PREVIEW: Will Kaback talks with John Ketcham

Summary

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Tangle Podcast Episode Summary

Episode: PREVIEW: Will Kbach talks with John Ketcham
Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Will Kbach (Senior Editor, Tangle)
Guest: John Ketcham (Legal Policy Fellow & Director of Cities, Manhattan Institute)
Main Theme:
An in-depth discussion focusing on New York City’s closed primary election system, the growing movement for primary reform, and how these issues shape both local and national politics—using the 2025 NYC mayoral race as a lens.

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Episode Overview

Will Kbach interviews John Ketcham to dissect the mechanics, challenges, and consequences of New York City’s electoral system, stressing the outsized influence of closed primaries and entrenched interests. The conversation explores the significant disconnect between public opinion on electoral reform and actual policy movement, the role of unions and special interests in shaping election outcomes, and the implications for the city’s political future and American democracy more broadly.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The New York City Mayoral Election Landscape

• [01:56] Will Kbach sets the stage: the 2025 NYC mayoral election features Democrat Zoran Mamdani (who ousted Andrew Cuomo in the primary), Cuomo running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa as a potential spoiler.
• The race spotlights bigger debates about the Democratic Party’s direction and primary system reforms.

2. Closed Primary System Mechanics & Consequences

• [04:55] John Ketcham explains:
  • Only party-registered voters can participate in primaries—practically, this means only the Democratic primary matters in NYC ("about six Democrats for every Republican").
  • Over 1.1 million unaffiliated voters are locked out of every primary.
  • Tight regulations: Party registration deadline is 132 days before the primary (most restrictive in the country).
  • Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) was introduced in 2019 but did not address underlying exclusionary structures.
• Quote [05:10]:

  "So there are about six Democrats for every Republican in New York City, which basically means that in most elections, the only one that matters is the Democratic Party primary."
  — John Ketcham

3. Public Opinion vs. Actual Reform

• [07:18] Discussion of recent polling:
  • Rising support for open or nonpartisan primaries; falling support for closed primaries.
  • But NYC’s Charter Revision Commission recently rejected an open primary proposal, highlighting a gap between public preference and political change.
• Quote [08:36]:

  "There is a broad appetite for electoral reform in New York City. Now, why aren't we getting it? Well, it has to do in large part with the powers that be that are already benefiting from the current system, the entrenched interests."
  — John Ketcham

4. Entrenched Interests (Especially Unions) & Status Quo

• [08:55] Ketcham details how groups like the Hotel Gaming and Trades Council leverage the electoral system to protect their power, affecting everything from hotel construction to Airbnb restrictions.
  • The system is engineered to make it hard for outsiders to compete, both economically and politically.
• Quote [09:55]:

  "It's all a way of eliminating competition and protecting their share of the economic pie at the expense of growth. And that's what I'm most worried about."
  — John Ketcham

5. Low Turnout & Favorable Conditions for Special Interests

• [13:25] Discussion about the impact of odd-year elections and closed primaries on turnout:
  • NYC sees turnout "between 23 to 26%," reaching only 32% in a recent primary—but that’s 32% of registered Democrats, not the entire electorate.
  • Low participation lets "special interests like unions… influence elections with relatively little resources."
• Quote [14:39]:

  "They simply need to sway fewer people to vote for the candidates that they like in a lower turnout race. And that is one of the major dynamics that helps entrench these interest groups so firmly in New York's political economy."
  — John Ketcham

6. Why Reform is Difficult Even with Public Support

• [15:00] Kbach raises the gap between abstract polling support and actual voter behavior on concrete reforms—supported by ballot failures in other states.
  • Entrenched interests mobilize quickly when threatened, and reform movements are difficult to sustain.
• Quote [16:37]:

  "Entrenched interests persist. They're always there. And reformers, they come and they go. ... So getting a reform passed is one thing. Keeping it durable is a totally different matter."
  — John Ketcham

7. Concrete Next Steps & Recent Setbacks for Reformers

• [19:51] Ketcham expresses disappointment that the Charter Revision Commission backed out of putting nonpartisan primary reform on the ballot—due in part to "far left interest groups" fearing it would block future leftist victories.
  • Says Mamdani's primary win was a "historic victory," but low turnout (just "11% of the total registered voting base") weakens the claim to a public mandate.
• Quote [21:08]:

  "11% of your total registered voters does not necessarily indicate a mandate for socialism. ... We will see how this plays out in the general election, which is indeed open to all voters. But of course that is not a ranked choice election and therefore is susceptible to spoiler effects."
  — John Ketcham

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On exclusionary rules:
  "There are over 1.1 million voters who are registered but unaffiliated with any political party. They cannot vote in any primary ever." – John Ketcham [05:30]

• On unions and influence:
  "They have essentially co opted, in large part the City Council and other elected leaders to do their bidding for them." – John Ketcham [09:23]

• On low turnout advantage:
  "Off-cycle, local elections have half to a third of the turnout that even year elections have." – John Ketcham [13:35]

• On the durability of reforms:
  "Getting a reform passed is one thing. Keeping it durable is a totally different matter." – John Ketcham [16:40]

• On the defeat of reform:
  "The reason we did not ultimately get that on the ballot was... because the far left interest groups in New York City mobilized after Zoran Mamdani's primary win and they politicized the proposal as something that would prevent Mamdani's style victory from happening again in the future." – John Ketcham [20:15]

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• [01:56] – Will Kbach introduces the episode’s theme and the stakes of the NYC mayoral election.
• [04:55] – John Ketcham explains closed primary system and its consequences.
• [07:18] – Will asks about polling and disconnect between public support and policy.
• [08:55] – John discusses unions’ and other interests’ powerful influence.
• [13:25] – Will asks how off-year elections, low turnout aid interest groups.
• [15:00] – Discussion of national reform efforts and why they often fail.
• [19:51] – John outlines the latest reform efforts and their political obstacles.
• [21:08] – John on actual mandates resulting from low-turnout wins.

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Tone & Language

The episode maintains a balanced, analytical tone. While passionate about the need for reform, both Kbach and Ketcham strive for objectivity, backing opinions with data and historical context.

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Summary Takeaways

• New York City's unique electoral system creates significant barriers to broader participation and reform.
• Entrenched interests—particularly unions—exploit low-turnout elections and closed primaries to maintain influence.
• Public polling shows desire for reform, but change is stymied by both the complexity of ballot initiatives and resistance from established stakeholders.
• Recent events (like Mamdani’s win and the failed Charter initiative) make clear both the challenges and importance of structural reform—not just for local democracy, but for U.S. politics more broadly.

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Transcript

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From executive producer Isaac Saul. This is Tangle.

[Will Kbach]

Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of our take. My name is Will Kbach, I'm Tangle's Senior editor and today we're coming to you with a special interview on election day 2025, there are a few notable races taking place across the country, but perhaps none is more notable than New York City's mayoral election, which is pitting Democr Zoran Mamdani against Andrew Cuomo, who Mamdani defeated in the Democratic primary. Cuomo is now running as an independent and Curtis Sliwa potentially acting as a spoiler on the Republican side. It's a race that has inspired quite a bit of national conversation about the direction of the Democratic Party should Mamdani win, which he is expected to, as well as how the outcome of the Race could have ripple effects in our broader politics. However, one aspect of this election that isn't being discussed as much is actually how these candidates came to be on the general election ballot. And that conversation has to do with primary reform and the election systems that New York City uses in its elections. So in advance of the election, I spoke with John Ketchum, who is a legal policy fellow and director of Cities at the Manhattan Institute. His areas of expertise include housing, local elections infrastructure, parental rights, and more. But we spoke specifically about this year's election and election reform. The conversation explores the complexities of this issue in New York City specifically, but also nationwide. We talk about some of the challenges that are posed by a closed primary system, the entrenched political interests that are fighting on either side of this debate, and the disconnect that exists between the public support for reform and the actual political action that seen. So, again, this is a topic that's focused on New York City, but really has ramifications for the country as a whole, particularly as it relates to the primary reform movement in the United States. So today on Election Day, we thought it would be the perfect opportunity to release this conversation and let you hear what Ketchum has to say about how he thinks the city, the state, and the country writ large should move forward. So without further ado, here's my interview with the Manhattan Institute's John Ketchum. So to start, I just kind of alluded to the state of play of primary reform in the United States. I know you focus on New York City. I'd be interested to hear your impression of where things stand on primary reform in the city, specifically on the issues that you're focused on. I've read some of your recent analysis of polling data from the Democratic primary that that happened in June. But more broadly, what do you focus on and what's the latest on them?

[John Ketchum]

Sure. Well, thanks for having me, Will. Really great to be with you. Let me set the stage. New York City has a closed primary system, which means that only those who are registered with a political party can vote in that party's primary. So there are about six Democrats for every Republican in New York City, which basically means that in most elections, the only one that matters is the Democratic Party primary. The winner of that election goes on to an easy November general election. And so that system produces some consequences. There are over 1.1 million voters who are registered but unaffiliated with any political party. They cannot vote in any primary ever. Then there are also those who are registered with smaller parties, like the Working Families Party or the Conservative Party that also don't vote in primaries because their party doesn't hold one. This year we didn't even have a party primary for the Republicans. They simply nominated Curtis Slieva. So New York City is also uniquely restrictive in the way that it treats party registration before primaries. So the deadline to change your party to participate in the most recent June election was February 14th. That's 132 days before the primary and by far the longest. So just for context, Florida has a 29 day party change limit and Pennsylvania has a 15 day limit. So this was the environment in which ranked choice voting was adopted back in 2019 for local elections and for special elections. But it was integrated into this bigger electoral structure that still includes the closed primaries and off year or odd year elections. And RCV simply couldn't address those challenges and the problems that those systems cause. And we can go into that. But in sum, I don't think that electoral reform has bright prospects. In terms of primary reform in New York City. We can describe some of the interest group dynamics that make it so.

[Will Kbach]

Yeah, I'd be interested to do that. I'd also be interested to hear. One of the things I read before our conversation was your analysis on polling data on electoral reforms among New Yorkers. And you showed just from 2024 to this year, there's been kind of a notable increase in support for an open primary or a nonpartisan primary as preferable to the current system. But at the same time, the Charter Revision Commission rejected a proposal along those lines. So it does seem like there is a bit of a disconnect between public support for this and what's actually happening. So can you speak to why that might be and maybe that'll dovetail with what you're just alluding to?

[John Ketchum]

Sure. Well, Manhattan Institute, my employer, has done some polling on New Yorkers and their appetite for electoral reform. And it turns out that they do want to change the local electoral structure. So, for example, 23% of Democrats reported in the January 25 poll that we conducted that they're registered as Democrats only to participate in the Democratic primary because they want their vote to count for something. They know that it's the most important election in town. About 40% of New Yorkers believe it's not worth voting in general elections because the winner of the Democratic Party primary typically goes on to an easy victory in November. And when asked what they prefer between a nonpartisan or all candidate primary, top two primary, and an open primary versus a closed primary, 37% favor the nonpartisan primary, the most open variety. 30% wanted an open primary, and 19% wanted to retain the current closed system. So there is a broad appetite for electoral reform in New York City. Now, why aren't we getting it? Well, it has to do in large part with the powers that be that are already benefiting from the current system, the entrenched interests. Now, this holds true nationally as well. Those who benefit from a system are hesitant to change that system, of course. And so incumbent politicians are always looking to maximize their electoral advantage and they see some changes as a potential threat. But there's also a more subtle dynamic in New York City because we have very powerful interest groups, interest groups, including unions. And those unions and other groups know how to manipulate the system in ways that perpetuate their grip on political power in the city. And political. I can give you an example. Maybe you or your viewers have tried to book a hotel in New York City recently, and you probably notice it's really expensive. Well, it is, yeah. It's basically impossible to build new hotels in New York City. And it just so happens that the city has an enormously powerful hotel workers union called the Hotel Gaming and Trades Council, or the htc. And this group has been wildly successful in eliminating competition over the last decade. They've done so by being very prominent political supporters of Bill de Blasio and then of Mayor Adams. And they have essentially co opted, in large part the City Council and other elected leaders to do their bidding for them. So in order to build a new hotel, you need to have a special permit that the City Council has to grant. And of course, in order to get this special permit, you need to promise as a developer and then as an operator to use union labor. They've also been very successful in severely restricting Airbnb in New York City, which is another source of competition for the hotels in which their union workers operate. So it's all a way of eliminating competition and protecting their share of the economic pie at the expense of growth. And that's what I'm most worried about. It's the potential to stymie growth in service of a more fixed sum, zero sum kind of alternative that can imperil the city's vibrancy and dynamism. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break.

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[John Ketchum]

Can't I just let it go? I wish I would stop. Thank you so much.

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[Will Kbach]

So it's the idea that groups like these unions, they understand how the electoral system works under the status quo, and they understand how to use their leverage to maximize the chances that they'll have a candidate favorable to them.

[John Ketchum]

Absolutely. So to give an example, New York City has odd year elections, right? We're having a mayoral election right now, and that has been shown across the board to depress voter turnout. So off year or off cycle, local elections have half to a third of the turnout that even year elections have. And in New York City, this certainly holds true. So we typically range between 23 to 26% or so in terms of turnout for primary and general election. The most recent primary did see a significant bump to 32%, but that was lauded as a major improvement. It was still 32% of only registered Democrats, I should say not of the total denominator of registered voters because of our closed primary. So what does that mean? It means that special interests like unions can influence elections with relatively little resources and with fewer members than they would if they had to compete in a broad, broader universe of all registered voters. They simply need to sway fewer people to vote for the candidates that they like in a lower turnout race. And that is one of the major dynamics that helps entrench these interest groups so firmly in New York's political economy.

[Will Kbach]

I want to stay on this point about the public polling data for a little bit longer, something that I think about. At Tangle, we write about national politics. We covered national political issues. Something that we found interesting is that there are several issues where when they're pulled, generally there does appear to be a very strong consensus about one side or the other. Things like gun control, you'll see close to super majorities on very broadly phrased questions about the need for some kind of a background check, something in that vein. But then when actual proposals are put, say in a ballot initiative or proposed by legislation, you actually see the support come down considerably once people actually have something tangible to respond to. The reason I bring this up is that in 2024 we saw several measures to reform election systems in states fail despite I think both in New York and more broadly, there has been polling that shows support for these in general or in the abstract. So I wonder, do you think about that at all when you're looking at this polling data and saying, well, maybe the, the public push for this just isn't strong enough yet? There actually isn't the necessary level of public support for this that could overcome some of the roadblocks that exist right now.

[John Ketchum]

Yeah. So there's a lot there. And I think the general trend is directionally right, that voters do support different electoral structures. They, for example, want to see more open and nonpartisan primaries. They want to have a third party party as a viable option. But when the rubber meets the road, many of these efforts fail at the ballot box. So as you say, last year we had seven states that were proposing ranked choice voting in various configurations and all the statewide measures to introduce RCV failed. Alaska narrowly retained its Final Four system of RCV plus all candidate primaries, but only after the pro RCV camp spent 100 to 1 compared to the repealers. So it was a very hard won victory and it was by no means a slam dunk. You saw purple and blue states also shoot down some of these ballot measures. States like Nevada, Arizona and Colorado. And entrenched interests often mobilize when these ballot measures are put on because they know that's their last line in the sand. And they can mobilize against these efforts. And these entrenched interests persist. They're always there. And reformers, they come and they go. Right. It's more of an ephemeral kind of phenomenon. So getting a reform passed is one thing. Keeping it durable is a totally different matter. And you're seeing that play out in Alaska. So whether or not the state will retain its Final four system remains to be seen in the long run. But for now it remains in place after that close victory. We'll be right back after this quick commercial break.

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[Will Kbach]

Zooming Back into New York City when you think about reformers, very tangible next steps, not thinking about the end goal, but necessarily what they need to do right now. What comes to mind? What are you most focused on? What are you most interested in?

[John Ketchum]

Well, what I was disheartened by recently was the Charter Revision Commission had consented putting primary reform on the ballot for November. That would have changed the New York City Charter to eliminate closed partisan primaries in favor of an all candidate primary that still used ranked choice voting to select the top two vote getters in this nonpartisan primary open to all candidates and open to all voters. And and the top two from that would have gone on to a general election runoff style in November. The reason we did not ultimately get that on the ballot was I believe in large part because the far left interest groups in New York City mobilized after Zoran Mamdani's primary win and they politicized the proposal as something that would prevent Mamdani's style victory from happening again in the future. That it was an attempt to thwart further far left efforts at the mayoralty. Of course, that ignores the fact that the Charter Revision Commission was working throughout the entire year on proposals that it had heard from innumerable New Yorkers on their frustration in not being able to vote if they were an unaffiliated voter. And and that to me is quite dispiriting because it's not every year that New Yorkers have a meaningful chance at reforming the party primary structure. And if you look at the results of the mayoral election, you can see that electoral reform really is needed here. I don't want to take away anything from Zoran Mamdani's win. It was a very well run campaign. It was a historic victory, but if you look at the underlying numbers, he won election 11% of the total registered voting base. So it's really just a sliver of a sliver. 11% of your total registered voters does not necessarily indicate a mandate for socialism. We will see how this plays out in the general election, which is indeed open to all voters. But of course that is not a ranked choice election and therefore is susceptible to spoiler effects.

[Will Kbach]

It's interesting to hear you describe that dynamic because in my mind I view somebody like Andrew Cuomo as maybe representative of this.

[John Ketchum]

Hey everybody, this is John, Executive Producer for Tangle. We hope you enjoyed this preview of our latest episode. If you are not currently a newsletter subscriber or a premium podcast subscriber and you are enjoying this content and would like to finish it, you can go to readtangle.com and sign up for a newsletter subscription. Or you can sign up for a podcast subscription or a bundled subscription which gets you both the podcast and the newsletter and unlocks the rest of this episode as well as ad free daily podcasts, more Friday editions, Sunday editions, bonus content, interviews and so much more. Most importantly, we just want to say thank you so much for your support. We're working hard to bring you much more content and more offerings, so stay tuned for the rest of the crew. This is John Law signing off Peace. Our Executive Editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul and our Executive Producer is John Law. Today's episode was edited and engineered by John Law. Our editorial staff is the led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will K. Back and Associate Editors Audrey Morehead Bailey saw Lindsay Knuth. Music for the podcast was produced by John Wall. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our [e-mail].

[Adam Grant]

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