Tangle Podcast Episode Summary: “PREVIEW - The Friday Edition: Tracking Trump's Promises and Key Metrics for America”

Release Date: January 17, 2025
Host: Isaac Saul
Podcast: Tangle

Introduction

In the preview episode of Tangle’s special Friday Edition, host Isaac Saul outlines an ambitious project aimed at tracking the performance and promises of the incoming Trump administration. This comprehensive approach sets clear benchmarks across various economic and political indicators, ensuring accountability and providing listeners with a detailed roadmap to assess the administration’s impact over the next two to four years.

Setting the Benchmarks

Isaac Saul [02:04]:
“Today we are going to be setting some benchmarks for the Trump administration and the Trump presidency, taking stock of where the country is and laying out a few things that we hope to check in on in a few years.”

Saul emphasizes the departure from traditional presidential rankings, focusing instead on the fulfillment of campaign promises and the tangible outcomes of the administration’s policies. With an expanded team at Tangle, Saul aims to provide a more detailed and longitudinal analysis compared to previous assessments.

Economic Metrics

1. Gas Prices

• Current Status [02:04]:
  The national average price for a gallon of Regular gas is $3.12, a slight increase from $3.07 a year ago, as per the AAA’s fuel prices tracker.

2. Housing Market

• Case-Shiller Index [02:04]:
  324.22, up from 312.96 the previous year.
• Median Home Prices [02:04]:
  Stands at $420,400 in Q3 2024 according to the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
• Rental Market [02:04]:
  • Median Asking Rent: $1,594 in December 2024, showing stability from the previous year.
  • Vacancy Rates: Tracked in the 10 largest US cities via the Census Bureau.

Note: Saul cautions that housing metrics are often lagging indicators of the economy’s health.

3. Financial Markets

• Stock Indices [02:04]:
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 43,153
  • S&P 500: 5,937
  • NASDAQ: 19,338
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.61%

4. Personal Finances

• Personal Savings Rate [10:01]: 4.4%
• Household Debt:
  • Housing Debt: $12.98 trillion
  • Non-Housing Debt: $4.96 trillion
• Credit Card Debt: $1.17 trillion, an 8.1% increase year-over-year.

5. Economic Activity

• GDP Growth [10:01]:
  • Q3 2024: 3.1%
  • Q2 2024: 3.0%
  • Q1 2024: 1.3%
  • Total GDP as of Q3 2024: $29.4 trillion

6. Employment

• Unemployment Rate [10:01]: 4.1% in December 2024, stable over the past seven months.
• Non-Farm Payroll Employment: Increased by 256,000 to a total of 160 million.
• Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5%
• Job Seekers Not in the Labor Force: 5.5 million

7. Inflation

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) [10:01]:
  • December 2024: 2.9% annual increase
  • Monthly change: 0.4%
• Core CPI: Increased by 0.2% monthly.
• Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE):
  • Annual: 2.4%
  • Monthly: 0.1%

8. Consumer Confidence

• University of Michigan’s Index [10:01]: 73.2 in January 2025
  • Down 1.1% from the previous month
  • Down 7.3% year-over-year

9. Interest Rates

• Federal Funds Rate: 4.25% - 4.5%
  • 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 7.04%, up from 6.08% in September 2024

10. Domestic Oil Production

• Crude Oil Production [10:01]: 13,457,000 barrels per day in October 2024
  • 21% increase since January 2021
  • 5% increase since March 2020

11. National Debt and Deficit

• Total National Debt [10:01]: $35.46 trillion in FY 2024
• National Deficit: $710.94 billion as of October 2024

Promises of the Trump Administration

Saul transitions from hard metrics to evaluating the Trump administration’s campaign promises, tracking their implementation and effectiveness.

1. Social Security Taxation

• Promise [17:35]:
  Isaac Saul:
  “Trump said he would eliminate the federal income tax some Social Security recipients pay on their benefits.”
• Tracking Point:
  Whether any tax reform includes eliminating federal income taxes on Social Security benefits.

2. War in Ukraine

• Promise [17:35]:
  Isaac Saul:
  “Trump promised to help negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, either before his inauguration or in the early days of his presidency.”
• Tracking Point:
  The achievement of a negotiated end to the conflict and the US’s role in the resolution.

3. Israel-Palestine-Gaza Conflict

• Promise [17:35]:
  Isaac Saul:
  “Trump promised to secure a deal to end the war in Gaza before his inauguration.”
• Tracking Point:
  Progress and sustainability of ceasefire deals and the prevention of new conflicts in the Middle East.

4. Tariffs on Imports

• Promise [17:35]:
  Isaac Saul:
  “Trump proposed implementing a baseline tariff of 10% on all US imports and tariffs of 60% or higher on all imports from China.”
• Tracking Point:
  Implementation of these tariffs and their economic impact, particularly on US-China trade relations.

5. Government Efficiency

• Promise [17:35]:
  Isaac Saul:
  “Trump made government efficiency and waste a key issue, appointing Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge).”
• Tracking Point:
  Success in achieving regulatory rescissions, administrative reductions, and cost savings, initially targeted at $2 trillion but later adjusted to $1 trillion in potential savings.

National Interests

Isaac Saul [02:04]:
“We’re going to evaluate national interests as the state of our national security abroad, the safety of the American people at home, and the strength of our domestic institutions.”

This section encompasses the administration’s policies and actions related to international security, domestic safety, and the robustness of institutions, ensuring a holistic view of national well-being.

Predictions from Commentators

To capture the prevailing sentiments and expert opinions on the Trump administration, Saul intends to compile and analyze predictions from various commentators. This will help in assessing the alignment between expectations and actual outcomes over time.

Conclusion

Isaac Saul [20:54]:
“We’re sort of just setting this mile marker in the road.”

By establishing these detailed benchmarks, Tangle aims to provide a transparent and accountable framework to monitor the Trump administration’s performance. The team plans to revisit these metrics in two and four years to evaluate progress and make informed assessments based on the established data.

Upcoming Episode:
Next week’s episode will delve into a comprehensive review of President Biden’s presidency, continuing the tradition of evaluating political leadership based on promises and performance.

Production Credits

• Written by: Isaac Saul
• Edited and Engineered by: John Law
• Script Editors: Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, Sean Brady
• Logo Design: Magdalena Bokova
• Music Produced by: Diet75

For more content and updates, visit readtangle.com.

Notable Quotes:

• Isaac Saul [02:04]:
  “We have a larger team now, and with all the growth over the last four years since the last change in administration, I have a lot of help now, and I set out to do this bigger project, something much more comprehensive.”

• Isaac Saul [02:04]:
  “We're going to track whether any tax reform legislation passed during Trump's term includes a provision that eliminates federal income taxes on Social Security payments.”

• Isaac Saul [17:35]:
  “Trump promised to secure a deal to end the war in Gaza before his inauguration, saying that broader conflicts in the Middle East were going to get solved.”

This detailed summary encapsulates the core discussions and plans outlined in the Tangle podcast’s preview episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the metrics and promises that will define the Trump administration’s legacy.