. Yet following Friday's payrolls report, investors and financial pundits started contemplating the possibility of a 0.5 percentage point rate cut this month. The most alarming statistic in Friday's data dump was the meager 22,000 increase in non farm payrolls in August and the downward revisions to the previous month's data. All told, payroll growth has averaged 29,000amonth in the past three reporting periods, a pace that feels perilously close to stall speed, levin wrote. At the same time, estimates of break even job growth, the amount of job creation needed to keep unemployment steady have dropped precipitously due to declines in net immigration resulting from border policies and deportations. In msnbc, Heather Boshay suggested Trump should blame himself for the labor market struggles after last month's similarly anemic report. President Donald Trump claimed that the jobs numbers were rigged and fired Bureau of Labor statistics commissioner Erica McIntarfer. But the facts don't lie and the data is reliable even with the firing of the BLS commissioner, at least for the moment, boucher said. Rather than blame the bls, Trump should blame himself. His policies are creating challenges on both the supply and demand sides of the economy, affecting Americans in their roles as workers as well as consumers. To zoom in a bit more, the population of immigrant workers has declined by 1.2 million since January. The administration's economic agenda is driving up uncertainty and making everyday decisions for American businesses and consumers more difficult. Businesses can't plan ahead, the manufacturing sector has shrunk for six straight months and American workers are paying the price, boucher said. Whether we'll continue to have reliable data from the BLS is an open question as well. Trump's nominee to replace MacIntarfer, E.J. antony, has urged officials to take a chainsaw to the BLS and suggested we suspend the jobs report altogether. If that wasn't concern enough, on Friday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett assured the nation that next month the data will be revised upward. In the New York Times, Jess Bidgood asked, will Trump have to run from the economy? Last year, Donald Trump couldn't stop talking about the economy. As a presidential candidate, he assailed Democrats for inflation and rode the persistent malaise over the high cost of living right back to the White House, promising swift relief even though economists warned that his plans could actually drive prices higher, bidgood wrote. Today's lackluster jobs numbers are a reminder of how quickly the issue could present him and his party with political peril as elections approach. The president has a problem. A recent Gallup poll found that his approval rating on the economy fell to 37% in August from 42% in February. That's a steep drop from his average approval rating on the economy during his first term, which was 52%, Bidgood said. Indeed, Trump is already working hard to make sure the midterms are about anything other than the economy. He has openly said that he believes his crackdown on crime in Washington, which he has said he intends to expand to cities like Chicago and perhaps New Orleans, will play well for him next fall. Alright, let's head over to Isaac for His take.
- [18:52]
Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to my take. Economics can be confusing, but the basic story here seems pretty simple. Trump is levying tariffs against a number of our biggest trading partners. Tariffs increase costs and the nature of these tariffs creates uncertainty. Increases in costs and uncertainty lead to job losses, and they also restrict the kind of job growth that could otherwise outpace more cyclical job losses. A number of Trump supporters have defended the recent job losses and shrinking labor market by arguing that this is a temporary disruption downstream of the President cracking down on illegal immigration. That crackdown is certainly happening. I'm not sure if it is entirely good, but I am sure that it is causing an economic impact. However, part of that impact is that the native born employment rate is now creeping up and jobs for native born workers fell in August. So our economy is not just providing fewer jobs for illegal immigrants, but fewer jobs for everyone. Now, on the one hand, a 4.3% unemployment rate is very good by historical standards. The economy has stabilized since the pandemic, but unemployment had started to tick up at the end of the Biden administration. You could argue that Trump inherited an economy where growth was slowing already, and that perhaps we haven't seen the full upside of his policies yet. The Fed is expected to lower interest rates later this month, which Trump has been pushing for, which should increase some investment and economic activity. Perhaps optimistically, lower rates will drive up employment and investment, the reshoring of jobs will ramp up, and the President will continue to strike trade deals and raise tariff revenue. On the other hand, monthly job gains have averaged about 27,000 per month in the last four months, compared to 167,000 per month for all of last year. A quick note here. The BLS just released a preliminary report suggesting actual job growth over the 12 month period ending in March may have been significantly less than previously thought. That was the breaking news piece I talked about at the top of the podcast. So maybe this looks better for Trump than my take would suggest. Put simply, many more jobs are being added each month under Biden's economy than under Trump's. And again, a lot of economists were worried about those numbers, arguing that the Fed should be cutting rates to spur the economy. At the same time, inflation is not yet below the Fed's 2% target. Core goods prices are now 2% above the pre2025 trend, according to the Yale Budget Lab. Cutting interest rates risk driving up prices further, which could land us in the much dreaded stagflation scenario. This is not a great position for the Trump administration to be in just eight months into the job. Perhaps most worryingly, Trump's economic policies were specifically designed to boost American manufacturing. Unfortunately, the opposite seems to be happening. The US Manufacturing industry has now shrunk for six straight months, constituting a sector wide recession. And for all Biden's economic struggles, the sector boomed during the first couple years of his presidency. Economist Joey Politano compiled a chart illustrating how bad the drop off in blue collar jobs has been since 2023. And back then, manufacturing, construction, mining, logging, oil and gas, transportation and warehousing, utilities. We had over 800,000 of these jobs growing every month, and today that number is less than 200,000. The chart that we included in today's newsletter shows a very downward slope from left to right starting in 2023 under the Biden administration. As the writer Derek Thompson has pointed out, surveyed manufacturing businesses bring up the same concern again and again. It's tariffs. Another confounding aspect of this economy is that healthcare and social assistance, two sectors that are heavily reliant on government funding and policy, are currently showing the most growth despite Trump's focus on cutting government jobs. Meanwhile, the manufacturing industry is bleeding employment despite the President's focus on bringing those jobs back. Remember, last month Trump fired the BLS commissioner because, let's be real, he thought she was rigging the job numbers against Republicans. This month's numbers were markedly worse. That's good news about the BLS because one, it means we are probably still getting real numbers, which I figured would happen, and two, it reaffirms the obvious, which is that last month's jobs numbers were obviously not rigged. But it's also bad news about the economy because the numbers are just not good. In July, when I wrote about the five things I got wrong about Trump, I noted that the tariff policy had been going better than I expected. So far, Trump was bringing in a lot of extra government revenue and tariffs had not noticeably driven up prices, which I thought would have happened faster. There were a lot of reasonable explanations for this, which is why I flagged three major caveats. One, it was early still and tariffs may not have impacted consumer pricing just yet. Two, Trump has delayed reverse course or altered many of the reciprocal tariffs he announced on Liberation Day. And three, tariffs are actually seriously impacting certain industries now. Consumer prices are starting to inflate a bit. But more importantly, it looks like the tariffs and the general unpredictability of the Trump administration's policies are impacting business growth across the country, which makes sense. As the Wall Street Journal editorial board noted, the extra taxes are hitting companies that fuel the manufacturing sector. Tariffs are costing the equipment manufacturing company Caterpillar $1.8 billion this year, Deere 600 million, Ford 2 billion and General Motors expects to lose $5 billion in profit this year due to tariffs. These are not small numbers, and the cost of manufacturers were always going to show up in the jobs data, especially when these businesses can't get a clear picture on what the future will look like. What happens next is anyone's guess, which is part of the problem. The Supreme Court could hear a case on the legality of Trump's tariffs and upend them entirely. Trump has backed off some of his tariff policies before earning the Taco Trump always chickens out moniker, and he could do so again. Alternatively, the court could also rule that the president's reciprocal tariffs are legal, and he could also end up doubling down. Trump has repeatedly and stubbornly tried to drive tariffs up when he feels a trading partner isn't sufficiently cooperative. As for the political implications, Americans are keen to the moment. Trump's approval on the economy is down 5 points from February and 15 points from his first term average. Economic sentiment just took a major hit, and inflation is still a top issue for voters. If Trump can't right the ship on the fundamental issue of the economy, he'll have a hard time preserving a House majority next fall and pursuing his agenda in the second half of his term. We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [25:41]
Commercial Narrator
Imagine a world of extraordinary comfort where Bolin Branch Bedding wraps you in the softest. Embrace the coziest experience, made from the world's finest 100% organic cotton, all so you can sleep better. Start building your fall sanctuary with Bolen Branch's iconic signature sheets, made with a buttery, breathable weave that gets softer with every wash. Enjoy 15% off your first set of sheets with free shipping and returns at B O l l and branch.com with code buttery C site for details and exclusions.
- [26:15]
Howie Mandel
There's the part of me that everyone sees. I'm Howie Mandel, the comedian. Apparently I know what funny is. Funny bought me a house. But I also know what isn't funny. Ocd. I've lived with OCD my entire life, and people throw the term around like it's no big deal. But OCD is severe, often debilitating. It's a mental health condition that involves unrelented, unwanted thoughts that can make you question your character, your beliefs, even your safety. General therapy can help with some things, but for ocd, it can actually make things worse. That's why I want to tell you about nocd. NOCD is the world's largest treatment provider for OCD and is covered by Insurance for over 155 million Americans. Their licensed therapists specialize in ERP, the most effective treatment for OCD. If you think you might be struggling with OCD, go to nocd.com to book a free 15 minute call. They are here to help.
- [27:22]
Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for my take. I'm going to pass it over to Ari, who's got a staff to send and he's going to take your questions answered today and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one.
- [27:31]
Ari Weitzman
Peace this is Tango Managing Editor Ari Weitzman just giving a brief staff dissent to Isaac's My take today wanted to give a little bit of nuance to what I think the numbers that Trump inherited as president. I'm not saying that I'm supportive of Trump's tariff policy. I just think that crediting the entire downturn and the jobs numbers to this administration is myopic. Biden did spur manufacturing growth, Isaac said today, and he and Chairman Powell left Trump with an economy that had relatively succeeded in balancing the concerns of growth and inflation. In fact, they did so it was pretty impressive. But but those concerns were still there when they left office in 2024. Unemployment did start to increase and we got a report today showing that those numbers were worse than we even thought. And also in 24, GDP growth did also start to slow and the manufacturing gains of the first half of Biden's term did start to wane. I'm not saying the economy Trump inherited was a dying fire, just that it looked like it needed another log. All right, that's it for the my take and the staff dissent today. So I'm gonna stay on the mic and give you the answer to today's reader question. Today's reader question comes from J.S. from Crown Point, Indiana, who asks I've been hearing about Trump gunning for a Nobel Peace Prize and have seen headlines. The US Under Trump has brokered peace in several conflicts. How true is this and how much credit does the Trump administration really deserve? Over the past month or so, President Trump has said he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize. He also reportedly told Norway he wants a Nobel Peace Prize. And by the way, the recipient is selected by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, so that's why he's talking to Norway about it. He's also been nominated by several countries for the prize, but he also downplayed talks about receiving the accolade. In October. Nobel laureates will be chosen by the Nobel Committee, so keep an eye out for that. Either way, regardless of Trump's motivation, he has said that in his second term, quote, I've settled six wars, and a lot of people say seven because there's one that nobody knows about. We'll break down the claim for each conflict here and give each one a quick accuracy rating. First, Israel and Iran. We're calling this mostly true. Although Iran and Israel were never formally at war, the US did broker a ceasefire, but only after it also participated in and helped Israel plan the strikes on Iran. So can't get too much credit for ending a conflict that you were partly involved in starting the India Pakistan conflict. This one is mostly false. India and Pakistan were not formally at war when they agreed to a ceasefire either. And while Pakistan credits Trump with easing tensions, India uniformly denies that the US was involved in the mediation. Next is the Armenia, Azerbaijan conflict, which we're calling partially true. The two countries have agreed to a transit agreement that the US was involved in mediating in 2025, but they have not agreed on terms to end their current conflict. Next, the Rwanda Democratic Republic of Congo conflict. This one we're saying is mostly true. The US was involved in mediating a peace deal in June. However, armed rebel groups do not believe the peace deal applies to them, and much of the fighting remains active. Cambodia and Thailand. This one's partially true. After recent border skirmishes that we talked about on this slide podcast that also did not amount to a war, the two countries agreed to a ceasefire influenced by US trade pressure, which Trump was very, very much involved in, and as such, notably Cambodia has nominated President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize because of his influence here. All right, that brings us to Egypt and Ethiopia. This one we're calling mostly false. Trump has said he was involved with helping the two sides of reach an agreement over an Ethiopian dam on the Nile river, but no binding resolution has been reached and the US's involvement is not official. Furthermore, this disagreement, like some others, also never escalated to war. Lastly, that brings us to the Serbia Kosovo conflict, which we're calling just false. The two sides haven't formalized an agreement during Trump's second term, even though the White House included this conflict among the seven that Trump referred to in his list. The countries agreed to an economic agreement in 2020 that may have prevented conflict, but as with some other items in this list, it did not end an existing war. Since then, talks have stalled and Serbia still denies Kosovo's independence. All right, that's it for the reader question today, so I'm going to turn it back over to John for the rest of the podcast. Thanks, y'. All. Talk to you soon.
- [32:10]
John Law
Thanks, Ari. Here's your under the Radar story for today, folks. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that between January and August, the number of Americans missing work for National Guard deployments or other military or civic duty reached a 19 year high. During that time span, military deployments resulted in approximately 90,000 instances of employees missing work for a week or more, partly due to President Donald Trump's deployment of the Guard to Los Angeles and Washington, dc. However, these absences make up just a fraction of overall workplace disruptions like labor disputes and bad weather, both of which were higher than military related leaves in August. The Washington Post has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description alright, next up is our numbers section 598,000 jobs were added to the US job market in 2025. 26,750 is the average monthly job gain since May, the month after President Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs. The percentage of unemployed people who have been unemployed for 27 weeks in August is 25.7%, the highest monthly share since February of 2022. The labor force participation rate in August was 62.3%, a 0.4% year over year decline. 31,000 healthcare jobs were added in August. The decrease in federal government employment in August was minus 15,000. The odds that the Federal Reserve votes to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting as of Monday afternoon is 88%, according to the CME Group's Fed watch tool. And the odds that the Federal Reserve votes to cut interest rates by 50 basis points is 12%. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. Poachers, disease and habitat loss have put jaguars at risk of extinction in Mexico, but a new population study from the national alliance for Jaguar Conservation reveals a promising upward trend. ANCJ zoologist Gerardo Ceballos and a team of nearly 50 researchers and local community leaders documented 5,326 Jaguars across the country in 2024, up 30% from 2010. The fact that the country has managed to maintain and increase its population over the last 14 years is extraordinary, extraordinary, sebello said. The Guardian has this story and there's a link in today's episode description all right everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to retangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'. All. Peace.
- [35:03]
Isaac Saul
Our Executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our Executive producer is John Wall. Today's episode was edited and engineered by John Wall. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will K. Back and Associate Editors Audrey Moorhead, Bailey Stahl, Lindsay Knuth and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75 and John Law, and to learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@readtangle.com.
- [35:47]
Commercial Narrator
Imagine a world of extraordinary comfort where Bolen Branch Bedding wraps you in the softest. Embrace the coziest experience, made from the world's finest 100% organic cotton, all so you can sleep better. Start building your fall sanctuary with Bolen Branch's iconic signature sheets, made with a buttery, breathable weave that gets softer with every wash. Enjoy 15% off your first set of sheets with free shipping and returns at B O L L& Branch.com with code BUTTERY. See site for details and exclusions. When fall is finally here, you're ready for a wardrobe refresh and Nordstrom has you covered with the best of fall fashion. Stay ahead of the hottest trends and discover new favorites from top brands like Reformation, Veronica Beard, Favorite Daughter, Free People, Mango, Madewell, and more. And the best part? Free shipping, free returns and easy installation Store pickup so get ready to shop in stores on Nordstrom.com or download the Nordstrom app today.
- [36:48]
Isaac Saul
Got an idea? For an app with base 44, you.
- [36:51]
John Law
Don'T need to know a single line of code.
- [36:53]
Ari Weitzman
Just describe what you want and base 44 instantly designs the interface, builds the database, and connects the logic for you.
- [36:59]
John Law
Whether it's tracking invoices, planning meals, or.
- [37:02]
Isaac Saul
Managing a whole team, you can build at the speed of thought and customize it as you go.
- [37:07]
Ari Weitzman
Stop waiting on developers, start running your.
- [37:09]
Isaac Saul
Business smarter with base44. Visit base44.com and turn your idea into.
- [37:15]
Ari Weitzman
A live app today.