Tangle Friday Edition PREVIEW: Russian Expert Richard Sakwa and the Future of the Ukraine War (Part 1)

Podcast: Tangle
Host: Will Kaback (Senior Editor)
Guest: Richard Sakwa (Emeritus Professor of Russian and European Politics, University of Kent)
Date: October 17, 2025

Episode Overview

This Friday Edition of Tangle features an in-depth interview with Richard Sakwa, a prominent scholar on Russia and Ukraine, about the origins, escalation, and possible future of the Ukraine war. The episode scrutinizes Western and Russian perspectives, challenges the prevailing narratives, and explores whether there is any path to a peaceful resolution. Key questions include the causes of the conflict, the roles of the West, NATO, and each US administration, and the prospects for ending a seemingly intractable war.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Complexity of the Ukraine Conflict (06:45-11:38)

• Two Dominant Narratives in the West:

  • The conflict is interpreted either as Russian imperial expansion/Putin-as-Hitler, or as a diversionary move due to Russian domestic troubles.
  • Sakwa's View: Both explanations are insufficient and “not credible.” He emphasizes Putin’s regime's stability and popularity (“well into the 80% popular support” [08:08]) and proposes a different multi-faceted root cause.

• Four Layers of Causation:

  1. Internal Ukrainian Conflict:
     • The absence of a pluralistic/multicultural constitutional settlement, especially for regions like Donbas.
     • “What we really did need to see within Ukraine is a pluralistic, multi-confessional, multicultural, multilingual settlement, possibly including federalism.” – Sakwa [07:46]
  2. Ukrainian-Russian Tensions:
     • Rooted in long, intertwined histories and post-1991 frictions. Ukrainian nationalism became “prickly, insecure,” leading to antagonism.
  3. Pan-European Failure:
     • The missed opportunity for a “common European home” after the Cold War.
  4. US-Russian Relationship:
     • The US insistence on Euro-Atlantic dominance prevented autonomous European security arrangements.
     • “After 1945 a political West took shape… After the end of the Cold War, the United States insisted on maintaining its hegemony.” – Sakwa [09:58]
  • Metaphor: The conflict is like a “Rubik’s cube”—all sides must line up to solve it, making resolution “jolly difficult.”

2. Escalation & Status Four Years In (11:38-13:46)

• Worsening Situation:
  • “Each one has become far, far worse, even more difficult to resolve. Internal conflict within Ukraine is far, far more bitter and polarized.” – Sakwa [11:52]
  • Europe is “up a creek without a paddle”; the “coalition of the willing is a farce.”
  • Trump and European leaders have failed to break the deadlock.
  • “Sadly, it looks as if we’re heading towards the only solution being a military one, which of course has the huge danger of a third world war and escalating.” – Sakwa [13:31]

3. Trump vs. Biden Approaches (15:01-19:12)

• Expectations vs. Reality with Trump:
  • Early hopes Trump would pursue constructive relations with Russia (“if he couldn’t do it in his first term because of Russiagate…”).
  • “We’ve seen in these last eight months a litany of failure. We now understand that he simply does not understand the deeper, what Putin would call the root causes.” – Sakwa [15:54]
• Contrasting Styles:
  • Biden: No contact with Moscow after the war began; communications composed of “a series of threats.” [16:34]
  • Trump: Seen as “a bit like a weather vane,” swayed by whichever capital is loudest—Brussels, Kyiv, or Moscow.
• The “Four Defections” of the Trump Era (17:08-19:12):
  1. From the “political West”/Euro-Atlantic alliance.
  2. From the United Nations–based international law system.
  3. From the U.S. Constitution (“lawfare”).
  4. From the administrative state (Bannonist deconstruction).
  • “In that package, there were some positives. Clearly, NATO is a dysfunctional organization internally and catastrophic for Europe and global politics internationally… It basically exists to sustain its own existence and therefore to do that, it has to foster and generate conflict.” – Sakwa [18:10]

4. Putin’s (Non)-Imperial Ambitions & NATO (19:12-23:27)

• Rejects the 'Domino Theory':
  • The claim that, if not stopped in Ukraine, Russia would roll into the Baltics or elsewhere.
  • “Absolutely not. This is a replay of the old Vietnam domino theory…” – Sakwa [19:33]
• War is About Security:
  • The war stems primarily from Russia’s security fears, not imperial restoration.
  • U.S./NATO missile deployments near Russia were a key pre-invasion concern.
  • “It was always about security... Gorbachev said the same thing about NATO enlargement, Yeltsin said the same thing, and Putin… It would always be that concern.” – Sakwa [21:58]

5. Russian Security Concerns Explained (23:27-24:22)

• Geographic Vulnerability:
  • Russia “doesn’t have defensible borders,” "almost very limited access to the open sea.”
  • “There’s always been security concerns and… a whole history of invasions… from the Poles to the Swedes to the French to the Germans, twice with devastating consequences.” – Sakwa [23:44]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Internal Ukrainian Politics:
  "[The Donbas rebellion]... was for what the Russians say... autonomy... failure to reflect Ukraine’s multicultural... demographic, cultural, religious framework, giving it constitutional form." – Sakwa [07:46]

• On Western Interpretations:
  "Neither of these versions are credible... Internally, the Putin regime is remarkably stable." – Sakwa [08:01]

• Wrap-Up on Solution Prospects:
  “The only solution being a military one... has the huge danger of a third world war and escalating.” – Sakwa [13:37]

• On Trump as Diplomat:
  "He’s a bit like a weather vane. The wind blows from Brussels, he goes that way, from Kiev, he goes that way." – Sakwa [16:09]

• On NATO:
  “NATO is a dysfunctional organization internally and... catastrophic. It keeps boasting... It basically exists to sustain its own existence and therefore to do that, it has to foster and generate conflict.” – Sakwa [18:10]

• On Putin’s Intentions:
  “The idea that [the Russian army] will then roll forwards into the Baltic republics... there is not a shred of evidence that the goal is to restore the Russian empire. The goal was always about security.” – Sakwa [20:49]

• Summing Up Russian Fears:
  "Russia does not have defensible borders... there’s always been security concerns and of course, a whole history of invasions..." – Sakwa [23:44]

Key Timestamps

• 02:09 – Episode introduction, context for the interviews, aims.
• 05:59 – Richard Sakwa joins; opening on conflict origins.
• 06:45 – 11:38 – Sakwa explains the four-layered root causes.
• 11:52 – State of the conflict and increased intractability.
• 15:01 – Discussion shifts to Trump vs. Biden approaches.
• 17:10 – The “four defections” and consequences for global governance.
• 19:33 – Sakwa debunks notion of Russian imperial ambitions.
• 21:58 – Security, not imperialism, as core Russian concern.
• 23:44 – Detailed explanation of Russian strategic insecurity.

Summary for Non-Listeners

This episode offers a sharply critical, deeply informed perspective largely absent from mainstream U.S. discourse about the Ukraine war. Richard Sakwa meticulously disassembles popular Western narratives about Russian expansionism and U.S. “good intentions,” instead situating the conflict in a web of failed post-Cold War diplomacy, Western missteps, and abiding Russian security anxieties.

While acknowledging Putin’s authoritarian and aggressive policies, Sakwa insists that true resolution is all but impossible without transforming the underlying Russian-Ukrainian, pan-European, and U.S.-Russian relationships—and that current Western policies, especially those toward NATO expansion, have made war more likely. Neither the Biden nor Trump approach has moved the dial toward peace, and Sakwa worries that military escalation is becoming the only path left.

Listeners are left with a challenge to re-examine assumptions about the war’s “good guys” and “bad guys,” and to consider the grim prospect that, barring a diplomatic breakthrough, escalation and prolonged suffering may be inevitable.

This preview interview continues for premium subscribers and is paired with an upcoming episode featuring Anne Applebaum for a sharply contrasting perspective.