Tangle Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast: Tangle
Episode: Putin sparks NATO outcry with drones entering Poland's airspace
Host: Will K. Back (filling in for Isaac Saul)
Date: September 16, 2025

Overview

This episode examines escalating tensions between Russia and NATO after multiple Russian drones entered the airspace of Poland and Romania—both NATO members—within a week. The discussion explores the implications for European security, NATO responses, and political reactions across the U.S. and Europe, culminating in Isaac Saul’s own analysis and perspective on the situation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background on Drone Incursions

• Incident Summary (06:34):

  • On Saturday, Romania reported a Russian drone entering its airspace; pilots declined to engage due to collateral risk.
  • Days earlier, up to 19 Russian drones entered Polish territory; several were shot down by NATO warplanes.
  • Poland invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty—a move for collective consultation, short of Article 5 (collective defense).
  • NATO’s Secretary General denounced the incursions as “reckless behavior,” initiating a full assessment.

• Military & Political Reactions:

  • Polish President Nawaraki signed a classified decree to station permanent NATO troops as part of the “Eastern Sentry” initiative.
  • Russian Officials: Called NATO’s response "escalatory," asserting the incursions were accidental.
  • Associated Events:
    • Russia ran major military exercises in Belarus simulating battles with Western forces, prompting Poland to close borders and deploy troops.

"Nawaraki called the airspace breaches an attempt to check the mechanism of action within NATO and our ability to react." (07:37, John Law)

2. U.S. and Trump Administration’s Position

• President Trump (08:45):
  • Urged NATO to increase sanctions and stop buying Russian oil.
  • Emphasized greater alliance unity and pressure on Russia, while criticizing some NATO members’ insufficient commitment.

"I am ready to do major sanctions on Russia when all NATO nations have agreed and started to do the same thing and when all NATO nations stopped buying oil from Russia." (08:54, quoting Trump)

• Wider U.S. & NATO policy context:
  • The U.S. and allies face the challenge of deterring further Russian provocation without escalating to direct conflict.

Views from Across the Political Spectrum

Right-Leaning Commentary

• Consensus:

  • The drone incursions are seen as deliberate provocations, not accidents.
  • Strong calls for NATO and U.S. firmness, with some urging President Trump to set a clear deterrent.

• Key Quotes & Arguments:

  • National Review:
    "If the flight of up to 19 Russian drones into Polish territory was some sort of accident, claims to that effect from Moscow ... have even by their standards been unconvincing. Moscow has been waging nonlinear warfare against NATO ... it is vital that NATO responds ... to deter rather than encourage aggression." (11:09)

  • Washington Examiner:
    Recommends a "10 mile air cordon" along the border, with a warning that any Russian drones will be shot down—a firm but calibrated response. Praises Poland's high defense spending and close ties to the U.S.

"Putin isn't simply testing NATO, he's also testing Trump . . . Putin wants to see if Trump will put pressure on NATO and Ukraine to reduce tensions or, as he should, impose costs on Russia . . ." (12:46, Washington Examiner editorial)

Left-Leaning Commentary

• Consensus:

  • Criticisms of the Trump administration and NATO for insufficient decisiveness.
  • Worry that repeated tolerance of Russian incursions undermines the alliance's credibility.

• Key Quotes & Arguments:

  • The Atlantic, Phillips Payson O’Brien:
    "Russian drones and missiles have strayed into Polish territory ... with no consequence. Alliance members have not bothered to prepare ... their constant weakness has emboldened Putin." (14:03)

  • Washington Post Editorial:
    Calls Putin’s actions a “probe of NATO’s resolve” and criticizes Trump for glib, ambiguous responses rather than clear deterrent measures.

"That won't be enough to stop the Russian president, who understands how ambiguities drive wedges into alliances." (15:44, Washington Post)

Writers Abroad

• Broader Geopolitical Context:

  • Some describe these provocations as part of Putin’s broader attempt to fracture or “destroy” NATO.
  • Others, while acknowledging the danger, caution against overreacting to drone events alone.

• Key Quotes & Arguments:

  • The Spectator, Sam Olsen:
    "For Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is not the goal but the stepping stone. The true prize is the destruction of NATO . . ." (16:27)

  • Responsible Statecraft, Anatol Levin:
    "We should remember that during the Cold War there were a number of far more serious violations ... not to threats of war, but careful attempts to de-escalate tensions." (17:50)

Isaac Saul’s Take (Read by Will K. Back, 19:09)

• Summary of Isaac’s Analysis:

  • Critiques the “heterodox” position popular on segments of the American right that blames NATO for escalation and minimizes Putin's agency.
  • Argues mainstream consensus is directionally correct: Putin is the aggressor, expanding beyond Ukraine, and the drone incidents are deliberate tests of NATO resolve.
  • Warns that repeated, over-cautious responses to avoid World War III have emboldened Russia.

• Notable Quotes:

  • "This framing is attractive because it runs so counter to the mainstream … But more than anything, this view of the war is a great example of how heterodoxy can be an ideology in and of itself … Put simply, the mainstream view is often … correct. This happens to be the case with Russia’s war in Ukraine." (19:47)
  • "The man behind the threat of World War III, the one whose reaction everyone is worried about, is Vladimir Putin. Putin is the one who invaded Ukraine ... He is the one who can end the war any day." (21:54)
  • "Trump has already let Putin blow past the deadline for a peace deal … The only consequence Putin’s faced has been Trump meagerly criticizing him to his followers on Truth … Putin playing chicken with the borders of NATO territory is a good way to get everyone’s attention." (24:40)
  • "I am insisting that the world, especially Americans, look at what is happening in Europe with clear eyes. This has been the plot from the very beginning. Putin is not a person looking for an off ramp . . . Putin is exactly who we thought he was. Now Trump and our NATO allies have a choice." (23:02)
  • "Maximum pressure can mean a major funding push for Ukraine, harsh sanctions . . . and responding to Putin's aggression with unity and strength. … Responding with constant fear of escalation has only enabled [Putin] to continue doing all these things on his terms." (25:20)

• Isaac’s Recommendations:

  • Do not downplay the deliberate nature of Russian provocations.
  • NATO and the U.S. must respond with unity and clear consequences.
  • Stronger support for Ukraine and clear deterrent responses are more stabilizing than over-caution.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Episode Start / Host Intro: 02:50
• Quick News Hits: 04:42
• Incident Overview & NATO Response: 06:34
• International Reactions & Escalation: 07:30 – 09:34
• Views from the Right: 10:45
• Views from the Left: 13:50
• Writers Abroad: 16:21
• Isaac’s Take: 19:09

Memorable Quotes

"Putin isn't simply testing NATO, he's also testing Trump… Putin wants to see if Trump will put pressure on NATO and Ukraine to reduce tensions or… impose costs on Russia."
— Washington Examiner Editorial Board (12:46)

"Russian drones and missiles have strayed into Polish territory … with no consequence. Alliance members have not bothered to prepare ... their constant weakness has emboldened Putin."
— Phillips Payson O’Brien, The Atlantic (14:03)

"This war is now 3 and a half years old. Acting with constant fear of upsetting Putin ... has only enabled the man in question to continue doing all of those things himself, on his terms."
— Isaac Saul’s Take (25:12)

Additional Topics

• Listener Q&A – Gerrymandering (28:01):
  A listener asks whether attempts to dilute opposing party voters via gerrymandering sometimes “backfire”—the episode provides historical examples from Georgia, Pennsylvania, New York, and Texas demonstrating that overzealous gerrymanders can indeed result in unexpected losses or court interventions.

• Under the Radar Story:
  Polling showing growing support for democratic socialism among likely Democratic voters in the U.S., even as socialism remains unpopular among independents and Republicans.

Tone and Language

The episode preserves Tangle’s signature non-partisan, analytical tone, foregrounding facts and highlighting arguments and critiques from across the ideological spectrum. Both the host and Isaac Saul emphasize evidence-based reasoning and critical scrutiny of political narratives, whether mainstream or heterodox.

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive, balanced look at the latest Russia-NATO escalation, including essential context, analysis from across the political spectrum, and a strong closing perspective advocating for clear-eyed realism and unity in the face of continued Russian aggression.