Podcast Summary: Tangle Episode Preview featuring Ambassador John Sullivan

Release Date: December 11, 2024
Host: Will Kaback
Guest: Ambassador John Sullivan
Duration: Approximately 30 minutes

Introduction

In the latest preview episode of Tangle, host Will Kaback introduces an upcoming in-depth interview with Ambassador John Sullivan, a pivotal figure in American foreign policy. Sullivan has served as the U.S. Ambassador to Russia under both President Trump and President Biden, and also held the position of Deputy Secretary of State during Trump's administration. This episode sets the stage for the comprehensive discussion to be released in full on December 11, 2024.

Ambassador John Sullivan: A Brief Background

Will Kaback begins by highlighting Sullivan’s extensive experience, noting his involvement in several significant foreign policy decisions over the past decade. Sullivan's unique perspective stems from his firsthand experience in Moscow during critical moments, including the onset of the Ukraine war.

Will Kaback [00:57]: "We talked about his experience being in Moscow when the Ukraine war started... It was a great conversation."

Current Status of the Russia-Ukraine War

Sullivan provides a 30,000-foot view of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, emphasizing that the war remains active and beyond a frozen conflict. He disputes Western media narratives that may exaggerate Russian territorial gains in Ukraine.

John Sullivan [03:57]: "Where it's headed, where it stands now is it's not a frozen conflict. The Russian military is still making modest progress in the Donbas capturing territory."

Sullivan clarifies that while Russia has made some territorial advances, the actual areas under their control are understated. He also mentions recent escalations, including the Biden administration's authorization for Ukraine to use longer-range strike weapons and Russia's subsequent modifications to its nuclear doctrine.

John Sullivan [05:40]: "The Russian Federation has modified its nuclear weapons doctrine... suggesting it could have a nuclear payload."

U.S. Aid to Ukraine: Alignment with National Security Interests

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the United States' continued support for Ukraine. Sullivan asserts that assisting Ukraine aligns with U.S. national security interests, countering arguments from some policymakers who prioritize domestic issues over international conflicts.

John Sullivan [07:17]: "Supporting Ukraine is in the national security interests of the United States."

He challenges members of Congress who question the relevance of supporting Ukraine by linking it to the broader need to oppose Russian aggression. Sullivan criticizes both Republicans and Democrats for their political sloganeering on this issue, arguing that it obscures the serious security implications of the war.

John Sullivan [09:30]: "I believe the political sloganeering about Ukraine is a dodge. But the Republicans aren't the only ones who are engaged in sloganeering."

Political Sloganeering and Its Impact

Sullivan delves into how both political parties utilize slogans like “support Ukraine for as long as it takes” without adequately explaining the underlying national security reasons. He reminisces about the candid and strategic dialogues of past administrations, contrasting them with the current climate of superficial rhetoric.

John Sullivan [10:54]: "They're not articulating the reason, in my opinion, at all to the American people."

Future U.S. Policy under President Trump’s Second Term

The conversation shifts to potential foreign policy directions under President Trump's anticipated second term. Sullivan expresses uncertainty but points to Senator Rubio and Congressman Mike Waltz as indicators of a continued hard stance on Russia within the Republican Party.

John Sullivan [15:24]: "The president has said things I believe President Zelensky has characterized them as political rhetoric during a campaign."

However, he also warns against any isolationist impulses that might arise, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global conflicts and the need for a comprehensive foreign policy.

John Sullivan [17:10]: "There isn't an a la carte menu of foreign conflicts. The Russia-Ukraine war has become a global conflict."

Insights from "Midnight in Moscow"

Ambassador Sullivan references his book, "Midnight in Moscow," to shed light on the signals and intelligence that indicated the impending Russian invasion of Ukraine. He recounts how the outstanding intelligence efforts and Russia's lack of genuine diplomatic engagement were red flags that the invasion was imminent.

John Sullivan [18:41]: "The intelligence that we were receiving... was outstanding... Sham diplomacy... propaganda and disinformation."

Sullivan also reflects on the failed diplomatic conversations between Biden and Putin in June 2021, where Ukraine was conspicuously absent from the agenda, hinting at the lack of serious intent to prevent the invasion.

John Sullivan [21:15]: "Biden and Putin... didn't talk about Ukraine... They were through the motions of sham diplomacy."

Assessing Strategic Errors in U.S. Policy

When questioned about potential strategic errors by the Biden administration, Sullivan maintains that actions like the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan did not directly cause the invasion but did affirm Putin's resolve.

John Sullivan [23:57]: "Putin had decided long before... Afghanistan made him in effect, undeterrable."

He criticizes the Biden administration for not sufficiently hindering Russia's aggressiveness, suggesting that while the West aimed to deter, it ultimately failed to negotiate effectively with a determined Russia.

John Sullivan [26:47]: "Putin has already admitted that he miscalculated."

Conclusion

Ambassador John Sullivan offers a nuanced and critical perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war and the United States' role in it. He underscores the necessity of strategic, well-articulated foreign policies that align with national security interests, rather than succumbing to political rhetoric. The preview episode sets the stage for a deeper exploration of these themes in the full interview, promising listeners valuable insights into one of the most pressing geopolitical issues of our time.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• John Sullivan [07:17]: "Supporting Ukraine is in the national security interests of the United States."
• John Sullivan [10:54]: "They're not articulating the reason, in my opinion, at all to the American people."
• John Sullivan [18:41]: "The intelligence that we were receiving... was outstanding... Sham diplomacy... propaganda and disinformation."
• John Sullivan [23:57]: "Putin had decided long before... Afghanistan made him in effect, undeterrable."

This episode serves as an essential preview for listeners interested in understanding the intricate dynamics of U.S. foreign policy, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the strategic calculations of key policymakers like Ambassador John Sullivan.