PREVIEW: The Friday Edition. - My worst takes from the last five years.

Summary

Tangle Podcast – PREVIEW: The Friday Edition. "My worst takes from the last five years."

Host: Isaac Saul
Date: June 12, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this special Friday Edition, Isaac Saul takes a candid look back at several of his political predictions and opinions from the past five years that didn’t age well. In the spirit of transparency and personal growth, Isaac revisits these "bad takes," explains his original thinking, reflects on what actually happened, and teases out lessons learned. The episode is a mix of humility, news analysis, and insight into the unpredictability of politics and commentary.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Introduction & Setting (02:17)

• Isaac welcomes listeners from Berkeley Springs, West Virginia, praising the scenic location and promoting the upcoming live Tangle event.
• Underscores Tangle’s ongoing commitment to revisiting and critiquing its own reporting and commentary for accountability and learning.

Notable Quote:
"Having a bad take is a very specific kind of thing, different from missing something in a piece or analysis, stating an opinion that doesn't quite pan out or match up with reality." (03:50 – Isaac Saul)

2. Bad Take #1: "Elon Won't Meaningfully Change Twitter" (05:00)

• Original Take: Isaac, in 2022, predicted that Elon Musk's acquisition would not significantly change Twitter (now X):

  "I honestly don't think Twitter is going to change that much under Elon in five years. I suspect we'll view it as one of the great overreactions of 2022." (04:45 – Isaac Saul, quoting himself)

• Reality:
  • Musk dramatically changed Twitter’s verification policy, now allowing anyone to buy a blue checkmark.
  • The platform has seen increased bot activity, spam, and engagement farming.
  • Introduction of Grok, Musk’s chatbot, alters platform dynamics.
  • The “For You” algorithm now seems more reflective of Musk’s political leanings.
  • Increase in graphic content and return of previously banned accounts, but continued exclusion for critics of Musk.
  • Some positive changes: geolocation transparency and scaled-up Community Notes.
• Reflection:
  • Isaac concedes he was “very wrong,” noting both significant good and bad changes, with Twitter/X being fundamentally different from its 2022 version.

Memorable Moment:
"Undeniably, nearly four years after sending this tweet, the platform has changed in big and small ways." (08:56 – Isaac Saul)

3. Bad Take #2: "Biden Won't Pardon Hunter" (10:28)

• Original Take:
  • In June 2024, Isaac wrote:

    "I have a hard time imagining [Hunter Biden] going to jail as part of his sentence. And I also think it is incredibly unlikely and would be very unwise for President Biden to get involved in any way, like by trying to pardon him." (10:32 – Isaac Saul, quoting himself)

• Reality:
  • December 2024: President Biden issued a full and unconditional pardon for Hunter, covering criminal acts from 2014–2024, despite previous public assurances against this action.
  • The pardon start date aligns with Hunter’s involvement with Burisma Holdings, inviting political suspicion.
  • On his way out, Biden also pardoned other family members and political allies.
• Reflection:
  • Isaac admits misreading Biden’s willingness to break norms and notes how taking politicians’ word at face value can lead to predictive errors.

Notable Quote:
"Not only did Biden pardon his son at the end of his term, but he also issued blanket pardons for other members of his family and several political allies on the way out the door. Suffice it to say, I was wrong on all accounts." (11:57 – Isaac Saul)

4. Bad Take #3: "Spencer Pratt Will Be a Competitive LA Mayoral Candidate" (12:20)

• Original Take:
  • In June 2026, Isaac speculated:

    "He may not even make it to the general election. But unlike Hilton, I can't shake the feeling that if he ends up in a head to head race with Bass, he’s got an actual shot at upending decades of political assumptions in America's second largest metropolis." (12:23 – Isaac Saul, quoting himself)

• Reality:
  • Pratt failed to advance to the general election; top two Democrats secured 63.3% of votes, demonstrating little appetite for a Republican challenger.
• Reflection:
  • Isaac notes that Los Angeles politics are more likely to be disrupted from the progressive left, not the populist right, contradicting his earlier implication.

Notable Quote:
"Put it this way, if Pratt, running as a de facto Republican, can't even beat out a far left progressive, he doesn't provide a shot across the bow of the Democratic establishment, at least not from the right." (13:09 – Isaac Saul)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:17] – Introduction from Berkeley Springs; event plug
• [03:50] – What constitutes a “bad take” and the purpose of revisiting them
• [05:00] – Elon Musk & Twitter/X prediction analysis
• [08:56] – Reflection on the extent/nature of Twitter’s transformation
• [10:28] – Biden’s pardon of Hunter Biden: expectations vs. outcome
• [11:57] – Lessons learned on presidential pardons and political norms
• [12:20] – Spencer Pratt’s LA mayoral candidacy and that prediction’s flop
• [13:09] – Reflection on political landscape mis-reading

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Notable Quotes & Tone

• The episode is marked by Isaac’s humility, wit, and willingness to own up to mistakes. He maintains a conversational, self-effacing tone (e.g., “I was wrong, very wrong”), and remains analytical throughout.
• The language is direct, accessible, and peppered with good-natured humor ("We had a laugh and we talked about why the take was so bad…").
• Isaac continually emphasizes Tangle’s commitment to accountability and learning from the past.

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Closing

The preview ends after the third “bad take,” with executive producer John Law encouraging listeners to subscribe for the full episode and additional Tangle content. There is no further substantive content after 13:23.

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For Listeners Who Haven't Tuned In

This episode provides both a rare look behind the scenes of political commentary—admitting errors and the messy, ever-changing predictions involved—and concrete examples of how assumptions about politics, tech, and social dynamics can go awry, even for seasoned observers. Isaac’s honesty and analytical breakdowns make for an engaging listen or read, especially for those interested in critical self-reflection and the pitfalls of prediction.

Transcript

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From executive producer Isaac Saul. This is Tangle.

[Isaac Saul]

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast. The place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Sul. Friday's here. Mazel tov for surviving another week. We have arrived in Berkeley Springs, West Virginia and I just have to start by saying it is as advertised, gorgeous rolling hills and woods, a quaint downtown, fantastic restaurants and spas peppering the area. We've been promoting this event we're doing on Sunday, this Sunday, June 14th, two days from now as an opportunity for some relaxation and recuperation before witnessing a live recording of the Tango podcast and I am more adamant than ever that you must come see this place. It is awesome. We have 48 hours till the matinee live show. It is not too late to get tickets. There's still some GA tickets left though. The VIP event on Saturday night is sold out and I am now officially fully confident that you will not regret it. Now that I'm sitting here in Berkeley Springs, so just wanted to make sure you knew that the ticket link is in the episode description. It's in today's newsletter. It's up on readtangle.com live. I encourage you to check it out. With that, we're gonna hop into today's podcast. A few weeks ago, a friend of mine sent me a screenshot of a tweet that I posted online in 2022. The tweet was me saying, quote, I honestly don't think Twitter is gonna change that much under Elon in five years. I suspect we'll view it as one of the great overreactions of 2022. My friend didn't have to add any context. I knew his point was, wow, look how wrong you were. We had a laugh and we talked about why the take was so bad, which I'm going to discuss more in a minute. And then it got me thinking. What other things have I whiffed on in the last few years? Here at Tango, we regularly revisit our past writing and reporting to see how it's aged and note when we've changed our minds. I've also written before about things I've gotten wrong and right as a way of both holding myself accountable and growing as a thinker. But those exercises are usually an annual recounting of our own analysis, opinion writing, or predictions. Having a bad take is a very specific kind of thing, different from missing something in a piece or analysis, stating an opinion that doesn't quite pan out or match up with reality. For example, it might be my opinion that Los Angeles electorate was ripe for an insurgent candidate, but my take was that Spencer Pratt would give Karen Bass a run for her money. A take, I'd say, is about formulating a view in real time, reacting to the news with some kind of novel or distinguishing angle. In the case above, everyone was freaking out about Elon taking over Twitter, and my take was that he actually wouldn't change the platform all that much. I was wrong, very wrong, and it made me think about other takes of mine that have aged poorly over the years. So I asked my team to help me compile a list of some of my worst takes from the last five years, and together we came up with today's piece. I'll share some reflections after each take, and then at the end try to identify patterns in where I aired. First up, Elon won't meaningfully change Twitter, and here's what I said again on October 4th, 2020 I honestly don't think Twitter is going to change that much under Elon in five years. I suspect we'll view it as one of the great overreactions of 2022. Here's what actually happened. Twitter now X has changed a lot. Perhaps most notably, Musk completely upended the platform's verification policy, and any account willing to cough up a few dollars per month can now get the coveted blue check mark that used to be reserved for significant public figures. This has made discerning the authentic accounts from the fakes and the people with real life followings from the random keyboard warriors much harder. At the same time, bot activity, engagement, farming and spam all seem to have gotten much worse. And no discussion about bots on X is complete without talking about Grok, the Musk owned chatbot, which is all over the platform, responding to people and fact checking posts. The responses to many posts are choked with users asking Grok to explain it to them. The algorithmic for your page seems like a mirror of Musk's politics, something that has been fleshed out in reporting alleging he thumbs the scales. Graphic violence and pornography are also harder to avoid than they were before. And while more previously banned accounts are back, Musk X is hardly a bastion of free speech. Plenty of accounts, especially those that draw Musk ire, have been banned or throttled. Some changes were not directly tied to Musk's actions, and others have been good. For instance, many people on the left fled the platform for Twitter copycats like Threads or Bluesky, making the platform less ideologically diverse. Musk didn't decide they should leave. They did it themselves. Though of course, plenty of people blame him for the exodus. The new feature that shows a user's geolocation is a big boon to transparency on the site, and helpful tools like Community Notes, which Musk rebranded, were scaled up substantially, becoming genuinely valuable features of X. I think Community Notes can still be improved, especially for timeliness, but some of those improvements are already coming. Musk said last week that a new feature will notify people who interacted with a post that now has a Community Note, which is a great update. But undeniably, nearly four years after sending this tweet, the platform has changed in big and small ways. We'll be right back after this quick break. Missed calls and slow follow ups are silent killers. That's how businesses leave money on the table without even realizing it. And that's why today's episode is brought to you by Quo, spelled Q U O. That's the business communication system built so you never miss a call. With Quo, your entire team can handle calls and texts from one shared number so you don't miss messages or drop conversations. Everyone sees the full thread, replies are faster and customers actually feel taken care of. 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[Isaac Saul]

Next up is my take that Biden won't pardon Hunter. Here's what I said on June 10, 2024 quote I really don't know what will happen if Hunter gets convicted. I have a hard time imagining him going to jail as part of his sentence. And I also think it is incredibly unlikely and would be very unwise for President Biden to get involved involved in any way, like by trying to pardon him. Here's what actually happened. In December 2024, President Biden issued a full and unconditional pardon of his son Hunter for any criminal acts committed between January 1, 2014 and December 1, 2024. The younger Biden was convicted earlier in 2024 on felony gun charges and pleaded guilty to felony tax offenses. In a timeline that invites maximum suspicion, the pardon start date coincided with the year Hunter Biden joined the board of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings. Republicans have alleged Hunter illegally profited from when Hunter went to trial earlier that year. I took President Biden at his word, thinking that pardoning his son would be too politically disastrous for him to do, especially after he explicitly said he wouldn't. I also thought, despite Biden's flaws as a politician, that he was an institutionalist at heart who was too attached to norms to issue a family pardon, especially given the precedent doing so would set for his eventual successor. Not only did Biden pardon his son at the end of his term, but he also issued blanket pardons for other members of his family and several political allies on the way out the door. Suffice it to say, I was wrong on all accounts. All right, next up is my take that Spencer Pratt will give Karen Bass a run for her money. What I said on June 4, 2026 quote is Pratt the favorite? Of course not. He may not even make it to the general election. But unlike Hilton, I can't shake the feeling that if he ends up in a head to head race with Bass, he' got an actual shot at upending decades of political assumptions in America's second largest metropolis. Even in a loss against Mayor Karen Bass, a competitive race could serve as a shot across the bow of the Democratic establishment. I'll be watching very closely what actually happened. This one didn't take long. Pratt ended up not even advancing to the general election, and the combined votes of the top two Democratic candidates made up 63.3% of the votes cast as of Friday morning, a sign that a registered Republican like him never really had much of a prayer. I was wise enough to hedge that he might not make it to the general, but in retrospect, saying that he would have been at all competitive with Bass if he had made it seems fanciful now that the full results have come in. Put it this way, if Pratt, running as a de facto Republican, can't even beat out a far left progressive, he doesn't provide a shot across the bow of the Democratic establishment, at least not from the right. If Los Angeles or California politics are ripe to be upended in any way, it's with a challenge from the progressive left, not the populist right as my writing implied.

[John Law]

Hey everybody, this is John, Executive Producer for Tangle. We hope you enjoyed this preview of our latest episode. If you are not currently a newsletter subscriber or a premium podcast subscriber and you are enjoying the this content and would like to finish it, you can go to readtangle.com and sign up for a newsletter subscription. Or you can sign up for a podcast subscription or a bundled subscription, which gets you both the podcast and the newsletter and unlocks the rest of this episode as well as ad free daily podcasts, more Friday editions, Sunday editions, bonus content, interviews and so much more. Most importantly, we just want to say thank you so much for your support. We're working hard to bring you much more content and more offerings, so stay tuned. I will join you again for the daily podcast. For the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day y'. All. Peace.

[Isaac Saul]

Our Executive Editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul and our Executive Producer is John Law. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Todd. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will Kbach and Associate Editors Audrey Moorhead, Lindsey Knuth and Bailey Saul. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our [e-mail].

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