Tangle Podcast: PREVIEW: The Friday Edition - What We Got Right and Wrong in 2025

Host: Isaac Saul
Release Date: January 9, 2026

Overview

This special “Friday Edition” of the Tangle podcast marks their annual tradition of accountability and self-review, in which the team grades their major predictions, policy takes, and analyses from 2025. Host Isaac Saul and his editorial staff revisit coverage from across the year, reflecting on their accuracy, insights, and where their initial perspectives did or didn’t hold up. The episode features a diversity of staff voices reflecting the expanded range of contributors during Isaac’s paternity leave, making for a multifaceted, candid look at the most important political events of the year from their independent, nonpartisan perspective.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Review and Grade Ourselves?

• Accountability in Media: Isaac opens by critiquing the general lack of accountability in media and broader society, stressing why Tangle’s annual tradition of reviewing and grading its takes is essential.
• Methodology: Grades are given from A-F, and a “GPA” is tabulated at the end. Stories selected are not cherry-picked for success, but chosen because they were the most impactful or widely discussed (2:10-4:10).

Quote:
“One of the things I loathe most about the media is that there’s just no accountability. … So in an attempt to live out that value, I started this tradition where we just review what we got right and wrong and grade ourselves, literally grade the work that we’ve done.”
— Isaac Saul (2:20)

2. Pete Hegseth’s Confirmation and Signal Chat Controversy

Segments: 4:30–8:53

• Initial Take: Skepticism about Hegseth’s readiness for a top defense role, given his track record of leadership issues and scandals.
• Signal Chat Incident: Covered new controversy when Hegseth allegedly leaked war plans via a Signal chat including Jeffrey Goldberg (The Atlantic).
• Reflecting: Isaac acknowledges Hegseth’s tactical successes (strikes in Iran and Venezuela, $5bn in wasteful spending cuts), but maintains skepticism about his addressing core issues (military overspending, leadership, inventory issues). Emphasizes ongoing military escalations and lack of real accountability (5:50–8:40).
• Grade: B-

Quote:
“My point has always been that Hegseth was the wrong person to address the actual problems. The military has wasteful spending, inventory issues, shaky leadership, and the risk putting our relatively safe soldiers into more danger.”
— Isaac Saul (8:05)

3. Israel-Hamas Ceasefire and Peace Plan

Segments: 8:54–12:01

• January Take: Skeptical about durability of ceasefire/peace plan; predicted difficulty in enacting and sustaining each phase.
• October Reflection: Plan collapsed, violence resumed, and hopes for peace diminished. Isaac correctly anticipated setbacks, highlighting continued Israeli military presence and expanded hostilities.
• Current Perspective: Despite some hostages returned, ongoing violence and deteriorating conditions prove skepticism warranted. Expresses deep pessimism about near-term solutions.
• Grade: B

Quote:
“Hope springs eternal, but it can also die quietly. I try to maintain my optimism, but it’s hard to. … For all intents and purposes, there is no ceasefire in Gaza.”
— Isaac Saul (11:50)

4. Biden’s Final Acts: Pardons and Commutations

Ari Weitzman Segment: 14:13–16:57

• Original Take: Focused on the sweeping nature of President Biden’s end-of-term pardons and commutations, describing them as a troubling escalation of political clemency.
• Rationale: While exoneration was likely for most, the blanket pardons set a dangerous precedent and removed public opportunity to investigate or hold to account.
• Retrospective: Ari stands by the critique but recognizes a logical inconsistency in his original position about Biden’s culpability for an escalating norm.
• Grade: B+

Quote:
“Blanket pardons for everyone I know for as far back as I can justify. … These pardons are still a terrible last move for Biden’s administration, not just because they close off a major pathway to determining whether wrongdoing occurred, but because they escalated the use of a new major weapon in the partisan arms race.”
— Ari Weitzman (14:38, original take)

5. Trump’s 2025 Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China

Will K Segment: 16:57–20:25

• Initial Analysis: Trump’s tariffs framed as responses to drug/migrant flows, but Will observed the policies’ real motivation was more about managing trade deficits.
• Results: Implementation hampered by delays and revisions; actions against Canada/Mexico produced symbolic, not substantive, results.
• Trade v. Immigration: After initial justifications faded, Trump focused on tariffs as trade policy, confirming the take’s core prediction.
• Impact on Allies: Warned tariffs would harm alliances, which was borne out over the year.
• Grade: B

Quote:
“Even for someone who follows the news as their job, keeping track of which tariffs are in effect, which are just threats, and which have been withdrawn has been a bit like playing Three card Monty.”
— Will K (18:44)

6. Future and Merger of USAID

Ari Weitzman Segment: 20:25–23:05

• Issue: USAID merged into State Department after months of upheaval.
• Ambivalence: Ari admits his initial coverage was too cautious and not sufficiently appreciative of USAID’s benefits in promoting American soft power and humanitarian influence.
• Hindsight: Merger resulted in significant diminishment of U.S. global influence; Ari should have been more forceful.
• Grade: D

Quote:
“I was too blasé about USAID’s global importance and the risk of the program getting slashed. USAID provided good value for everyone involved. … I spent too little time promoting the benefits of this program and too much time considering how a potential reorganization could be in our nation’s interests.”
— Ari Weitzman (21:54)

7. Elon Musk’s ‘What Did You Do This Week?’ Email to Federal Workers

John Law Segment: 24:34–26:50

• Event: Federal employees received a controversial demand for weekly work reporting, under threat of firing.
• Response: Agencies largely ignored the email; OPM eventually ended the requirement.
• Analysis: Tangle’s take that the move was cruel, ineffective, and silly aged very well.
• Grade: A

Quote:
“Not because federal workers are all infallible, efficient employees, but because emailing 2 million people asking them what they did that week, pretending you’re going through their responses and making employment decisions off of them, is just plain dumb.”
— Isaac Saul (25:22)

8. Patel/Bongino at the FBI

Isaac Saul Segment: 26:50–30:15

• Original Take: Predicted that Kash Patel and Dan Bongino would be disastrous FBI leaders due to partisanship, conspiracy-mongering, and threats of retribution.
• Results: Bongino quickly burned out and left, Patel mismanaged several high-profile incidents, and their actions generally undermined FBI credibility.
• Surprising Reality: Both had to temper their rhetoric in office. Tangle found some vindication in predictions.
• Grade: A

Quote:
“He and Bongino both had to spend much of their first year trying to convince their biggest fans that many of the conspiracies they pushed, like the Epstein Files, didn’t actually have much there, so much that their followers began wondering if they themselves had been compromised.”
— Isaac Saul (28:44)

9. Trump-Zelensky Oval Office Blowup (Mineral Rights Deal)

John Law Segment: 30:15–32:42

• Incident: Contentious White House meeting about Ukraine mineral rights; failed deal after Vance and Zelensky clash.
• Take: Accurately described play-by-play, but in hindsight underexplored broader peace prospects and perhaps over-credited both sides equally.
• Grade: B

Quote:
“As Trump himself said on Friday, we shouldn’t play games with World War Three. That message is applied just as well to Ukraine’s leader as it is our own.”
— Isaac Saul (31:27)

10. Columbia University Funding Cut & Mahmoud Khalil’s Arrest

John Law Segment: 32:42–35:46

• Event: Trump administration cut Columbia’s federal funding and arrested Khalil, raising intense First Amendment and civil liberties concerns.
• Take: Called it “one of the most chilling acts” by the administration—presaging a trend of aggressive deportations and free speech crackdowns.
• Reflection: Khalil’s deportation (legally justified by omission on application, but clearly a reaction to activism) confirmed the government’s willingness to use technicalities to target dissent.
• Grade: C

Quote:
“Khalil very obviously was punished for his speech. The Trump administration is not pursuing his deportation or fishing for violations like this is an audit of green card holders. They’re doing it because they want to make an example out of him, which to me, and I hope everyone else is still a terrifying flex of government power.”
— Isaac Saul (34:45)

Notable Quotes / Memorable Moments

• On Accountability in Media:
  “This lack of accountability, it extends beyond media spaces. It pervades society from the halls of Congress to the executive offices of our biggest corporations.”
  — Isaac Saul (2:35)
• On the Israel-Gaza Ceasefire:
  “Hope springs eternal, but it can also die quietly. I try to maintain my optimism, but it’s hard to.”
  — Isaac Saul (11:50)
• On the USAID Merger:
  “Government by rug pull isn’t a great strategy for the most powerful person on the planet.”
  — Ari Weitzman (21:21)
• On the OPM Email:
  “Pretending you’re going through their responses and making employment decisions off of them is just plain dumb.”
  — Isaac Saul (25:22)
• On FBI Leadership:
  “For me, watching Bongino and Patel squirm as they had to switch from talking heads to FBI officials was genuinely cathartic.”
  — Isaac Saul (28:37)
• On Khalil Deportation:
  “…clearly a reaction to activism… which to me, and I hope everyone else is still a terrifying flex of government power.”
  — Isaac Saul (34:45)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Annual Review Introduction & Approach: 01:59–04:30
• Pete Hegseth/Signal Chat: 04:30–08:53
• Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: 08:54–12:01
• Biden’s Pardons: 14:13–16:57
• Trump Tariffs: 16:57–20:25
• USAID Future: 20:25–23:05
• Musk Federal Worker Email: 24:34–26:50
• FBI Leadership: 26:50–30:15
• Trump-Zelensky Meeting: 30:15–32:42
• Columbia/Khalil Case: 32:42–35:46

Overall Tone & Style

The panel’s tone is rigorously self-critical, transparent, and unapologetically independent. Each contributor scrutinizes their prior judgments with a mix of humility and principle, often directly quoting earlier analyses and then quickly pulling back the curtain on what they would change in hindsight. There’s plenty of editorial candor, occasional dark humor, and a determination to model the accountability they see lacking elsewhere in political media.

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