Tangle Podcast – The Friday Edition (Part 2): The Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum on the Future of the Ukraine War

Original Air Date: October 17, 2025
Host: Will K. Back (Tangle Senior Editor)
Guest: Anne Applebaum (The Atlantic)

Episode Overview

In this in-depth interview, Tangle’s Senior Editor Will K. Back speaks with renowned historian and journalist Anne Applebaum about her latest reporting on technological innovation, strategy, and shifting international perspectives in the Ukraine war. The conversation focuses on the significance of Ukraine's advances with drones, Russian political dynamics, evolving U.S. and European positions, and the possible scenarios for the war’s future. Applebaum draws on her recent Atlantic feature and experience on the ground in Kyiv to provide a nuanced look at current events, the mindset inside Ukraine, and the strategic calculations shaping the conflict’s outcome.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ukraine’s Drone Revolution and Shifting Battlefield Dynamics

• High-Tech Warfare Redefines Conflict
  Applebaum emphasizes how the Ukraine war is now "the most high tech war on the planet and it's really like no other war that has ever been. It's a drone war now." (03:59)

  • Tanks and artillery are less pivotal; drones (both battlefield and long-range) are central.
  • Ukrainians have proven technically adept, creating successes with both military and underwater drones.

• Impact Inside Russia

  • Strikes have targeted Russian oil refineries, pipelines, and other economic infrastructure.
  • "We know already that it's made a difference because the... quantity of Russian oil imports has dropped. It's now at the lowest point that it's been in the war. And... there are fuel shortages all over Russia." (05:12)
  • Even Russian state media now acknowledges domestic fuel shortages, albeit with alternative explanations.

• Shifting War Calculus

  • Applebaum likens a potential turning point to other colonial wars: “There will be some moment when the people of the colonial power... conclude that the war is no longer necessary or it's no longer useful to them. It's a moment you had in the British occupation of India... in the French war against Algeria.” (06:31)
  • Early signs of elite dissent, including the suspicious deaths of senior Russian figures, suggest the strain is growing.

2. Russia as a Colonial Power – Internal and External Pressures

• Russian Self-Perception and Goals

  • Applebaum: "Russia is a colonial power. It thinks of itself as the colonial power in the region of Eastern Europe. It has a memory of its empire being larger." (07:03)
  • Cites Putin’s rhetoric: "Anywhere where there has ever been a Russian soldier could be Russia again." (07:10)
  • The ideological objective: Reestablishing empire by subjugating Ukraine and denying its legitimacy as a country.

• Domestic Willingness for War

  • Despite measured opposition to the war among the Russian public, the momentum for change depends on when the sacrifices outweigh perceived benefits for the elite.

3. The U.S. and Trump Administration’s Evolving Stance

• Uncertainty About U.S. Policy

  • Responding to Trump’s conflicting statements, Applebaum voices skepticism:
    "Honestly, I have trouble seeing that there's any strategy towards Ukraine at all from the Trump administration." (09:07)
  • Suggests Trump’s position is mercurial, not strategic, and that Ukraine is preparing for diminishing U.S. support.

• Ukrainian Independence from U.S. Supply Chains

  • Ukrainian innovation is now occurring with minimal reliance on U.S. (or Chinese) components:
    "We don't use any American components. You know, we're trying to get away from any American input, of course, Chinese input as well." (10:52)

4. Mood and Resolve Inside Ukraine

• Resilience Despite Fatigue

  • Applebaum describes a society exhausted by war, yet resolute:
    "We're going to keep fighting. We're doing our jobs, we are going to keep our technology at the cutting edge as much as we can, and we're going to continue to win." (13:02)
  • There is broad weariness, but no desire among Ukraine’s political, business, or military elite to stop resisting.

• Willingness to Negotiate

  • Ukrainian leadership would accept a ceasefire or a frozen conflict on current lines, but sees no reciprocal willingness from Russia.

5. Putin’s End Goals and the Prospect of Escalation

• No Indications Putin Wants to Cease Hostilities

  • "Publicly he has never said that he wants to end the war. The opposite… He keeps saying very aggressive things. His propagandists say aggressive things." (15:12)
  • Propaganda continues to stoke public animosity and justify further action.

• On the Nuclear Question

  • Outlines the nuclear threat as largely rhetorical:
    "It's very hard to see how they could use nuclear weapons in a way that would even help them win the war... They'd been explicitly warned not to do that by the Chinese and by the Indians..." (16:37)
  • Ukrainians themselves see this as a bluff.

6. NATO, "Provocations," and the Risk of Wider War

• Escalation: Realistic or Remote?
  • Incidents like airspace violations are likely meant to "separate the US And Europe" and "break up NATO."
  • "Could a European country shoot down a Russian plane? Yeah, I think it's possible... Are the Russians thinking long term about some kind of bigger conflict? They certainly say they are. Again, I have to go with what they say in public..." (18:40)

7. Assessment of U.S. and European Policy

• Biden Administration’s Approach: Directionally Right, But Overcautious
  • “The mistake that [the Biden administration] made, I believe, was to be over cautious. In other words, they were spooked by the nuclear threats... That might have been the moment to let them hit longer range targets or to be more aggressive.” (22:31)
  • Points out the evolution of Ukraine’s technological capacity and U.S. sanctions policies.
  • Criticizes the Trump administration approach: "They just don't do it anymore." (24:03)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Drones' Impact:
  "We know already that it's made a difference because the Russian quantity of Russian oil imports has dropped... there are fuel shortages all over Russia." (05:12) — Anne Applebaum

• On Russian Colonial Mindset:
  "Putin himself has said... anywhere where there has ever been a Russian soldier could be Russia again." (07:10) — Anne Applebaum

• On Trump's Ukraine Strategy:
  "Honestly, I have trouble seeing that there's any strategy towards Ukraine at all from the Trump administration... I'm not sure he has thought it through." (09:07) — Anne Applebaum

• On Ukrainian Morale:
  "We don't have a choice. We're going to keep fighting. We're doing our jobs, we are going to keep our technology at the cutting edge as much as we can, and we're going to continue to win." (13:02) — Anne Applebaum

• On Nuclear Threats from Russia:
  "It feels to me like a huge bluff. And so I don't, and actually the Ukrainians... also think it's a bluff. And so if they're not afraid, then I don't see why other people should be." (16:56) — Anne Applebaum

• On Policy Caution:
  "The mistake that [the Biden administration] made, I believe, was to be over cautious... There have been a couple of moments when Ukrainians had a chance to end the war by taking back their land and the Biden people were over cautious." (22:31) — Anne Applebaum

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Drone Warfare and Impact Inside Russia: 03:53–06:51
• Russia’s Colonial Mindset: 07:01–08:18
• U.S./Trump Administration Policy: 08:18–11:06
• Mood in Ukraine: 12:30–15:04
• Putin’s Stance and Nuclear Question: 15:04–17:43
• Risk of NATO Escalation: 17:43–20:20
• Assessment of U.S./European Policy: 21:33–24:42

Tone and Style

Applebaum’s tone throughout is analytical, cautious, and informed by on-the-ground experience and historical perspective. She balances technological and strategic insight with skepticism about Western indecision and a profound understanding of the stakes for Ukraine and Europe.

This episode delivers a timely, multifaceted analysis of how the character of the Ukraine war is changing, what lessons the West and Russia are (or are not) taking from events, and where the conflict might ultimately be headed.