Podcast Summary: Tangle — “Latest job numbers cause fresh economic concern”

Host: Isaac Saul
Air Date: September 9, 2025

Overview

This episode dissects the latest U.S. jobs report, which revealed weaker-than-expected employment growth, sparking concern about the economy’s health. Host Isaac Saul and other Tangle contributors analyze the data, share perspectives from across the political spectrum, explore possible causes (including President Trump’s tariffs and crackdown on immigration), and discuss the political ramifications as election season approaches.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The August Jobs Report & Immediate Reactions

• Jobs Data: Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%.
  • (05:59) “The health care sector accounted for roughly 31,000 new jobs, but declining employment in the federal government, manufacturing and professional services offset some of those gains.” — John Law
• Revisions: June’s jobs numbers were revised downward, July upward, highlighting ongoing volatility.
• Economist Consensus: The report fell below economists' expectations, increasing the chances of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Quote:
“The warning bell that rang in the labor market a month ago just got louder.” — John Law (06:42)

• Breaking Context: A new BLS report suggests that between March 2024 and March 2025, job growth may have been overestimated by nearly 1 million.

2. Political and Economic Context

• Policy Changes:
  • Trump administration fired BLS commissioner Erica McIntarfer over alleged data rigging, with Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni nominated as replacement.
  • Ongoing tariffs and stricter immigration policy under Trump are shaping the labor market and adding uncertainty.
• Fed & Officials’ Responses:
  • National Economic Council’s Kevin Hassett acknowledges disappointing numbers but expects future upward revisions and notes issues with BLS data collection.
  • Labor Secretary Laurie Chavez de Remer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant blame Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for inaction and mismanagement.
  • Trump continues to blame the Fed for rate policy, insisting the jobs data will improve.

Quote:
“Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell should have lowered rates a long time ago. As usual, he’s too late.” — President Trump (07:49)

Perspectives from the Political Spectrum

What the Right is Saying (11:02)

• Concerns on Tariffs:
  The right is mixed — some highlight positive wage growth, but many argue Trump’s tariffs are hurting industries and job creation, specifically in manufacturing.

  “Tariffs are taxes and taxes hurt economic growth, the board wrote. Mr. Trump this week asked the Supreme Court to hear the legal challenge to his tariffs on a fast track. The best news for the economy would be if the court… finds them unconstitutional.” — Wall Street Journal editorial board (11:20)

• Wage Growth vs. Flat Job Growth:
  Some are puzzled that wages are rising even as hiring stagnates.

  “Why are wages still increasing above the current rate of inflation after three months and arguably five months of flat job creation growth?... Working hours are steady...these wage numbers look pretty good. It’s a little mystifying.” — Ed Morrissey, Hot Air (13:00)

• Political Urgency:
  Others warn that Trump and the GOP risk electoral losses if they do not prioritize the economy and reverse negative trends.

  “The entire administration must spend every day convincing the American people that they are doing everything in their power to help families get ahead, for they ignore the economy stupid at their peril.” — Christopher Jacobs, The Federalist (14:30)

What the Left is Saying (15:17)

• Fed’s Approach Vindicated:
  Many left-leaning commentators say the weak jobs figures justify the Fed’s caution with rate policy.

• Blame on Trump’s Policy:
  Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdown are seen as responsible for both reduced labor supply and business uncertainty leading to weaker job creation.

  “Rather than blame the BLS, Trump should blame himself. His policies are creating challenges on both the supply and demand sides of the economy, affecting Americans in their roles as workers as well as consumers.” — Heather Boushey, MSNBC (16:00)

• Data Reliability:
  Concerns are expressed over Trump’s politicization of the BLS, with his nominee E.J. Antoni having advocated suspending the jobs report.

  “Whether we’ll continue to have reliable data from the BLS is an open question as well.” — Heather Boushey (16:44)

• Political Liabilities:
  Trump, who campaigned on the economy, is now potentially vulnerable as jobs stagnate and his approval rating on the economy dips.

  “Today's lackluster jobs numbers are a reminder of how quickly the issue could present him and his party with political peril as elections approach.” — Jess Bidgood, NYT (17:15)

Isaac’s Take (18:51)

• Tariffs & Uncertainty:
  Saul states that new tariffs and unpredictability are causing a drag on job growth, especially in manufacturing, and that the labor market is losing steam not just for immigrants but native-born workers as well.

  “Increases in costs and uncertainty lead to job losses, and…restrict the kind of job growth that could otherwise outpace more cyclical job losses.” — Isaac Saul (19:01)

• Historical Context:
  While current unemployment (4.3%) is still historically solid, Saul notes that the last four months saw just 27,000 average monthly job growth versus 167,000 last year.

• Comparisons to the Biden Era:
  Under Biden, monthly job gains were much higher, especially in blue-collar sectors. The downturn in job creation, Saul argues, is stark and concerning.

  “Put simply, many more jobs are being added each month under Biden’s economy than under Trump’s.” (20:44)

• Dangers Ahead:
  With inflation still above the Fed’s target, Saul warns that aggressive rate cuts could result in stagflation.
  Manufacturing — the sector Trump aimed to help — is now in a “sector-wide recession,” despite gains during Biden’s first years.

  “Tariffs are costing the equipment manufacturing company Caterpillar $1.8 billion this year, Deere $600 million, Ford $2 billion and General Motors expects to lose $5 billion in profit this year due to tariffs. These are not small numbers…” (23:30)

• Political Consequences:
  Americans are paying attention. Trump’s approval on the economy is down 5 points from February and 15 points from his first-term average. Saul suggests Trump needs to turn things around quickly or risk losing political ground.

Staff Dissent: Ari Weitzman Adds Nuance (27:30)

• Weitzman agrees tariffs are problematic but says it’s unfair to blame Trump for the whole downturn.

• He notes the issues — rising unemployment, slowing growth — were already emerging at the end of Biden’s term, and initial BLS reports underestimated the size of the slowdown Trump inherited.

  “I'm not saying the economy Trump inherited was a dying fire, just that it looked like it needed another log.” — Ari Weitzman (28:17)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The warning bell that rang in the labor market a month ago just got louder.” — John Law (06:42)
• “Repeat after US: Tariffs are taxes and taxes hurt economic growth.” — Wall Street Journal editorial board (11:40)
• “Put simply, many more jobs are being added each month under Biden’s economy than under Trump’s.” — Isaac Saul (20:44)
• “If Trump can't right the ship on the fundamental issue of the economy, he'll have a hard time preserving a House majority next fall and pursuing his agenda in the second half of his term.” — Isaac Saul (25:05)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [05:17] — Introduction to the latest jobs report and its contents
• [10:53] — Overview of right-leaning commentary and editorial perspectives
• [15:17] — Summary of left-leaning takes and critiques
• [18:51] — Isaac Saul’s nuanced breakdown and analysis
• [27:30] — Staff dissent: Additional context on economic conditions at transition
• [32:09] — Under-the-radar data and quick statistics
• [34:10] — “Have a Nice Day” story on jaguar conservation

Additional Highlights

• Reader Q&A on Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize claims (29:00): Ari Weitzman debunks and fact-checks several of President Trump’s international peace claims with a nuanced “mostly true/mostly false” rubric.
• Under-the-Radar Story (32:09): National Guard and civic duty absences at a 19-year high, largely due to Trump’s deployments — but these are minor compared to weather and labor dispute disruptions.
• Stats Section (33:00): “26,750 is the average monthly job gain since May…down from the prior year.”
• “Have a Nice Day”: Positive news on jaguar conservation in Mexico, with populations up 30% since 2010.

Tone & Language

The discussion is candid, evidence-driven, and non-partisan, with Saul and guests careful to provide context and acknowledge both partisan biases and economic uncertainties. The overall tone is sober but not panicked, with a clear emphasis on data and competing arguments from both right and left.

For listeners seeking a clear, fair, and detailed breakdown of the latest jobs data and its political, economic, and personal ramifications, this episode offers balanced views, clarity on complex issues, and nuanced, original analysis.