Tangle Podcast Episode Summary: "PREVIEW - The Friday Edition: One Last Look at Why Harris Lost the 2024 Election"

Hosted by Isaac Saul, the "Tangle" podcast offers independent, non-partisan political analysis by presenting diverse viewpoints from across the political spectrum. In this episode, Isaac Saul conducts a comprehensive post-election analysis to understand the factors leading to Kamala Harris's loss in the 2024 election.

Introduction

[02:00] Isaac Saul opens the episode by framing the discussion around the complexities of analyzing election outcomes amidst the "fog of war" — a metaphor for the uncertainty and evolving understanding of historical events as they unfold. He emphasizes the challenge of distilling the multifaceted reasons behind an election result into a coherent narrative, aiming to provide a holistic overview rather than a singular explanation.

Part 1: Describing the Election Results

Isaac Saul begins by addressing the immediate aftermath of Election Day, noting that the press largely portrayed Trump's victory as a "decisive electoral blowout." He concurs with this characterization but adds nuance by comparing the scale of the 2024 victory to previous elections.

• Electoral Performance:

  • Trump's Victory: Won all seven battleground states.
  • Congressional Shifts: Republicans transitioned from a Senate minority to a three-seat majority and retained the House of Representatives.
  • Popular Vote: Harris amassed more votes in key states combined than Biden did individually, yet Trump is projected to secure the national popular vote, marking the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to do so.

• Historical Context:

  • Electoral College Comparison: Trump's 312 Electoral College votes surpass Biden's 306 in 2020 but fall short of Obama's 332 in 2012. Nonetheless, his performance is notable as being on par with his 2016 run and Biden's 2020 campaign.

Notable Quote:

"Trump won decisively. He didn't achieve a historic blowout, but he and the Republican Party have definitively taken the federal levers of power in the United States." — Isaac Saul, [03:15]

Part 2: The Deciding Factor – The Economy

Isaac Saul identifies the economy as the pivotal issue that determined the election's outcome.

• Economic Indicators vs. Public Perception:

  • Democratic Messaging: Emphasized low unemployment, easing inflation, and GDP growth to illustrate economic success under the Biden-Harris administration.
  • Voter Reality: Despite favorable macroeconomic numbers, many voters experienced tangible hardships such as inflation, rising costs of living, and increased financial strain.

• Insights from Annie Lowry, The Atlantic:

  • Cost of Living Crisis: Highlighted the disconnect between strong headline economic figures and the deteriorating financial well-being of average families.
  • Key Issues Affecting Voters:
    • Decline in real median household income.
    • Increased poverty and jobless rates.
    • Rising costs of rent, credit card debt, and essential services like healthcare and food.
    • Expiration of government aid programs exacerbated financial instability.

Notable Quote:

"The cost of living crisis became the defining issue of the campaign and one where incumbent Democrats' messaging felt false and weak." — Isaac Saul, [07:45]

Timestamp Reference:
Isaac reads Annie Lowry’s analysis, reinforcing the economic grievances that overshadowed Democratic messaging. ([05:30])

Part 3: Auxiliary Issues Affecting the Election

In the third segment, Isaac Saul delves into additional factors that influenced the election outcome beyond the primary economic concerns.

• Blueprint Polling Insights:

  • Top Voter Concerns:
    1. High inflation under the Biden-Harris administration.
    2. Increased illegal immigration.
    3. Perceived focus on cultural issues (e.g., transgender rights) over middle-class concerns.

• Demographic Realignment:

  • Shifts in Voter Bases:
    • Democrats lost support predominantly among non-white voters, a reversal of trends seen since Trump's emergence in 2016.
    • White male voters, previously a strong base for Democrats, continued to drift towards Trump.
    • Trump exceeded his previous performance with younger and low-income voters, establishing a sustained favorability.

• Global Context on Incumbency:

  • Incumbent Challenges:
    • Referencing John Byrne Murdoch's analysis for the Financial Times, Isaac notes that incumbents globally faced defeats in the 2024 election cycle, a historic trend not seen in nearly 120 years.
    • Despite this global downturn for incumbents, Harris performed relatively better, attributed to a more robust economic recovery in the U.S. post-pandemic and the highly polarized political environment.

• Immigration Crisis:

  • Border Crossings: Reached an all-time high in 2022 with 2.2 million crossings, diversified in origin beyond traditional countries.
  • Impact on Urban Centers: Major cities like New York, Denver, and Chicago experienced strains on budgets and social tensions.
  • Political Ramifications: Trump's established stance on immigration provided him with a significant advantage as the Biden-Harris administration struggled to manage border control effectively.

Notable Quote:

"Trump outperformed his previous numbers with younger voters and low income voters. This performance was a continuation of the success Trump had in 2020, success many people doubted would be replicated this time around." — Isaac Saul, [12:24]

Conclusion

Isaac Saul synthesizes the discussion by emphasizing that Harris's loss was not attributable to a single issue but rather a confluence of economic dissatisfaction, demographic shifts, ineffective messaging on key auxiliary issues, and global political trends affecting incumbents. The inability of the Democratic Party to adequately address voter grievances, particularly regarding the economy and immigration, ultimately tipped the balance in favor of Trump.

Closing Thought:

"Voters hold incumbent governments accountable for how their lives are going... Kamala Harris was not able to make abortion the issue that defined the election." — Isaac Saul, [10:50]

Isaac concludes by hinting at future analyses, including the implications for the Biden presidency, Supreme Court dynamics, congressional shifts, and the incoming administration's outlook.

Key Takeaways

• Economic Concerns: Dominated voter sentiment, overshadowing traditional Democratic messaging.
• Demographic Shifts: Democrats faced losses among non-white voters, while Trump strengthened his appeal among young and low-income demographics.
• Immigration and Social Issues: High illegal immigration rates and perceived misalignment on cultural issues detracted support from Harris.
• Global Incumbent Trends: Reflective of a broader pattern where incumbents struggled globally in the 2024 election cycle.

This comprehensive analysis by Isaac Saul provides a nuanced understanding of the multifaceted reasons behind Kamala Harris's electoral defeat, offering valuable insights for political strategists and engaged voters alike.

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