Tangle Podcast Summary

Episode: PREVIEW: The Friday Edition - Trump’s first year: a nonpartisan scorecard
Host: Isaac Saul
Air Date: January 23, 2026

Overview

This episode of Tangle offers a rigorous, nonpartisan assessment of President Donald Trump’s first year of his second term. The team uses a set of objective, pre-established metrics ranging from economic indicators to campaign promises, national interests, and national mood predictions. The aim is to provide listeners with an unbiased, data-driven “scorecard” for Trump’s performance and to set a benchmark for annual reviews across the duration of his term.

“Today’s edition is our best effort at reviewing Trump’s presidency dispassionately, objectively, and without any of our own opinions mixed in.”
— Isaac Saul (04:37)

Structure and Contributors

• The metrics are grouped into four categories:
  1. Traditional Economic Metrics
  2. Promises: Kept and Broken
  3. National Interests
  4. Predictions & National Mood
• Key contributors in this episode: Isaac Saul (host), Ari Weitzman (Managing Editor), Will Kbach (Senior Editor).
• Additional voices (for workload): Audrey, Will, and Lindsay assisted in readings.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Traditional Economic Metrics

(05:29 – 24:23)

Gas Prices

• Carefully weighted by fuel type and usage for accuracy over a three-month average.
  • Jan 2025: $3.32/gallon
  • Jan 2026: $3.22/gallon (↓ 3.01%)

Housing

• Indicators: S&P Case Shiller Index, FRED median prices, Redfin rents, Census rental vacancy rates.
  • Home price index ↑ 1.4%; median home price ↓ 1.1%; median rent ↑ 2.6%; rental vacancy slightly up but stays healthy.

Financial Markets

• Dow Jones ↑ 12.1%
• S&P 500 ↑ 15.7%
• NASDAQ ↑ 20.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield ↓ 0.47 points to 4.1%

Personal Finances

• Savings rate fell from 4.77% to 3.73%
• Housing debt ↑ 3.8%, non-housing debt ↑ 1%
• Credit card balances ↑ 5.1%

GDP Growth

• 2025 GDP at annual rate of 4.4% (up 2.1 points YoY), hitting $31.1 trillion

Employment

• Unemployment rose: 4.1% ➔ 4.43%
• Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 50,000 (to 159.5M)
• Labor force participation dropped slightly
• Those not in labor force but wanting jobs ↑12.7%

Inflation

• CPI up 3.43% over baseline; Core CPI up 2.35%; PCE up 4.28%

Consumer Confidence

• University of Michigan Index dropped from 70.8 ➔ 53.4 (↓ 24.6%)

  “Consumer sentiment as of Jan 2026 is down almost 25% from where it was just before Trump took office.” — Ari Weitzman (19:09)

Interest Rates

• Fed cut rates three times in 2025, now at 3.5–3.7%
• 30-year mortgage: 6.09% (slight ↓)
• Trump has called for deeper cuts, publicly pressuring Jerome Powell.

Domestic Oil Production

• Record high: from 13.3M to 13.84M barrels/day (↑3.87%)

National Debt and Deficit

• Debt: $35.46T ➔ $37.64T (↑6.1%)
• Deficit: $1.83T ➔ $1.78T (↓2.7%)
• Publicly held debt up 6.6%

2. Promises: Kept and Broken (25:12–26:55 segment preview)

Examined Promise: No tax on Social Security benefits.

• Trump’s bill added a temporary extra deduction for seniors ($6k/single, $12k/couple), claimed to "effectively" eliminate federal tax for 88% of Social Security beneficiaries.
• Reality: The tax is not definitively eliminated; deduction expires in 2028 and affects fewer than all recipients.

“Effectively, that’s almost right ... the provision definitively does not eliminate the tax on Social Security benefits.”
— Will Kbach (25:50)

3. National Interests

Segment not included in preview. Metrics promised: foreign policy, safety, domestic institutional strength combining Trump’s stated priorities and additional factors chosen by Tangle.

4. Predictions & National Mood

Segment previewed as an upcoming comparison between 2025 expert/commentator predictions and the 2026 reality—outlining public sentiment trends.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the rigor and impartiality of the process:

  “We thought we could refer back to these benchmarks periodically as a nearly unimpeachable way to judge the president’s performance.” — Isaac Saul (01:54)

• On the purpose:

  "Our goal was to take a few objective metrics to judge a president's success ... as a nearly unimpeachable way to judge the president’s performance." — Isaac Saul (01:46)

• On consumer mood:

  "Consumer sentiment as of Jan 2026 is down almost 25% from where it was just before Trump took office." — Ari Weitzman (19:09)

• On Social Security tax promise:

  “The provision definitively does not eliminate the tax on Social Security benefits. Furthermore, this is a deduction for seniors that's set to expire in 2028.” — Will Kbach (25:50)

Timestamps for Significant Segments

• Opening/Main Theme: 01:25
• Methodology & Segment Structure: 04:00–05:29
• Economic Metrics—Gas, Housing, Finance, GDP, Jobs, Inflation, Oil, Debt: 05:29–24:23
• Promises Review (Social Security): 25:12–26:55
• Noted Upcoming Segments: Further campaign promises, national security, and national mood to follow in full/premium episode.

Tone & Language

The tone is methodical and data-driven, often gently self-aware of the heavy content:

“I know it’s a lot of numbers, but I did warn you it was going to be a lot of numbers. ... If you want to stand up and get a drink of water, I don’t blame you.” — Ari Weitzman (17:57)

The podcast is careful to avoid editorializing, repeatedly clarifying that results are measured, not judged, and opinions are withheld for a separate segment.

Conclusion & Forward-Looking Notes

• The episode closes with reminders that the metrics-based review will become an annual feature, setting a precedent for evaluating presidents on hard data, not punditry.
• For a subjective, roundtable discussion with analysis and surprises, listeners are directed to a separate extended episode with Tangle's team.
• Listeners are encouraged to subscribe for full episode access and further metric breakdowns.

For listeners wanting an objective, numbers-based report card on Trump’s first year, this episode delivers. Each metric is carefully constructed to minimize bias, and future administrations will receive the same rigorous treatment.