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- [00:00]
Merrill Lynch
We all have dreams. Dream home renovations, dream vacations, or sending our kids to their dream colleges. But finding straightforward ways to turn those dreams into realistic goals? That's where things get tricky. Merrill understands that. That's why with a dedicated mayoral advisor, you get a personalized plan and a clear path forward. And having the bull at your back helps your whole financial life move with you. So when your plans change, Merrill is with you every step of the way. Go to ML.combullish to learn more. Merrill, a Bank of America company what would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith Inc. Registered Broker Dealer Registered Investment Advisor Member.
- [00:43]
Ryan Reynolds
SIPC Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with the price of just about everything going up during inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a.
- [00:55]
Mint Mobile Auctioneer
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- [01:04]
John Sullivan
Sold.
- [01:05]
Ryan Reynolds
Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch $45 upfront.
- [01:09]
Progressive Insurance
Payment equivalent to $15 per month New customers on first three month plan only taxes and fees Extra speed slower above 40 gigabytes detail this episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart Choice make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy.
- [01:43]
Isaac Saul
From Executive producer Isaac Saul this is Tangle.
- [01:58]
Will Kaback
Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast. My name is Will Kaback. I'm one of Tangle's editors, and I'm really excited to share an interview I just conducted with John Sullivan, a fascinating figure in American foreign policy. Somebody whose name you might not know, but who has had a hand in some of the most consequential foreign policy moments of the past decade. He served as the ambassador to Russia under both President Trump and President Biden. He was also deputy Secretary of State under President Trump and temporarily served as acting secretary of State at one point during his first term. We talked about a wide range of issues related to Russia and Ukraine and the West. We talked about his experience being in Moscow when the Ukraine war started. We talked about whether the Biden administration made strategic mistakes that could have prevented Russia's invasion. Foreign policy challenges that President Trump will face in his second term that he didn't face during his first. The rise of sloganeering about Ukraine from both Democrats and Republicans, how that manifests, how that hurts the Ukrainians. What the west doesn't understand about Vladimir Putin that Sullivan learned from his direct experience working with him in Russia and how America can lead us out of this period of global instability both in Ukraine, in the Middle east, elsewhere in the world. It was a great conversation. We Talked for about 45 minutes, touched on a lot of different issues. I think you guys will enjoy this one. So let's jump into my interview with Ambassador John Sullivan. All right, Ambassador Sullivan, thanks so much for joining us.
- [03:40]
John Sullivan
Will, it's great to be with you.
- [03:42]
Merrill Lynch
Thanks.
- [03:43]
Will Kaback
So last week we passed the 1000 day mark in the Ukraine war. And I'm curious if you could just give us your high level 30,000 foot perspective on where the war stands right now and your assessment of where it's headed.
- [03:57]
John Sullivan
Well, one question is a little bit more difficult. Where it's headed, where it stands now is it's not a frozen conflict. The Russian military is still making modest progress in the Donbas capturing territory. I think it's overstated in Western media how much Ukrainian territory has actually been captured by the Russian Federation. I think they would have to even to occupy that portion of Ukraine that they have already claimed as Russian territory as part of the Russian Federation, for example, the rest of the Donetsk Oblast, if they have captured say 6 or 700 square kilometers in the last month or two, they would need to capture 2000 more just to get to that boundary that they already claim as Russian territory. So we're talking about a much different situation from what Ukraine confronted in early in starting on February 24, 2022. And of course, Ukraine has now occupied a small chunk of Russia, the Russian Federation near Kursk. There has been, despite not a lot of territory being gained, there has been a fairly, you know, a fairly significant escalation in the last few weeks. The Biden administration has finally authorized Ukraine to use longer range strike weapons, the so called Himar systems that these are not intercontinental missiles by any stretch of the imagination. It's 190 miles. But they do allow for a longer reach into Russian staging areas where they have staged aerial attacks, drone attacks, missile attacks and marshalling areas for troops in the Russian Federation. In response, the Russian Federation has modified, as it threatened to do in September, its nuclear weapons doctrine. It's also used in the last few days an intermediate range missile, hypersonic missile that did not have a nuclear payload, but they suggest could have a nuclear payload. It struck near Dnipro in the last few days. So there has been escalation beyond the modest progress on the battlefield.
- [06:49]
Will Kaback
I think that's a really helpful state of play. I know another side of this here in the United States is the decision about whether to continue providing aid to Ukraine or the amount of aid that will continue to supply them. When you think about this, especially in terms of the incoming administration, how do you think about the overlap between US And Ukrainian interests? And are there areas where you think maybe those interests diverge that might make a case for U.S. involvement scaling back?
- [07:17]
John Sullivan
Well, ultimately, for any U.S. government official, the ultimate touchstone is the national security interest of the United States and what those interests are. And if it does not serve the national security of the United States, then it's a difficult task to justify supporting a country. And we, the United States, don't just intervene in conflicts around the world, although the Russians accuse us of that. Having said all that, supporting Ukraine is in the, in my opinion, is in the national security interests of the United States. And what I like to say to people, particularly my fellow Republicans, those serving on Capitol Hill as members of Congress, who say things like, I care more about the southwestern border of the United States than I do about the borders of Ukraine. I care more about the United States, my home state, my district, than I do about Ukraine. What I say to them is, you're focused on the wrong side of the battle line there. The question isn't, do we support Ukraine. The question is, do we oppose Russian aggression which is now manifested in this aggressive war against Ukraine? And if you want to write off Ukraine, if you want to say it's not worth it to the United States to continue to support Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression, then I'm curious as to what your policy is with respect to Russia. Because you got to have you may not care about Ukraine, but you got to care if you're a member of Congress or a senator. You gotta care about Russia. And if you say you don't, well, then why have you been, as most Republicans have been, voting for defense and intelligence community budgets year after year, combined classified and unclassified combined military IC almost a trillion dollars to defend the United States. And we're not spending all that money just to defend ourselves from the prc. We need to defend ourselves from the Russian Federation. And I've yet to hear somebody explain how we confront Russian aggression or just at a minimum, articulating a coherent foreign policy with respect to Russia that accounts for the national security of the United States. That also includes abandoning Ukraine. It just doesn't fit. I believe the political sloganeering about Ukraine is a dodge. But the Republicans aren't the only ones who are engaged in sloganeering. The Biden administration saying we support Ukraine for as long as it takes. That's a slogan too. Why, why is it in the national security interests of the United States? Why should I, as a member of Congress vote to spend 61 million, $61 billion to support Ukraine? It's sloganeering on both sides because people don't want to talk about the serious security interests that are implicated by this aggressive war.
- [10:43]
Will Kaback
So would you say that maybe the Biden administration stance is maybe the side that you would agree with, but they're not articulating the reason well enough to the American people.
- [10:54]
John Sullivan
They're not articulating the reason, in my opinion, at all to the American people. Think about this. I cast my first vote in a presidential election in 1980 for Ronald Reagan. 44 years ago, Reagan and Carter were engaged in a serious debate about US national security, defense budgets, et cetera. Back then, the American President, then the principal Republican candidate and then the Republican nominee for president, talked about complex security issues. The threats posed by the Soviet Union, increasing defense budgets, the Strategic Defense Initiative, which was this missile defense system nicknamed Star wars, increasing adding a new, as the Reagan administration considered a new mobile intercontinental ballistic land based missile, the MX missile intermediate range nuclear missiles in Europe and in West Germany. The president, presidents talked to the American people about those issues all the time. Everybody knew what Reagan thought of the Soviet Union and he'd been saying this for decades. He campaigned for Barry Goldwater in 64, 17 years before he became president. So we didn't have candidates or presidents or senators for that matter, who were afraid to confront hard national security issues. And I'm afraid to say that's what we confront. And I say this, I say this not as a warmonger, not as somebody who's looking for conflict. I say this as someone who served in Moscow as the ambassador of both President Trump and President Biden. The Russians, led by Putin. The Putin government considers the United States its enemy. Their word, not mine. They already say they're in a hybrid war with us. So we are not confronting that. And we're engaged in political sloganeering and doing a disservice, in my opinion, to the American people.
- [13:20]
John Law
We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [13:25]
Ryan Reynolds
Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. With the price of just about everything going up during inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing.
- [13:37]
Mint Mobile Auctioneer
Mint Mobile unlimited premium wireless. 30, 30 bid to get 30, get 20, 20, 20. But to get 20, 20. But you get 15, 15, 15, 15. Just 15 bucks a month.
- [13:45]
John Sullivan
Sold.
- [13:46]
Ryan Reynolds
Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch $45 upfront.
- [13:50]
Progressive Insurance
Payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only. Taxes and fees, extra speed slower above 40 gigabytes of detail.
- [13:56]
Isaac Saul
What makes a great pair of glasses At Warby Parker, it's all the invisible extras without the extra cost. Their designer quality frames start at $95 including prescription lenses plus scratch resistant, smudge resistant and anti reflective coatings and UV protection and free adjustments for life. To find your next pair of glasses, sunglasses or contact lenses, or to find the Warby Parker store nearest you, head over to warbyparker.com that's warbyparker.com.
- [14:33]
Will Kaback
Yeah, I have one more question here and then I actually want to pivot to talking about your book and the experience that you had in Moscow. But I appreciated how you talked about the sloganeering as it happens on both sides. Right. And I think on the Republican side, a lot of the representatives who are engaging in this, I would say are more aligned with President Trump and maybe the MAGA movement. Now, on the other side of that, I think something President Trump talked about a lot on the campaign trail was how Putin didn't invade when he was president and how these issues came up when Biden was in office. But do you think that President Trump will support Ukraine based on the statements that he's made and make the case to the American people in the way that you think he should, or do you think that the party, as he's the leader of it, is going to be pulled more towards that isolationist impulse?
- [15:25]
John Sullivan
I'd say it's too soon to tell. And I'd cite, for example, his pick to be Secretary of state. Senator Rubio, I remember back in 2017 when I was on the verge of becoming the Deputy Secretary of state, my boss, the secretary of state nominee, Rex Tillerson, almost had his confirmation hearing basically hijacked by a Republican senator, Senator Rubio, who demanded that Tillerson answer the following question in the affirmative. Is Vladimir Putin a war criminal? People forget that. I mean, his views, Senator Rubio's views on Russia have been consistent with mine and I think not favorable to the Kremlin. I know that the person that the president has selected to be his national security adviser, Congressman Mike Waltz, similarly has had a pretty hard view on Russia and what this aggressive war that Putin has started means for the United States. So, yeah, the president has said things I believe President Zelensky has characterized them as political rhetoric during a campaign. He's hopeful that Trump's peace through strength mantra will result in support for Ukraine. We'll have to see. But there is definitely a strain, Will there's no doubt about it, I think reflected by Senator Vance, the vice president elect, who believes that the United States should limit its support for Ukraine, limit its engagement in this conflict in Europe, and focus more of its attention to the extent we can, on the Pacific and the prc. And that's a mistake, because there isn't an a la carte menu of foreign conflicts. And what we've seen is an increasing interconnection of the conflict in Russia, Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle east, in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Yemen, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and security threats in the Pacific, in the western Pacific. And the Russia, Ukraine war has become a global conflict. We now have North Korean soldiers fighting with Russian soldiers on the European continent.
- [18:01]
Will Kaback
I have a few more questions, I think, about how maybe the Biden administration, the Trump administration have and might handle this issue differently. But I do want to talk about your book, Midnight in Moscow. Something that jumped out to me when I was reading it was that you wrote about how you saw the signs of the imminent Russian invasion for weeks in advance, well before it was being reported in the national press, before many people were talking about this as something that was about to happen. So based on your experience on the ground at that time and the conversations you were having, the intel you were receiving, what, what led you to that conclusion and what was that time like generally for you, as somebody who is right there in Russia at the moment?
- [18:42]
John Sullivan
So there were a couple of things that converged to make my, my views pretty firm about what was what was going to happen. The first was the intelligence that we were receiving, which, by the way, was outstanding. It was a real, it was a great moment for intelligence professionals, the way they prepared the administration for what was going to happen and what we knew about what the Russians were doing. So that's one second in engaging with the Russians, they weren't engaged, as I describe in my book, they weren't seriously engaged in negotiations with the United States. They were going through the motions of what I call sham diplomacy, and I cite a number of examples. They would read from talking points. They wouldn't engage when I would raise issues with them. Speak to them, as I'm speaking for you now, Will, and they would just read their talking points what they were authorized to say. And what they were authorized to say was Ukraine needed to be now, they say, denazified and demilitarized, which means the government in Kyiv removed, the Ukraine military reduced dramatically in size and that Ukraine's got to remain neutral. Third, and this is now looking back, as I do now, and it didn't necessarily contribute to my thinking in December and January. So those first two items were really what convinced me at that time period. But now looking back, I am more convinced than ever that there was no way Putin was never going to be deterred in the summer or fall of 21 or early 2022 for the following reasons, and I write about this in my book. Biden and Putin met in June, June 16, as I recall, of 2021 in Geneva. And what did they not what did they talk about? They talked about a lot of things, but they didn't talk about Ukraine. There were fleeting references to Ukraine and the Minsk agreements, but there wasn't. They spent more time talking about Afghanistan and what was at that point, the start of the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan. They spent more time talking about Afghanistan, the Arctic, other issues than they did about Ukraine. Yet by the end of November, just a few months later, Putin was saying that Ukraine and the threat to Russia that Ukraine posed with support from the United States, with NATO, with Ukraine seeking NATO membership, that, that was an existential, their word, not mine, existential threat to the Russian Federation. What changed between June and November? Putin's plans were becoming firmer. And he wanted. He wanted to give the impression of engaging in diplomacy with the west to appear reasonable and to create a moral equivalence between Russia and Ukraine, Russia and NATO, NATO expansion threats to Russia. We're just responding as any nation would when its security was threatened. And it was all fake. It was sham, sham diplomacy. It was all propaganda and disinformation.
- [22:23]
John Law
We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [22:29]
Merrill Lynch
We all have dreams. Dream home renovations, dream vacations, or sending our kids to their dream colleges. But finding straightforward ways to turn those dreams into realistic goals, that's where things get tricky. Mayrill understands that. That's why with a dedicated Mayrill advisor, you get a personalized plan and a clear path forward. And having the bull at your back help helps your whole financial life move with you. So when your plans change, Merrill is with you every step of the way. Go to ML.combullish to learn more. Merrill, a Bank of America company. What would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith Inc. Registered broker dealer Registered investment advisor Member sipc.
- [23:13]
Isaac Saul
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- [23:51]
Will Kaback
Do you think that the Biden administration made strategic errors during that period?
- [23:57]
John Sullivan
You know, people often ask me, for example, did the withdrawal in Afghanistan, did that cause Putin to invade Ukraine? And my response to that, I feel very strongly, no. In my opinion, Putin had decided long before, for example, a terrorist attack at Abigail on August 26 or even the collapse of the Afghan government, the Ghani government in Kabul in July. But it does play a role, though it doesn't precipitate the invasion. But it was confirmation of the assessment Putin had already made, which was the west wasn't capable of standing up to a resolute Russia that had the means and the will to subjugate Ukraine. So to the extent that we in the west were trying to deter Putin, Afghanistan made him in effect, undeterrable. He just wasn't going to be talked out of it or had press replied to him because he didn't think, for example, that we would supply weapons the way we did to Ukraine. I think he was surprised by the West's response. And finally, again, citing their own statements, Russian statements in late August referring to Afghanistan, Nikolai Patraschev, who was the secretary of the Russian Security Council, former FSB director very close to Putin. He gives an interview to Russian state media on, I think it was August 19, a week before the terrorist attack at Abby Gate, and says, and this is in Russian addressed to the Russian people. It beyond me why my Slavic sisters and brothers in Kiev want to join NATO and want to rely on the United States and NATO. Look what they're doing to their major non NATO ally in Kabul. They do it to their afghan allies after 20 years of war. Why do you think they'd do anything to ultimately support you? They'll leave you twisting in the wind. So it wasn't a precipitating event, but it did contribute to. It made Putin, as I say, I think, undeterrable.
- [26:27]
Will Kaback
It's interesting to hear you outline the bet that Putin made, right, that the west would not be able to stand up to a resolute Russia and comparing that to your assessment of the war. Now do you think that that bet has played out or do you think that Putin himself might have miscalculated in what the west response would be?
- [26:47]
John Sullivan
Well, Putin has already admitted that he miscalculated. So the then Israeli Prime Minister Natalie Bennett visits Moscow was in March or April, I can't Remember now of 2022. So a month or two after the special military operation has started and but also after, you know the the attack on Kiev had been thwarted, the Russian military is starting is meeting resistance around Kharkiv and so forth and Putin says to Bennett this isn't a one on one meeting. And Bennett then later talks to the press. Putin admits to him a few things first that the UK Ukrainians had greater role.
- [27:35]
Marc Maron
Hey everybody, this is John, executive producer of YouTube and podcast content and co host of the daily podcast. I hope you enjoyed this exclusive preview episode. We are now offering this podcast exclusively to our premium podcast members along with our ad, free daily podcasts, Friday edition, in depth interviews, upcoming new podcast series, bonus content, and much more. If you want to receive all that and give your support to help us grow Tangle Media, please head over to tanglemedia.supercast.com and sign up for a membership. If it's not the right time for you to sign up, please don't worry. Our ad supported daily podcast isn't going anywhere, but if it is in your ability to support by signing up for membership, we would greatly appreciate it and we're really excited to share all of our premium offerings with you. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day y'all. Peace.
- [28:39]
John Law
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our Managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will Kack, Bailey Saul and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Boa, who is also our Social Media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75 and if you're looking for more from Tangle, Please go to readtangle.com and check out our website.
- [29:18]
Ari Weitzman
Hey, it's Marc Marin from WTF here to let you know that this podcast is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. And I'm sure the reason you're listening to this podcast right now is because you chose it well. Choose Progressive's Name your price tool and you could find insurance options that fit your budget so you can pick the best one for your situation. Who doesn't like choice? Try it@progressive.com and now some legal info. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates Price and coverage match Limited by state law not available in all states.
- [29:52]
Isaac Saul
What makes a great pair of glasses? At Warby Parker, it's all the invisible extras without the extra cost. Their designer quality frames start at $95 including prescription lenses plus scratch resistant, smudge resistant and anti reflective coatings and UV protection and free adjustments for life. To find your next pair of glasses, sunglasses or contact lenses, or to find the Warby Parker store nearest you, head over to warbyparker.com that's warbyparker.com we all have dreams.
- [30:23]
Merrill Lynch
Dream home renovations, dream vacations, sending our kids to their dream colleges. But finding straightforward ways to turn those dreams into realistic goals? That's where things get tricky. Mayl understands that. That's why with a dedicated Mayril advisor, you get a personalized plan and a clear path forward. And having the bull at your back helps your whole financial life move with you. So when your plans change, Merrill is with you every step of the way. Go to ML.combullish to learn more. Merrill, a Bank of America company what would you like the power to do Investing involves risk Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith Inc. Registered Broker Dealer Registered Investment Advisor Member S.