PREVIEW - The Friday Edition: 19 more predictions about the future. - Tangle

Tangle Podcast - Episode Summary

Episode Title: PREVIEW - The Friday Edition: 19 more predictions about the future
Host: Isaac Saul
Date: December 19, 2025

Main Theme & Purpose

In this special members-only edition of the Tangle Podcast, host Isaac Saul revisits a favorite format: making bold, reasoned predictions about the future of politics and society. After previously laying out 19 predictions in 2021—with a strong 67% accuracy rate—Isaac is back to share 19 new forecasts, each accompanied by his reasoning and a confidence rating. The episode serves as both a test of his own analytical clarity and a prompt for listeners to assess and discuss their own expectations about what’s ahead in politics and beyond.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Revisiting 2021 Predictions

Track Record Recap ([01:46]-[03:18])
- In 2021, Isaac made 19 predictions about political developments.
- To date, 12 were correct, 6 were incorrect, and one (the gender of the first elected U.S. female president) is still unresolved.
- Isaac transparently reviews his accuracy and notes, "Basically, 67% accuracy rate. Not bad. Especially since I tried to make some predictions that weren't just easy layups." (Isaac Saul, [02:50])

2. The Value & Risk in Political Predictions

Reflection on Prognostication ([02:53]-[04:22])
- Isaac acknowledges the risks: "Making predictions about the [future] has pretty little upside unless you're really, really, really good at it. You basically get things wrong about the future, which just gives your critics ammunition to say you're inept or stupid."
- He also recognizes the intellectual value: "Making predictions about the future and seeing how they stack up is a good test of your own personal knowledge and understanding of the world."
- Prediction as a fun, but humbling, exercise.

3. Methodology for New Predictions

How This Round Works ([04:22]-[04:50])
- Each prediction is paired with a brief explanation and a 1-10 confidence rating.
- Only predictions with at least a “better than 50%” perceived chance of occurring are included; the confidence scale runs from 'about 51%' (1) to '100%' (10).
- Isaac invites listener feedback and even their own predictions.

4. Setting the Stage for the New 19 Predictions

Transition to Content (before paywall/preview ends) ([04:50])
- Just as Isaac is about to reveal his first prediction, the preview ends, and listeners are encouraged to subscribe for full access.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the hazards of making predictions:

"You basically get things wrong about the future, which just gives your critics ammunition to say you're inept or stupid."
— Isaac Saul ([03:10])
On why predictions matter:

"When someone is seeing the field clearly, they can often anticipate what's coming, which makes any person's accurate prediction a good signal they are worth trusting."
— Isaac Saul ([03:50])
On transparency and humility:

"I'm not a huge fan of political prognostication. Believe it or not, making predictions about the [future] has pretty little upside unless you're really, really, really good at it."
— Isaac Saul ([02:53])
On confidence ratings:

"The scale of the confidence rating is 1 to 10, with 10 being maximum confidence and 1 being lowest confidence. But I want to be clear here, I'm not including any prediction that I don't think has at least higher than a 50% chance of coming true."
— Isaac Saul ([04:28])

Important Timestamps

[01:46] — Isaac Saul welcomes listeners and frames the episode’s theme and personal context.
[02:50] — Review of 2021 prediction accuracy (12 correct, 6 incorrect, 1 pending).
[03:10] — Honest assessment of risks in public forecasts.
[03:50] — Reflection on why prediction literacy matters.
[04:28] — Explanation of his confidence scale methodology.
[04:50] — Episode preview ends; full content available to members only.

Tone & Style

Isaac Saul’s tone is candid, reflective, and a bit self-deprecating. He balances seriousness about the limitations of predictions with a sense of fun and intellectual curiosity, engaging listeners as partners in thoughtful speculation.

Summary for New Listeners

This episode offers a transparent, introspective look at political forecasting—both the wins and the misses. Isaac Saul demonstrates accountability for past predictions and a willingness to put his judgment on the line again, all while encouraging listeners to get involved in the exercise. The preview teases an engaging members-only segment featuring 19 new predictions, each with context and a confidence rating. For the full list, listeners are directed to Tangle’s newsletter or premium podcast subscription.

For more content, full episodes, and access to Isaac Saul’s 19 new predictions, visit readtangle.com.

Transcript

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From executive producer isaac saul this is tangle.

Isaac Saul (1:46)

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I am your still somehow sick host Isaac Saul. Today is Friday, December 19th. This is a members Only Tangle Edition and today I'm going to be making 19 predictions about the future. So in 2021 for those of you who are around then, I made 19 predictions about the future. And since that article and podcast were published, all but one of the predictions has been settled. You can find the results to those predictions by clicking the link in today's episode description or going to our website readtangle.com and checking out an article we published about it today where I reviewed all of those predictions. I'm not going to go through all 19 of them here, but I'll say this, their final tally was 12 correct, six incorrect, and one that is still TBD. That prediction was that the first elected female president will be a Democrat. We haven't had a female president yet, so we haven't made a ruling on that. But basically 67% accuracy rate. Not bad. Especially since I tried to make some predictions that weren't just easy layups. As I said back in 2021, I'm not a huge fan of political prognostication. Believe it or not, making predictions about the it has pretty little upside unless you're really, really, really good at it. You basically get things wrong about the future, which just gives your critics ammunition to say you're inept or stupid. And some people also find it irresponsible. Making predictions requires making assumptions, which is by definition speculation, something reporters and even pundits are often criticized for doing. At the same time, I think making predictions about the future and seeing how they stack up is a good test of your own personal knowledge and and understanding of the world. When someone is seeing the field clearly, they can often anticipate what's coming, which makes any person's accurate prediction a good signal. They are worth trusting. In some ways, I want to test my own understanding of this moment by trying to predict things that are coming down the pike. Also, let's be honest, it's pretty fun. So today I'm going to run it back and I'm going to see how I do as I did in 2021. I'm going to accompany each prediction with a one to two sentence explanation and and then a confidence rating so you can see how strongly I hold the belief. The scale of the confidence rating is 1 to 10, with 10 being maximum confidence and 1 being lowest confidence. But I want to be clear here, I'm not including any prediction that I don't think has at least higher than a 50% chance of coming true. Otherwise I'd just be throwing darts randomly at the wall. So the 1 to 10 rating basically should be thought more like 51% to 100% rating rather than 0 to 100. I'd love to hear what you think or hear predictions of your own. So without further ado, they are.