Tangle Podcast Episode Summary

Episode: PREVIEW: Will Kbach talks with John Ketcham
Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Will Kbach (Senior Editor, Tangle)
Guest: John Ketcham (Legal Policy Fellow & Director of Cities, Manhattan Institute)
Main Theme:
An in-depth discussion focusing on New York City’s closed primary election system, the growing movement for primary reform, and how these issues shape both local and national politics—using the 2025 NYC mayoral race as a lens.

Episode Overview

Will Kbach interviews John Ketcham to dissect the mechanics, challenges, and consequences of New York City’s electoral system, stressing the outsized influence of closed primaries and entrenched interests. The conversation explores the significant disconnect between public opinion on electoral reform and actual policy movement, the role of unions and special interests in shaping election outcomes, and the implications for the city’s political future and American democracy more broadly.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The New York City Mayoral Election Landscape

• [01:56] Will Kbach sets the stage: the 2025 NYC mayoral election features Democrat Zoran Mamdani (who ousted Andrew Cuomo in the primary), Cuomo running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa as a potential spoiler.
• The race spotlights bigger debates about the Democratic Party’s direction and primary system reforms.

2. Closed Primary System Mechanics & Consequences

• [04:55] John Ketcham explains:
  • Only party-registered voters can participate in primaries—practically, this means only the Democratic primary matters in NYC ("about six Democrats for every Republican").
  • Over 1.1 million unaffiliated voters are locked out of every primary.
  • Tight regulations: Party registration deadline is 132 days before the primary (most restrictive in the country).
  • Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) was introduced in 2019 but did not address underlying exclusionary structures.
• Quote [05:10]:

  "So there are about six Democrats for every Republican in New York City, which basically means that in most elections, the only one that matters is the Democratic Party primary."
  — John Ketcham

3. Public Opinion vs. Actual Reform

• [07:18] Discussion of recent polling:
  • Rising support for open or nonpartisan primaries; falling support for closed primaries.
  • But NYC’s Charter Revision Commission recently rejected an open primary proposal, highlighting a gap between public preference and political change.
• Quote [08:36]:

  "There is a broad appetite for electoral reform in New York City. Now, why aren't we getting it? Well, it has to do in large part with the powers that be that are already benefiting from the current system, the entrenched interests."
  — John Ketcham

4. Entrenched Interests (Especially Unions) & Status Quo

• [08:55] Ketcham details how groups like the Hotel Gaming and Trades Council leverage the electoral system to protect their power, affecting everything from hotel construction to Airbnb restrictions.
  • The system is engineered to make it hard for outsiders to compete, both economically and politically.
• Quote [09:55]:

  "It's all a way of eliminating competition and protecting their share of the economic pie at the expense of growth. And that's what I'm most worried about."
  — John Ketcham

5. Low Turnout & Favorable Conditions for Special Interests

• [13:25] Discussion about the impact of odd-year elections and closed primaries on turnout:
  • NYC sees turnout "between 23 to 26%," reaching only 32% in a recent primary—but that’s 32% of registered Democrats, not the entire electorate.
  • Low participation lets "special interests like unions… influence elections with relatively little resources."
• Quote [14:39]:

  "They simply need to sway fewer people to vote for the candidates that they like in a lower turnout race. And that is one of the major dynamics that helps entrench these interest groups so firmly in New York's political economy."
  — John Ketcham

6. Why Reform is Difficult Even with Public Support

• [15:00] Kbach raises the gap between abstract polling support and actual voter behavior on concrete reforms—supported by ballot failures in other states.
  • Entrenched interests mobilize quickly when threatened, and reform movements are difficult to sustain.
• Quote [16:37]:

  "Entrenched interests persist. They're always there. And reformers, they come and they go. ... So getting a reform passed is one thing. Keeping it durable is a totally different matter."
  — John Ketcham

7. Concrete Next Steps & Recent Setbacks for Reformers

• [19:51] Ketcham expresses disappointment that the Charter Revision Commission backed out of putting nonpartisan primary reform on the ballot—due in part to "far left interest groups" fearing it would block future leftist victories.
  • Says Mamdani's primary win was a "historic victory," but low turnout (just "11% of the total registered voting base") weakens the claim to a public mandate.
• Quote [21:08]:

  "11% of your total registered voters does not necessarily indicate a mandate for socialism. ... We will see how this plays out in the general election, which is indeed open to all voters. But of course that is not a ranked choice election and therefore is susceptible to spoiler effects."
  — John Ketcham

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On exclusionary rules:
  "There are over 1.1 million voters who are registered but unaffiliated with any political party. They cannot vote in any primary ever." – John Ketcham [05:30]

• On unions and influence:
  "They have essentially co opted, in large part the City Council and other elected leaders to do their bidding for them." – John Ketcham [09:23]

• On low turnout advantage:
  "Off-cycle, local elections have half to a third of the turnout that even year elections have." – John Ketcham [13:35]

• On the durability of reforms:
  "Getting a reform passed is one thing. Keeping it durable is a totally different matter." – John Ketcham [16:40]

• On the defeat of reform:
  "The reason we did not ultimately get that on the ballot was... because the far left interest groups in New York City mobilized after Zoran Mamdani's primary win and they politicized the proposal as something that would prevent Mamdani's style victory from happening again in the future." – John Ketcham [20:15]

Timestamps of Key Segments

• [01:56] – Will Kbach introduces the episode’s theme and the stakes of the NYC mayoral election.
• [04:55] – John Ketcham explains closed primary system and its consequences.
• [07:18] – Will asks about polling and disconnect between public support and policy.
• [08:55] – John discusses unions’ and other interests’ powerful influence.
• [13:25] – Will asks how off-year elections, low turnout aid interest groups.
• [15:00] – Discussion of national reform efforts and why they often fail.
• [19:51] – John outlines the latest reform efforts and their political obstacles.
• [21:08] – John on actual mandates resulting from low-turnout wins.

Tone & Language

The episode maintains a balanced, analytical tone. While passionate about the need for reform, both Kbach and Ketcham strive for objectivity, backing opinions with data and historical context.

Summary Takeaways

• New York City's unique electoral system creates significant barriers to broader participation and reform.
• Entrenched interests—particularly unions—exploit low-turnout elections and closed primaries to maintain influence.
• Public polling shows desire for reform, but change is stymied by both the complexity of ballot initiatives and resistance from established stakeholders.
• Recent events (like Mamdani’s win and the failed Charter initiative) make clear both the challenges and importance of structural reform—not just for local democracy, but for U.S. politics more broadly.

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