John Law (11:08)
Alright, first up, let's start with what the right is saying. Some on the right see warning signs for Trump and Orban's laws. Others say Orban's political ideas will survive beyond his time in power. In National Review, Henry Olson wrote about Orban's total defeat. It's not hard to figure out why Orban was decisively rejected. His government had allowed cronyism. The opposition calls it corruption to flourish. That was made worse by the fact that the economy had been stagnant for four years, registering almost no real GDP growth, olson wrote. Mazhar proved to be politically talented, rallying disaffected Fidesz voters and the old opposition to his side. He ran on a platform that borrowed elements from Fides anti Ukraine war, opposition to migration with criticisms about corruption, the slow economy and problematic relations with the European Union. The result should alarm President Trump and Vice President Vance. They committed American prestige to support Orban and got annihilated. Their intervention did not help Orban, but it certainly hurt Trump even more with the European leaders whose support he needs in the Middle East, Olson said. The Hungary elections should also impel Trump and Vance to look at the state of their own electoral prospects. Orban kept trying to change the subject rather than deal with the issues voters actually cared about, like growth and inflation. Similarly, the economy consistently ranks among the most important issues among voters stateside. In Rod Dreher's diary on Substack, Rod Dreher wrote about Orban going but Orbanism coming to Europe. Mazhar is not a figure of the political left, which remains unpopular in Hungary. What he basically offered voters is Orban, but without the corruption on the key issues that infuriate Brussels about Orban's Hungary, his hard line on migrants and asylum seekers, and his adamant desire to keep Hungary out of the Ukraine war. There's no difference between Orban and Magyar, except that Magyar might be even tougher than Orban on migration, dreyer said. When he takes power, Mazhar is going to have to either disappoint his allies in the EU establishment or disappoint millions of his voters. Personally, I expect him to be the cat's paw of Brussels. It is undoubtedly true that populist sovereignists and national conservatives have lost their most visible champion, but again, this result does not discredit the cause. Orban lost because the economy is poor and his party was far too tolerant of corruption. Hungarians are no more in favor of mass migration and European involvement in the Ukraine war today than they were yesterday, dreher wrote. In fact, Orban's tragedy is that European voters are finally coming around to his point of view on the importance of stronger borders. Orban may be going, but Orbanism is coming to Western Europe. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. The left celebrates Orban's loss and many see it as an embarrassment for Trump. Some see Mazzar's victory as a blow against illiberal forces globally. In Salon, Andrew o' Heir said Maga and Putin bet big on Hungary's election. It backfired, as Hungarian journalist Ivan von Nagy put it. Orban survived for so long through an ingenious pattern of shadowboxing against an ever shifting cast of make believe enemies, telling the conservative and national elements of the Hungarian public that only he can save them from dark skinned immigrants, European bureaucrats, meddling American liberals, the globalist plots of Hungarian born George Soros, LGBTQ activists, gender ideology and wokeness, o' Hare wrote. This time around it seems that Hungarian voters were more concerned about their stagnant economy. Orban's downfall will feel like a major setback to various strands of the transatlantic right, especially to leading figures in the national conservative movement like Vance, Stephen Miller, Peter Thiel and Tucker Carter Carlsen, Ohhir said. If Vance's trip to Budapest shifted the campaign at all, it only amplified the scale of Orban's defeat. Whatever happens in Hungary from here on out, the story is familiar. The left is powerless and almost invisible, but the far right once again turned out to be its own worst enemy. Alright, that is it for what the right and the left are saying. Which brings us to what writers in Hungary are saying. Some writers worry that Mazzar is arrogant and out of touch. Others say Mazar has an opportunity to reassert democratic norms in Hungary. In Hungary today, Daniel Demi criticized Peter Mazzar's victory speech. Magyar characterized his win as no less than the victory of truth against lies, saying that the election is a reflection of Hungarians decision to reject deceit and betrayal with hubris bordering the obscene. He even compared his electoral success to the anti Habsburg Revolution of 1848-49. And in a matter that will be taken as an insult to the memory of our anti communist communist freedom fighters, to the Hungarian uprising of 1956, Demi said with his trademark pomposity. He called his party's success a golden date in Hungarian freedom, a victory over those who have allegedly oppressed and betrayed them. One of the biggest genuine failures of the Orban government was its inability to bring people guilty of corruption, sexual violence or fraud to justice both from the left and from the right of the political spectrum, demi wrote. But the bullying tone that we have heard on election night is only an innocent taster of what's to come. And albeit Tiza voters might feel that this is okay or even desirable as long as it solely affects the Orban crowd. It requires a generous amount of naivete to think that with time, a very short one for that, they themselves will feel the consequences of this shift towards the politics of envy and retribution. In the New York Times, Stefano Batoni called Orban's defeat an astounding achievement. For the past 16 years, Mr. Orban has built a complex system of institutional traps designed to hardwire his power and paralyze any successor. At the heart of this system is the 2011 fundamental law, which replaced the Constitution and can be amended only by a two thirds majority in parliament, Batoni said. Mr. Orban didn't stop there. He and his party appropriated large sectors of the economy, allocating public resources, including both national and European funds, to supporters. Taken together, it adds up to a tightly bound clientelist system. But the economy has been stagnating since the pandemic, with few remedies in sight. The trade deficit with China has quadrupled in the past decade, increasing to over 10 billion from 2.6 billion. Inflation skyrocketed to 25% during the pandemic, and household consumption levels remain low. That has laid the groundwork for Mr. Orban's defeat, Batoni wrote. Hungary has a golden opportunity. The TISA party's success shows that democracy can be peacefully restored by the people, even against entrenched incumbents. And when great powers intervene to help their proteges rather than a laboratory of autocracy, Hungary could become a lighthouse of democracy. Alright, let's head over to Audrey for her take.
