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- [00:00]
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- [02:36]
John Law
From Executive Producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle.
- [02:51]
Will K. Back
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to The Tangle podcast, a place where you get views from across of the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of our take. I'm your host, senior editor Will K. Back. I'm filling in for Isaac today while he handles some childcare duties. Today we're going to be talking about Russia and NATO, particularly the recent Russian drone incursions into Poland and Romania and the NATO response and the response here in the US From President Donald Trump. Before we get into that, though, a quick note up front. You may know that Tangle has a nonprofit project that accepts charitable donations to fund our video content for the next generation of news consumers. This is an area that we're really investing in this year and in the years ahead. And one of our donors, whose name is Steve, is matching every donation up to $5,000. And he wants to encourage other Tangle supporters to join him to support this project of ours. And thanks to Steve, you can effectively double any donation you make to Tangle. But just for a limited time, you can make a one time or a monthly donation of any amount. $5, $50, $500 to ensure that tangle reaches today's young people. And if you start a monthly gift, all new gifts will be matched for the first year. Another note, your charitable gift is tax deductible. Thanks to our fiscal sponsor, journalism funding partners. We'll put a link to our GiveButter page where you can make that donation in today's show. Notes. And as always, we deeply appreciate all of your support. Thank you. All right, now I will send it over to John for our quick hits and today's main topic. Then I'll be back in a bit to read Isaac's take.
- [04:42]
John Law
Thanks, Will, and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, President Donald Trump announced that the US Military had struck a boat that he alleged was carrying illegal drugs from Venezuela to the United States, killing three. The strike was the second such military action against alleged Venezuelan drug smugglers in the last two weeks. Number two, the Israeli military launched a ground offensive in Gaza City. The military has not offered an expected timeline for the operation. Number three, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said that the United States and China had reached a framework for a deal on the future of the social media app TikTok. The announcement comes shortly before a deadline for the app to sell its U.S. operations or face a potential ban in the United States. Number four, the U.S. court of Appeals for the D.C. circuit barred President Trump from immediately firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The decision allows Cook to participate in the central bank's meeting this week, where it will vote on an interest rate cut. Separately, The Senate voted 48 to 47 to confirm Stephen Myron as a Federal Reserve governor. Myron will serve out the remainder of the term of Adriana Kugler, who resigned last month. And number five, Washington Post columnist Karen Attia said that she was fired by the outlet over a series of social media posts related to the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. The Washington Post declined to comment on her firing.
- [06:13]
Various Advertisers and Madison H.
For the second time in less than a week, Russian drones were spotted within NATO airspace, this time in Romania. On Saturday, the European Union called it a reckless escalation by the Kremlin, raising tensions and threatening security in Eastern Europe with weeks after Vladimir Putin, of course, had his high profile summit in Alaska with our president, and he was also in Beijing.
- [06:34]
John Law
On Saturday, Romania said that it had detected a Russian drone in its airspace during an air patrol mission. The Romanian military authorized its pilots to shoot down the drone, but they declined to do so due to potential collateral risks. The incident marks the second Russian incursion into a North Atlantic Treaty Organization or NATO countries airspace this month. On Wednesday, NATO warplanes shot down several Russian drones over Poland, prompting Poland to invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Russia has claimed that the violations were unintentional, but many European leaders have said the incidents have increased the chances of open conflict with Russia. For context, by invoking Article 4 on Wednesday, Poland brought NATO countries together to discuss Poland's security concerns. Article four is a step toward potentially invoking Article five, which considers an attack on one member an attack on all members, but does not necessarily lead to joint action. On Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rudde said that the alliance had discussed the incursion and denounced Russia's reckless behavior, adding that a full assessment of the incident is ongoing. On Sunday, Polish President Kirill Nawaraki signed a classified decree for a permanent NATO troop in Poland as part of NATO's new Eastern Sentry initiative in response to the drone incursions. Nawaraki called the airspace breaches an attempt to check the mechanism of action within NATO and our ability to react. Russian officials have sharply criticized NATO's response as escalatory and reaffirmed their claim that the incursions were accidental. The spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin also suggested that NATO was already de facto at war with Russia, given its military support of Ukraine. Separately, on Saturday, Russia conducted military training exercises in Belarus, simulating a battle against Western forces. The exercises led Poland to close its land and air border with Belarus and deploy 40,000 troops to its eastern border with while Lithuania and Latvia similarly closed their borders with Belarus. Russia last held these simulations in 2021 when they used the drills as cover to move troops closer to Ukraine ahead of an all out invasion in February 2022. Simultaneously, US President Donald Trump pressed NATO to increase economic pressure on Russia as he seeks a resolution to the war in Ukraine. On Saturday, Trump posted on Truth Social I am ready to do major sanctions on Russia when all NATO nations have agreed and and started to do the same thing and when all NATO nations stopped buying oil from Russia. As you know, NATO's commitment to win has been far less than 100%, and the purchase of Russian oil by some has been shocking. President Trump has also called on NATO members to raise tariffs on China for their ostensible support of Russia. Today we'll explore the latest moves by NATO in response to Russia's drone incursions with views from the right, left and righters abroad. And then Senior Editor Will Kabeck will read Isaac's tape.
- [09:34]
Isaac Saul
We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [09:40]
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- [10:13]
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- [10:46]
John Law
Alright, first up, let's start with some agreement. Commentators on the right and the left in the US and abroad see the drone incidents as a thinly veiled provocation by Russia. Many across the political spectrum also see this development as an alarming step toward a broader war in Europe. Alright, let's move on to what the right is saying. The right views the incursions as a clear provocation. Though some call for de escalation, others say Trump must respond firmly to send Putin a message. National Review's editor said Russia's Poland incursion was no drone accident. If the flight of up to 19 Russian drones into Polish territory was some sort of accident, claims to that effect from Moscow and its Belarusian surrogates have even by their standards, been unconvincing. It was one that was both large and very convenient. For some time now, Moscow has been waging nonlinear warfare against NATO actions ranging from sabotage to cyberattacks to smaller drone incursions. They fall below the threshold of war, as that term is usually understood, but go well beyond the jostling often seen between rival states or blocs that makes it vital that NATO responds to Moscow in a way that deters rather than encourages aggression. The drones were, along with Russia's intensifying onslaught on Ukraine, yet another reminder from the Kremlin that despite a relatively cordial meeting in Alaska and talk of peace talks, it remains determined to win its war with Ukraine. Those who support Kyiv will, in its view, have to deal with the consequences, the editor said. NATO's response, therefore must be firm and it should be focused on the political and the practical. The latter will bolster the former, the Washington examiner editorial board argued. NATO must punish Russia incursion with 10 mile air cordon Trump should reaffirm his commitment to NATO, an alliance that continues to serve Americans well. NATO should warn Russia and Belarus that that any unmanned drones in Ukrainian or Belarusian airspace within 10 miles of the Polish border may be shot down, the board wrote. NATO's deterrent purpose is designed for moments such as this. Poland is one of the most reliable American NATO allies at 4.7% of GDP. It spends the highest percentage of its GDP of any NATO member on defense. Recognizing this commitment and the heavy pro American sentiments across the Polish political spectrum, the US should be resolute in defending its eastern flank ally. Putin isn't simply testing NATO, he's also testing Trump. Putin has noticed Trump's oft stated concern that the Ukraine war might lead to World War 3 by dangling his drones over NATO's Article 5 Mutual Defense Security guarantee. Putin wants to see if Trump will put pressure on NATO and Ukraine to reduce tensions or, as he should impose costs on Russia for its new aggression. The board said Trump should teach Putin a Lesson, confident in NATO's present supremacy over Russia and the US military forces across the range of conflict, knowing the importance of the alliance for Western security, prosperity and freedom. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. Many on the left criticized NATO's and the Trump administration's response to Russia's actions as insufficient Others viewed this moment as a critical test for the alliance. In the Atlantic, Phillips Payson o' Brien wrote. Russia tested NATO In Poland, NATO flunked some of the world's most advanced military systems. Polish and Dutch fighters, German air defense equipment and Italian surveillance aircraft were activated to respond to the incursion, NATO officials said. But the episode is only the latest evidence of NATO states constant failure to accurately assess their security concerns and national interests, o' Brien said. Russian drones and missiles have strayed into Polish territory on previous occasions in the past few years with no consequence. Alliance members have not bothered to prepare properly for immediate threats, much less future war. Their constant weakness to this point has emboldened Putin to flagrantly violate NATO airspace while reinforcing the idea that member states have no idea how to look after their own security. A firm response to the incident would involve a promise by NATO to shoot down all future hostile drones in any member nation's airspace and a warning to Russia that if more drones appear in NATO airspace after traveling over Ukraine, then NATO can help Ukrainians with their national air defense, o' Brien wrote. Instead, we are witnessing a multinational failure, NATO states. Even those most immediately imperiled by Putin's expansionism lack the capabilities to deal with Russian warfare and and they have not understood the true strategic peril they are in. The Washington Post editorial board suggested Russia is probing NATO's resolve. The incursion comes as Putin is derailing Trump's attempts to make peace in Ukraine. Last month's summit in Anchorage was supposed to lead to Putin meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was willing to face his adversary. Trump then said he would pick a side in two weeks time. That deadline passed last Friday, the board said. On Wednesday, Trump posted glibly, what's with Russia violating Poland's airspace with drones? Here we go. That won't be enough to stop the Russian president, who understands how ambiguities drive wedges into alliances. When it came to Iran, Trump admirably enforced his deadline and took action against the regime's nuclear power. But he hasn't shown the same decisiveness against Putin. There are plenty of actions he can take short of war, the board wrote. Don't expect Trump to deploy more troops to Europe, but he could move additional battalions and equipment already on the continent into Poland as a show of support. NATO might even declare that it is ready to shoot down drones over Ukrainian airspace if they appear to be heading for the territory of any member country. Alright, that is it for what the right and the left are saying. Which brings us to what writers abroad are saying. Some writers say the incursion is a step in Putin's larger plan to destroy NATO. Others caution against an escalatory response to the drone incidents alone. In the Spectator, Sam Olsen asked, will NATO pass or fail Russia's greatest test? The timing is no accident. Only days earlier, Russian missiles struck buildings in Kyiv linked to Britain and the eu. It's all part of a campaign designed to test the ability of NATO to respond to Russian aggression and to respond in a way that doesn't destroy the alliance in the process, olson wrote. For Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is not the goal but the stepping stone. The true prize is the destruction of NATO and with it the collapse of the American led order that has underpinned Europe since 1945. Moscow has concluded that if the alliance can be fractured on its eastern flank, Washington's authority across the west will unravel. In turn, NATO's options are uncomfortably narrow. Sanctions are the default response, but Russia's economy, buoyed by oil, gas and Chinese and Indian trade, still bankrolls the war alliance. Air patrols are already underway over Poland and the Baltics, but they are ruinously expensive compared to the Russian drones they swat down. Olsson said Putin's purpose is to show that NATO is brittle, America is unreliable and the post war order hollow. Europe, meanwhile, still speaks of raising defense budgets to the required 5% at some point over the coming decade. The great test is here now in responsible statecraft, Anatol Levin argued Russian drones over Poland are no reason to panic and start a war. It seems unlikely that the handful of Russian drones that entered Polish airspace did so accidentally. There have been previous incidents, but they involved individual drones very close to the Ukrainian border. Yesterday there were over a dozen, Levin wrote. This was however, not an attack. None of the drones hit a significant target or seem to have been intended to do so. The Russian move was most likely intended as a warning to the European coalition of the willing to abandon its hopes of establishing a reassurance force in Ukraine. It was probably a warning to the US not to provide air cover or a backstop for such a force. We should remember that during the Cold War there were a number of far more serious violations of airspace by both sides, some of them leading to NATO planes being shot down and American and British airmen killed. Leaving said these incidents led not to threats of war, but careful attempts to de escalate tensions and develop ways to avoid such clashes. Alright, let's head over to Will for Isaac's take.
- [19:10]
Will K. Back
Thanks John. All right, let's dive into Isaac's take. Reminder. I'm Senior editor Will Kbach reading Isaac's take today while he's out. Throughout the last few years, a lot of hyperbolic commentators have warned about World War III breaking out because of the US's decision to support Ukraine. Typically, these predictions have come from critics of the us, who for some reason keep avoiding the topic of Vladimir Putin. This heterodox view, which has been popularized in America by the likes of Tucker Carlson and has been intermittently embraced by the Trump administration, is that Putin's push into Ukraine has been mischaracterized. And the thinking goes like Putin isn't really the bad guy. He's actually fighting a corrupt and duplicitous leader in Volodymyr Zelensky. He was responding to NATO aggression. Our decision to waste money, time and resources to defend Ukraine risks escalating the conflict and dragging us into a global war. This framing is attractive because it runs so counter to the mainstream consensus in the West. It's also popular because Western analysts have been so wrong and so steadfast in pushing war propaganda in recent decades. See the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But more than anything, this view of the war is a great example of how heterodoxy can be an ideology in and of itself, and how always refusing to buy the mainstream consensus can sometimes, or even often put you on the wrong side of the issues. Put simply, the mainstream view is often the mainstream view because it's broadly, generally directionally correct. This happens to be the case with Russia's war in Ukraine. Remember, we were warned that sending tanks to Ukraine would serve as an escalation that could spark World War iii. We were similarly warned about sending Ukraine Himars rocket launchers, the Patriot air defense Systems, cluster munitions, F16 fighter jets, and then long range missiles that could strike deeper into Russia. Each time Ukraine asked for these more advanced systems to protect itself, to stave off Putin, we were warned against providing them because doing so would lead to World War iii. Yet we sent them, often in a delayed fashion, but no actual repercussions came to pass. Instead, Russia just kept on fighting this stalemate war in the same manner it has since the beginning, with little regard for the lives of Ukrainians or its own soldiers. All this time, one truth has remained. The man behind the threat of World War three, the one whose reaction everyone is worried about, is Vladimir Putin. Putin is the one who invaded Ukraine. He is the one who can leave Ukraine. He is the one who believes Ukraine rightfully belongs to Russia and He is the one who can end the war any day by simply deciding he doesn't want another hundred thousand young Russians to die for territorial gains that at best are going to be tenuous and far short of Russia's initial aspirations. Instead, Putin is once again pushing the envelope now by prodding the borders of Poland. Once again. This is something European leaders and analysts across the mainstream landscape have been predicting. Academics, reporters and think tanks who cover Putin for a living have warned again and again that he will not stop at Ukraine, that he will test the boundaries of other post communist nations and continue to push for control of any country previously under the Soviet sphere of influence. He might not recreate the Warsaw Pact, but make no mistake, Poland is the next test. Putin wants to see how NATO will respond. He got a taste of it, and it probably wasn't that intimidating. Russia, naturally, is muddying the public waters and suggesting this is all just some big misunderstanding. We're supposed to believe that an accidental airspace incursion of 19 drones, some flying hundreds of miles, happened to only cross Ukraine into Poland, whose president is an outspoken critic of Putin, but not into Hungary or Slovakia, whose leaders have supported him. That's quite a coincidence, considering we have seen no evidence that these drones were knocked off course or lost or otherwise went anywhere they weren't intended to go. And they happened to end up in an area that triggered Article 4 and a large NATO military response. That's one heck of a technical error. I really don't think this is all that complicated. On the very, very slim chance that this was some kind of mistake. That doesn't make Poland's response an escalation, as Putin and Russia have suggested. Poland is entitled to its own defense and is right not to assume best intent. And Russia's incursion could have started a hot war with Poland. If it was simply an error, it would be a reminder of how reckless and in over his head Putin is. But again, it almost certainly was no accident. And again, Putin has telegraphed his intentions for years. He has long been committed to destabilizing NATO and the European Union. Of course, Russia doesn't have the military might to take on all of Europe. Consider it a struggle to make headway against just Ukraine. But Putin can try to fracture trust amongst the alliance by stress testing its defenses and forcing difficult decisions about the best response to Russian aggression. This aim has been apparent to many for years now. Trump seemed to enter the White House with the kind of delusional, heterodox view of Putin I described earlier. His administration was warned Otherwise by Zelenskyy. But instead of listening, they lambasted and isolated him, wasting months. Then they realized he was right. And now we're waiting to see what the US Is actually going to do moving forward. Trump has already let Putin blow past the deadline for a peace deal. And the only consequence Putin's faced has been Trump meagerly criticizing him to his followers. On Truth Now, Trump's urging NATO allies to join together for larger scale economic punishments. That may be a tough sell. But Putin playing chicken with the borders of NATO territory is a good way to get everyone's attention. To be clear, I'm not sitting here saber rattling for some kind of major US intervention. I'm the last person in the world who wants to see more war. But there already is a war. Putin started it. I am insisting that the world, especially Americans, look at what is happening in Europe with clear eyes. This has been the plot from the very beginning. Putin is not a person looking for an off ramp. He is not a leader whose ambitions stop at Kyiv. He is not someone who is worried about escalation. Putin is exactly who we thought he was. Now Trump and our NATO allies have a choice. They can step back. They can downplay the threat or convince themselves that this was some kind of innocent mistake, or keep making excuses for Putin. Or they can step up. They can beef up security across Europe, prepare for the absolute worst while hoping it doesn't come to pass, and exert maximum pressure on Putin to hunker down in Moscow and give up on his expansionist dreams. Maximum pressure can mean a major funding push for Ukraine, harsh sanctions, as much economic pain for Russia as possible, and responding to Putin's aggression with a show of unity and strength across the Atlantic and throughout Europe, NATO can make it clear that the next time a Russian drone enters a member country's airspace, there will be genuine repercussions. Then follow through. This war is now 3 and a half years old. Acting with constant fear of upsetting Putin or escalating or risking World War III has only enabled the man in question to continue doing all of those things himself on his terms. We can acknowledge that and act accordingly, or we can expect more of the same.
- [26:44]
Isaac Saul
We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [26:49]
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- [27:23]
John Law
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- [27:49]
John Law
Check it out@lemonade.com pet.
- [28:01]
Will K. Back
All right, that's it for Isaac's take. Now let's move on to a question from the Tangle community. This one comes from Robert in Lincoln, Nebraska. The basic idea of gerrymandering seems to be to dilute voters of the undesired party with the voters from the desired party. Instead of solidly blue and red districts, the result is either blue leaning or red leaning districts. But isn't there an inherent risk in doing this? The price gerrymanderers are paying is to dilute their own voters too. Have there been cases where this has backfired and did not lead to desired outcomes because the margins were too narrow? Here's our response. Actually, yes, there have been examples of gerrymandering backfiring, which is also known as a dummy mander. In 1990, Georgia Democrats held a 9 to 1 U.S. house seat distribution and tried to press their advantage after the state picked up an additional district following the 1990 census. Instead of gaining a 10 to 1 edge, they overreached, spreading their majority thinly across several districts, and they ended up with a 7. 4 distribution in 1992. That became a quasi permanent 3 to 8 advantage for Republicans starting in 1994. More recently, after the 2010 census, Republicans in control of the Pennsylvania state legislature packed Democrats into a few urban districts. Although this initially gave the GOP a13.5 advantage in US House seats, those gains would evaporate by 2018. Demographic changes led to Democrats making up ground and forcing a 9 to 9 tie in the House before the state court threw out the maps and and forced a redraw. Some other gerrymanders didn't backfire in the exact same way, but caused a legislative backlash, such as New York's gerrymandering failure in 2022. In that instance, Democrats tried to redraw their state's 26 districts for a maximum advantage following the 2020 census, even combining Republican leaning districts across the Long Island Sound into one. The state's Court of Appeals subsequently threw that map out, leading to a new map drawn by a court appointed special master and and Republicans ended up gaining three seats in 2022. Perhaps most interestingly, Texas proposed a mid decade gerrymander that led to a Democratic walkout in protest not this year, but in 2003. After passing their map, Republicans stretched their districts thin enough that Democrats forced Republicans to focus energy on tight races and ended up winning unexpected upsets in 2006, including a very symbolic victory in the district once held by former House Speaker Tom DeLay, who had led the gerrymandering push and then resigned amid an ethics scandal. All right, I am going to send it back over to John for the rest of the newsletter. Thanks again for listening. John back over to you.
- [30:51]
John Law
Thanks Will. Here's your under the Radar story for today folks. Recent polling from Gallup and Data for Progress indicates that likely Democratic voters are increasingly aligning themselves with with political candidates that embrace democratic socialism over capitalism. While capitalism's favorability among independents has also declined in recent years, socialism remains unpopular with this group and Republicans. For Democratic voters, however, politicians who identify themselves as Democratic socialists are viewed roughly as positively as those who just call themselves Democrats, and a majority say they prefer democratic socialism to capitalism when given the definitions of each. Politico has this story and there's a link in today's episode description alright, next up is our numbers section. Poland joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO in 1999. Romania joined NATO in 2004. Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty has been invoked eight times, including Poland's invocation on Wednesday, 2003 was the first time that Article 4 was invoked. Turkey asked the alliance to discuss defensive measures if the country faced a threat from the armed conflict in Iraq at the time. According to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, 19 Russian Drones and drone like objects violated Poland's airspace on Wednesday. The confirmed number of these drones that were shot down is three. Approximately 7,000 troops took part in Russia's military exercises in Belarus on Monday, and the length in miles of Poland's border with Belarus is 260. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. After her grandfather was nearly the victim of an online scam, Tejas Vivanoj set out to protect seniors from similar cybercrime schemes. Less than a year later, she built and launched Shield Seniors, a website that offers explainers on common types of scams, analyzes suspicious emails and messages, and provides resources to report potential scammers to. Just hopes that the effort will help equip seniors with the tools to identify these schemes, which frequently target people over the age of 60. Time recognized Hajasvi as its 2025 Kid of the Year, and you can check out more about her with a link in Today's Episode Description all right everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to retangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundle membership that gets you a discount on both. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'.
- [33:22]
Darina, Co-founder of OpenPhone
All.
- [33:23]
John Law
Peace.
- [33:25]
Isaac Saul
Our Executive Editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul and our Executive Producer is John Lowell. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will Kbach and Associate Editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead, Bailey Song, Lindsay Knuth and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@retangle.com.
- [34:03]
Boll & Branch Advertiser
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- [34:38]
Will K. Back
ACAST powers the world's best podcasts. Here's a show that we recommend. I'm Eden Share and I'm Brock Ciarlelli.
- [34:49]
Various Advertisers and Madison H.
We play best friends on the middle.
- [34:51]
Will K. Back
And became best friends in real life.
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Boll & Branch Advertiser
We're here to re watch the Middle.
- [34:54]
Various Advertisers and Madison H.
With all of you.
- [34:55]
Will K. Back
Each week we'll recap an episode with behind the scenes stories, guest interviews and what we think.
- [34:59]
John Law
Now, many years later, there's a lot.
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Various Advertisers and Madison H.
To dive into into. So let's get to middling.
- [35:11]
Will K. Back
ACAST helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast. Com.