Tangle Podcast – PREVIEW - INTERVIEW: Will Kaback Talks with Stephen Hawkins
Release Date: February 6, 2025

Introduction

In this insightful episode of Tangle, host Will Kbach engages in an in-depth conversation with Stephen Hawkins, the Global Director of Research at More in Common. The discussion centers around the pivotal study titled "The Priority Gap," which explores the disparities between American voters' perceptions of Republican and Democratic priorities following the 2024 election.

Study Design and Objectives

Stephen Hawkins begins by outlining the methodology behind the "Priority Gap" study. Conducted with a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. adults, the survey aimed to uncover how different demographic groups perceive the priorities of the two major political parties. The core objective was to determine whether Americans accurately understand what each party values most, especially in the aftermath of the 2024 election.

Stephen Hawkins (05:19): "This was a 5,000 person survey. We got a representative sample of adults and then made sure that we had good quotas and weights to account for all relevant considerations."

Key Findings

One of the most striking revelations from the study is the unanimous concern over cost of living and inflation across all demographic segments. These issues emerged as the top personal priorities for Americans, transcending generational, racial, and geographic lines.

Stephen Hawkins (06:44): "Americans of all demographic groups said the cost of living and inflation were the top issue to them personally."

However, a significant "perception gap" was identified in how the priorities of Republicans and Democrats are viewed. While Republicans are perceived to prioritize immigration, the economy, and inflation—aligning closely with the actual Republican agenda—Democrats are often seen as focusing disproportionately on LGBTQ and transgender policies, abortion, and climate change.

Stephen Hawkins (06:54): "When it comes to Democrats, what we found is that inflation and the economy were actually ranked like 4th and 9th in terms of what Americans thought Democrats cared about."

Implications for the Democratic Party

This misalignment suggests that Democrats may not be effectively communicating their true priorities to the electorate. Instead, they are perceived as prioritizing issues that resonate more with their progressive base rather than the broader concerns of the general populace. This disconnect potentially hindered their performance in the 2024 election.

Stephen Hawkins (06:54): "Democrats were seen as really serving or prioritizing an agenda that was more in line with maybe what their progressive activist base cares about or just actually something which Americans in general don't see as a top priority."

Influence of Campaign Strategies

A critical factor contributing to this perception gap was the strategic maneuvers during the campaign. The Trump campaign invested heavily—approximately $450 million—in advertising that framed Kamala Harris as primarily focused on transgender issues. This narrative overshadowed other policy areas and reinforced the skewed perception of Democratic priorities.

Stephen Hawkins (11:58): "The Trump campaign is about addressing these issues that you care about. And Harris is focused on trans issues, which is exactly the perception that we see here."

The decision by the Harris campaign not to aggressively counter these ads further exacerbated the mismatch between perceived and actual Democratic priorities.

Final Stretch of the Campaign

In the concluding days of the election, strategic differences between the two campaigns became apparent. Harris aimed to reach moderates and disenchanted Republicans by featuring bipartisan endorsements, whereas Trump targeted politically disengaged voters through high-visibility stunts aimed at showcasing relatability.

Stephen Hawkins (20:38): "Trump seemed to be going after the disengaged voter. He's doing stunts like this garbage truck thing, working at a McDonald's. Right? These are high visibility things."

This divergence highlights the importance of understanding and targeting the right voter segments during critical moments of a campaign.

Conclusions and Takeaways

The episode underscores the vital role of accurate perception management in political campaigns. For Democrats, bridging the perception gap requires recalibrating messaging strategies to better align with the electorate's primary concerns, such as the economy and inflation, rather than being predominantly associated with niche progressive issues.

Stephen Hawkins (06:54): "Democrats were seen as really serving or prioritizing an agenda that was more in line with maybe what their progressive activist base cares about or just actually something which Americans in general don't see as a top priority."

Notable Quotes

• Stephen Hawkins on Study Design:
  "We wanted to know how enthusiastic people were about the presidential candidates they voted for... what we were really curious about"
  (05:19)

• On Perception Gaps:
  "When it comes to Democrats, what we found is that inflation and the economy were actually ranked like 4th and 9th in terms of what Americans thought Democrats cared about."
  (06:54)

• On Campaign Strategies:
  "The Trump campaign is about addressing these issues that you care about. And Harris is focused on trans issues, which is exactly the perception that we see here."
  (11:58)

• On Election Trust Among Republicans:
  "Among Republicans, we saw that that level was just 24% in the middle of the year. And then right after the election, it had jumped up to half."
  (10:06)

This episode of Tangle offers a nuanced exploration of the factors influencing voter perceptions and underscores the complexities political parties face in aligning their public image with the electorate's true priorities. Stephen Hawkins's expertise provides valuable insights for strategists aiming to navigate the ever-evolving political landscape.