Tangle Podcast - Episode Summary

Episode Title: PREVIEW - The Friday Edition: 19 more predictions about the future
Host: Isaac Saul
Date: December 19, 2025

Main Theme & Purpose

In this special members-only edition of the Tangle Podcast, host Isaac Saul revisits a favorite format: making bold, reasoned predictions about the future of politics and society. After previously laying out 19 predictions in 2021—with a strong 67% accuracy rate—Isaac is back to share 19 new forecasts, each accompanied by his reasoning and a confidence rating. The episode serves as both a test of his own analytical clarity and a prompt for listeners to assess and discuss their own expectations about what’s ahead in politics and beyond.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Revisiting 2021 Predictions

• Track Record Recap ([01:46]-[03:18])
  • In 2021, Isaac made 19 predictions about political developments.
  • To date, 12 were correct, 6 were incorrect, and one (the gender of the first elected U.S. female president) is still unresolved.
  • Isaac transparently reviews his accuracy and notes, "Basically, 67% accuracy rate. Not bad. Especially since I tried to make some predictions that weren't just easy layups." (Isaac Saul, [02:50])

2. The Value & Risk in Political Predictions

• Reflection on Prognostication ([02:53]-[04:22])
  • Isaac acknowledges the risks: "Making predictions about the [future] has pretty little upside unless you're really, really, really good at it. You basically get things wrong about the future, which just gives your critics ammunition to say you're inept or stupid."
  • He also recognizes the intellectual value: "Making predictions about the future and seeing how they stack up is a good test of your own personal knowledge and understanding of the world."
  • Prediction as a fun, but humbling, exercise.

3. Methodology for New Predictions

• How This Round Works ([04:22]-[04:50])
  • Each prediction is paired with a brief explanation and a 1-10 confidence rating.
  • Only predictions with at least a “better than 50%” perceived chance of occurring are included; the confidence scale runs from 'about 51%' (1) to '100%' (10).
  • Isaac invites listener feedback and even their own predictions.

4. Setting the Stage for the New 19 Predictions

• Transition to Content (before paywall/preview ends) ([04:50])
  • Just as Isaac is about to reveal his first prediction, the preview ends, and listeners are encouraged to subscribe for full access.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the hazards of making predictions:

  "You basically get things wrong about the future, which just gives your critics ammunition to say you're inept or stupid."
  — Isaac Saul ([03:10])

• On why predictions matter:

  "When someone is seeing the field clearly, they can often anticipate what's coming, which makes any person's accurate prediction a good signal they are worth trusting."
  — Isaac Saul ([03:50])

• On transparency and humility:

  "I'm not a huge fan of political prognostication. Believe it or not, making predictions about the [future] has pretty little upside unless you're really, really, really good at it."
  — Isaac Saul ([02:53])

• On confidence ratings:

  "The scale of the confidence rating is 1 to 10, with 10 being maximum confidence and 1 being lowest confidence. But I want to be clear here, I'm not including any prediction that I don't think has at least higher than a 50% chance of coming true."
  — Isaac Saul ([04:28])

Important Timestamps

• [01:46] — Isaac Saul welcomes listeners and frames the episode’s theme and personal context.
• [02:50] — Review of 2021 prediction accuracy (12 correct, 6 incorrect, 1 pending).
• [03:10] — Honest assessment of risks in public forecasts.
• [03:50] — Reflection on why prediction literacy matters.
• [04:28] — Explanation of his confidence scale methodology.
• [04:50] — Episode preview ends; full content available to members only.

Tone & Style

Isaac Saul’s tone is candid, reflective, and a bit self-deprecating. He balances seriousness about the limitations of predictions with a sense of fun and intellectual curiosity, engaging listeners as partners in thoughtful speculation.

Summary for New Listeners

This episode offers a transparent, introspective look at political forecasting—both the wins and the misses. Isaac Saul demonstrates accountability for past predictions and a willingness to put his judgment on the line again, all while encouraging listeners to get involved in the exercise. The preview teases an engaging members-only segment featuring 19 new predictions, each with context and a confidence rating. For the full list, listeners are directed to Tangle’s newsletter or premium podcast subscription.

For more content, full episodes, and access to Isaac Saul’s 19 new predictions, visit readtangle.com.